How to Win Hot Deals

hot, spicy, chili, pepper, deal

Two weeks ago, in an On Deck Angels workshop, one of our community members asked: “What do you recommend to do to increase access to allocation and top-performing deals?” To which I responded briefly with my belief that investors should always try to win their right on the cap table — whether it’s in the current round or the next. And, there are four ways to win that right:

  1. Go early.
  2. Being a valuable asset to the company.
  3. You are never too good to chase the best.
  4. Get to know the lead investor. Specifically, in their mind, be different.

As a footnote to all this, Founder Collective did a study a year or so ago where they found the 30 most valuable companies in the world raised half as much and were worth 4x the 30 most funded companies in the world. So, while hot rounds are great and all, there’s no telling that they’ll be the most valuable companies in ten, even five, years’ time. All that to say, I realize I’m writing this blogpost in a down market — likely only a few quarters of many more before we see the end of this recessionary period. The truth is, there are probably not as many hot rounds as there are before. But they still exist. And as an investor, you want to be ready for when that happens. While you set yourself up to have a prepared mind for getting picked, focus on picking.

To take a deeper dive on getting picked…

Just like it’s important for a founder to find product-market fit, it’s equally as important for an investor to find investor-market fit. Think of your check or your vehicle as a product in and of itself. As an investor, you are either great at picking or great at getting picked or both. For the purpose of responding to the above question, I’ll focus on the latter — getting picked.

It’s a three-sided marketplace where your customers are your LPs, founders, and your co-investors. Of all the above, to be fair, LPs loving you doesn’t necessarily get you better access to deals, so we’ll save that discussion for another day. And while there are many factors to getting picked, it boils down to two things:

  1. Founders love you
  2. Co-investors love you

In both scenarios, you get proprietary access to deals. As Sapphire’s Beezer said, “‘proprietary deal flow’ is not really a thing.” Proprietary access, on the other hand, is a thing.

Lenny Rachitsky and Yuriy Timen put out a great piece on activation rates recently. In it, there’s one line I particularly like, when they defined the activation metric:

“Your activation milestone (often referred to as your ‘aha moment’) is the earliest point in your onboarding flow that, by showing your product’s value, is predictive of long-term retention.”

The product, your fund or check. Retention, how likely they are to keep you on their speed dial (for a particular topic or function). And there are two distinct qualities of a great activation metric: “highly predictable” and “highly actionable.”

  • Highly predictable: The founders know exactly what they can get from you. The value you give isn’t vague, like “we invest in the best early-stage founders.” a16z can afford to say that. You can’t.
  • Highly actionable: Knowing what value founders can get from you, they know the exact types of questions to ask you to best extract that value.

The earlier you are in your investing journey, the more obvious you should make the above.

Taking the product analogy in stride, how do you get to a point where your customers get to your activation milestone? Where they form a new habit around keeping you top of mind?

How do you get founders to love you?

In my mind, there are two ways we can measure if founders love you:

  1. For founders you’ve invested in: If they answer with your name to “If you were to start a new company, who are the first three investors you would bring back to your cap table?”
  2. For founders you haven’t invested in: You get (great) deal flow from founders you passed on.

Tactically, in combination with being predictable and having your value be actionable…

Go early. Be the first check in when they’re still non-obvious. This of course requires a combination of luck and conviction. The latter is more predictable than the first. Be bullish when others are bearish.

Being a valuable asset to the company. Founders have 2 jobs: (a) make money and (b) hire people to make money. As an investor, everything you do is directly or indirectly involved in that. Also, when a founder fundraises, I would ask them what they plan to do with that money (i.e. hire VPs, more engineers, scale to X # of customers), and see if you can be preemptively helpful there.

You are never too good to chase the best. This is something that I picked up from a Pat Grady video some long while back. But to win the best deals, you go to where the founders are, don’t expect them to come to you. That’s how Sarah Guo, Pat’s wife, won a lot of deals that Sequoia wanted to get into.

How do you get co-investors to love you?

The best way to measure this is your co-investors proactively invite you to invest in future deals together.

The best way to get there is to:

Get to know the lead investor. Specifically, in their mind, be different.

Their lead investor might have a large portfolio where they can’t be as helpful to every investment they make. Try to squeeze in the round and be insanely helpful to their/your portfolio. And over time, as you co-invest in more deals, they’ll keep you top of mind for future ones.

For this one, it pays not to be generalist. I don’t mean as a function of industry but as a function of how you add value to your portfolio. Someone who can do everything is less desirable than someone who is really good at just one thing. Say, hiring executives or getting FDA approval or generating PR buzz. Interestingly enough, responsiveness is also a differentiator. I heard an investor say recently that the value of an investor is determined not by what happens during the meeting, but in between meetings. And I completely agree. The cap table doesn’t need another investor. The cap table needs people who will increase the chances of the company’s multi-billion dollar outcome.

The takeaway here is to not be better, but to be different. People can’t tell better, but they can tell different. That’s why the word differentiated is used so much. Have a differentiated approach. Have a diversified portfolio. On the other hand, having a better generalist strategy than a16z or Sequoia is hard to measure. While it may be true in the long run, better is difficult to measure in foresight, but obvious in hindsight. Just like product-market fit. Hard to pinpoint in the windshield, but obvious in the rearview mirror. It’s better to be the in a pool of one than a pool of many. Be the one CEO coach. Be the one who helps founders build robust communities. Or, be something that no one expects. Like Charlie Munger, be the best 30 second mind in the world.

Another reason I left this in the co-investor love section is that while being different does help you stand out to founders, there seems to be a lot more logo chasing from founders. Differentiation, unfortunately, falls short of brand recognition. I genuinely hope that this does change in the next few quarters.

In closing

While the question that inspired this blogpost is meant for hot rounds, the same holds for just being a great investor. One thing I’ve told many applicants to On Deck Angels is that we look for folks who are excited about putting investor on their resume and is willing to put in the legwork to become a great investor. The above is one of many paths to become one.

Arguably the above is how to be a great champion of people. The investor part comes with luck and having an eye for great talent, ideally before others. Betting on the non-obvious before they become obvious.

The best startup investors are disciplined and constantly learning. Some might argue that they may not have the time to entertain hot startups in general. Or at least startups when they are hot.

Photo by Pickled Stardust on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *