Month: March 2020

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#unfiltered #6 The Quantum State of Advice – The Marriage of the Schrödinger Equation and Cold Emails

quantum, schrodinger's cat, advice
Photo by Danilo Raphael Reyes on Unsplash

“The rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

– Warren Buffett

Although Mr. Buffett said that in relation to business, I find it equally true everywhere else. Just like the rearview mirror and the windshield, I want to denote the dichotomy between feedback and advice.

  • Feedback – given post-mortem, after-the-fact, help after peering into the rearview mirror
  • Advice – given “pre-mortem” or in an ad-hoc sense, help offered proactively, looking through the windshield.

As this title suggests, for this post, I’ll just be focusing on advice. And well, that may be as profound as this post will get, the rest is just a trip down my nerdy shower thoughts after watching this video about parallel worlds my equally nerdy friend sent me.

You have been warned…

The world right now

Well, you see, I work in an industry that thrives off of giving advice. Especially in these trying times when businesses are not only trying not to lay off their staff, many are working around how to stay afloat. My friends in culinary projected a 50% decline in occupancy rate, but at this point, have shifted entirely to to-go options and lowered their own salaries anywhere from 35% to 100%. My pals in D2C (direct-to-consumer), transportation, or travel have been punched in the gut. And, my entrepreneurial buddies are doubling down on cash preservation, rather than growth. The rule of thumb we’re telling founders to have at least as much runway to weather the next 18 months. So if that requires pushing up your fundraising schedule, then time to re-prioritize.

The nerd comes out

But after decades worth of receiving advice and years worth of giving advice, I learned something that seems like a no-brainer now. You see, the thing is advice is both right and wrong simultaneously. You can say it’s in a superposition of being right and wrong… at least until that advice is observed by its subsequent application and result.

Let’s take it a step further. Can we predict the probabilistic effect of advice on a given situation? Sure. So, let’s take a look at the Schrödinger equation.

Image result for schrodinger equation

There’s a few elements that stand out. |Ψ(t)> denotes a time-dependent function. And, H(t) denotes the sum of the kinetic and potential energies for all the particles in the system. In relevance with advice, the timeliness ( |Ψ(t)> ) of the advice matters – in relation to both where you are now and where you’re heading. The eigenvector of you. At the same time, it’s important to factor in your velocity now and everyone and everything else’s involved in the situation.

You might be wondering how come I didn’t analogize to the classical mechanics version of this equation: F=ma. Excellent observation! The reason is that the classical mechanics version doesn’t account for wave-like probabilistic outcomes. And advice and its relative observation by application doesn’t have a guaranteed outcome. Rather, it plays a hand in either increasing or decreasing the outcome of an event.

Here’s an example

One of the first lessons I learned, if not the very first piece of advice I got, when learning about ‘Cold Emails 101’ was:

“Limit your email to 3-5 sentences.”

Makes sense. I didn’t want to bombard the person I was reaching out to. I want to make it easy for them to read and reply to. But over the years, I learned that the real answer to email length is ‘It depends’. If you’re reaching out to someone who:

  • already has a lot of clutter in his/her inbox,
  • has expressed disdain or annoyance in reading emails,
  • doesn’t check his/her inbox often,
  • has a succinct personality (person-of-few-words),
  • or anything else that suggests they’re not going to bother with a long email,

… then send the 3-5 sentences. But if that person:

  • wants to see that you’ve spent your time doing your diligence (not a generic spray-and-pray email),
  • has a more extreme sense of self-worth,
  • is curious/open to flushed-out new ideas/perspectives,
  • enjoys a tale,
  • is a comedian,
  • or anything to suggest that a longer email may stand out to them,

… then craft a longer message. I was able to get in touch with some of the people I really admire by crafting lengthier emails. That said, there’s always a bit more nuance in all of this. Here’s a piece I wrote last year that may provide some context. And this is only probabilistically higher, holding all other variables constant.

Even so, there’s always more than two options. DM them on their most active social media platform. Get an intro. Send them meaningful content. Send a hand-written note by messenger hawk. Visit them in person, without unwanted trespassing. Go viral by making a lollipop with their face on it. Buy an extrasolar star and name it after them. The list is endless.

In sum, the advice of limiting the verbage of your emails is right and wrong at the same time. It merely depends on where the person you’re reaching out to is at and where they might be headed, as well as your own goals in life. And of course, as with any advice, limiting your sentences may boost or detract from the likelihood of a reply.

The disclaimer

As is the nature of an analogy, it breaks down when you get more granular. I should mention that I’m no astrophysicist (dealing with the macro) nor am I a quantum physicist (the micro). And I’m sure if any relevant occupation were to look into my analogy, there’d be tons of holes. I am merely a peripheral enthusiast.

quantum advice
My scribbles on paper which turned into this post.

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups!

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Brand as a Moat

startup brand, moat, defense, defensibility
Photo by Keith Johnston on Unsplash

What is the underlying notion that makes this product work?

It’s the question that almost every investor, especially early-stage startup investor, tries to answer when they’re entertaining potential investments. Some close cousins include:

  • What social, economic, or political trend is enabling this technology/business to work?
  • Why will people want to continue using this product? Consciously? Subconsciously? How much will they regret not being able to use this product?
  • Why is this idea crazy good, and not just crazy?
  • Is there a predictable road to traction? Product-market fit? $1M ARR? etc.
  • Is this a scalable business?

Needless to say, when I chat with founders, their business’s defensibility often comes up. Every business – small or large – needs to be defensible. Grandma’s cookies are just that good ’cause of that ‘secret’ brown butter element. Or Sally’s lemonade stand sells better than her neighbor’s down the street since she can keep her drinks cool for longer. Just like every good medieval castle has a moat, possibly filled with alligators, every good business has to have that one (or many) unfair advantage, as they call it in B-school. Not that I ever went, but I’ve heard from friends and professors who have. And this is even more true if you want to build a scalable business.

Those who have gone generally claim that their moat is their experience at X Fortune 500 company. Those who have a technical background often claim that their moat is their IP – patents owned and pending. Neither are wrong. And frankly, there are a multitude of factors that come into play when arguing for a business’s defensibility. And most of the times, it’s a permutation of the above and more. But the purpose of this post is to focus on an often discounted notion of brand as a moat. Both the company brand and the personal brand.

Disclaimer:

I should mention that before you even consider your business’s defensibility, and subsequently, brand, first, make a damn good product. I’ve seen too many founders take that leap of faith before they even have a product. They pitch the dream of them making a better world – the company vision – before they even figure out the first steps they need to take to get there.

The only ‘exception’ to this rule, at least from a fundraising and pre-PMF perspective, is if you have an amazingly robust personal brand. Though that may help with early traction, it won’t be enough to sustain a scalable business in the long run.

The startup brand

Your startup’s brand is a collective composed of the:

  • Company mission,
  • Company vision,
  • Internal culture,
  • And, the openness and responsiveness of the team.

The vision is that ultimate dream. The mission is what you’ll do now to get to that dream. Back in college, someone I really respect put it to me like this:

“The vision is the Sun. The mission is that ladder up. You can’t get to the Sun without building a ladder. If you only stare at it, you’ll eventually blind yourself. And if you just build a ladder, or else you might up on Mars instead, poorly equipped to survive there.”

Culture is something that you can set at the beginning, but know it’ll be an evolving beast with every new hire and every new incident. What you let happen defines the new culture. Although I share my thoughts in a post earlier this year, Ben Horowitz puts it into a much better perspective in his book, What You Do is Who You Are: How to Create your Business Culture. Quite a story-filled read, especially when you’re looking for something to do at home now.

And, the above three culminates into how your team acts.

  • Do your current customers/users feel like their concerns are either addressed or at least, valued?
  • Do they feel they are a valued member of your community?
  • What is your customer satisfaction rate? NPS score?
  • How do you prioritize and act on customer feedback?
  • Are your users engaged? How do you reengage them, if they become inactive?
  • For apps, what are they saying on the App Store/Play Store?
  • And, how are new customers hearing about your product? What do they hear? What are their explicit and implicit assumptions when using your product?

Why it Matters

Together the 4 elements answer the fundamental questions:

  1. Why would a potentially great customer want to use your product?
  2. Why would a potentially great hire want to join your company?

In the past few months, many VCs have been shifting their investment focus from consumer and towards enterprise/SaaS. There’s the argument that consumers are (1) more expensive to acquire (increasing CAC; the average number of apps a person downloads a day is zero), and (2) harder to retain. (For a more in-depth explanation, I would recommend you to check out the “Consumer App Conundrum” section here.) Aka, it’s more competitive than ever in the consumer markets. When we get closer to perfect competition over a saturated market seeking attention, having a great product just isn’t enough anymore. When some of the most active and vocal consumers happen to be people on the younger spectrum (millennials and Gen Zs), to fight for their attention, you need a brand that resonates with them on causes they care about – whether it’s diversity or climate change or another social cause.

We see this notion affecting two other verticals: the public sector and enterprise.

  • The privatization of X (let X be education, healthcare, transportation, etc. for all that were empirically public sector functions)
  • The consumerization of enterprise

For the purpose of this piece, let’s look at the consumerization of enterprise. What does that mean? Before enterprise sales worked from a top-down approach. A founder of an enterprise/SaaS startup pitches to a senior executive at a Fortune 500 (or similar) company. And the executive makes the call and the budget allocation towards their team’s usage of said product.

Now, many startups/companies, like Slack, Trello, Lever, and Soapbox, are taking the bottom-up approach, garnering brand loyalty among the people who will be/are using the product itself. And I predict that’ll be so in the near future for Superhuman, the fastest email client, and Woven, my favorite calendar app, as well. After all, progress happens at the most junior level. If you take it in relation to a tech startup of 200 in its growth phase, the founders or executives can make a plan and set deadlines. But if your most junior developer isn’t working on it, the whole business halts to a stop. All this makes me quite bullish on products in the low-code/no-code space, as well as in towards the future of work.

Moreover, this has led enterprise products to be heavily personalized, constantly updating, and has paved the way to multi-modal business models (i.e. subscription and pay-per-use). All this maximizes user satisfaction, which in turn affects their productivity, and transitively, the business flow.

Although the job market looks wildly different now than it did 3 months ago, when I assume the average founder is looking for cash preservation over growth, you still should be cognizant about the latter going forward.

Your Personal Brand

Your personal brand as a founder, or just as a professional, really matters. If you are a founder or thinking about becoming one, start building a public voice. Get people excited about you and what you’re all about.

Why?

Personal brands are extremely scalable and have built-in virality. You put one post out. Some percent of your followers engage with your content by liking or commenting. Then either by social media’s algorithms or by their innate excitement, they’ll share your content with their friends. Subsequently, new folks discover you and your content. And this becomes a virtuous loop, or network effects, as we call it, that helps get you scalable traction. This is why celebrities, like Dr. Dre and Maisie Williams, and their ventures garner quite a bit of traction among consumers and among investors. This is also why influencer marketing has been so bullish over the past few years.

At some point in your company’s lifespan, your personal brand will become the company brand. And that’ll become either shining beacon or the downfall of your company. More than just the followers you have on social media and in public, you are judged by everyone constantly on your aptitude and behaviors. How open, conscientious, agreeable, extroverted, and neurotic are you? (Yes, I took the 5 traits from the Big 5/OCEAN test.) Each and more have an impact on your personal brand. If we look at the culture behind Facebook, we see how large of an imprint Zuckerberg has on it. For Apple, Jobs.

In closing

The best thing about brands as a moat is that it’s effectively free! But both take years of work in building. As someone on the investing side, I love stellar brands. And it’s one of the elements of a business I weigh heavily on for its potentiality in network effects, summarized in the “Why you?” component of my NTY investment thesis (why Now, why This, why You).

Hmmmm, now thinking about it, personal brand may be the biggest reason I’ve been changing my handwashing habits in the past week… after watching Gordon Ramsay, Alton Brown, and Conan O’Brien‘s tutorials on it.

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#unfiltered #5 The Insider “Silicon Valley” TV Show – The Show, plus Thoughts on Eccentric Cold Emails and Crazy Startup Pitches

Tech satire.

I gotta say I love it! Memes. GIFS. YouTube vids. TikTok clips. The whole nine yards.

As a testament to how much I love satirical memes and GIFs, six years ago, when I was testing out “best” cold email methods, as a semi-random A/B test, I emailed half of the folks I reached out to, leading or ending with either a meme or GIF. The list ranged from authors to musicians to researchers to Fortune 500 executives to founders to professional stone skippers. And the results weren’t half bad. Out of 150 odd emails, about a 70% response rate. Half of which resulted in a follow-up exchange by email, call, or in-person. The other half were gracious enough to say time was not on their side.

So when I learned, from the most recent episode of Angel podcast, about David Cowan’s version, I just had to check it out. And I wish I had only discovered it sooner. Made by Director Martin Sweeney, and co-visionaries, Michael Fertik of Reputation.com and David Cowan of Bessemer Venture Partners, bubbleproof is tech hilarity… made by the folks who have tech day jobs. Though I still haven’t watched the 6 seasons and 53 episodes of the Silicon Valley TV series yet. Sorry, friends who keep recommending it.

I just finished episode 5, where they share a snapshot of comedic ideas and pitches – from lipid fuel technology to an Airbnb marketplace for prisoners. And not gonna lie, I had a good chuckle. But when the episode wrapped up and I finally had a chance to think in retrospect, those ideas could have been real pitches in some world out there. When I first started in venture, I met with my share of cancer cures predicated off of a happiness matrix and feces fuel and African gold brokers. In case you’re wondering, yes, I did get pitched those. The last one admittedly should have come through my spam folder.

In these next few weeks, while you’re WFH (work from home), if you’re curious about tech from the ironic perspective of those who live and breathe it every day, check the series out. Only 10 episodes. 7-15 minutes per. (And while you do that, maybe I’ll finally get around to watching Silicon Valley. But no promises.)

As a footnote, Bessemer also has a track record for being forthcoming and intellectually honest. I would highly recommend checking out their anti portfolio, that lists and explains not their biggest wins or losses, but their biggest ‘shoulda-coulda-woulda’s’.

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups!

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#unfiltered #4 Namedropping and Intros – Why my default is to not to namedrop, Direct/Indirect Consequences, Making/Receiving Intros, and Notes on Friendship

namedropping and intros, fame
Photo by Einar H. Reynis on Unsplash

One of my buds asked me over the weekend why I often don’t namedrop, mostly in respect to this blog. Well, other than the quotes I use that already exist somewhere on the Interweb. It’s not the first time I’ve been asked about namedropping. And I usually my TL;DR response is that I want to respect their privacy and time.

My longer answer is a bit more nuanced. Here are my reasons to why:

  1. If I’m true to my emotions, I would love to namedrop at every opportunity I get. Given that some of the folks that inspire me to write specific pieces are echelons above me, it would help me get exponentially more traffic. And for a minute, I can convince myself that people come to my site for the content. Yet, in reality, there are confounding variables, part of which is whom I’m rubbing my shoulders with.
  2. Although I tell them during our conversation, I send my pieces to the people who inspire me retroactively. In receiving feedback, if existent, after I publish my thoughts, I can truly give a play-by-play cross section of my thoughts at any given time. If I believe the feedback/advice is pertinent, I will compound upon the advice in a future post. After I publish the pieces, if they want to be associated with it, they can, which leads to my third point.
  3. Fame is a fickle thing – a double-edged sword. I’m not saying my blog currently has millions of views every month, nor am I projecting that it’ll ever. Would be nice, but not a priority. But since I do write on a public blog which can be found via various search engines and browsers out there, I am cautious and respectful of people’s comfort levels in the face of the public eye. So, before they decide to have their names on my blog, I send them this incredibly intricate piece Tim Ferriss wrote about fame. On the bright side, social recognition, the opportunity to take on bigger projects, the ability to mingle with people of a similar or greater popularity, and more. On the flip side, stalkers, harassment, extortion, death threats and so on. In understanding the “disclaimers”, then I retroactively put their name up.

Because of these reasons, I’m also, to my friend’s credit, testing the question: Are these people real? The supposed elephant in the room. No matter how much I plead my case, there’s little I can do to convince you these individuals are real. I don’t host a podcast (although I may in the future), nor do I ask them to post on their social media about my content. If you don’t believe they are, they aren’t. If you do, I thank you for your confidence in me. And that’s all I can really say to that question.

Outside of the blog, I try not to namedrop, unless it becomes impossible to explain a conversation topic without using their name. I’ve had such cases before that upon using X person’s name, friends, family, coworkers, and/or acquaintances implore an introduction. After all, as my job entails, I live off of introductions. I live and breathe in a relationship-based industry. And because I do, I’d like to say I have a deep understanding with the value, as well as the risks, a person needs to take:

  • to make an introduction (which I brief in this piece),
  • but also, to receive an introduction.

The person making it is risking social capital, or in other words, their reputation. The person receiving it is risking time (and effort) allocation. And when you’re punching above your weight class, the person receiving it has to weigh the opportunity cost of taking an intro versus the projects they’re currently undertaking, as well as prioritizing a new contact over their existing network. If I do make an intro, I always shoot for a double opt-in, where both sides agree to it.

Early last year, I heard something I don’t know why it didn’t click sooner. As part of the Crazy Gremlin (CG) (long-story short, we couldn’t think of a better name) event series which I help co-host, we get in-person feedback with each and every attendee. Why? We can dig deeper than we can with survey forms, like:

  1. Understand the deeper emotional spectrum,
  2. Ask pertinent follow-up questions,
  3. And, notice macro- and micro-gestures that’ll supplement how forthcoming their answers are (i.e. Does a “9” on the NPS question really mean a “9”?).

For context, the thesis behind CG events is helping strangers become life-long friends overnight.

In that feedback process, one of our attendees told me: “I’m never going to come to your events again.”

I asked, “Why do you say that?”, assuming that we did something terribly wrong.

“You guys didn’t do anything wrong. In fact, you held a better event than I imagined. But in coming to the last event, I realized I would rather prioritize my current close friends than spend time meeting new people, whom I don’t know if I’ll catch up with later.”

He made me realize that:

  1. We failed at bringing people closer together, fundamentally being comfortable with being vulnerable, at that event.
  2. There’s a giant population of folks out there who say they want a social life and to meet new people. But what they really mean is that they’re still looking for that friend or group of friends with whom they can really truly be themselves with.

To this day, I don’t think namedropping or making intros when only one party could benefit is conducive to lasting friendships. So, although it makes me giddy, and you can argue, in a myopically-beneficial sense, I proceed cautiously.

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups!

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#unfiltered #3 Plan Bs – Should we have them?

I woke up today with a thought that’s been gnawing at me for years now. Why do we have backup plans – Plan Bs, Plan Cs, etc? Does it inhibit our drive? Or readily prepare us for the worst? At what point are we sacrificing our commitment for safety?

When I started this blog, my writing mentor recommended that I have 10 pieces written and ready before I launch my blog. And I did exactly that. All cards out, I still have 8 of my pieces saved in my backlogs, which as you have already deducted, I’ve used 2 of my pieces already. Why? My mentor told me that, in my commitment to publish content weekly, I will indubitably have dry spells – dry weeks. And I did… twice. So, I regressed to my lowest common denominator and pulled something out of my archives. But during those two weeks, it helped me stay in my comfort zone. That instead of fighting writer’s block (if such a thing exists), I chose to run from it.

Part of the reason I started this #unfiltered series is to help me be content with content. I am guilty of 8/10 times second-guessing my way out of doing something. If I contemplate over something long enough, I’ll realize fears that I never thought possible, and opt for the safer option – not doing it at all.

From when we were young, we’re taught to always prepare backup options. When applying to colleges, we’re told to apply to our 2-3 reach schools, and 10-15 other schools we’re confident about getting into. When applying to jobs, one of my hometown neighbors, 2 years my senior, advised me to apply to 200 jobs, expect 10-20 interviews, another 3-5 for final rounds, and 1-2 offers to choose from. Effectively, asking me to apply to 198 backup alternatives.

I get it. As the saying goes, beggars can’t be choosers. Both high school and my early years of college have drilled that saying into me – by my peers and by my teachers.

A part of me hates it, but a part of me realizes the truth in there. I saw that circumstances played an even larger role for my friends and peers who:

  • are going through tough times in this pandemic and economic downturn,
  • (whose) parents came from a lower income bracket,
  • are POC (people of color),
  • are female,
  • are/were open about their different sexual orientations,
  • didn’t graduate from a 4-year college,
  • lost limbs or appendages due to accidents or conflict,
  • are/were in debt,
  • and much more.

Half a decade back when I set out to meet one new person that drew my insatiable curiosity a week, I realized I’m a goddamn privileged person living in the 21st century. I’m a perfectly healthy, heterosexual Asian male who graduated from a 4-year university. If all hell breaks loose and my net worth goes to absolute zero, I have my parents’ home to go back to and a room and bed to call my own. And as a full disclaimer, the fact I’m contemplating this question in the first place means I’m privileged enough to do so.

And because I’ve had the liberty to do so, I realized that my greatest personal achievements came from when I didn’t give myself the option of a Plan B. For the people I reached out to and am in touch with above my weight class, I either have given it my all or was prepared to do so. For swimming, I treated each competition as my last, meaning I either gave it my all or nothing. And during more nights than I can count, I beat myself up over my inability to reach a milestone.

Yet, now in the land of venture, we learn to hedge our bets and come up with contingency plans. We learn once again to diversify our portfolio, and not put all eggs in one basket. Does that lead to why many investors fundamentally don’t have the conviction to lead deals?

On the founding side, you have it almost flipped. When you are trying to make ends meet, there will be times you have to take that one option and go all in. And you can’t let go until you do everything you can to make it a reality. When you sit in a position of privilege, you can have several contingency plans to hedge your bets. Ben Horowitz, author, founder, and investor, illustrated the dichotomy in his piece (and one of my favorites) about peacetime and wartime CEOs. There’s a part of me that strives to find that sense of urgency, like a wartime CEO. And go all in. Maybe this pandemic is the test where I can find where my values really lie.

To be frank, I haven’t come up with a conclusion to the dilemma. For now, I can only hypothesis-test and keep good track of the data that comes my way. But, so far, I can say that one’s tolerance for risk is positively correlated with one’s free cash flow.

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups!

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A Small Nuance with Early Growth Numbers

startup growth
Photo by Ales Me on Unsplash

My friend, Rouhin, sent me this post by a rather angry fellow, which he and I both had a good chuckle out of, yesterday about how VC is a scam. In one part about startup growth, the author writes that VCs only care about businesses that double its customer base.

The author’s argument isn’t completely unfounded. And it’s something that’s given the industry as a whole a bad rap. True, growth and scalability are vital to us. That’s how funds make back their capital and then some. With the changing landscape making it harder to discern the signal from the noise, VCs are looking for moonshots. The earlier the stage, the more this ROI multiple matters. Ranging from 100x in capital allocation before the seed stage to 10x when growth capital is involved. But in a more nuanced manner, investors care not just about “doubling”, unilaterally, but the last time a business doubles. We care less if a lemonade stand doubles from 2 to 4 customers, than when a lemonade corporation doubles from 200 to 400 million customers, or rather bottles, for a more accurate metric.

After early startup growth

Of course, in a utopia, no businesses ever plateau in its logistical curve – best described as it nears its total TAM. That’s why businesses past Series B, into growth, start looking into adjacent markets to capitalize on. For example, Reid Hoffman‘s, co-founder of LinkedIn, now investor at Greylock, rule of thumb for breaking down your budget (arguably effort as well) once you reach that stage is:

  • 70% core business
  • 20% business expansion – adjacent markets that your team can tackle with your existing resources/product
  • 10% venture bets – product offerings/features that will benefit your core product in the longer run

And, the goal is to convert venture bets into expansionary projects, and expansionary projects to your core business.

Simply put, as VCs, we care about growth rates after a certain threshold. That threshold varies per firm, per individual. If it’s a consumer app, it could be 1,000 users or 10,000 users. And only after that threshold, do we entertain the Rule of 40, or the minimum growth of 30% MoM. Realistically, most scalable businesses won’t be growing astronomically from D1. (Though if you are, we need to talk!) The J-curve, or hockey stick curve, is what we find most of the time.

The Metrics

In a broader scope, at the early stage, before the critical point, I’m less concerned with you doubling your user base or revenue, but the time it takes for your business to double every single time.

From a strictly acquisition perspective, take day 1 (D1) of your launch as the principal number. Run on a logarithmic base 2 regression, how much time does it take for your users (or revenue) to double? Is your growth factor nearing 1.0, meaning your growth is slowing and your adoption curve is potentially going to plateau?

Growth Factor = Δ(# of new users today)/Δ(# of new users yesterday) > 1.0

Why 1.0? It suggests that you could be nearing an inflection point when your exponential graph start flattening out. Or if you’re already at 1.0 or less, you’re not growing as “exponentially” as you would like, unless you change strategies. Similarly, investors are looking for:

ΔGrowth Factor > 0

Feel to replace the base log function with any other base, as the fundamentals still hold. For example, base 10, if you’re calculating how long it takes you to 10x. Under the same assumptions, you can track your early interest pre-traction, via a waitlist signup, similarly.

While in this new pandemic climate (which we can admittedly also evaluate from a growth standpoint), juggernauts are forced to take a step back and reevaluate their options, including their workforce, providing new opportunities and fresh eyes on the gig economy, future of work, delivery services, telehealth, and more. Stay safe, and stay cracking!

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#unfiltered #2 Culinary Tips – Cook vs. Chef vs. Flavor Mad Scientist- The Carbs, the Proteins, and the Whole Spectrum

unfiltered vc, cooking tips
Photo by Calum Lewis on Unsplash

As a result of my love for food, and eating out, honestly, a bit too much, what started as engaging conversations with chefs at some of my restaurants, and eventually chefs from across the country turned into a passion for cooking. Uhh, well, although I can’t call myself a cook or chef, I have categorized myself as a flavor mad scientist.

  • Cook – someone who can prepare food
  • Chef – someone who can create recipes appreciated by a wider audience (personally, don’t care if they’re a professional or not)
  • Flavor mad scientist – someone who attempts to be innovative and likes experimenting with permutations of flavors and textures (80-90% ‘failure’ rate), aka me

So, I chatted/learned from chefs/cooks, ranging from some of the most prestigious kitchens to my favorite home kitchens. Here are some tips and hacks I got from some of the best:

For the carbs:

  • You can tell if a risotto (or rice in general) is cooked by smearing a rice grain on a flat surface. If it smears without noticeable lumps, you’re good.
  • Add a teaspoon of olive oil in the pasta dough to give it a bit of shine.
  • Flour matters. Don’t just use all-purpose. 00 (double zero) for silkier flour and pasta chewiness. Durum for coarser grinds, longer cook times, and for making flatbreads; some use it for pasta too, depending on the chef. And so on.

For the proteins:

  • Score the fat of a (ribeye) steak before searing, so it’s easier to render the fat. Score is a cross-hatch pattern. More surface area to render.
  • Use tongs to cook steak and a spoon to butter-baste (I swear I used to think it was spelled “butter-basing”)
  • Don’t cook cold proteins (meats/seafood). Let it rest till room temperature before cooking.
  • Allow for meats to rest for as long as you’ve had it in the pan to better absorb the flavors.
  • Before searing proteins, dry with a paper towel or season generously with salt to reduce moisture and splatter once you put it into the pan.
  • Hot pan/hot oil, quick sear and won’t stick to the pan.
  • Brush fish with mayonnaise to prevent them from sticking to the grill. And a great browning too.
  • Use cuts of meat that are rich in marrow and collagen (cartilage) to make stock, like wings, chicken feet, chicken carcass, pork knuckle, etc.
  • If you don’t have a meat thermometer, stick a metal rod (or a cake tester) into the center of the meat. Then place the rod on your lower lip. If it’s cold, more time. Hot, it’s done. If you’ve burnt your lips, well… in gamer terms, GG.

For everything else:

  • If your meats or onions ain’t sizzling in the oil, the oil in your pan isn’t hot enough.
  • To not bruise your herbs when chopping (or chiffonading if you want to be fancy), you need a sharp knife and cut once per cross-section. You can tell if you bruised your herbs by the residue they leave on the chopping block.
  • Lemon juice, ideally fresh, helps fruits from oxidizing (after being cut), so it retains its fresh color.
  • Flavor extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) with herbs (i.e. bay leaves, basil, rosemary, thyme, oregano, etc.) for the “secret” zing to your recipes. You can do the same with white wine that’s used for deglazing the pot/pan.
  • Zest citrus in once in one fluid motion with a zester to prevent mixing in the bitter rind.
  • Use fine grinds for salt and pepper to season pre-cook, and coarse grinds for post-cook/presentation.
  • Buy whole spices and a spice grinder (or pestle and mortar), instead of ground spices. You’ll get fresher and richer flavor that way.
  • Toast spices for more flavor.
  • Under-seasoning is a rookie mistake. (Admittedly, after this tip, I fell under the category of over-seasoning.)
  • Keep your work station clean. Mise en place.
  • Wear short sleeves while cooking, or roll up your sleeves.
  • If you’re a 4-eyes, like me, invest in contacts. Glasses can fog up from the steam, and possibly blur your vision in critical moments.
  • Don’t skimp on costs. Quality cookware and ingredients lead to quality food. (Not saying you can’t otherwise get a good meal, but you’ll notice the difference.)

This post was inspired by a friend’s comment on my Instagram post on February 5, 2020.

culinary tips, unfiltered, plating
You may notice that I just transcribed what I wrote on paper to this blog, with some extra sprinkles on top.

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

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The Best Way I’ve Heard to Ask “What did you learn?”

how to say no, learning

Yesterday, I grabbed a coffee with a friend – now a newly-minted manager. Between congratulations and hearing what she’s been up to, we dove into a rabbit hole about performance reviews. And out of everything she shared, there was one question that caught my attention:

What do you say “No” to now that you didn’t say “No” to when you started?

People are inherently loss-averse. We react stronger to losses than gains. Economic prospect theory has taught us that much. Essentialism, probably best popularized by author Greg McKeown, or a methodology that helps us differentiate between external noise and our internal signal, takes it a step further. For example, the questions:

  1. How much do you value an opportunity?
  2. And, How much would you sacrifice to obtain an opportunity?

… carry two different emotions. We take many aspects of our lives for granted. But when we lose any aspect of it – be it a body part, a friend or family member, or a habit – where we once lacked appreciation, we now find true value.

What we say “No” to carries layers of scar tissue – of our past we don’t want to relive. The French language has an incredibly apt way of describing knowledge. Savoir denotes simple knowledge acquisition. Connaître implies a familiarity with knowledge that is deeper and carved into one’s heart. When my friend decided to ask that question, she is looking for what her team members connaissent.

I love it! And I’m gonna steal it (well, with her permission)! For each time frame, we have a new set challenges to ‘pattern-recognize’. Founders have it cut out for them. And just by the nature of their work, they need to learn – fast.

Taking it a step further

Josh Waitzkin, author, chess champion, and martial arts champion, on Episode #412 of the Tim Ferriss Show, puts it quite elegantly:

“When I studied Tai Chi for a year, I thought I knew what I was doing. And I thought I was really started to understand it. But after 2 years, I realized everything I thought after a year was wrong. It was just wrong. But now I understood.

And then after 4 years, I realized everything I thought after 2 years was wrong. And he went on with this story and this pattern, but now I understood. And after 8 years, everything I thought after 4 years was wrong. And now I’ve been training for 16 years; everything I thought after 8 years was wrong. And now, I finally understand…

It’s easy to think we’re in the dark yesterday, but in the light today. But we’re in the dark today too.”

So, in foresight and honest vulnerability, I will take my friend’s question a step further:

What will you say “No” to tomorrow that you aren’t saying “No” to today?

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#unfiltered #1 Urgency – Thoughts on Coronavirus, Innovation, Space Travel, and Love

unfiltered vc urgency

Coronavirus. Candidate primaries. Market crashes. And what motivates us to get shit done. During a bite with one of my buddies from college, we ended up chatting about a myriad of topics. From crying when we scared as a baby to eating when we’re hungry, humans inherently act reactively than proactively.

Let’s put it into perspective:

  • Wildfires in Australia and previously in California brought nature preservation front and center.
  • Because of the coronavirus, China set up a hospital in 10 days. Whereas in SF, it takes years to extend our public metro, BART, to just one more station.
  • In startup land, look how much innovation is being done on the SaaS front. Competition drives progress. A need to be better than your competitors, or perish. On the flip side, innovation at the frontiers of technology are happening at a much slower pace. You’re right in thinking part of it is due to an element of technological risk and mystery. But a large part is also due to funding, awareness, and urgency. I was catching up with another friend, not too long ago, who’s working on the frontiers of AI research. He told me that he’s just not motivated to meet any deadlines. If he misses it, “Oh well.” And if he does reach any milestone, there’s barely a pat on the back.
  • Neil deGrasse Tyson, and I’m paraphrasing here, once said (in one of his StarTalk Radio episodes): we think if we reach commercial viability of space travel or tourism in 50 years, that it’ll be really impressive. But it’s really not. Why? If, hypothetically, aliens from another galaxy contacted us today and said, “We’re going to invade your planet in 50 years”, we will have a different sense of progress. And if in 50 years, we can only just start to commercialize space travel, we’d be sitting ducks.
  • If you have a final in the morning tomorrow and you happen to be a procrastinator (or not), you’re going to be burning the midnight oil. Otherwise, realistically, would you be studying day and night every day?
  • Tim Ferriss asks himself this one question: If in 2 years, you’re set to die. In perfect health, and a perfectly natural death. What do you have to do before you die? What will you regret no having done? So, what really matters? (I lied; it’s not really one question.)

So, how do I induce a sense of urgency? How do I motivate myself when I don’t have any impending time horizons?

One, accountability partners. Friends who keep me (and me them) accountable to my goals, like my birthday resolution. Where in 6 months, upon failure, I lose $100. Or upon success, I get treated to a really nice meal.

Two, something I took from my good friend. I once asked him about how he continues to push himself towards new experiences every month. After all, he’s the kind of person who lives a life that makes me feel as if I’ve done nothing. In response, he said:

“Fall in love.”

“I don’t get it,” I replied perplexed.

“Because it’ll make you want to impress your crush. And when you go on that date every week or every two weeks, you’ll want to show off. And the only way you can show off is if you have something to show off. So, I don’t let my dreams sit. I get shit done.”

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

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