Today, I read a 2017 piece on Nylon about advice from black writers to black writers. And there was one particular quote that caught my eye.
“Don’t edit while writing a draft or else you never finish.” – Terry McMillan
I can’t speak for the writing industry as a whole; I can’t even speak for my friends who are writers. Didn’t ask. But I can speak for myself. For this blog. Admittedly, 70% of all pieces I start writing, I don’t finish. And quite honestly, I almost hate that about myself. Writing for eyes that are more than my own has turned me into a perfectionist. The very thing I once swore to not become.
So, I’m going to try an experiment. More so for myself, in hopes of reducing the friction for me to write more. Every so often, I will post something I will title as “#unfiltered”. It’ll be less of a well-constructed thesis or methodical breakdown, but more of a writing to help me think. In sum, it’ll be a brain barf. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity. Don’t feel obligated to read it. In fact, if you don’t like brain barfs, don’t click on any of them, prefaced by its own #spoileralert. But if you do like unfiltered commentary and my rough thoughts, stay tuned. 😀
Over the past decade, stretching its roots to the dot-com boom, there have been more dialogue and literature around entrepreneurship. In a sense, founding a business is easier than it’s ever been. But like all things in life, there’s a bit more nuance to it. So, what’s the state of startups right now?
Lower Barriers to Entry
A number of factors have promoted such a trend:
There are an increasing number of resources online and offline. Online courses and ed-tech platforms. Fellowships and acceleration/incubation programs. Investor office hours and founder talks. YouTube videos, online newsletters, and podcasts.
The low-code/no-code movement is also helping bridge that knowledge gap for the average person. Moreover, making it easier for non-experts to be experts.
The gig economy have created a fascinating space for solopreneurship to be more accessible to more geographies.
Demand (by consumers and investors) fuels supply of startups, through knowledge and resource sharing. Likewise, the supply of startups, especially in nascent markets, fuels demand in new verticals. So, the ecosystem becomes self-perpetuating on a positive feedback loop. As Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO, once said:
“There are only two ways I know of to make money – bundling and unbundling.”
Bundling
Unbundling
Market Maturity
Market Nascency
Horizontalization
Verticalization
Breadth
Depth
Execution Risk Bias
Market/Tech Risk Bias
Right now, we’re at a stage of startup market nascency, unbundling the knowledge gap between the great and the average founder. This might seem counter-intuitive. After all, there’s so much discourse on the subject. There’s a good chance that you know someone who is or have thought about starting a business. But, I don’t believe we’re even close to a global maximum in entrepreneurship. Why?
Valuations are still on the rise. Six years back, $250K was enough runway for our business to last until product-market fit. Now, a typical seed round ranges from $500K-$2M. A decade ago, $500M was enough to IPO with; now it only warrants a late-stage funding round. By capitalistic economic theory, when a market reaches saturation, aka perfect competition, profit margins regress to zero. Not only are there still profits to be made, but more people are jumping into the investing side of the business.
Yes, increasing valuations are also a function of FOMO (fear of missing out), discovery checks (<0.5% of VC fund size), super duper low interest rates (causing massive sums of capital to surge in chase yields), and non-traditional venture investors entering as players in the game (PE, hedge funds, other accredited investors, (equity) crowdfunding platforms). It would be one thing if they came and left as a result of a (near) zero sum game. But they’re here to stay. Here’s a mini case study. Even after the 2018 drop in Bitcoin, venture investors are still bullish on its potential. In fact, there are now more and more specialized funds to invest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Last year, a16z, one of the largest and trendsetting VC players, switched from a VC to an RIA (registered investment advisor), to broaden its scope into crypto/blockchain.
Great founders are scarce
“The only uncrowded market is great. There’s always a fucking market for great.”
– Tim Ferriss, podcaster, author, but also notably, an investor and advisor for companies, like Facebook, Uber, Automattic and more
Even if founders now have the tools to do so, it doesn’t mean they’ll hit their ambitious milestones. For VCs, it only gets harder to discern the signal from the noise. Fundamentally, there’s a significant knowledge delta – a permutation of misinformation and resource misallocation – in the market between founders and investors, and between average founders and great founders.
The Culinary Analogy
Here’s an analogy. 30 years prior, food media was still nascent. Food Network had yet to be founded in 1993. The average cook resorted to grandma’s recipe (and maybe also Cory’s from across the street). There was quite a bit of variability into the quality of most home-cooked dishes. And most professional chefs were characteristically male. Fast forward to now, food media has become more prevalent in society. I can jump on to Food Network or YouTube any time to learn recipes and cooking tips. Recipes are easily searchable online. Pro chefs, like Gordon Ramsay, Thomas Keller, and Alice Waters, teach full courses on Masterclass, covering every range of the culinary arts.
Has it made the average cook more knowledgeable? Yes. I have friends who are talking about how long a meat should sous vide for before searing or the ratio of egg whites to egg yolks in pasta. Not gonna lie; I love it! I’ll probably end up posting a post soon on what I learned from culinary mentors, friends, and myself soon.
Is there still a disparity between the average cook and a world-class chef? Hell ya! Realistically I won’t ever amount to Wolfgang Puck or Grant Achatz, but I do know that I shouldn’t deep fry with extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) ’cause of its low smoke point.
Great businesses are scarcer
The same is true for entrepreneurship. There are definitely more startups out there, but there hasn’t been a significant shift in the number of great startups. And the increase in business tools has arguably increased the difficulty to find business/product defensibility. It’s leveled the playing field and, simultaneously, raised the bar. So yes, it’s easier to start a business; it’s much harder to retain and scale a business.
It’s no longer enough to have an open/closed beta with just an MVP. What startups need now is an MLP (minimum lovable product). Let’s take the consumer app market as an example.
The Consumer App Conundrum
Acquiring consumers has gotten comparatively easier. Paid growth, virality, and SEO tactics are scalable with capital. More and more of the population have been conditioned to notice and try new products and trends, partly as a function of the influencer economy. But retaining them is a different story.
So, consumers have become:
More expensive to acquire than ever before. Not only are customer acquisition costs (CAC) increasing, with smaller lifetime values (LTV), but your biggest competitors are often not directly in your sector. Netflix and YouTube has created a culture of binge-watching that previously never existed. And since every person has a finite 24 hours in a day, your startup growth is directly cutting into another business’s market share on a consumer’s time.
And, harder to retain. It’s great that there’s a wide range of consumer apps out there right now. The App Store and Play Store are more populated than they’ve ever been. But churn has also higher now than I’ve seen before. Although adoption curves have been climbing, reactivation and engagement curves often fall short of expectations, while inactive curves in most startups climb sooner than anticipated. Many early stage ventures I see have decent total account numbers (10-30K, depending on the stage), but a mere 10-15% DAU/MAU (assuming this is a core metric). In fact, many consumers don’t even use the app they downloaded on Day 2.
Luckily, this whole startup battlefield works in favor of consumers. More competition, better features, better prices. 🙂
So… what happens now?
It comes down to two main questions for early-stage founders:
Do you have a predictable/sensible plan to your next milestone? To scalability?
Are you optimizing for adoption, as well as retention and engagement?
With so many tools for acquisition hacks, growth is relatively easy to capture. Retention and engagement aren’t. And in engagement, outside of purely measuring for frequency (i.e. DAU/MAU), are you also measuring on time spent with each product interaction?
How are you going to capture network effects? What’s sticky?
Viral loops occur when there’s already a baseline of engagement. So how do you meaningfully optimize for engagement?
From a bottom-up approach (rather than top-down by taking percentages of the larger market), how are you going to convert your customers?
How do you measure product-market fit?
What meaningful metric are you measuring/optimizing?
Why is it important?
What do you know (that makes money) that everyone else is either overlooking or severely underestimating?
What are you optimizing for that others’ (especially your biggest competitors) cannot?
Every business optimizes for certain metrics. That have a set budget used to optimize for those metrics. And because of that, they are unable to prioritize optimizing others. So, can you measure it better in a way that’ll hold off competition until you reach network effects/virality?
Building a scalable business is definitely harder. And to become the 10 startups a year that really matter is even more so. By the numbers, less likely than lightning striking you. In my opinion, that just makes trying to find your secret sauce all the more exciting!
If you think you got it or are close to getting it, I’d love to chat!
Over the weekend, my friend and I were chatting about the next steps in her career. After spending quite some time ironing out a startup idea she wants to pursue, she was at a crossroads. Should she leave her 9-to-5 and pursue this idea full-time, or should she continue to test out her idea and keep her full-time job?
Due to my involvement with the 1517 Fund and since some of my good friends happen to be college dropouts, I spend quite a bit of time with folks who have or are thinking about pursuing their startup business after dropping out. This is no less true with 9-to-5ers. And some who are still the sole breadwinner of their family. Don’t get me wrong. I love the attention, social passion, literature and discourse around entrepreneurship. But I think many people are jumping the gun.
Ten years back, admittedly off of the 2008 crisis, the conversations were entirely different. When I ask my younger cousins or my friends’ younger siblings, “what do you want to be when you grow up?” They say things like “run my own business”, “be a YouTuber”, and most surprisingly, “be a freelancer”. From 12-yr olds, it’s impressive that freelancing is already part of their vocabulary. It’s an astounding heuristic for how far the gig economy has come.
Moreover, media has also built this narrative championing the college dropout. Steve Jobs and Apple. Bill Gates and Microsoft. And, Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook. There’s nothing wrong in leaving your former occupation or education to start something new. But not before you have a solid proof of concept, or at least external validation beyond your friends, family and co-workers. After all, Mark Zuckerberg left Harvard not to start Facebook, but because Facebook was already taking off.
Honing the Idea
The inherent nature of entrepreneurship is risk. As an entrepreneur (and as an investor), the goal should always be to de-risk your venture – to make calculated bets. To cap your downside.
Marc Benioff started his idea of a platform-as-a-service in March 1999. Before Marc Benioff took his idea of SaaS full-time, he spent time at Oracle with his mentor, Larry Ellison, honing this thesis and business idea. When he was finally ready 4 months later, he left on good terms. Those terms were put to the test, when in Salesforce’s early days, VCs were shy to put in their dollar on the cap table. But, his relationship he had built with Larry ended up giving him the runway he needed to build his team and product.
Something that’s, unfortunately, rarely talked about in Silicon Valley and the world of startups is patience. We’ve gotten used to hearing “move fast and break things”. Many founders are taught to give themselves a 10-20% margin of error. What started off as a valuable heuristic grew into an increase in quantity of experiments, but decrease in quality of experiments. Founders were throwing a barrage of punches, where many carried no weight behind them. No time spent contemplating why the punch didn’t hit its mark. And subsequently, founders building on the frontlines of revolution fight to be the first to market, but not first to product-market fit. Founders fight hell or high water to launch their MVP, but not an MLP, as Jiaona Zhang of WeWork puts it.
In the words of the one who pioneered the idea of platform-as-a-service,
The more transformative your idea is, the more patience you’ll need to make it happen.”
– Marc Benioff
As one who sits on the other side of the table, our job is to help founders ask more precise questions – and often, the tough questions. We act more as godmothers and godfathers of you and your babies, but we can’t do the job for you.
The “Tough” Questions
To early founders, aspiring founders, and my friends at the crossroads, here is my playbook:
What partnerships can/will make it easier for you to go-to-market? To product-market fit? To scalability?
What questions can you ask to better test product feasibility?
How can you partner with people to ask (and test) better questions?
What is your calculus that’ll help you systematically test your assumptions?
Do you have enough cash flow to sustain you (and your dependents) for the next 2 years to test these assumptions?
Simultaneously, it’s also to important to consider the flip side:
What partnerships (or lack thereof) make your bets more risky?
How can you limit them? Eliminate them?
And in sum, these questions will help you map out:
At this point in your career, does part-time or full-time help you better optimize yourself for reaching my next milestone?
In the past two weeks, through conversations on my birthday resolution and what my success metrics are, my friends inspired me to write this post . That’s when you know I’m in Silicon Valley! Or startup Disneyland.
So, how do I measure my progress? This is by no means proprietary or original. In an annual email exchange, my mentor had me ask myself one question:
How ashamed do I feel about myself one year prior?
Although not comprehensive, I find it to be a great litmus test for evaluating personal development. If I don’t scoff at my former self for being dumb, I’ll know I haven’t progressed. At the same time, I put myself in the shoes of my future self, abstracting myself from my status quo, and ask two questions:
What aspects of my past self am I embarrassed to see?
What strengths of my past self would I find extremely unimpressive to show off?
This acts as an ego check and helps me look at myself more objectively.
I started this practice two years ago where I keep a checklist (on Google Keep) of wins I keep track of throughout the year. It included any magnitude of achievement, like:
A successful deal close;
Joining as a guest on a podcast;
An art piece I’m proud of drawing;
Cooking a meal that pleased my parents;
And, sleeping 8 hours a night.
Then one week prior to my birthday, Google Calendar reminds me to go through that checklist and review what I still feel proud of and what I find to be ‘normal’. I check all the ones I no longer gain contentment from. All that’s left are “My Proudest Moments at Age XX”. Then my goal for the following year is to make those moments feel ‘normal’. I’ll get to this step eventually. But I plan to review the annual lists every 5 years to see if I still feel the same.
In a way, this blog is also designed for me to reflect on earlier iterations of myself through my writing. As much as this one question has enlightened me, I hope it may act as your heuristic for your growth.
My parents have always conditioned me to plan each of my ages out. When I was younger, every year I ranked up they would ask me what I want to get done. At the same time, I never felt a strong commitment to New Year’s resolutions. Maybe it was ’cause of the gingerbread cookies. Or the Christmas presents. Or the fireworks and the ball drop. But that lull between the holidays wasn’t conducive to me setting meaningful goals. The “promises” I made carried no weight behind them.
Three years back, after reading Brad Feld’s birthday resolution, I decided to start setting my own birthday resolutions. Outside of a mere date shift, there were 3 reasons I chose to do so:
I had time to recover from the holidays – to get my head straight.
I was motivated watching my friends, family, and coworkers tackle their New Year’s resolutions in the month prior. (Admittedly, more often than not, they lose their initial trajectory, but I only saw the beginning of many of their inverse parabolas.) Motivation is one side of the coin; FOMO is another.
In that motivating January, assuming I haven’t yet completed my previous year’s resolution(s), it motivates me to finish strong – the “last mile” sprint.
That said, this is my first year posting my resolutions publicly. Why? One, it’s to keep me accountable. Two, as Jeff Wald once said, “practice true vulnerability by opening up about the potholes ahead, not just the ones in the rearview mirror.” And one of my resolutions from v23.0 was to become more comfortable being vulnerable. So, what will the new update look like?
Here are the patch notes:
Build ideas from 0 to 1.
This year, I plan to actively help 2 startups go from idea to product-market fit. After 3 years on the venture side of the cap table, the one thing I’ve noticed more and more is that I miss getting my hands dirty, especially in the early stages. I miss the ups and downs. I miss the freaky moments (and the big wins). It may sound a bit weird. But I may have emotionally removed myself from being entrepreneurial and trapped myself in a bird’s-eye perspective only. And I hate it.
More artistically creative outputs.
Two years ago, I started idea-journaling by inspiration from my former college professor. After going through 9.5 idea journals, I realized I’ve spent less than 10% of my ideation space on artistic pursuits. 40% on VC and startups. 40% on personal projects and experiments. 10% everything else. There’s clearly a lack of diversity in my creative space. So, this year, I’m committing to producing one new art piece every week – be it a new drawing, music composition, culinary permutation, or something that’ll surprise myself. My deepest gratitude to my friends who gave me new canvases to explore my creative white space. You can track my progress on my Instagram.
Balancing Social Media.
In the year when many of my peers are unplugging, I’m going to be more active on social media, fine print included. I’m going to explore more by contributing content on this blog, my Instagram (for artistic pursuits), LinkedIn, Medium, Quora, Reddit, and Discord.
I’ve always shied away from social media – not because of some grandiose sense of self-discipline, but rather since I’ve never been able to fully conquer my shell of introversion. After all, my Facebook profile picture and lack of presence is my form of psychological armor.
That said, I still won’t be scrolling through my news feed on social media. But I will aim to respond to every comment and DM that comes my way. I’m a firm believer in responding to the commitment and time people take to write a thoughtful message. Luckily, I’m also at a stage in my life and career when I don’t have more messages/emails than I can manage.
Reconnecting.
Over the past half decade, I’ve grown a lot from reaching out to, learning from, and helping new folks in my network. And, I’m grateful for each and every experience. I wouldn’t be here today if it weren’t for them. But as a result of constant pursuits of new experiences and expanding my network, I haven’t been able to reconnect with friends, mentors, teachers, and acquaintances I’ve had in the past, outside of my annual holiday greetings and thanks. In this new update, I’m committing 10 minutes every day to meaningfully rekindle old flames that I haven’t caught up with in the past 6 months.
Read more.
By virtue of reconnecting with friends from my past, it’s useful to have content and inspiration when reconnecting, but also as a means to widen my own knowledge horizon. Outside of work and my one-book-a-month of reading, I’ll be indulging in a minimum of an hour of diverse reading every day via the ‘Discover’ tab on Pocket.
Sleep and wake earlier.
Ever since college, I’ve been a night owl. It’s weird ’cause in college, students apparently have this ego contest of how many ‘all-nighters’ one can pull and still be ‘alive’. Being young and naive, I joined in the chorus, but I never won. In fact, in my entire college career, I pulled only 2 all-nighters, not even back-to-back, and I was already dead. But it ended up ruining my sleep schedule. I would go to sleep between 12 and 3AM. Sometimes for no reason at all.
After I came back from my holiday Europe trip, mostly due to jet lag, I started sleeping at 9PM every night for the first week. I felt so much more refreshed in the morning and through most of the day than when I didn’t. But also, there’s so much less noise in the morning between 4:30 and 6:30AM – both on social media and in the neighborhood. And I could much of my creative work done. This year, I’m going to sleep at 10PM latest and wake at 4:30AM.
Goal-oriented exercise.
I haven’t necessarily been unfit, but my daily routines seem to drone by without any personal achievement or goal in mind. I have no plans to reach my past physical prowess where I spent 30-40 hours a week spent on exercise. But this year, I’ll stick to 2 goals for health and exercise: sub-5:30 mile and 20 pull-ups. (I’m at a 7:15 and 7 pull-ups at the time of writing this post.)
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It’s going to be an exciting year, and I plan to have plenty of hotfixes before I reach v25.0, hopefully daily. Thank you to my friends for all the birthday wishes, support, and feedback.
