Month: October 2023

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Timing is Only Obvious in the Rearview Mirror

watch, time, clock

There’s this line I love in Jerry Colonna’s Reboot, and I’m loosely paraphrasing just because I’m travelling and I don’t have the book in front of me, “The saying is buy low, sell high; not buy lowest, sell highest.”

The reason I bring up that line is that I’ve been hearing a lot of investors talk about timing the market. At least that was the case before this wonderful trip I’ve been taking across the Pacific, as I sip my hojicha atop my hotel in the backdrop of the Kyoto evening metropolis. When’s a good time to sell? What price makes sense on the secondary market? Should I be investing now? When’s a good time to re-up? Is it a good idea to re-up? Should I be generating DPI for my investors now? Or should I hold? When should I start my fund? When should I begin fundraising?

Now, I don’t pose the above questions as if I have all the answers. In fact, I don’t. I try to. But I don’t. Although I’ve heard 50-60% is the discount secondary buyers have been able to get for great companies that became overvalued in the pandemic days. On the flip side, while Dave and I did published a blogpost not too long ago on early DPI, the truth is there are different ways to make money. Ed Zimmerman shared some of his investments’ data recently to illustrate that exact point.

Another obvious truth is that as investors for an alternative asset class — hell for any asset class, our job is to make our LPs money. Ideally, more money than we were given. For other asset classes, it’s measured in percentages. For venture, it’s multiples. And because of that raison d’être, it’s our job to think not only about the upside, but also the downside protection. Hence, why early DPI matters in some of your best outliers. It always matters.

But from what I’m seeing and hearing, it matters more in a bear market, like today. Than the bull we were in yesterday. Why?

  1. Liquidity is a differentiator.
  2. Because of the point 1, giving LPs some liquidity back makes it easier to get to conviction as you raise your next fund.
  3. Point 2 holds the most weight if you’re an emerging manager on Funds I through III, or have sub $100M AUM. Although Funds I and II, you have little to go off of. As such, sticking to your strategy may be more important to some LPs. In other words, consistency.
  4. Also seems to matter more if your LPs are investing off balance sheet. For instance, corporates.

While I was in Tokyo earlier this trip, I caught up with a colleague. We spent the evening chatting about fund managers and current deployment schedules. (In case you’re wondering, no, we didn’t spend the whole time talking the biz.) And we see a lot of folks slowing down their pace of deployment. Could be the case of deal flow contraction, as Chris Neumann recently wrote about. Could be the case of loss of conviction behind initial fund strategy. We’ve also seen examples of VCs stretching their deployment schedule as their fundraises have been extended to 2024. All in all, that means VCs’ bar for “quality” has gone up.

But let me explain in a bit why I put “quality” in quotation marks.

So, timing comes down to two things:

  1. Entry point
  2. Exit point

I’ve seen a plurality of investors consider exit options as a means to *crossing fingers* convince existing LPs to re-up to the next fund. Debatable on how effective it is. As many LPs I’ve chatted with are “graduating” a lot more of their GPs than years prior. In other words, fancy shmancy word for they’re not re-upping on certain existing managers. Some LPs say it’s an AUM problem (but I’ve also seen them make exceptions). Others say it’s strategy drift. But more so say that certain GPs haven’t been a good fiduciary of capital, which ends being a combination of:

  • High entry points
  • Faster than promised deployment schedules (i.e. 1-1.5 years instead of 2-4 years)
  • Investing in a company where the preference stack is greater than the valuation of the company (similar to the first bullet point)
  • Reactive communication of strategy drift, instead of preemptive and proactive
  • Logo shopping which led to strategy drift

All that to say, there are a good amount of LPs who, though appreciate the extra liquidity from partial exits, are not re-investing in existing managers. In addition, they’re holding off until on new ones till earliest Q1 next year to build the relationship earlier. Especially those $5M+ checks.

So, quality, for both GPs and LPs, is this new sugar coating of a term to account for time it takes to figure out where they want to put the next dollar. Investors on both sides are waiting to pull the trigger at 90% conviction, instead of the usual 70%. And realistically, for pre-product market fit companies and firms (i.e. pre-seed, seed startups and Funds I-III), 90% usually never comes until it’s too late. Meaning one misses their entry point.

I have no doubt (as well as many if not all my peers) that the greatest companies of the next generation are being built today. But only a small handful will make it out the gauntlet of fire. Even good companies won’t make it, unfortunately.

So, for the one building, the importance of communicating focus and discipline will be more powerful than ever. My buddy Martin also recently tweeted by an unrelenting focus on a niche audience may serve more useful than targeting a seemingly large TAM.

For the one investing, there is no good time. Our job is to buy low, sell high. Not buy lowest, sell highest. Waiting for the right moment will only have you miss the moment. In the surfing analogy, where the market is the wave, the product is the board, the team is the surfer, and you need all three to be a great surfer, you don’t want to be on the shore when the wave hits. It is better to be paddling in the water before the wave hits than on the shore when the wave does hit. Timing is only obvious in hindsight, never in foresight.

There’s also a great Chinese proverb that the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the next best time is today.

So in this flight to quality, consider what quality actually means. Is it a function of you doubting your original thesis? Then re-examine what caused the doubt. Was your thesis founded on first principles? For consumer, which is where I know a little bit more about, is it founded on the basis and habits of the human condition? Is it secular from technological and hype trends?

Is quality waiting on numbers or external validation? That’s fine if you’re a growth or late stage investor. You’re never going to get it if you’re a true pre-seed and seed. If you’re waiting on a large amount of traction, you’re not an early-stage investor. Round-semantics aside.

You built a fund around a 10-15 year vision. Deploy against that. Or… although we don’t see this much these days, return any remaining capital back to your LPs.

Photo by Alex Perez on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

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To Define or To Be Defined By

dictionary, definition, defined

One of my recent favorite soundbites is Rich Paul‘s. For the uninitiated, he’s the agent behind LeBron James and Draymond Green. And in his recent Tim Ferriss episode, he said: “Some people define the business card and some people are defined by their business card, and so I don’t carry a business card.”

Some of the most exciting conversations I’ve been having as of late have been in the world of family offices. There’s this shift in generational wealth transfer, but often times without sufficient knowledge transfer. At the same time, there are many next gens leaning more into risk and philanthropy. Many want to increase their exposure to venture and private equity as an asset class, but are still learning how to underwrite such risk.

My conversations echo a lot of what Citi’s been seeing as well. Two in five family offices wanted to increase their exposure to illiquid asset classes, namely the PE and VC asset classes. And while many bucket VC and PE in the same asset class, the truth is the assets operate very differently. Even within venture, underwriting the risk and performance of a sub-$40M fund versus a $40-100M fund versus a $100-500M fund versus a $500M+ VC fund are completely different. Some LPs may disagree on the exact benchmarks (for instance, sub-$100M funds and everything else), but the reality of assessing an emerging manager and an established manager are different. But I digress.

The rest are either rebalancing or figuring out their re-up strategy. Yet, as I’m sure GPs are seeing today, that shift in strategy, requires time, research, and confidence before family offices can pull the trigger. Many are waiting to Q1 next year, but engaging in conversation today.

I’ve also written before about one of my favorite lines from Engineering Capital’s Ashmeet Sidana, “A company’s success makes a VC’s reputation; a VC’s success does not make a company’s reputation. In other words to take a concrete example, Google is a great company. Google is not a great company because Sequoia invested in them. Sequoia is a great venture firm because they invested in Google.”

And I’m seeing a similar vein with family offices. The next gen don’t want to be defined by their predecessor’s goals and records. They want to define their own legacy.

There’s also the saying: If you know one family office, you only know one family office. So any broad-stroke generalizations are loosely correlated at best. That said, anecdotally, having talked with about a hundred or so family offices, here’s what I’ve come to notice.

My crudely drawn 1D scale of whether venture capital is an asset class or an access class

Smaller and/or emerging LPs see VC as an access class. Larger and more sophisticated and established LPs see VC as an asset class.

The Mendoza line — the line that separates the emerging LPs from the established ones —seems to be around 20-30 managers or over 6-7 years of venture data. For the latter, that means, you’ve seen Fund I’s and II’s graduate to Fund III’s and IV’s.

So the question for many of the next generation leading family offices has flipped from: Are you defined by your surname? To: Do you define your surname?

For those that pursue the latter, they’re a lot more proactive than previous generations. They participate in communities. Go to events. Seek education on the matter. Network with their existing managers to discover new ones. Some have also built covenants to co-invest in their manager’s breakout winners. Quite a few are building emerging manager programs or would like to. They’re hungry. Hungry to learn.

The problem I’m seeing with many managers is that they’re seeking transactional relationships. The urgency to get to their first or final close leads them to optimize for LPs who can close fast. And I get it, that’s been the game historically. But it’s leaving a massive opportunity in the market for those who have the time and are willing to educate their and prospective LPs. Who are willing to spend time building a relationship through giving first.

Photo by Edurne Tx on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

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#unfiltered #85 Relationships are Built on Actions, Not Words

action

This past weekend, I ended rewatching a classic and one of my favorite Eddie Murphy movies, A Thousand Words. Eddie, who plays Jack McCall, a literary agent, is someone who will say anything to get what he wants. And the plot of the movie effectively revolves around him trying to sign his next author and the after effects of doing so.

At one point, Dr. Sinja, the author he’s trying to sign, tells Jack, after he exclaims that he tells his wife he loves her “all the time”, “Words? More words, Jack. You tell her, like meaningless leaves that fly off a dying tree?

“Words.

“Can’t you show her that you love her? Make peace. Show them that you love them. And be truthful.”

One of my favorite people in the world, my friend who I met by way of mutual friend introduction, also happens to be one of the more well-traveled people I know. While it’s not my intention to embarrass her by writing this blogpost, she’s someone I’m deeply grateful for — my pen pal.

Every time we text, we send these long passages to each other. Paragraphs long. It doesn’t happen super often, every 2-3 months or so. And at times, we go six months without texting each other. But what makes her awesome aren’t our virtual letters, while I do really enjoy writing and reading them. What makes her awesome is that every time we meet in-person, she brings me gifts from abroad.

And she did so, ever since the day we first met, and I, in a passing remark, mentioned I didn’t travel often. And because of my work, my school, the need for me to be close to take care of family, I’ve stayed in the cocoon of the Bay Area my whole life. As such, I really do enjoy when friends tell me in detail of their travels beyond the horizons. But she took it a step further, where she would:

  1. Buy gifts, snacks and souvenirs from abroad to bring back
  2. Mail me postcards from every trip, sharing the smells, sights, sounds, and feels of her surroundings as she writes them
  3. And of course, bring me back tales from her adventures when we meet in person.

They’re small things. But despite being small, they mean a lot to me.

I’m luckier now to be able to travel more. And just like my pen pal brings back treasures when she travels, I do so for her now too.

And of course, this extends beyond friendships. The fundamentals for any relationship (friendship, romantic, customer, investor, or some other business relationship) are fulfilling promises. Too often, I meet folks, who like Jack McCall say more than they can deliver. Most times unintentionally. A large part due to society’s expectations to be nice.

I’ll give an example. How often do we hear “How can I help?” at the end of a conversation? If you’re anyone who has something that others want — connections, capital, or advice — the ones on the receiving end probably wish to pay you back in some way. But most people ask that, and when they get an answer back, they take it in like the passing wind. Personally, I’d rather people who can’t deliver on that not ask that question than ask and not deliver (if there is something the other could use help on).

To go beyond just a normal relationship means you need to deliver the unexpected — beyond the initial promise. That requires you to actually spend time caring. And when you do, actions will naturally follow words or perform independent of words.

Brex won many of their first customers finding who just raised and mailing them a $50 bottle of Veuve Clicquot. In turn, they got to demo in front of 225 out of 300 leads, and 75% of those closed. Instacart’s Apoorva Mehta delivered a pack of beer to Garry Tan at YC to win admission into their famously competitive cohorts — after they applied late!

Both were pitches. But neither in the format one would traditionally imagine.

As the saying goes, actions speak a thousand words.

Photo by Kid Circus on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

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#unfiltered #84 Some Things Aren’t Worth Measuring, Others Aren’t Worth Carrying

My friend told me recently, that in the hallowed halls of Zappos, there’s a line by the great Tony Hsieh:

“Just because you can’t measure the ROI of something doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it. What’s the ROI of hugging your mom?”

Too often we measure by the business incentives and not our own intentions. Humans are social creatures. We enjoy the company of others. No matter how much or how little. No matter if you’re an extrovert or introvert. There’s a line in my buddy Lloyed‘s new book, From Grassroots to Greatness, that I absolutely adore — a lesson he picked up from surviving the Gulf War.

“Life’s not about the destination, nor the journey. It’s your companions who matter the most. The people traveling down the road with you.”

I hosted a 20-person dinner on Wednesday. The theme was simple. Good people, good vibes. The room was 100% investors — LPs and GPs. And at any other venue, with the concentration of minds we had, the conversation would also be 100% cerebral. Markets. Political dynamics. Investment opportunities. Tactics. And so on. Ok, maybe only 90-95% cerebral, but my point still stands.

So the question is how can I, as the host, diffuse the tension in the room, where people use their amygdala, more than their pre-frontal cortex. Or in less cerebral terms, how do I get people to just have fun?

And not to get too technical (unless it is of interest, then let me know), it was setting the stage and arming people with the ammunition to not regress to their normal habits. The former lent itself to explicit statements of good vibes. The latter was executed by an order of custom fortune cookies, with all the fortunes inside containing a fun fact from someone else who was present that day.

The result was a casual night of laughs and hugs underneath the canopy of the San Franciscan sunset.

A friend asked me the next day, “What did I get out of it?”

To which I simply replied, “There’s no ROI on a good time.”

Pennies and quarters

I came across this reel while doom-scrolling on Instagram. I’ll try to find it, but at the moment forgetting the attribution. But the influencer posed the question: What’s the difference between 100 pennies and 4 quarters?

Weight.

The sum of each set equates to a dollar. But if you were to put 100 pennies in your left pocket and 4 quarters in your right, you’ll feel the weight on your left side. And in this analogy, they’re worth the same, and that there are some people who have value but are not worth the weight. Not everyone who has weight is worth carrying.

So, what?

In the age of social media (which in fairness has very much gone off thesis from its original intentions), the number of friends one has or followers or subscribers seem to matter a lot more than the quality of those relationships. Similarly, in the metropolitan world, the number of cards your Rolodex can unfurl seem to take priority over true friendship. In fact, there’s a whole phenomenon called the strength of weak ties.

I don’t think that’s right. Is there ‘value’ in knowing a lot of people? Sure. But life isn’t about numbers and stats — how much you make, or how big the deal you just struck was. In fact, the only numbers that’ll be on your gravestone will be the day you were born and the day you died. That’s it.

The sad truth is more and more people in modern society feel lonelier and lonelier. Hell, there’s plenty of literature on how many of the world’s top celebrities — in other words, some of the most followed / subscribed-to people in the world — feel incredibly lonely. And frankly it’s on overoptimization of what can be measured, and forgetting about what makes us happy, joyful, content. And spoiler alert, for all the economists and statisticians, it’s not utility points.

In closing

And so when my friend shared his adventures at the Zappos office with me, which I’ve never been to, now I really want to.

So, until the next, be kind, stay awesome, go tell someone who’s made an impact on your life, thank you, and give that person a hug. You don’t have to wait till Thanksgiving to do so.

Photo by Diana Polekhina on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

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