The other day, I had a super insightful conversation with one of my awesome teammates here at Alchemist Accelerator about access and exposure. The difference between accelerators and emerging early-stage managers.
I’ll preface that for investors, particularly emerging managers, the three things you need to win are sourcing, picking, winning. And to be a GP, you need at least two of the above three. But for the purpose of this blogpost, I’m only focusing on sourcing.
I’ll also preface with the fact that I may be biased. I started in venture at SkyDeck, an accelerator. Additionally, I advise at a bunch of studios, incubators and accelerators. Moreover, I worked at On Deck when we launched our accelerator. And now, I’m here at Alchemist Accelerator.
I truly love early-stage programs. The earlier the better.
Instacart’s recent IPO is a clear example of venture returns compared to the public market equivalent as a function of stage. The earlier you invest, the more alpha you generate to your most liquid comparable.
It’s the difference between a market maker and a market taker. A price maker and a price taker.
Though admittedly, one day, this too may become saturated, just like how venture capital went from 50-60 funds in ’07 and ’08 to now over 4000 in 2023. Do fact check me on exact numbers, but I believe I’m directionally accurate.
Let me give a more concrete example. Harvard is a phenomenal institution. And there’s a Wikipedia page full of breakout Harvard alums. But as an LP, if 50% of your managers, despite having different theses, all have half their portfolio as Harvard alums, then you as the LP are overexposed to the same underlying asset. The same is true for Stanford. Or seed or Series A funds investing in YC founders. All great institutions, but you’re not getting your buck’s worth of diversification.
The only caveat here is if you’re not looking for diversification. After all, the best performing fund would be the fund that invested a 100% of their fund in Google at the seed round. AND holding it till today. Realistically, they will have had to distribute on IPO.
The question is are you a fisher? Or are you a digger? One requires a fishing rod; the other a shovel. The latter requires more work, but you’re more likely to be the first to gold. Like Eniac was for mobile. Or Lux to deep tech.
So how do you know you’re fishing in someone else’s pond?
Easy. Your deal flow includes someone’s else’s brand. Whether that’s Sequoia or YC or SBIR. It’s not your own. You don’t own that pipeline. A lot of people have access to it. It’s no longer about proprietary deal flow, but about proprietary access to deals to borrow a framing from the amazing Beezer.
If your deal flow pipeline looks something like the graph below, you probably don’t have a sourcing advantage.
Now that’s not to say there aren’t a lot of nonobvious companies coming out of YC or these startup accelerators. Airbnb, Sendbird, Twitch (the last of which Ravi who I work with here at Alchemist happened to be one of the first institutional investor for, so have heard some of these stories), and more were all non-obvious coming out of YC. And have also seen the same for companies coming out of Techstars, 500, and Alchemist, where I call home now. But that’s a picking advantage, not a sourcing one.
The flip side is, how do you know you’re excavating your own pond?
I’ll preface by saying having your own Slack or Discord “community” is not enough. Or having your own podcast.
I put community in quotes simply because having XXX members in a large group chat isn’t indicative that their presence is really there. Is their seat warm or cold?
I love using a stadium analogy. Imagine you sold a couple thousand season tickets to a team. You can name whatever sport it is. Football (yes, the rough American kind). Soccer. Basketball. Baseball. You name it. But despite all the tickets you sell, a solid percentage of your seats each game is empty. Can you really say that your team has fans? All you did was sell a couple of cold seats.
You can make the same analogy with likes or comments on Instagram. Which seems to be a problem these days, when an influencer with a couple thousand likes per post starts hosting their fan meetups, only to realize they rented out an empty hall. In case, you’re wondering for the IG example, it’s due to bots.
All that said, I like to think about excavation in the lens of competition for attention. Everyone only has 24 hours in a day. 7 days in a week. 365 days in a year. And as someone who is expecting any level of engagement from others, you are fighting for attention with every other product, person, and habit out there.
Perks of being a consumer investor, I think about this a lot. But in the same way, having an unfair sourcing advantage is the same.
Is the greatest source of your deals tuning into you at least four of the seven calendar days in a week? Or if you have a professional audience (i.e. only product people, or only execs), are they engaging at least 3 workdays per week or 8 workdays per month? Are they spending more time reading/listening/engaging with you than with their best friend?
If you have a community, do you have solid product-market fit? Is your daily active to monthly active over 50%? You don’t need a massive audience, but for the people who are primary sources of your deal flow, are you top of mind? As Andrew Chensays, at that point, “it’s part of a daily habit.”
Is it easy for them to share your content, what you’re doing, who you are with others? Does sharing you or your content generate dopamine and social capital for them? Do you embody something aspirational? Is your viral coefficient greater than 0.5? Even better if it’s 1, then you’re ready to go viral.
And do people stick around? Do the seats stay warm? Is your community self-propagating? Is your content evergreen? Or do you produce content at a voracious pace that it doesn’t have to be? Do you live rent free in people’s brain?
And once you do invest, are you the weapon in the arsenal of choice? For instance, 65% of Signalfire’s portfolio use their platform weekly to learn and get advice. But more on the winning side in a future essay.
In closing
To truly have a sourcing advantage, you need to be building your own platform that is impressionable and regularly take mind space from the founder audience. But if you don’t, that’s okay. You just need to be really good at picking and winning.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
VCs win upon liquidity event. And that happens either via M&A or via going public. After that, the shares are transferred to the hands of the LPs and they choose how they’d like to liquidate or keep. To date, we have neither seen a trillion dollar acquisition nor a trillion dollar IPO. I’m not saying it’ll never happen. I’m sure it will, at some point. A combination of inflation and companies finding more liquidity when private markets are bullish.
As Charles Hudson suggests in his one of his latest posts, the venture world has been changing. What was once a cottage industry gave way to multi billion dollar funds. While there are still many small sub-$100M funds, LPs have started evaluating venture capital not as just one big industry, but segmenting it by size of fund. Small funds, sub-$100M. Medium-sized funds, $100-500M. And big funds, funds north of $500M assets under management (AUM for short). And as the Mike Maples dictum goes, your fund size is your strategy.
Returning a billion-dollar fund requires different kinds of investments and math for it to work compared to returning a $50M fund. And one day, as large funds continue to expand into multiple stages, check size, but also eventually into public markets, we might see them start to bet on trillion-dollar outcomes. Because to return a 11- or 12-figure fund, you need to do just that. But given the market we’re in now, I imagine that won’t be in the near future.
The 10,000-foot view
So the thing you have to gain conviction around, as a macroeconomist, is not how big a venture fund should be. Nor the debate on how many VC funds is too many. The number nor the size truly matter in the grand scheme of things.
For an illiquid asset class like venture, where you’re betting on the size of the home runs, not one’s batting average, what you have to gain conviction around is:
How many truly great companies are there every year
How much capital is needed to get these companies to billion dollar outcomes
For the latter, there are two main ways to get to billion dollar exits: going public or getting acquired. And while there are outliers, the best way is for these businesses to get to $100M of recurring revenue.
And everything else is downstream of that.
As an LP once told me, “In the 1990s, it took $7 million to get to first revenue. In the 2000s and into the early 2010s, it took $700K. Now it takes $70K.” With each era and each wave of technological development, founders become more capital efficient. There are less barriers to get to market. Now with AI, it might just be $7K to get to first revenue, if not sooner.
The question is how much capital is needed to get to $1M ARR. If we take a decent burn multiple of 1.5x, then we underwrite an assumption that it’ll take $1.5M to get to $1M ARR. And possibly $4.5M to get to $3M ARR. And somewhere in there, that founder will find product-market fit and turn on the growth engine. CAC (customer acquisition cost) falls. And lifetime value increases. Payback periods shorten. And if all goes well, founders may find themselves with a sub-one burn multiple. And after they hit $1M ARR, and they triple the first two years, double the next three, they’re at $100M ARR. Of course, I’m illustrating the above all in broad strokes. The best case scenario. But most things don’t go according to plan.
Then an investor has to figure out if one should only make net new investments or re-capitalize a select few of their existing investments.
Then as LPs, what is the minimum ownership percentages that can return funds at each differentiated stage and fund sizes? And due for possibly another blogpost altogether, how does a 7-8x multiple on forward-looking ARR impact round sizes and valuations across bull and bear markets?
All this admittedly is both art and science. But I will admit that larger fund sizes and playing the AUM game may not be the answer.
In closing
My friend recently sent me this letter that Sam Hinkie wrote when he retired as GM of the 76ers. In it, he quoted the great Sage of Omaha when he closed down Buffett Partnership. “I am not attuned to this environment, and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.” And it’s for that same reason, Sam stepped down. The same reason Jerry Seinfield turned down $110 million to do another season of Seinfeld. Even though the sequel business does quite well.
There is no shame in knowing when to hang up the cleats. And there is great power in being disciplined. In fact, it’s one of the most sought-after traits in fund managers. If not, the most sought-after.
In VC, it comes in all sizes, ranging from:
Fund size discipline. There a lot of GPs out there who have gone on to raise 9- to 10-figure early stage funds. A mathematical equation that becomes increasingly harder to prove true, given outputs need to reflect inputs. In other words, larger funds are harder to return. There are a lot of VCs who would rather play the AUM (assets under management) game than stay disciplined on returns. Not just paper returns, but real cold hard cash. In the words of my friend Chris Douvos, “moolah in da coolah.” To quote another line from Chris, “OPM (other people’s money) is like opium. It’s addicting.” Something one too many investors have gotten addicted to.
Thesis discipline. As a friend who’s been a VC across multiple economic cycles once told me, it’s much better to turn down an off-thesis hot deal led by a top tier firm than to take it.
Career discipline. To echo the words of Sam Hinkie above.
And of course, knowing that we underwrite billion dollar outcomes, rather than trillion dollar ones. Then again, that’s just a subset of fund size and portfolio construction.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
Voila, the fourth installation of 99 soundbites I’ve been fortunate enough to collect over the past year. The first four of what I imagine of many more to come. Each of which fall under one of the ten categories below, along with how many pieces of advice for each category:
You can also find the first three installments of 99 pieces of advice for both founders and investors here. Totaling us to a total of 396 pieces of advice.
But without further ado…
Fundraising
1/ If you’re an early stage startup, expect fundraising to take at least 3-4 months to raise <$1M. If you’re on the fast side, it may take only 2 weeks. – Elizabeth Yin*timestamped April 2022
2/ If you’re going to raise a round over 6-12 months, it often doesn’t seem fair that your first commits have the same terms as those who commit 6 months later, since you’ve grown and most likely have more traction at the time. As such, reward your early investors with preferred terms. Say you’re raising a $1M round. Break the round up to $300K and $700K. Offer a lower cap on SAFEs for the $300K. “Tell everyone that that offer will only be available until X date OR until you hit $300k in signed SAFEs. And that the cap will most likely go up after that.” Why? It lets you test demand and the pricing on the cap – to see if you’re cap is too high or too low on the first tranche. – Elizabeth Yin
3/ As a startup in recessionary times, you have to grow your revenue faster than valuations are falling to make sure you raise your next round on a mark up. Inspired by David Sacks and Garry Tan. *timestamped April/May 2022
4/ There’s only going to be 1/3 the amount of capital in the markets than in 2020 and 2021. So plan accordingly. If you’re not a top 0.1% startup, plan for longer runways. Fund deployments have been 1-1.3 years over the past 1.5 years, and it’s highly likely we’re going to see funds return back to the 3-year deployment period as markets tighten. *timestamped May 2022
5/ B2B startups that have the below disqualifiers will find it hard to raise funding in a correcting venture market:
No to little growth. Good growth is at least doubling year-over-year.
Negative or low gross margins. Good margins start at 50%.
CAC payback periods are longer than one year.
Burn multiples greater than 2 (i.e. You’re burning $2 for every dollar you bring in). A good burn multiple is 1 or less. – David Sacks
6/ Beware of “dirty term sheets.” Even though you’re able to get the valuation multiple you want, read the fine print for PIK dividends, simple “blocks” on IPO/M&A, and 2-3x liquidation preferences. Inspired by Bill Gurley.
7/ “This came at a very expensive valuation with certain rights that should not have come with it — like participating preferred, which is they first get their money out and then they participate in the rest, which was OK for the earlier rounds, but not for the later ones.” – Sabeer Bhatia in Founders at Work
8/ In a bear market, public market multiples are the reference points, not outlier private market multiples. Why? Public market multiples are their exit prices – how they return the fund. It matters less so in bull markets. – David Sacks
9/ Don’t trust the “why”, trust the “no.” Investors don’t always give the most honest responses when they turn down a company.
10/ If you inflate your projections, the only investors you’ll attract are dumb investors. They’ll be with you when things are going well and make your life a living nightmare when things aren’t, will offer little to no sound advice, and may distract you from building what the market needs. By inflating your projections, you will only be optimizing for the battle, and may lose the war if you can’t meet or beat your projections.
11/ VCs will always want you to do more than you are pitching. So if you’re overpromising, they’re raising their expectations even more down the road.
12/ Five questions you should answer in a pitch deck:
If you had billboard, what 10 words describe what you do?
What insight development have you had that others have not?
How you acquire customers in a way others can’t?
Why you?
What you need to prove/disprove to raise next round? – Harry Stebbings
13/ The longer you’re on the market, the greater the differential between expectations and reality, and the harder it is over time to close your round. Debug early on in the fundraising process (or even before the fundraising process) by setting and defining expectations through:
Leveraging market comparables. You don’t have to be good at everything, but you have be really really amazing at one thing your competitors aren’t. It’s okay if they’re better than you in other parts.
14/ You should reserve 10% of your round to allocate to your most helpful existing investors. Reward investors for their help. – Zach Coelius
15/ If your next round’s investor is willing to screw over your earlier investors out of pro rata or otherwise. After they leave, the only one left to screw over is you. – Jason Calacanis
16/ “Nobody’s funding anything that needs another round after them.” – Ben Narasin quoting Scott Sandell
17/ “When a VC turns you down for market size, what they are really saying is: I don’t believe you as the founder has what it takes to move into adjacent and ancillary markets well.” – Harry Stebbings
18/ When raising from corporates, be mindful of corporate incentives, which may limit your business and exit opportunities. “I’ve often seen the structure just simply be a SAFE with no information rights. No Board seats. Check sizes that are worth < 5% ownership. No access to trade secrets.” – Elizabeth Yin
19/ LOIs mean little to many investors, unless there’s a deposit attached to it. A customer must want the product so much they’re willing to take the risk of putting money down before they get it. 1-5% deposit would be interesting, but if they pay the product in full, you would turn investor heads. – Jason Calacanis
20/ “The most popular software for writing fiction isn’t Word. It’s Excel.” – Brian Alvey
21/ “Ask [prospective investors] about a recent investment loss, where the company picked someone else. See how they describe those founders, the process, and what they learned. This tells you what that investor is like when things don’t go their way.” – Nikhil Basu Trivedi
22/ “Founders, please hang onto at least 60% of the company’s equity through your seed raise. Series A or B is the first time founder equity should dip below 50%. I’ve seen cap tables recently where investors took too much equity early on, creating financing risk down the road.” – Gale Wilkinson
23/ “One of the worst things you can say to a VC is ‘we’re not growing because we’re fundraising.’ There are no excuses in fundraising.” – Jason Lemkin. Fundraising is a full-time job, but when you’re competing in a saturated market of attention, it’s you who’s fundraising, but not growing, versus another founder who’s also fundraising and is growing.
25/ The goalposts of fundraising (timestamped Oct 20, 2022 by Andrea Funsten):
Pre-seed: $750K-1.5M round
Valuation: $5-10M post (*She would not go over $7M)
Traction:
A working MVP
Indications of customer demand = have interviewed hundreds of potential customers or users
2-5 “Design Partners” (non-paying customers or users)
Seed: $2-5M round
Valuation: $12-25M post (*She would not go over $15M)
Traction:
$10-15K MRR, growing 10% MoM
6-12 customers who have been paying for ~6 months or more, a few that would serve as case studies and references
Hired first technical AE
Series A: $8-15M round
Valuation: “anyone’s guess”
Traction:
$1.5M in ARR is good, more like $2M
3x YoY growth minimum, but more like 3.5x • 12-20 customers, indications of ACV growth
Sales team in place to implement the repeatable sales playbook
26/ Don’t take on venture debt unless you have revenue AND an experienced CFO. – Jason Calacanis
27/ When you are choosing lead investor term sheets:
For small VC teams (team <10ppl): Make sure your sponsoring partner is your champion. Why does investing in you align with their personal thesis? Their life thesis? Which other teams do they spend time with? How much time do they spend with them? When things don’t go according to plan, how do they react? How do they best relay expectations and feedback to their portfolio founders?
For larger platform teams (team >10ppl): Ask to talk to the 3-5 best people at the firm. And when the investor asks you to define “best”, ask to talk to their team members who best represent the firm’s culture and thesis. Why? a/ This helps you best understand the firm’s culture and if there’s investor-founder fit. b/ You get to know the best people on the team. And will be easier to hit them up in the future.
28/ “If you are a category-defining company, you will always have a TAM question, if the category is defined by somebody else, you will not have a TAM question.” – Abhiraj Bhal
29/ “[Venture] debt typically has a 48-54 month term, as follows: 12 months of a draw period (ballooned to 18 months over the last few years), to which you can decide to use it or not 36 months to amortize it after that 12 months. The lender at this stage is primarily underwriting to venture risk, meaning they are relying on the venture investor syndicate to continue to fund through a subsequent round of financing.” This debt is likely to be paired with language that allow the fund to default if investors say they won’t fund anymore and/or just not to fund when asked. “They typically are getting 10bps-50bps of equity ownership through warrants. Loss rates must be <3-4% for the model to work.” If there’s less than 6 months of runway or cash dips below outstanding debt, then as a founder, expect a lot of distracting calls. – Samir Kaji
30/ The best way to ask for intros to investors is not by asking for intros, but by hosting an event and having friends invite investors to the event. There’s less friction in an event invite ask than an investor intro ask. The reality is that the biggest investors are inundated with intro requests all the time, if not just by cold email too.
Cash flow levers
31/ The bigger your customers’ checks are (i.e. enterprise vs. SMB vs consumer), the longer the sales pipeline. The longer the sales pipeline, the longer you, the founder, has to stay the Head of Sales. For enterprise, the best founders stay VP of Sales until $10M ARR. For SMB, that’s about $1-2M ARR, before you hire a VP of Sales. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
32/ “‘I have nothing to sell you today — let’s take that off the table and just talk,’ he would say. ‘My goal is to earn the right to have a relationship with you, and I know it’s my responsibility to earn that right.'” The sales playbook of David Beirne of Benchmark Capital fame, cited in eBoys.
33/ “All things being equal, a heavy reliance on marketing spend will hurt your valuation multiple.” – Bill Gurley
34/ If you were to double or triple the price of your product, what percent of customers would churn? If the answer is anything south of 50%, why aren’t you doing it?
35/ Getting big customers and raising capital is often a chicken-and-egg game. Sometimes, you need brand name customers, before you can raise. And other times, you need capital before you can build at the scale for brand name customers. So, when I read about Vinod Khosla’s advice for Joe Kraus: “We had $1 million in the bank and we didn’t know what we were going to bid. We sat down in my office, all on the floor. Vinod said we should bid $3 million. I was like, ‘How do we bid $3 million? We only have $1 million in the bank.’ And he said, ‘Well, if we win, I’m pretty sure we can raise it, but if we don’t win, I don’t know how we’re going to raise.'”
36/ “Your ability to raise money is your strategy. If you’re great at it, build any business with network effects. If you’re bad at fundraising, it’s strategically better to build a subscription business with no network effects.” – Elizabeth Yin
37/ Be willing to fire certain customers (when things get tough or in an economic downturn). If they aren’t critical strategic partners or are loss making, figure out how to make them profitable. If you can, renegotiate contracts, like cheaper contracts for longer durations. If not, let them go. Make it easy to offboard.
38/ An average SaaS business, that doesn’t have product-led growth, is spending about 50% of revenue on sales and marketing. Those that are in hyper growth are spending 60%. – Jason Lemkin
39/ “The only thing worse than selling nothing is selling a few. If you sell nothing, you stick a bullet in it and move on. When you sell a few, you get hope. People keep funding even though it’s really not viable.” – Frank Slootman
40/ If your customer wants to cancel their auto-renew subscription to your product, you should refund them a 100% of their cost. – Jason Lemkin
41/ “Your price isn’t too high. Your perceived value is too low.” – Codie Sanchez
42/ “15-20% of IT spend is in the cloud.” And it’s likely to go up. – Alex Kayyal
43/ If your customers are willing to pay you way ahead of when your service is executed, you have an unfair and unparalleled cashflow advantage. – Harry Stebbings
44/ If you’re in the CPG business, it’s better to negotiate down the contract. “You buy 75, and you sell 60, they’re going to go, ‘Ah, I got 15,000 in inventory, it’s not a success.’ If you give them 40, and then they have to buy another 20, and they sell 60, they go, ‘Wow, we ordered 50 [(I think he meant 20)] more than our original order.’ You’re still at 60, but one, they’re disappointed, and one, they’re not. You’re still playing some weird mind games a little bit so that they feel good about whatever number was there.” – Todd McFarlane
45/ “If you are under 100 customer/users, get 20 of them in a Whatsapp Group. You will:
Get much higher quality feedback, faster, on the current product.
They will be WAY more proactive in suggesting future product ideas and helping you shape the product roadmap.
It will create a closer relationship between you and them and they will become champions of the product and company. People like to feel they had a hand in the creation process.” – Harry Stebbings
46/ Create multiple bank accounts with different banks to keep your cash, to hedge against the risk of a bank run. The risk is very unlikely to occur, but non-zero, especially in a recessionary market. Inspired by SVB on March 10, 2023. More context here, and what happened after here. Breakdowns here, here and here.
47/ “Keep two core operating accounts, each with 3-6 months of cash. Maintain a third account for “excess cash” to be invested in safe, liquid options to generate slightly more income.” – A bunch of firms
48/ “Maintain an emergency line of credit. Obtain a line of credit from one of your core banks that can fund the company for 6 months. Do not touch it unless necessary.” – A bunch of firms
49/ In case of a bank run: “1/ Freeze outgoing payments, let vendors know you need 60 days, 2/ Figure out payroll & let your investors know exactly when cash out, 3/ Attempt emergency bridge with existing investors; hopefully reasonable terms or senior debt (but given valuation reset this is a HARD discussion for many), 4/ Figure out who can take deferred salary on management team, which will extend runway, 5/ Make sure you communicate reality to team honestly so they can make similar plan for their household, 6/ Make sure you talk to HR about legal issues around payroll shortfall — which hopefully this doesn’t come to, 7/ In future, keep cash in 3 different banks.” – Jason Calacanis
50/ “Whenever a CEO blames their bad performance on the economy, I knew I had a really crappy CEO. ‘Cause it wasn’t the economy, it was a bad product-market fit. The dogs didn’t wanna eat the dogfood. Sometimes the economy can make that a little worse, but if people are desperate for your product, it doesn’t matter if the times are good or bad, they’re going to buy your product.” – Andy Rachleff
51/ General reference points for ACV and time to close are: $1K in 1 week. $10K in 1 month. $100K in 3 months. $300K in 6 months. And $1M in 12 months. – Brian Murray
52/ A B2B salesperson’s script from Seth Godin. “Look, you’ve told me you have this big problem you need to solve. You have a five million assembly line that’s letting you down, blah blah. If we can solve this problem together, are you ready to install our system? Because if it’s not real, let’s not play. Don’t waste my time, I won’t waste yours. You’re not going to buy from me because I’m going to take you to the golf course. You’re not going to buy from me because our RFP is going to come in cheaper than somebody else’s. You want my valuable time? I’m going to engage with you, and tell you the truth and you’ll tell me the truth. You’re going to draw your org chart for me. You’re going to tell me other complicated products you’ve bought and why your company bought them. And I’m going to get you promoted by teaching you how to buy the thing that’s going to save your assembly line. Let’s get real or let’s not play.” – Seth Godin
53/ “The job of a pre-seed founder is to turn investor dollars into insights that get the company closer to finding product-market fit.” – Charles Hudson
Culture
54/ Deliver (bad) news promptly. Keep to a schedule. The longer you delay, the more you lose your team’s confidence in you. For example, if your updates come out every other Friday, and you miss a few days, your team members notice. Your team is capable of taking the tough news. This is what they signed up for. Explain a stumble before it materially impacts your bottom line – revenue. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
56/ “It’s easier, even fun, to do something hard when you believe you’re doing something that no one else can. It’s really hard to go to work every day to build the same thing, or an even worse version, of what others are already building. As a result, there was a huge talent drain from the company.” – Packy McCormick
57/ Lead your team with authenticity and transparency. “Employees have a ridiculously high bullshit detector, more so than anyone externally, because they know you better. They know the internal brand better.” So you have to be honest with them. “Here’s what we’re going to tell you. Here’s what we won’t, and here’s why.” Set clear expectations and leave nothing to doubt. – Nairi Hourdajian
58/ When someone ask Jeff Bezos, when does an internal experiment get killed? He says, “When the last person with good judgment gives up.” – Bill Gurley citing Jeff Bezos
59/ “Getting too high on a ‘yes’ can prepare you for an even bigger fall at the next ‘no.’ Maintaining your composure in the high moments can be just as important as not getting too down in the low moments.” – Amber Illig
60/ “Most have an unlimited policy paired with a results-driven culture. This means it’s up to the employee to manage their time appropriately. For example, no one bats an eye when the top performing sales person takes a 3 week vacation. But if someone is not pulling their weight and vacationing all the time, the perception is that they’re not cut out for a startup.” – Amber Illig
61/ “Whenever we’re dealing with a problem and we call a meeting to talk about the problem, I always start with this structure. We are here to solve a problem. So the one option that we know we’re not going to leave the room doing is the status quo. That is off the table. So whenever we finish this meeting, I want to talk about what option we’re taking, but it’s not going to be what we’re currently doing.” – Tobi Lutke
62/ “[Peter Reinhardt] would put plants in different parts of the office in order for the equilibrium of oxygen and CO2 to be the same. He would put noise machines in the perfectly placed areas and then reallocate the types of teams that needed to be by certain types of noise so that the decibel levels were consistent. What I don’t think people realize about founders is that they are maniacal about the details. They are unbelievable about the things that they see.” – Joubin Mirzadegan
63/ “Leadership is disappointing people at a rate they can absorb.” – Claire Hughes Johnson
64/ Page 19 Thinking: If you were to crowdsource the writing of a book, someone has to start inking the 19th page. And it’s gotta be good, but you can’t make it great on the first try. So you have to ask someone else to make it better, and they have to ask another to make their edits even better. And so on. Until page 19 looks like a real page 19. “Once you understand that you live in a page 19 world, the pressure is on for you to put out work that can generously be criticized. Don’t ship junk, not allowed, but create the conditions for the thing you’re noodling on to become real. That doesn’t happen by you hoarding it until it’s perfect. It happens by you creating a process for it to get better.” – Seth Godin
Hiring
65/ Hiring when your valuation is insanely high is really hard. Their options could very much be valueless, since they would depend on the next valuation being even higher, which either means you grow faster than valuations fall (market falls in a bear market) or you extend your runway before you need to fundraise again.
66/ It’s easier to retain great talent in a recession, but much harder to retain them during an expansionary market. Talent in a boom market have too many options. There’s more demand than there is supply of talent in a boom market.
67/ If you’re a company with low employee churn, you can afford to wait a while longer to find someone who is 20% better in the role. – Luis von Ahn
68/ “[Fractional CMOs and CROs often] want to be strategists. Tell you where to focus, and what to do better. But the thing is, what you almost always just need is a great full-time leader to implement all the ideas.” – Jason Lemkin. The only time it works is when the fractional exec owns the KPI and the function, where they work at least 60% of the time OR they work part-time and help you hire a full-time VP.
69/ Hire your first full-time comms person after you hit product-market fit, when you are no longer finding your first customers, but looking to grow your customer base. – Nairi Hourdajian
70/ “Ask [a high-performing hire] if there’s someone senior in her career that’s been a great manager, and if so, bring them on as an equity-compensated advisor to your company. If there’s someone in industry she really admires but doesn’t yet know, reach out to them on her behalf.” Give her an advisor equity budget, so they can bring on a mentor or someone they really respect in the industry. As a founder, create a safe space for both of them. Monthly 1:1s and as-needed tactical advice, introductions, and so on. And don’t ask that mentor to give performance feedback “because if so it’s less likely they’ll have honest, open conversations.” – Hunter Walk
71/ Hire talent over experience for marketing and product. “In marketing and product I prefer people with less experience and a lot of talent so we can teach them how we do things. They don’t have to unlearn anything about how they already work. We teach them how we work. For developers it might be different because it takes a lot of time to be a really good developer, and it’s relatively easy moving from one environment to another.” – Avishai Abrahami
72/ If you’re going to use an executive search firm to hire an exec, ask the firm three questions: “1/ Walk me through your hardest search? 2/ Walk me through a failed search? 3/ Why did it fail? 4/ How do you assess whether an exec is a good fit?” You should be interviewing the firm as much as the candidate. Watch out for “a firm with a history of candidates leaving in a short timeframe. Avoid firms that recycle the same execs.” – Yin Wu
73/ Before signing with any recruiting agency, ask “What happens if the person hired is a bad fit? (Many firms will restart the search to align incentives.) Is there a time limit for the search? (Some firms cap the search at 6 months. We’ve worked with firms without caps.)” – Yin Wu
Governance
74/ “The higher the frequency and quality of a young startup’s investor update, the more likely they are to succeed in the long run.” – Niko Bonatsos
75/ Five metrics you should include in your monthly investor updates:
Monthly revenue and burn, in a chart, for the whole year
Cash in the bank, at a specific date, and runway based on that
Quarterly performance for the past 8 quarters, in a chart
Target for the quarter AND year and how you are trending toward it
76/ Another reason to send great, consistent investor updates is that when prospective investors backchannel, you want to set your earlier investors up for success on how they pitch you.
77/ If you don’t have a board yet, still have an “investor meeting.” “Create investor meetings where you invite all your investors to do an in-person + Google Hangout’ed review every 60 days. They don’t have to come. But they can.” – Jason Lemkin
78/ “[The] most important measures of success for a CEO [are] internal satisfaction, investor relations and consumer support.” – Bob Iger
79/ “Entrepreneurs have control when things work; VCs have control when they don’t.” – Fred Wilson
80/ If an investor really wants their money back (usually when VCs have buyer’s remorse), there are times when they force you to sell or shut down your companies. Instead, ask them, “What would it take to get you off my cap table?” – Chris Neumann
Product
81/ “The ones that focus, statistically, win at a much higher rate than the ones that try to do two or three things at once.” – Bruce Dunlevie, cited in eBoys
82/ Once you launch, you’re going to be measured against how quickly you can ramp up to $1M ARR. One year is good. Nine months is great.
83/ The more layers of friction in the onboarding process (i.e. SSN, email address, phone number, survey questions), the better you know your user, but the higher the dropoff rate. For PayPal, for every step a user had to take to sign up, there was a dropoff rate of 30%. – Max Levchin in Founders at Work
84/ “Product-market fit can be thought of as progressively eliminating all Herbies until there are no more Herbies. Then, you’re in a mode where you can invest in growth because it’s frictionless.” – Mike Maples Jr. (In the book, The Goal, the trek is often delayed by a large kid called Herbie. As you can imagine, the group only moves as quickly as their weakest link.)
85/ “There’s a ruthlessness in the way Dylan finds sources, uses them and moves on.” – No Direction Home. Be ruthless about how knowledgeable you can be about your customers, about your problem space, and about your product. The knowledge compounds.
Competition
86/ “If you patent [software], you make it public. Even if you don’t know someone’s infringing, they will still be getting the benefit. Instead, we just chose to keep it a trade secret and not show it to anyone.” – Max Levchin in Founders at Work
87/ If you know you’re building in a hot space, and your competitors are being bought by private equity firms, share that with your (prospective) investors. The competitors’ innovation slows, and optimizing for profit and the balance sheet becomes a priority when PE firms come in. – David Sacks
88/ “As a startup, you always want to compete against someone who has ‘managed dissatisfaction at the heart of their business model.” – Marc Randolph
89/ “You cannot overtake 15 cars in sunny weather… but you can when it’s raining.” – Ayrton Senna. It’s easier to overtake your competitors in tough markets than great markets.
90/ “Having a real, large competitor is better than having none at all!” – Anna Khan
Brand/Marketing/GTM
91/ If you’re a consumer product, your goal should be to become next year’s hottest Halloween costume. Your goal shouldn’t be fit into a social trend, but to define one.
92/ Don’t be married to the name of your company. 40% of NFX‘s early stage investments change their names after they invest in the seed.
93/ The viral factor doesn’t take into account the time factor of virality. In other words, how long it takes for users to bring on non-users. Might be better instead to use an exponential formula. “Think of a basic exponential equation: X to the Y power. X is the branching factor, in each cycle how many new people do you spread to. Y is the number of cycles you can execute in a given time period. The path to success is typically the combination of a high branching factor combined with a fast cycle time.” – Adam Nash
94/ In a down market, you may not need as big of a marketing budget as you thought. Your competitors are likely not spending as much, if at all, to win the same keywords as before.
Legal
95/ “Nothing is more expensive than a cheap lawyer.” – Nolan Church
The hard questions
96/ “I’d love to kill it and I’d hate to kill it. You know that emotion is exactly the emotion you feel when it’s time to shut it down.” – Andy Rachleff, cited in eBoys
97/ “Inexperienced founders are usually too slow to fire bad people. Here’s a trick that may help. Have all the cofounders separately think of someone who should probably be fired, then compare notes. If they all thought of the same person…” – Paul Graham
98/ When you’re in crisis, find your OAR. Overcorrect, action, retreat. Overcorrect, do more than you think you need to. For instance, lay off more than you think you need to. Actions can’t only be with words. Words are cheap after all. And retreat, know when it’s time to take a step back. “Sometimes you just have to do your time in the barrel. When you’re in the barrel, you stay in the barrel. And then you slowly come out of it.” – Nairi Hourdajian
99/ “A half measure is usually something a management team lands on because it’s easy. If a decision is easy, it’s probably a half measure. If it’s hard, if it’s really damn hard… if it’s controversial, you’re probably doing enough of it. The other thing is a half measure often doesn’t have an end result or goal in mind. If you have a really specific goal, and implementing that goal is difficult, that’s probably doing your job. That’s probably what’s necessary.” – Tom Loverro
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
“If you look at all big human achievements, like flying to the moon, for instance, it’s all based on large scale cooperation. How did humans get to the moon? It wasn’t Neil Armstrong flying there by himself. There were millions of people cooperating to build the spaceship, to do the math, to provide the food, to provide the special clothing, and the funding.
“The big question becomes: why are we capable of cooperating on such a large scale when chimpanzees or elephants or pigs can’t?
“It’s the ability to invent and believe fictional stories.”
For any big achievement, and I’m specifically reminded of the recent news with FTX — for FTX to get as large as it did at its peak — it was a monumental achievement. It was the work of many, rather than a single individual. It was the result of many buying into this narrative that Sam Bankman-Fried shared. That includes his team. His customers. His investors, from Sequoia to Tiger to Softbank to Coinbase. Many of whom are smart people who gave into the velocity of the market the last two years.
Source: Sequoia article on FTX While I’m not sure how I feel about founders playing games during the meeting, I can’t deny the vision isn’t compelling.
To be fair, and this is not to condone the wrongdoings of the FTX team, every founder’s job is to distort reality. To put the human race on a fast track towards a future that is non-fiction to the founder, but fiction to everyone else. A world that isn’t false, but has yet to come. As author William Gibson once said, “The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed.”
I also love the thesis of Alexia‘s fund, Dream Machine. We make science fiction non-fiction.
Founders pitch their answer to: What will the world look like? Investors, customers, and talent then make bets with their time and money on which future they would like to see happen and the likelihood of it happening.
FTX is no exception. The fine line is when a founder does get creative, it is imperative for them to have a moral compass, which seems like SBF didn’t have. And of the million and one things they’ve done wrong (no board, giving loans using customer money, fraud, etc. and some more that are more questionable in nature, like political donations, etc. — none of which from what little I know are things I would ever endorse), I have to say they nailed their marketing and messaging. They got a lot of people excited about it fast. It’s easier to get people excited about the future of money than the future of fintech or the future of crypto.
The past week has been an insane week for crypto, namely when FTX filed for bankruptcy. And while there are many different angles to it, I took it upon myself to revisit a podcast episode from two months back where Nathaniel Whittemore, FTX’s former Head of Marketing, shared his marketing insights. Namely, around their 2021 Super Bowl ad.
A Super Bowl ad two years since its founding date. If nothing else, that’s impressive. Moreover, they got Larry David who has been known to never appear on ads to do it for them.
But what I found to be very powerful is Nathaniel breaks down why they chose to do a Super Bowl ad in the first place:
“People always focus on how much [an ad] costs. ‘This ad costs X.’ Which in a vacuum seems so high. […] What I think that analysis doesn’t take into consideration:
“The number of people actually watching those ads. If you’re gonna get X people with an ad that costs a $100,000, but then, 50x that with an ad that costs $5 million, that’s the same ratio.
“But the more important piece is that at least in America, the Super Bowl is the literal one moment each year that people not only are not annoyed with ads, but it is an active part of the experience that they’re having and they’re excited.”
He also does caveat that it doesn’t mean a Super Bowl is good for every kind of marketing campaign. But more so for brand-building, as opposed to product marketing or lead gen.
To echo that, David Sacks wrote a great piece on the importance of having an operating philosophy which I’ve referenced on this blog before. In it, he finds it incredibly powerful for companies to aggregate product updates and marketing campaigns in four big “lightning strikes” (each quarter) rather than have tidbits of information floating around every week.
Of course, companies like Twitch, Salesforce, Apple, and Google have taken it a step further by having a large launch event once a year. As Sacks mentions, “It’s not just about the external marketing value. There’s a huge internal benefit from setting dates and deadlines in order to hit a public launch.” It drives excitement and a narrative that both customers and future customers, as well as team members can get behind. The world is waiting. Your team is shooting to meet and beat expectations. And that’s incredibly motivating.
What does this mean for the crypto narrative?
A friend who took a hit from the recent series of events asked me at dinner last night, “What does this mean for crypto?”
Of which I think Yuval does a better job explaining it than I could. In the same podcast episode, he explains, “Not everybody believes in the same god or in any god. But everybody believes in money. And if you think about it, it’s strange because no other animal even knows that money exists. If you give a pig an apple in one hand and a pile of a million dollars in the other hand, the pig would obviously choose the apple. And the chimpanzee the same. And the elephant.
“Nobody, besides us, knows something like money exists in the world. The value of money doesn’t come from the paper. Most of the money in today’s world is not even paper; it’s just electronic data moving between computers. So where’s the value from? It’s from stories we believe.
“We are at risk of the whole thing collapsing. It happens from time to time in history. Inflation to some extent is that. The value of money is not what we were told it is. And inflation can sometimes hit thousands of persons and millions of persons. Eventually, the money becomes worthless.”
I don’t personally believe crypto will become worthless at any predictable point in the future. In fact, I think it has a great future ahead. Just a little early for its time from an infrastructure perspective. But, it is a non-zero possibility. That said, the more institutions, especially larger ones like FTX, that use crypto as the currency of faith, collapses, the more the faith behind the story of crypto will waver. And with repeated bad players, it is a race between mass adoption and the rate faith deteriorates.
For as long as the exchange currency is in dollars, crypto has still yet to be widely adopted. For instance, the value of crypto is pegged as a function of the dollar. As of the day I’m writing this on November 16th, 2022, if you type in bitcoin in Google search, the first search result is that Bitcoin is worth 16,768 US Dollars. In other words, as long as crypto is measured in dollars, the story of the dollar is stronger than that of crypto.
In closing
I’m not here to share my latest scoop or an update on the current situation about FTX. Twitter is filled with these already. Plenty of smart individuals have already covered all the ground I would ever even think about covering. I don’t keep my finger on the pulse of crypto and FTX nearly as much as my friends and colleagues.
Really, the purpose of this blogpost is really my curiosity that in order for FTX to get the notoriety that it has today, the team must have done something really well. And in my eyes, it’s not the product or the business, but the narrative in which they built. So, if someone at HBS or GSB isn’t writing a case study on this, they should.
P.S. Had to pass this to two friends at 6AM this morning to see if this blogpost was even worth publishing. Bless their hearts for their support so early in the morning.
#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
Given the impending, potentially larger market correction, I’ve been thinking a lot about liquidation preferences recently. And it seems I’m nottheonlyone.
Many reasons, two amongst them, concisely:
1) Liq pref results in lower FMV to option-holders, which ostensibly is net +ve for employee equity comp
2) Liq pref makes it so the startup needs to create value. Can't just raise money, immediately return capital, and profit from it
— Matt Levine .eth lol (@Matt_Levine_1) May 26, 2022
I’ve seen three major trends over the past two months:
Founders are raising on smaller multiples compared to the last round. Investors argue it’s come back to the fundamentals. Founders say it’s the market conditions. Regardless, we won’t see the same 2020 and 2021 multiples in the near future.
If a startup is still growing and is cash efficient, valuations won’t have changed as drastically. David Sacksput it best when he said that founders are still going to get well-funded, if they’re:
Cash is king. We’ve seen it in the news all of last month. Founders are extending their runways, by reducing burn. As Marc Andreessensaid 1.5 months ago, “The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more.” Companies are buckling in for 18-24 month runways, if not longer.
So what?
That goes to say, if a startup isn’t growing as expected, has a high burn, AND still wants to raise an up-round a year out of their last raise, investors are adding in more downside protection provisions. Anti-dilution provisions, minimum hurdle rate expectations, blocks on IPO or M&A opportunities, and liquidation preferences. What Bill Gurley and some VCs call the “dirty term sheet.”
Now I know there’s nuance and reason behind why liquidation preferences were created. To align incentives between the founder and investor. It stops a founder from immediately “selling the business” as soon as the money is in the bank, as Matt Levine mentioned in the above tweet. It also leads to a lower fair market value in a 409a valuation as both Matt and Keith mentioned as well. A net positive for employees, who are looking for lower strike prices to exercise their options in the future.
But as an aggregate, it seems liquidation preferences are really a strategy not to lose rather than a strategy to win. Not just the 1x liquidation preference, but the 2-3x liquidation preferences I’ve been seeing in the side letters offered by VCs.
To put it into context, that means investors get 2-3x their money back before the founders and everyone else gets theirs. By the same token, investors believe that same startup is worth at least 2-3x the money they gave the founders. Again, downside protection.
How does venture differ from other asset classes?
Unlike real estate or public market stocks or bonds, venture capital is a hit-driven business. Success is not measured by percentages, but rather by multiples. High risk, high return.
In a successful venture portfolio of 50 companies, 49 could theoretically be a tax write-off, if one makes you 200 times your capital, you’ve quadrupled your fund. A respectable return for a seed stage fund. As such, liquidation preferences have little impact on fund returns. If you’ve done venture right, your biggest winners account 90% of the fund’s returns. And they are the best pieces of evidence you can use to raise a subsequent fund. Your fund returners are the greatest determinants of your ability to raise the next fund, not how much money you saved after making a bad bet. No one cares if you got your dollar back for dollars you’ve invested towards the bottom of your portfolio, or even 50 cents back on every dollar.
And when a startup wildly succeeds, liquidation preferences don’t matter since everyone is getting a massive check in the mail, far exceeding any downside protection provisions.
In closing
Of course, as always, I might be missing something here, but preferred shares feel like a vestigial part of venture capital – thanks to our history with other financial services businesses.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
Back in mid-2020, I started writing a piece on 99 Pieces of Unsolicited, (Possibly) Ungooglable Startup Advice. There was no ETA on the piece. I had no idea when I would publish it, other than the fact, that I would only do so once I hit the number 99. Yet, just like how I was inspired to write how similar founders and funders are, it finally dawned on me to start writing a similar piece for investors around mid-2021. The funny thing, is though I started this essay half a year later, I finished writing it one and a half months sooner while I was still on advice #95 for the former.
Of course, you can bet your socks I’ve started my next list of unsolicited advice for investors already. Once again, with no ETA. As I learn more, the subsequent insight that leads to an “A-ha!” moment will need to go deeper and more granular. And who knows, the format is likely to change.
I often find myself wasting many a calorie in starting from a simple idea and extrapolating into something more nuanced. And while many ideas deserve more nuance, if not more, some of the most important lessons in life are simple in nature. The 99 soundbites for investors below cover everything, in no particular order other than categorical resonance, including:
Unfortunately, many of the below advice came from private conversations so I’m unable to share their names. Unless they’ve publicly talked about it. Nevertheless, I promise you won’t be disappointed.
As any Rolodex of advice goes, you will not resonate with every single one, nor should you. Every piece of advice is a product of someone’s anecdotal experience. While each may differ in their gravitas, I hope that each of the below will serve as a tool in your toolkit for and if the time comes when you need it most.
To preface again, none of this is legal investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Please consult your own adviser before making any investments.
General advice
1/ To be in venture capital, you fundamentally have to be an optimist. You have to believe in a better tomorrow than today.
2/ “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson. Told to me by an LP who invests in emerging and diverse managers.
3/ Have good fluidity of startup information. “No founder wants to meet a partner and have to answer the same questions again and again. Best partnerships sync and with every discussion, process the questioning.” – Harry Stebbings
4/ The lesson is to buy low, sell high. Not to buy lowest, sell highest.
5/ “The New York Times test. Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want to see on the front page of the NY Times.” – Peter Hebert
6/ “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.” – Warren Buffett
7/ When you’re starting off as an investor, bet on one non-obvious founder – a real underdog. Support them along their entire journey. Even if there’s no huge exit, the next one will be bigger. When their VPs go off and start their own businesses, they’ll think of you first as well.
8/ When planning for the next generation of your firm’s successors, hire and mentor a cohort of brilliant investors, instead of focusing on finding the best individual. Investing is often a lonely journey, and it’s much easier to grow into a role if they have people to grow together and commiserate with.
9/ “When exit prices are great, entry prices are lousy. When entry prices are great, exit prices are lousy.” – David Sacks
10/ Illiquidity is a feature, not a bug. – Samir Kaji
11/ Three left turns make a right turn. There is no one way to break into VC. Oftentimes, it’s the ones with the most colorful backgrounds that provide the most perspective forward.
12/ “Whenever you find yourself in the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” As an early stage investor, I find Mark Twain’s quote to be quite insightful.
13/ “It’s not about figuring out what’s wrong; it’s about figuring out what is so right. The job of an investor is to figure out what is so overwhelmingly great, or so tantalizingly promising that it’s worth dealing with all the stuff that’s broken.” – Pat Grady retelling a story with Roelof Botha
15/ Track your deal flow. Here’s how I track mine. Another incredible syndicate lead with over 5x TVPI (total value to paid in capital) I met keeps it even simpler. A spreadsheet with just 4 columns.
Company
Valuation in
Valuation out
Co-investors – This is where you start sharing deal flow with each other here.
16/ One of your best sources of deal flow might not be from other investors, but those who are adjacent to the venture ecosystem, like startup lawyers and VC attorneys.
17/ A WhatsApp group with your portfolio is a great tool for diligencing investments, not as much for sourcing deals.
18/ “Decide once you have 70% conviction.” – Keith Rabois. Don’t make decisions with 40% conviction since that’s just gambling. Don’t wait till 90% conviction because you’ll miss the deal for being too slow.
19/ Ask questions to founders where they show grit over a repeated period of time. They need to show some form of excellence in their life, but it doesn’t have to be in their current field. From a pre-seed manager with 3 unicorns in a portfolio of 70.
20/ As an emerging manager, one of the best reasons for investing in emerging markets: Do you want to see the deals that the top 0.1% see? Or do you want to see the deals that the 0.1% passed on? From the same pre-seed manager with 3 unicorns in a portfolio of 70.
21/ Every day, open your calendar for just one hour (two 30-minute slots) to founders you wouldn’t have had otherwise. Your network will compound. From a manager who’s invested in multiple unicorns and does the above from 10-11PM every night.
22/ The bigger your check size, the harder you have to fight to get into the round.
23/ The best investors frontload their diligence so they can have smarter first conversations with founders.
24/ Perform immersion-based diligence. Become super consumers and super users of a category, as close as you can get to subject-matter experts. That way you know very quickly after meeting a founder if their product is differentiated or unique. While you’re at it, write 2-3 page bug report stress-testing the product. Founders really do appreciate it.
26/ When a founder can’t take no for an answer and pushes back, “I always have to accept the possibility that I’m making a mistake.” The venture business keeps me humble, but these are the benchmarks that the team and I all believe in. Inspired by JCal and Molly Wood.
27/ Win deals by “sucking the oxygen out of the air.” In investing there are two ways to invest: picking or getting picked. Picking is naturally in a non-competitive space. Getting picked is the exact opposite. You have to eat competition for breakfast. And when you’re competing for a deal everyone wants to get into, you have to be top-of-mind. You need to increase the surface area in which founders remember you, not just to take their time, but to be really, really valuable in as much time as you can spend with them. Inspired by Pat Grady on an anecdote about Sarah Guo.
Pitching to LPs
28/ Surprises suck. On Samir Kaji’s podcast, Guy Perelmuter of GRIDS Capital once said: “There’s only one thing that LPs hate more than losing money. It’s surprises.” More here.
29/ Fund I: You’re selling a promise. Fund II: You’re selling a strategy. And, Fund III: You’re selling the returns on Fund I.
30/ Steven Spielberg didn’t know what E.T. should look like, so he had everyone write down people they respected. And so E.T. looked a bit like everyone on that list, including Carl Sandburg, Albert Einstein and Ernest Hemingway. In a very similar way, come up with a list of your ideal LPs. And create a fund based on what they like to see and what you can bring to the table. Oftentimes, it’s easier to ask them for personal checks than checks out of their fund.
31/ Ask the founders you back for intros to their other investors as potential LPs in your fund.
32/ The return hurdles for LPs are different per fund type: *subject to market motions. Timestamped in Sept 2021 by Samir Kaji
Nano-fund (<$20M): 5-7x+
Seed fund: 3-5x+
Series A: 3x+
Growth: 2-2.5x+
Crossover/late growth (driven by IRR, not multiples): 10-12%+
33/ “If you know one family office, you know one family office.” Said by one of the largest LPs in venture funds. Each family office situation is uniquely different.
34/ Family offices are surprisingly closed off to cold emails, but often share a lot of deal flow with each other. Have co-investors or founders introduce you to them.
35/ It takes on average 2 months for an institutional LP to do diligence and reference checks. Plan accordingly.
36/ LPs look for:
Track record (could be as an individual angel as well)
Value add
Operational excellence
37/ Data shows that first-time/emerging managers are more likely to deliver outperformance than their counterparts, but as one, you still need to show you have experience investing.
38/ People, including LPs, tend to remember stories, more than they do data. Teach your LPs something interesting.
39/ LPs have started looking more into two trends: private investments and impact/ESG initiatives. By nature of you reading this blogpost, you’re most likely the former already. The latter is worth considering as part of your thesis.
40/ Every coffee is worthwhile in some form.
41/ LP diligence into VCs break down into two types: investment and operational DD.
Investment DD includes team, incentive alignment, strategy, performance, current market, and terms/fees.
Team: What does leadership look like? How diverse are you?
Alignment: Do you have performance-based compensation?
Strategy: What sectors are you investing into? What does your underwriting discipline look like?
Performance: What do your exits look like? Are you exits repeatable?
Market: What are the current industry valuations? Economies of scale?
Terms/fees: Are they LP friendly? Are the fees based on alphas or betas? Are they aligned with your value add?
Operational DD includes business model, operational controls, tech platforms, service providers, compliance and risk.
42/ If you’re pitching to other venture funds to be LPs, say for $250K checks, larger funds (i.e. $1B fund) typically have fund allocations because check size is negligible. And a value add as deal flow for them at the A. Whereas, smaller funds don’t because it is a meaningful size of their fund. So, GPs write personal checks.
43/ If you’re planning to raise a fund, think of it like raising 10 Series A rounds. For most Series A rounds, a founder talks to about 50 investors. So for a Fund I, you’re likely to talk to 500 LPs to close one.
44/ Send potential LPs quarterly LP updates, especially institutions. Institutions will most likely not invest in your Fund I or II, but keep them up to date on the latest deals you’re getting into, so you’re primed for Fund III.
45/ Family offices want to get in top funds but most can’t because top funds have huge waitlists. Yet they still want access to the same deals as top funds get access to. They’re in learning mode. Your best sell to family offices is, therefore, to have:
Tier 1 investors as your fund’s LPs
Tier 1 investors as co-investors
Deals that they wanted to get into anyway
46/ Your Fund I LPs are going to be mostly individual angels. They believe in you and your promise, and are less worried about financial returns.
47/ Institutional LPs are looking for returns and consistency. If you say you’ll do 70% core checks and 30% discovery checks, they’re checking to see if you stick to it. Institutions aren’t in learning mode, instead you as a fund manager fit into a very specific category in their portfolio. Subsequently, you’re competing with other funds with similar foci/theses as you do.
48/ Be transparent with your IRRs. If you know you have inflated IRRs due to massive markups that are annualized, let your (potential) LPs know. For early stage, that’s probably 25-30%+. Especially when you’re in today’s frothy market (timestamped Jan 2022). Or as Jason Calacanis says it for his first scout fund that had crazy IRRs, “It’s only down from here.”
49/ Don’t waste a disproportionate amount of time convincing potential LPs about the viability of your thesis. Shoot for folks who can already see your vision. If you manage to convince an LP that didn’t previously agree, they may or may not end up micromanaging you if your thesis doesn’t work out as “expected.” Inspired by Elizabeth Yin.
50/ “The irony for us was LPs asking about portfolio construction was a sign that the meeting was going poorly.” – Jarrid Tingle.
51/ Institutional LPs prefer you to have a concentrated startup portfolio – less than 30 companies. They already have diversification across funds, so they’re maximizing the chance that their portfolio has fund returners. That said, you’re probably not raising institutional capital until Fund III. Inspired by Jarrid Tingle.
52/ If you’re an emerging manager with a fund is less than 4 years old, boasting high IRR (i.e. 50%+) is meaningless to sophisticated and institutional LPs. Focus on real comparative advantages instead. – Samir Kaji.
53/ When raising early checks from LPs, ask for double the minimum check size. Some LPs will negotiate down, and when they only have to commit half of what they thought they had to, they leave feeling like they won.
54/ When potential LPs aren’t responding to your follow ups/LP updates, send one more follow up saying: “I am assuming you are not interested in investing into our fund. If I am wrong, please let me know or else this will be your last update.” Told to me by a Fund III manager who used this as her conversion strategy.
55/ It’s easier to have larger checkwriters ($500K+) commit than smaller checkwriters (<$100K). $500K is a much smaller proportion of larger checkwriters’ net worth than checkwriters who write $100K checks. And as such, smaller checkwriters write less checks, have less “disposable income”, and push back/negotiate a lot more with fund managers before committing. Told to me by a Fund III manager.
Fund strategy/management
56/ As an investor, if you want to maintain your ownership, you have to continue requesting pro-rata rights at each round.
58/ “Opportunity funds are pre-established blind pool vehicles that eliminate the timing issues that come with deal-by-deal SPVs. Opportunity funds sometimes have reduced economics from traditional 2/20 structures, including management fees that are sometimes charged on deployed, not committed capital. Unlike individual SPVs, losses from one portfolio company in an opportunity fund offset gains from another when factoring in carried interest.” – Samir Kaji. See the full breakdown of pros and cons of opportunity funds here.
59/ There are two ways to generate alphas.
Get in early.
Go to where everyone else said it’ll rain, but it didn’t. Do the opposite of what people do. That said, being in the non-consensus means you’ll strike out a lot and it’ll be hard to find support.
60/ Sometimes being right is more important than being in the non-consensus. Inspired by Kanyi Maqubela.
Market risk as a function of ownership – What is the financial upside if exit happens? Is it meaningful enough to the fund size?
Judgment risk – Are you picking the right companies?
Win rate risk – How can you help your portfolio companies win? What is your value add?
62/ By Fund III, you should start having institutional capital in your investor base.
63/ The closer you get to investing in growth or startups post-product-market fit, the closer your capital is to optimization capital. Founders will likely succeed with or without you, but your name on the cap table will hopefully get them there faster and more efficiently.
64/ If you’re a traditional venture fund, you have to invest in venture-qualifying opportunities, like direct startup investments. But you can invest up to 20% of your fund’s capital in non-venture-qualifying opportunities, like tokens/SAFTs (simple agreement for future tokens), real estate, secondaries, and so on.
65/ If increased multiples coming out of various vintage funds, feel free to deviate from the normal 2-20. Many funds have 25 or 30% carry now, or accelerators where 20% scales with multiples (and often with a catch-up back to 1.0x at higher carry). – Samir Kaji
66/ Normally, fund managers take 2% management fees, usually over 10 years, totaling 20% over the lifetime of the fund. These days, I’m seeing a number of emerging managers take larger management fees over less years. For example, 10% as a one-off. Or 5% over 2-3 years.
67/ “The razor I apply to investing and startups is that every decision that increases your probability of wild outlier success should also increase your probability of total failure. If you want to be a shot at being a 10x returning fund? You’ll have to take on the higher likelihood of being a 1x. If you think you’re going to build the next Stripe? You’re going to have to run the risk of going nowhere.” – Finn Murphy
69/ The longer you delay/deprioritize having diverse partners, the harder it’ll be to hire your first one.
Advising founders/executives
70/ A founder’s greatest weakness is his/her/their distraction. Don’t contribute to the noise.
71/ It’s far more powerful to ask good questions to founders than give “good answers”. The founders have a larger dataset about the business than you do. Let them connect the dots, but help them reframe problems through questions.
72/ You are not in the driver’s seat. The founder is.
73/ A great reason for not taking a board seat is that if you disagree with the founders, disagree privately. Heard from a prolific late-stage VC.
74/ Advice is cheap. Differentiate between being a mentor and an ally. Mentors give free advice when founders ask. Allies go out of their way to help you. Be an ally.
75/ The best way to be recognized for your value-add is to be consistent. What is one thing you can help with? And stick to it.
76/ Productize your answers. Every time a founder asks you a question, it’s likely others have the same one. Build an FAQ. Ideally publicly.
77/ If you have the choice, always opt to be kind rather than to be nice. You will help founders so much more by telling them the truth (i.e. why you’re not excited about their business) than defaulting on an excuse outside of their control (i.e. I need to talk with my partners or I’ve already deployed all the capital in this fund). While the latter may be true, if you’re truly excited about a founder and their product, you’ll make it happen.
78/ Help founders with their firsts. It doesn’t have to be their first check, but could also be their first hire, engineer, office space, sale, co-founder, team dispute, and so on.
79/ There are four big ways you can help founders: fundraising, hiring, sales pipeline, and strategy. Figure out what you’re good at and double down on that.
80/ Focus on your check-size to helpfulness ratio (CS:H). What is your unique value add to founders that’ll help them get to their destination faster? Optimize for 5x as a VC. 10x as an angel.
81/ “The job of a board is to hire and fire the CEO. If you think I’m doing a bad job, you should fire me. Otherwise, I’m gonna have to ask you to stay out of my way.” – Frank Slootman to Doug Leone after he was hired as CEO of ServiceNow.
SPVs and syndicates
82/ The top syndicates out there all have 3 traits:
Great team
Great traction
Tier 1 VC
If your deal has all of the above, and if you raise on AngelList, your deal is shared with the Private Capital Network (PCN), which AngelList’s own community of LPs and investors, a lot of which are family offices, who allocate at lest $500K of capital per year.
83/ If you’re raising an AngelList syndicate, you need to raise a minimum of $80K or else the economics don’t really make sense. AL charges an $8K fee.
84/ If you want to include Canadian investors in your syndicate, for regulation purposes, you need to invest 2% of the allocation size or $10K.
85/ Investing a sizeable check as a syndicate lead (e.g. $10K+) is good signal for conviction in the deal, and often gets more attention.
86/ 99% of LPs in syndicates want to be passive capital because they’re investing in 50 other syndicates. You can build relationships individually with them over time, but don’t count on their strategic value.
87/ Historically, smaller checkwriters take up 99% of your time. Conversely, your biggest checkwriters will often take up almost no time. Even more true for syndicates.
88/ LPs don’t care for deals where syndicate leads have time commitment without cash commitment.
89/ Don’t give LPs time to take founders’ time. Most of the time LPs don’t ask good questions, so it’s not worth the effort to set up time for each to meet with founders individually. On the other hand, a good LP update would be to host a webinar or live Q&A session. One to many is better than one to one.
90/ There’s a lot of cannibalism in the syndicate market. The same LPs are in different syndicates.
91/ Choose whether you will or will not send LP updates. Set clear expectations on LP updates. And if you do, stick to that cadence. The people who write you the $1-5K checks are often the loudest and demand monthly updates. If you choose not to, one of my favorite syndicate leads says this to their LPs, “We won’t give any LP updates. I’ve done my diligence, and I won’t give information rights. I have a portfolio of hundreds of deals, and I can’t be expected to give deal-by-deal updates every month or every quarter. So if you are investing, just know you’re along for the ride.” Some LPs won’t like that and won’t invest, but mentioning that upfront will save you from a whole lot of headaches down the road.
92/ If you’re setting up an SPV to solely invest in a fund (or where more than 40% of the SPV is going into the fund), all your SPVs can’t against the 249 LPs cap on a fund <$10M and a 99 cap on a fund >$10. But you can invest in funds if you’re setting up an SPV to invest in more than one fund. Context from Samir Kaji and Mac Conwell.
Evergreen/Rolling funds
93/ Just like vintage years/funds are important for traditional funds, vintage quarters matter to your LPs. If they didn’t give you capital during, say Q2 of 2021, when you invested in the hottest startup on the market, your Q1 and your Q3 LPs don’t have access to those returns.
94/ Whereas GPs typically make capital calls to their LPs every 6 months, AngelList’s Rolling Funds just institutionalized the process by forcing GPs to make capital calls every 3 months.
Angel investing
95/ “The best way to get deal access isn’t to be great with founders—it’s to have other investors think you’re great with founders. Build a high NPS with investors, since they have meaningfully more reach than an operator. But of course, fight hard to be great with founders too or else this will all crash down.” – Aaron Schwartz
96/ Make most of your personal mistakes on your own money as an angel (before you raise a fund).
97/ When you’re starting off, be really good at one thing. Could be GTM, growth, product, sales hires, etc. Make sure the world knows the one thing you’re good at. From there, founders and investors will think of you when they think of that one thing. Unless you’re Sequoia or a16z, it’s far better to be a specialist than a generalist if you want to be top of mind for other investors sharing deal flow.
98/ “As an angel investor, it’s more important to be swimming in a pool of good potential investments than to be an exceptionally good picker. Obviously if you’re able to be both, it’s better 🙂 but if you had to choose between being in a position to see great deals and then picking randomly, or coming across average deals and picking expertly, choose the former.” – Jack Altman
99/ “Just like the only way to get good at wine is to drink a lot of wine. The only way to get good at investing is to see a lot of deals.” – Lo Toney.
Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Please consult your own adviser before making any investments.
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Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal or investment advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
Founders often ask me what’s the best way to cold email an investor. *in my best TV announcer voice* Do you want to know the one trick to get replies for your cold email startup pitches that investors don’t want you to know? Ok, I lied. No investor ever said they don’t want founders to know this, but how else am I going to get a clickbait-y question? Time and time again, I recommend them to start with the one (at most two) metrics they are slaying with. Even better if that’s in the subject line. Like “Consumer social startup with 50% MoM Growth”. Or “Bottom-up SaaS startup with 125% NDR”. Before you even intro what your startup does, start with the metric that’ll light up an investor’s eyes.
Why? It’s a sales game. The goal of a cold email is to get that first meeting. Investors get hundreds of emails a week. And if you imagine their inbox is the shelf at the airport bookstore, your goal is to be that book on display. Travelers only spend minutes in the store before they have to go to their departure gate. Similarly, investors scroll through their inbox looking for that book with the cover art that fascinates them. The more well-known the investor, the less time they will spend skimming. And if you ask any investor what’s the number one thing they look for in an investment, 9 out of 10 VCs will say traction, traction, traction. So if you have it, make it easy for them to find.
That said, in terms of traction, most likely around the A, what growth metrics would be the attention grabber in that subject line?
Strictly annual growth
A while back, my friend, Christen of TikTok fame, sent me this tweetstorm by Sam Parr, founder of one of my favorite newsletters out there, The Hustle. In it, he shares five lessons on how to be a great angel investor from Andrew Chen, one of the greatest thought leaders on growth. Two lessons in particular stand out:
2. Run towards the heat.
If a company has tons of hype and seems overvalued, don't run away. Run towards it. Hype is good. Means they'll raise, exit at higher valuation. And the price likely won't feel overpriced after the startup exits.
3. Look for stuff that's growing at least 3x a year.
A business can grow slowly and still be great. But if you want a huge exit as an angel, you need at 3x annual growth for users, revenue, or something else important in order to get a multi-billion outcome.
Why 3x? If you’re growing fast in the beginning, you’re more likely to continue growing later on. Making you very attractive to investors’ eyes – be it angels, VCs, growth and onwards. Neeraj Agrawal of Battery Ventures calls it the T2D3 rule. Admittedly, it’s not R2-D2’s cousin. Rather, once your get to $2M ARR (annual recurring revenue), if you triple your revenue each year 2 years in a row, then double every year the next 3 years, you’ll get to $100M ARR and an IPO. More specifically, you go from 2 to 6, then 18, 36, 72, and finally $144M ARR. More or less that puts you in the billion dollar valuation, aka unicorn status. And if you so choose, an IPO is in your toolkit.
Source: Neeraj Agrawal’s analysis on public SaaS companies that follow the T2D3 path
For context, tripling annually is about a 10% MoM (month-over-month) growth rate. And depending on your business, it doesn’t have to be revenue. It could be users if you’re a social app. Or GMV if you’re a marketplace for goods. As you hit scale, the SaaS Rule of 40 is a nice rule of thumb to go by. An approach often used by growth investors and private equity, where, ideally, your annual growth rate plus your profit margin is equal to or greater than 40%. And at the minimum, your growth rate is over 30%.
For viral growth, many consumer and marketplace startups have defaulted to influencer marketing, on top of Google/FB ads. And if that’s what you’re doing as well, Facebook’s Brand Collabs Manager might help you get started, which I found via my buddy Nate’s weekly marketing newsletter. Free, and helps you identify which influencers you should be working with.
But what if you haven’t gotten to $2M ARR? Or you’ve just gotten there, what other metrics should you prepare in your data room?
As part of my work, I talk to many seed-stage SaaS founders. At the seed, most of these founders are thinking about how to get to product-market fit. The one in zero to one. They’re launching their product with a select few companies to really nail their pain points. And often times, pricing and the business model take a backseat when they offer their customers the product for free or at an extreme discount. While investors don’t expect founders to nail pricing at the seed, it’s useful to start thinking about your revenue model early on. After all, pricing is both an art and a science. And with the right pricing structure, it can also be your proxy for assessing product-market fit. Here’s how.
Every product manager out there knows that customers don’t always know what they want, so asking them for a solution rarely nets valuable feedback. Rather, start with the problem. What are their frustrations? What sucks? What’s the last product they bought to attempt to alleviate their problem? Subsequently, what’d they like about that product? What didn’t they like?
There are two perspectives you can use to approach pricing: cost-plus and value-based. Cost-plus pricing is pricing based on selling the product at a given markup from its unit cost. The biggest mistake founders often make here is underestimating how much it costs to produce a product.
On the other hand, there’s value-based pricing. An approach where you determine the economic value of the service you are providing and give it to your customers for a bargain. Superhuman, for instance, prices the fastest email experience at $30/month. Or in a different light, a dollar a day. If you are saving more than a dollar of economic value a day by responding to emails faster than ever, then the product is worth it. The biggest pitfall here is that founders often don’t fully understand the value they’re bringing to their customers, which is a result of:
They don’t understand your value,
Or you can’t convince them of the value you think you offer.
To visualize both of these approaches better, let’s use the pricing thermometer, as YC calls it.
The greater the gap between two nodes (i.e. value and price, or price and cost), the greater the incentive. If you’re selling at a price far greater than its unit cost, you are far more motivated to sell your product. On the flip side, if your product is priced far below the value and benefits you provide, a customer is more motivated to purchase your product.
Buyers vs Customers
To take it a step further, if you’re planning to scale your startup, what you’re looking for our customers, not buyers. Buyers are people who purchase your product once, and never again. They learned from their mistake. Your product either didn’t deliver the value you promised or the value they thought you would deliver. Customers are repeat purchasers. Why? Because they love your product. It addresses your customers’ needs (and ideally more) again and again. Your customers’ satisfaction is evergreen, rather than ephemeral.
When you only have buyers, you have to push your product to others. It’s the epitome of a door-to-door salesperson. Think Yellow Pages.
When you have customers, you feel the pull. Customers are drawn to you. They come back willingly on their own two feet. As Calvin French-Owen, co-founder of Segment, once said: “The biggest difference between our ideas pre-PMF vs. when we found it was this feeling of pull. Before we had any sort of fit, it always felt like we had to push our ideas on other people. We had to nag people to use the product.”
Value-based pricing is playing to win. Cost-plus pricing is playing to not lose. While the latter is convenient strategy when you’re a local business not looking to scale (i.e. coffee shop, local diner, local auto parts store, etc.), it’s incredibly difficult to scale with, especially as customer needs evolve. As you scale, your customers might include anyone from Microsoft who wants you to bring a sales engineer to integrate your product to a 5-person startup team who’s just testing your product out. With cost-plus pricing, you’ll be forced to determine price points on a case-by-case scenario. With value-based pricing, you can systemize dynamic pricing based on evolving customer needs. As their value received goes up, the price does too.
As the name suggests, to generate pull, we have to start from value. In this case, your value metric.
This week I revisited David Sacks’ essay Your Startup Is a Movement. It was first brought to my attention during my conversation with Yin Wu, founder of Pulley. And again, with a friend who recently jumped into venture after an operating career, particularly around the topic of our investment theses. Our conversation underscored his fourth point in his Movement Marketing playbook.
It’s much easier to compete in the market of one – the only one – than in a market to be the best one. As some VCs call it, companies that are “allergic to competition.”
Why?
The goal for any startup is to achieve product-market fit before your competitors, especially your incumbents, notice the market opportunity. Frankly, the incumbents have more cash, more talent, more resources, more in every regard except one… problem obsession. Insatiable desire to fundamentally change the way we live. And with that desire comes speed.
It reminds me of a time over a decade ago, right after the spectacular Olympics which put the greatest Olympian of all time on center stage. Our swim coach asked the team, “How do you beat Michael Phelps?”
A few of my teammates suggested we work longer and harder. Another suggested that we should’ve started younger. And another suggested we wait till he retired. But my coach responded, “Just don’t race against him in butterfly. Race him in breaststroke.” While Michael Phelps is by no means slow in breaststroke, still faster than 95% of swimmers out there in it, the theory holds. It’s the stroke one would have the best chance to beat him in. But what stood out to me most was what the wisecrack on the swim team shouted out as an answer.
“He can swim while I run.”
And he was right.
Another fascinating aspect I realized in hindsight was that no one suggested the question was impossible.
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A number of founders ask me for fundraising advice. While they come in different magnitudes, one of the common themes is: “I’ve had many investor meetings, but I still can’t get a term sheet. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to do or to say to get a yes?”
To preface, I don’t have the one-size-fit-all solution. Neither do I think there is a one-size-fit-all solution. Each investor is looking for something different. And while theses often rhyme, the “A-ha!” moment for each investor is a culmination of their own professional and life experiences. This anecdote is, by no means, prescriptive, but another perspective that may help you when fundraising, if you’re not getting the results you want. This won’t help you cheat the system. If you still have a shoddy product or an unambitious team, you’re still probably not going to get any external capital.
One thing I learned when I was on the operating side of the table is: When you want money, ask for advice. When you want advice, ask for money. It’s, admittedly, a slightly roundabout way to get:
Investor interest,
And reference points for milestones to hit.
But it’s worked for me. Why? Because you’re fighting in a highly-competitive, heavily-saturated market of attention – investor attention. This method merely helps you increase the potential surface area of interaction and visibility, to give you time in front of an investor to prove yourself.
Investors are expected to jump into a long term marriage with founders, while, for the most part, only given a small cross-section in your founding journey to evaluate you. It’s as if you chose to marry someone for life you’ve only met 60-90 days ago. While angels and some people have the courage and the conviction to do that, most investors like to err on the side of caution. Contrary to popular belief, venture capitalists are extremely risk-averse. They look for risk-adjusted bets. And if you can prove to them – either through traction or an earned secret – that you’re not just a rounding error, you’ll make their lives a lot easier.
So, let me elaborate.
When you want money, ask for advice.
As you’re growing your business and you want to show you are, ask investors for advice. Tell them. “So I’ve been growing at X% MoM, and I’ve gotten to Y # of users. I’m thinking about pursuing this Z as my next priority. And this is how I plan to A/B test it. What do you think?”
And if you keep these investors in the loop the entire time and ask and follow-up on their advice, at some point, they’d think and ask, “Damn, this is an epic business. Will you just take my money?”
So, what are good numbers?
The Rule of 40 is a rough rule of thumb many investors use for consumer tech markets. Month-over-month growth rate plus profit should be greater than or equal to 40. So you can be growing 50% MoM, but burning money with -10% profit, aka costs are greater than your revenue. Or you can be growing 30% MoM, but gaining 10% profit every month. And if you’ve got 10s of 1000s of users, you’re on solid ground. Better yet, one of the biggest expenses is increasing server capacity costs.
For more reference points on ideal consumer startup numbers, check out this blog post I wrote last year.
For enterprise/B2B SaaS, somewhere along the lines of 10-15% MoM growth. With at least 1 key customer logo. And 5 publicly referenceable customers.
Of course, the Rule of 40 did not age well for certain industries in 2020.
When you want advice, ask for money.
When you ask for money most of the time, investors, partners, and potential customers will say no, especially if you’re super early on and don’t have a background or track record as an entrepreneur. So when they do say no, I like to ask them one of my favorite questions: “What do I need to bring you for you to unconditionally say yes?” Then, they’ll tell me what they want to see out of our product or our business. These, especially if they’re reinforced independently across multiple different individuals in your ecosystem, should be your North Star metrics. And when you do put their advice to action, be sure to follow up with the results to their implemented advice.
You either do what they recommended. And show them what happened. And what’s next.
Or you don’t do what they recommended. But show that you heavily considered their recommendation. What you did instead. Why you chose to do what you did instead. And what’s next.
To take it one step further, once I ask the above question to have a reference point for growth trajectory, I ask: “Who is the smartest person(s) known to achieve X (or in Y)?” with X being the answer you got via the previous question. And Y being the industry you’re tackling.
Then, go to that person or those people and say, “Hey Jennifer, [investor name] said if there’s one person I had to talk to about X, I have to talk to you.” Feel free to use my cold email “template” as reference, if you’re unsure of what else to say.
If you use this tactic again and again, eventually you’ll build a family of unofficial (maybe even official) mentors and advisors, even if you never explicitly call them that. Not necessarily asking for money all the time. But asking for money might help you ignite the spark for this positive feedback loop.
In closing
When I was on the operating side, a brilliant founder with 2 multi-million dollar exits once told me: “Always be selling. Always be fundraising. And always be hiring.”
I didn’t really get it then. In fact, I didn’t get it the entire time I was on the other side of the table. What do you mean “Always be fundraising”? Should I just be asking for money all the time? What about the business?
It wasn’t until I made my way into VC at SkyDeck that I realized the depth of his words. Keep people you eventually want to fundraise from and hire in the loop about what you’re building. Keep them excited. Build a relationship beyond something transactional. Build a friendship.
Jeff Bezos put it best when he said:
“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.
“At Amazon we like things to work in five to seven years. We’re willing to plant seeds, let them grow and we’re very stubborn. We say we’re stubborn on vision and flexible on details.”
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