Last week, I was chatting with an LP about decision-making processes at institutional LPs, whether a large family office or a pension or an endowment. And I asked her:
“When you come across a new investment opportunity, do you often find yourself starting from a yes and working to find ways to disprove yourself to get to a no? Or do you start from a no, then spend the next few years working your way to get to a yes?”
(To be honest, I could have phrased the question. But alas, you get the gist.)
She gave a light chuckle. Thought for a moment. And said, “In the first conversation I have with a GP, I either get to a quick no or a tentative yes. And in the next few months, I try to find signs of why this investment could be a no. But if I don’t find any strong disproving evidence in that exploration, that’s when we choose to invest.”
Of course, she’s not alone. I haven’t actively gone out to measure the distribution. But out of 20 or so LPs I’ve asked, I’d say anecdotally, it’s about half who start from a yes, and half who start from a no.
There’s no hard and fast rule here. But what I seemed to notice is that it depends heavily on how easily people get to conviction.
Some people are more prone to saying yes. They get easily excited about new opportunities. The feeling of love at first sight. As such, their investment process accounts for that by delaying gratification and impulse purchases. The discipline of their investment process allows to take time to find clues that may either prove or disprove their intuition.
Among thousands, if not tens of thousands of opportunities, for others, it’s easier to say no. Most LPs don’t have a time horizon they have to commit capital before, barring fund of funds, and potentially some large institutions who act as fiduciaries for others’ capital. Unlike a GP whose mandate is potentially stage-specific, to most LPs, a Fund I commitment versus a Fund II or a Fund III is virtually the same to them. If a pre-see-only fund says no at the pre-seed, they lose that window of opportunity because they’re not allowed to invest net new checks at seed or Series A.
For LPs, this takes the possibility of a near-term transactional relationship out. Then as the relationship matures over time, one might stumble across something about a GP that gets them over the activation energy to dig deeper. And eventually, when enough evidence is collected, they’ll pull the trigger. More often than not, it’s not “enough evidence,” but rather enough time to realize the one or two brilliant things about a GP.
Photo by Diane Picchiottino on Unsplash
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The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
