I was doomscrolling through Twitter when I stumbled on Samir Kaji‘s recent tweet:
A reason that emerging managers have done so well in early funds is not due to smaller funds sizes but because when gp/thesis is often strongest. Return atrophy usually happens when thesis drift happens at a magnitude that is more significant and faster than firm evolution.
I’ve written before that the difference between an emerged fund manager and an emerging manager is one’s raised a Fund III and the other hasn’t.
In Fund I, you’re selling a promise – a dream – to your LPs. That promise is often for angels, founders, and other GPs who write smaller checks. You’re split testing among various investments, trying to see what works and what doesn’t. More likely than not, you’re taking low to no management fees, and only carry. No reserve ratio either. And any follow-on checks you do via an SPV, with preference to your existing LPs. You’re focused on refining your thesis.
In Fund II, you’re pitching a strategy – the beginnings of pattern recognition of what works and what doesn’t. You’re thesis-driven.
Fund III, as Braughm Ricke says, “you’re selling the returns on Fund I.” On Fund III and up, many fund managers start deviating from their initial thesis – minimally at first. Each subsequent fundraise, which often scales in zeros, is a lagging indicator of your thesis and strategy. And across funds, the thesis becomes more of a guiding principle than the end all, be all of a fund. There are only a few firms out there that continue to exercise extreme fundraising discipline in. Which, to their credit, is often hard to do. ‘Cause if it’s working, your LPs want to put more money into you. And as your fund size scales, so does your strategy.
Subsequently, it becomes a race between the scalability of a fund’s strategy and fund size.
Softbank’s mistake
In 2017, Softbank’s Vision Fund I (SVF I) of $100B was by far the largest in the venture market. In fact, 50 times larger than the largest venture funds at the time. Yet, every time they made a bad bet, the media swarmed on them, calling them out. The reality is that, proportionally speaking, Softbank made as many successful versus unsuccessful bets as the average venture fund out there. To date, SVF I’s portfolio is valued at $146.5 billion, which doesn’t put it in the top quartile, but still performs better than half of the venture funds out there. But bigger numbers warrant more attention. Softbank has since course-corrected, opting to raise a smaller $40B Fund II (which is still massive by venture standards), with smaller checks.
While there are many interpretations of Softbank’s apparent failure with SVF I (while it could be still too early to tell), my take is it was too early for its time. Just like investors ask founders the “why now” question to determine the timing of the market, Softbank missed its “why now” moment.
Bigger funds make sense
I wrote a little over a month ago that we’re in a hype market right now. Startups are getting funded at greater valuations than ever before. Investors seem to have lost pricing discipline. $5 million rounds pre-product honestly scare me. But as Dell Technologies Capital‘s Frank told me, “VCs have been mispricing companies. We anchor ourselves on historical valuations. But these anchors could be wrong.” Most are vastly overvalued, yet future successes are grossly undervalued.
Allocating $152 billion into VC funds, LPs are excited about the market activity and that the timeline on returns are shorter. Namely:
Exits via SPAC,
Accelerated timelines because of the pandemic (i.e. healthcare, fintech, delivery, cloud computing, etc.)
And secondary markets providing liquidity.
We’ve also seen institutional LPs, like pension funds, foundations, and endowments, invest directly into startups.
Moreover, we’re seeing growth and private equity funds investing directly into early-stage startups. To be specific over 50 of them invested in over $1B into private companies in 2021 so far.
As a result of the market motions, the Q2 2021 hit a quarterly record in the number of unicorns minted. According to CB Insights, 136 unicorns just in Q2. And a 491% YoY increase. As Techcrunch’s Alex Wilhelm and Anna Heimputs it, “Global startups raised either as much, or very nearly as much, in the first two quarters of 2021 as they did in all of 2020.”
Hence, we see top-tier venture funds matching the market’s stride, (a) providing opportunity for their LPs to access their deal flow and (b) meeting the startup market’s needs for greater financing rounds. Andreessen recently raised their $400M seed fund. Greylock with their $500M. And most recently, NFX with their $450M pre-seed and seed Fund III.
In his analysis of a16z, writer Dror Poleg shares that “you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power if you keep your money in so-called safe assets, and a handful of extremely successful investments capture most of the available returns. Investors who try to stay safe or even take risks but miss out on the biggest winners end up far behind.” The a16z’s, the Greylocks and the NFXs are betting on that risk.
Fund returners are increasingly harder to come by
As more money is put into the private markets, with startups on higher and higher valuations, unicorns are no longer the sexiest things on the market. A unicorn exit only warrants Greylock with a 2x fund returner. With the best funds all performing at 5x multiples and up, you need a few more unicorn exits. In due course, the 2021 sexiest exits will be decacorns rather than unicorns. Whereas before the standard for a top performing fund was a 2.5%+ unicorn rate, now it’s a 2.5% decacorn rate.
The truth is that in the ever-evolving game of venture capital, there are really only a small handful of companies that really matter. A top-tier investor once told me last year that number was 20. And the goal is an investor is to get in one or some of those 20 companies. ‘Cause those are the fund returners. Take for example, Garry Tan at Initialized Capital, earlier this year. He invested $300K into Coinbase back in 2012. And when they went public, he returned $2B to the fund. That’s 6000x. For a $7M fund, that’s an incredible return! LPs are popping bottles with you. For a half-billion dollar fund, that’s only a 4x. Still good. But as a GP, you’ll need a few more of such wins to make your LPs really happy.
I also know I’m making a lot of assumptions here. Fees and expenses still to be paid back, which lowers overall return. And the fact that for a half-billion dollar seed fund, check sizes are in the millions rather than hundreds of thousands. But I digress.
There is more capital than ever in the markets, but less startups are getting funded. The second quarter of this year has been the biggest for seed stage activity ever, measured by dollars invested. Yet total deal volume went down.
Each of these startups will take a larger percentage of the public attention pie. Yet, most startups will still churn out of the market in the longer run. Some will break even. And some will make back 2-5x of investor’s money. Subsequently, there will still be the same distribution of fund returners for the funds that make it out of the hype market.
In closing
As funds scale as a lagging indicator of today’s market, the discipline to balance strategy and scale becomes ever the more prescient. We will see bigger flops. “Startup raises XX million dollars closes down.” They might get more attention in the near future from media. Similarly, venture capitalists who empirically took supporting cast roles will be “celebretized” in the same way.
The world is moving faster and faster. As Balaji Srinivasan tweeted yesterday:
But as the market itself scales over time, the wider public will get desensitized to dollars raised at the early stages. And possibly to the flops as well. Softbank’s investment in Zume Pizza and Brandless turned heads yesterday, but probably won’t five years from now. It’s still early to tell whether a16z, Greylock, NFX, among a few others’ decisions will generate significant alphas. I imagine these funds will have similar portfolio distributions as their smaller counterparts. The only difference, due to their magnitudes, is that they’re subject to greater scrutiny under the magnifying glass. And will continue to stay that way in the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, I’m thrilled to see speed and fund size as a forcing function for innovation in the market. There’s been fairly little innovation at the top of the funnel in the venture market since the 1970s. VCs meet with X number of founders per week, go through several meetings, diligence, then invest. But during the pandemic, we’ve seen the digitization of venture dollars, regulations, and new fund structures:
Quoting a good friend of mine, “It’s a good time to be alive.” We live in a world where the lines between risk and the status quo are blurring. Where signal and noise are as well. The only difference is an investor’s ability to maintain discipline at scale. A form of discipline never before required in venture.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
There’s a comical number of debates around where the team slide goes in a pitch deck. In fact, this blogpost may end being more of a meme than have any substantive value. Nevertheless, here’s to hoping that by the end of this essay, there’s some semblance of a call-to-action for you. The “too-long-don’t read” answer for the order of your team slide is… it depends.
Why “why you” is important
First, let’s start from the “facts”.
The earlier your company is, the more your team matters to an investor. The more mature your company is, the less it matters.
If your investor doesn’t understand your answer to the “why you” question, you’re not winning any gold medals, much less a check.
Investors have, effectively, three questions they want answered in the intro meeting.
Why now?
Why this?
And, why you?
“Why now” tells an investor why they should look into the space. “Why this” tells an investor why they should look at the solution. But if we’re being completely honest, if an investor is a specialist and not a generalist, and even if they were the latter, you’re not the first person who’s brought up the exact same “why now” and “why this”. Even if you answer the first two questions perfectly, there’s still no reason as to why you should be the one to take this product to market. Investors, if they were more blunt, would just thank you for your market research.
On the other hand, if you can answer the “why you” question, you give them a reason to have a second conversation with you. And the whole goal of the intro meeting is to have the second meeting. Not to get the check. Don’t skip steps. As a footnote, your mileage will vary with angel investors and micro funds. For them, speed is their competitive advantage, not their check size nor possibly their network or resources. While they will try to be helpful, they’re not a platform – yet. If you answer the “why you”, in the worst case scenario, your investors won’t regret backing the startup. You just weren’t lucky. But they’d probably be willing to back you again if you started another business.
The reason why so many VCs regress back to metrics and traction is because you’ve failed to answer the “why you” question.
Founders haven't sold them on the "why you" so they regress to finding answers for "why this" and "why now", which typically come in the form of lagging indicators like rev and traction
Based on the above “facts”, the younger your startup is, the earlier you should put the team slide. To give investors context as to who you are. This matters a bit more for partnership meetings, as well as if this is a (relatively) cold pitch. That is, to say, if you AND your co-founders don’t have a prior relationship with the people you are pitching to, move the team slide to the beginning.
Eniac Ventures, an incredible seed-stage firm, recently wrote, “We believe that it should probably be slide 1 or 2. That’s because investors want to become familiar with the people behind the product early on, whether we’re flipping through the deck or you’re pitching us directly. When the team slide is second, it also gives you a great opportunity to walk investors through your background and impress upon them why your unique set of experiences makes you and your team the best one to build and scale the product.”
In closing
But, that might not be the case for you. The investors you pitch might have a different set of priorities. I always go back to the question: When going into the meeting, if the investor could only ask one question, what is the one question they need the answer for to give them enough of a reason to take the second meeting?
Then your pitch deck should be in that order of priority.
If you’re tackling a problem most people care little about or where it’s non-obvious, talk about the problem first.
If it’s not a revolutionary product and it already makes sense, talk about why you and your team are the best equipped to tackle this problem.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
I recently read Fable‘s Padmasree Warrior‘s breakdown of leadership lessons. Prior to Fable, she held executive positions at Motorola, Cisco, and NIO and currently serves on Microsoft and Spotify’s board. Out of all the insights she shared, I couldn’t help but reach out on one intriguing point she brought up: “Hire for expertise, not experience.”
Expertise ≠ Experience
Before reading the blogpost on her, I had never thought of expertise and experience as two separate wheelhouses of knowledge. While there is definitely some overlap, as Holly Liu, founder of Kabam, says:
Expertise and experience are similar, but not the same. It is to no surprise most people often conflate the two, myself included. Experience is a record of past events. Expertise is your ability to leverage experience to positively influence the outcome of future events.
I’m reminded of something Henry Ford once said. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Experience would have dictated faster horses. Expertise would have dictated why we once chose horses over other modes of transportation. And the framework to think about transportation in the next century.
Hiring for expertise
When I asked Padma, “What kinds of questions do you ask potential hires to measure on expertise rather than experience?”
She responded: “I usually as ‘if X happened what would you do?’ ‘If there is nothing here… how would you start a product?'”
I followed up with a David classic: “If I can be completely selfish one more time, and I understand if you don’t have the time, for the question, ‘if there is nothing here, how would you start a product?’ or similar ones, what differentiates between a good answer and a great answer?”
Padma added: “If someone says ‘I did this at such and such’ – wrong answer. I look for ‘I would start with … then do… then grow’.”
Everyone’s guilty of a bit of revisionist’s history when looking in hindsight. It’s in our DNA. We are the only species that create narratives from seemingly disparate data points. After talking with multiple recruiters, executives, and CEOs on the topic, I realized there is often a tendency for people connect their past achievements together and sound like they knew exactly what they were doing all along. But in foresight, that often isn’t true. There’s a lot of guesswork and uncertainty when looking through the windshield, compared to images that often seem closer in the rearview mirror.
To follow up on Padma’s thoughts, I had to ask my former professor, Janet Brady, the former Head of Marketing and Head of Human Resources for Clorox, about hiring for expertise. “I’m a big fan of situational interviewing, where I ask ‘What would you do if…?’ In the process, I am looking for (a) how would this come up, and (b) how would they approach the problem. It’s easy to make the puzzle pieces fit and make up narratives in the past, but much harder when given a situation to deal with on the spot.”
As with any matter, things are not as binary as they first seem to be. She concedes that there is validity in asking about experience as well. But the context around experience is often more insightful than the experience itself. Brady shared, “You never do something alone. If you see a turtle on top of a fence post, you don’t know how it got there, but you know it had help.” How many people were on your team? What was your role on the team? What problems did you run into? And how did you deal with those problems?
But one of her interview questions in particular stood above the crowd for me. “What did you do in this role that no one else in this role has done?” While past achievements aren’t always predictors of future progress, in this case, what you’re looking for aren’t anecdotes but general themes in life, specifically, the ability to question the status quo and act on it.
Echoing Brady’s questions on problems a hire has faced, what might be more interesting is what didn’t work out in the past. The scar tissue someone’s accumulated over the years. Marco Zappacosta of Thumbtack loves the question: “What’s your biggest professional regret?”. And he elaborates, “I’m under no illusions that I’m hiring perfect people, but I want to make sure I’m hiring people who are self-aware of being imperfect.”
Put into practice
SaaStr’s Jason Lemkin shared a great example in his blogpost. How the expertise of VPs of Marketing differ depending on what stage of a company’s maturity they earned their stripes. A corporate marketer’s experience might translate poorly to running marketing at a startup. Equally so, a seed-stage startup marketer’s job might carry much less significance in a Fortune 500 role.
Corporates focus on corporate marketing and brand marketing. A form of marketing that’s “all about protecting and reinforcing the brand once you are way past scale.” It’s less about getting your brand recognized since customers have already heard of your brand. It’s about getting potential customers over the activation energy required before making a buying decision. As Jason puts it, “the brand creates so many leads and customers all on its own.”
Startups, on the other hand, are all about demand generation. In other words, generating leads. It’s a numbers game. Spend X dollars to get Y leads, that generate five times of $X of revenue. The equivalent of an LTV-to-CAC ratio of 5x. At the same time, he notes that “brand marketing is very expensive in the early days – and frustratingly, generates zero leads.”
Someone with Z years of marketing experience might have a lot of scar tissue, but might not be able to solve the marketing problem for your startup. Demand gen folks can’t hide anywhere if they don’t get results, but corporate marketing folks can hide behind a brand. Focus on finding the expertise you need rather than the years of experience that might look sexy on a resume or on a pitch deck. As always they’re not mutually exclusive, but it’s important to know the difference.
Who knows? Maybe the next generation of lead gen is all about Twitter presence and memes, as a16z’s Andrew Chen recently tweeted.
Bottoms up SaaS founder to Enterprise sales founder:
On a bigger picture, the process of sales and marketing is a form of free education for a customer base. The better you can get your users to understand what you’re building, the more likely they will buy. Memes are just another medium of analogy and education. Better yet, of storytelling.
The better you can weave together seemingly disparate data points to create a compelling narrative without confounding extraneous variables, the greater your level of expertise. As Packy McCormick, one of my favorite writers, wrote on an a16z blogpost on expertise, “We live in a world where expertise can be justly claimed by anyone who can continue to prove it. Synthesis and storytelling are the keys to navigating that world. In a world with so much information available and fewer unquestioned experts, the ability to let large amounts of information wash over you, figure out where to dive deep, pull out the most compelling bits, and tie them all together is key.”
In closing
Hiring great talent across all levels breaks down to less of how many years of experience, but more so how you can leverage those experiences to understand and use unique and seemingly disparate data points going forward. Fall forward; don’t fall backward. An expert hire might not have all the answers to your problems, but will have built stress-tested mental models that’ll help in finding the answers for the questions you have.
Back when I was at SkyDeck, Caroline taught me that great entrepreneurs follow the “scientific method of entrepreneurship.” If I were to analogize her idea to expertise, an expert is a champion of the “scientific method of application.”
Of all the experts I’ve met – a title which is often one that society has deemed rather than being self-prescribed – they’ve almost always had an answer or multiple to a certain question. What proof would it take for you to change your mind?
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Not too long ago, in the sunbathed streets outside of Maison Alysée, I was chatting with an incredible serial entrepreneur backed by some of the greatest names in the venture world, who also happened to have spent some time at my favorite VR startup. All in all, he knew what he was talking about. But to respect his privacy, I’ll call him James. And James said something that was quite the head-turner.
“I never got a check for sending the pitch deck before the meeting.”
And so began my deep dive into the contrarian thinking that led to the above statement.
Why the pitch deck might not work
As an armchair expert on films I like, my favorite films have never fit my rubric of the perfect story. Rather, my rubric of the perfect story was shaped by my favorite films.
A pitch deck, like any other rubric, is a pre-ordained set of words and pictures that follow “industry’s best practices”. The problem, solution/product, why now, market size, team, traction, competitors, business model, and financial projections. Most pitch decks don’t deviate too far from the afore-mentioned order. Nevertheless, at the end of the day, rubricsare lagging indicators of what worked. They rarely serve as predictors of what will work, yet we prescribe a disproportionately high amount of trust to their predictive qualities.
“Fundraising is hard”
“You can do everything right – you go through all the steps, do the CRM, get the emails, get the introductions, give the pitches – you do it textbook, and you won’t get a dollar. Fundraising is hard.”
Naturally, I had to ask James what he did to secure funding without sending the pitch deck. James shared, “I never really think about ‘fundraising’, like I mentioned when we chatted I do try to keep track of things but that’s more so that I don’t over-email folks. I never write one email and then send it to a lot of people. Every email I write, I write personally.”
Pitch with emotion
“How do you close somebody? It’s not with spreadsheets and numbers. It’s with emotion. A good pitch gets people over the activation energy [necessary] of actually investing in your business. There are plenty of companies who are making $10 million a month and didn’t raise a dollar. There are plenty of companies who didn’t make a dollar ever and raise a $100 million bucks.”
Every pitch is a story. And often times, the best narrative you can tell isn’t in a 10-megabyte presentation filled with numbers and letters or a Docsend link, based on a rubric that your audience decided. There’s rising and falling action. There’s also you, the underdog, who embarks on a hero’s journey to change the world. What does the world look like today? What will it look like without you tomorrow? Against seemingly impossible odds and guided by the fortune of luck (timing, why now?) and grit, why is the future you envision, with you in it, inevitable?
You can also see it in action in their pitch that got a16z to lead their $68M Series A.
“Always bring the value”
“People are busy, especially the people you’re pitching. Teach them something. They wanna learn. They wanna walk out of that meeting and remember you and make their life a little bit better. And one way to do this is to bring value that they didn’t have before.
“This is also a self-selector. If you don’t do this, they’re not going to call you back. You want to be interesting. You want the other person to walk away thinking that was fun.
“Unfortunately, this is what a lot of founders don’t do. They treat these meetings like work. ‘We’re going to walk in with a strategy. We’re going to stick to the script.’ The other people on the other side never ask any questions. They say ‘see ya later’ and you never hear from them ever again.”
In many ways, this is what many investors call the ‘secret sauce‘. Do you know something that the other person doesn’t? Can you connect the dots in a way that the other person has never thought about? Have you inspired the other person where after the meeting and the ‘A-ha!’ moment they do something about it?
For people who are obsessed and really passionate, their passion is often contagious. One doesn’t have to be an investor or a subject-matter expert to know and feel that. And when inspired, the other person acts as an extension of the energy you brought to the conversation. It could be in the form of work, writing, invites, or intros. These second-order effects might not always come immediately. But rather eventually. This is what James calls “manufacturing serendipity”.
On asking for intros
I asked James, “Did you ever ask for the intros or did they come quite organically?”
And what he shared truly set him apart from 99% of founders I’ve met with. “People always say ‘how can I help?’ Some don’t mean it. And this works for them too because quickly, you figure who’s who. But always have an answer. Not like ‘intro me to some people.’ But ‘hey, I saw you know so and so, and I’d love to chat with them – would you mind introducing me?’ Having one to two things is the sweet spot.
“Do all of the leg work. Help them help you as much as possible. Everyone wants to be the hero that helps someone else, but people have lives – and if you’re the one that is getting the value, bring the value as much as possible.” Provide the person making the introduction with all the context and reasons for the other person to say yes.
It echoes much of my personal template I tell folks if they want an intro to an investor that consists of three parts – no more, no less:
The one metric they’re nailing (ideally so much better than the rest of the industry
Short 1-2 lines on what you’re building and why
What makes that one investor the best dollar on your cap table – why it has to be her or him, and no one else
The metric gives the investor a reason to click open the email. The blurb shares the context. And the last, and, in my opinion, the most important part gives the investor the reason – the story – they need to be a hero. You might notice how much a founder is raising isn’t “required material”. Capital is secondary to the story you pitch. While based on some hard facts, startup investing is often an emotional decision. As James said, “Money doesn’t build products; people do.”
In closing
There’s a lesson I took from my time at SkyDeck, and have continued to preach ever since. “Always be fundraising.” And I don’t mean ask for money in every waking moment. In fact, you shouldn’t. Not only are you at risk in sounding like a broken record, you will end up sacrificing time you could be spending on building your product. But always be pitching. Always be getting other people excited about what you’re working on and why that’s so important. Not why should the world be excited about your product, but why that person in particular should be.
Build relationships. Build a fanbase before you need to fundraise. Add value in every conversation. And the ripple effects would come back tenfold. James went on to say, “I would meet with anyone, [and] still do. If they liked what I was doing, they’d intro me either to an investor that might be into it or another company that had an investor that might be into it.”
James truly has a magnetic energy. Every time we chat I learn something indispensable. After all, one of our conversations inspired this blogpost, which I imagine is the first of many more to come. So, it came as no surprise as he’s getting interest left and right on his new venture.
*Some quotes were edited for clarity and my lack of a photographic memory. Sorry.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Not too long ago, I quoted Phil Libin, founder of All Turtles and mmhmm (which has been my favorite virtual camera in and most likely post-pandemic), who said: “I think the most important job of a CEO is to isolate the rest of the company from fluctuations of the hype cycle because the hype cycle will destroy a company. It’ll shake it apart. In tech the hype cycles tend to be pretty intense.”
Hype is the difference in expectation and reality. Or more specifically, the disproportionate surplus of expectation. A month ago, Sarah Tavel at Benchmarkwrote: “Hype — the moment, either organic or manufactured, when the perception of a startup’s significance expands ahead of the startup’s lived reality — is an inevitability. And yet, it’s hard not to view hype with a mix of both awe and fear. Hype applied at the right moment can make a startup, while the wrong moment can doom it.”
Right now, we are in a hype market. And hype has taken the venture market by storm.
We’ve all been seeing this massive and increasing velocity and magnitude of capital deployment over the last few months. Startups are getting valued more and more. In the past, the pre-money valuations I was seeing ranged from 2-on-8 to 3-on-9. Or in not so esoteric VC jargon, $2M rounds on $8M pre-money valuations ($10M post-money) to $3M rounds on $9M pre-money valuations ($12M post-money). These days, I’ve been seeing 5-on-20 or 6-on-30. Some of which are still pre-traction, or even pre-product.
Founders love it. They’re getting capital on a discount. They’re getting greater sums of money for the same dilution. Investors who invested early love it. Their paper returns are going through the roof. When looking at IRR or TVPI (total value to paid-in capital – net measurement on realized and unrealized value), higher valuations in their portfolio companies are giving investors jet fuel to raise future funds. And greater exit values on acquisition or IPO mean great paydays for early investors. Elizabeth Yin of Hustle Fundsays “this incentivizes investors to throw cash at hyped up companies, instead of less buzzy startups that may be better run.”
Sarah further elaborated, “In the reality distortion field of hype, consumers lean in and invest in a platform with their time and engagement ahead of when they otherwise might have. They pursue status-seeking-work, not because they necessarily get the reward for it relative to other uses of their time, but because they expect to be rewarded for it in the future, either because of the typical rich-get-richer effect of networks, or just in the status of being an early adopter in something that ends up being big.” The same is true for investors investing in hyped startups. It’s status-seeking work.
Frankly, if you’re a founder, this is a good time to be fundraising.
Why?
Capital is increasingly digital.
There is more than one vehicle of early stage capital.
There are only two types of capital: Tactical capital and distribution capital.
1. Capital is increasingly digital.
Of the many things COVID did, the pandemic accelerated the timeline of the venture market. Pre-pandemic, when founders started fundraising, they’d book a week-long trip to the Bay Area to talk to investors sitting on Sand Hill Road. Most meetings that week would be intro meetings and coffee chats with a diverse cast of investors. Founders would then fly back to their home base and wait to hear back. And if they did, they would fly in once again. This process would inevitably repeat over and over, as the funnel grew tighter and tighter. And hopefully, at the end of a six-to-twelve month fundraise, they’d have one, maybe a few term sheets to choose from.
Over the past 18 months, every single investor took founder meetings over Zoom. And it caused many investors to realize that they can get deals done without ever having to meet founders in-person. Of course, the pandemic forced an overcorrection in investor habits. And now that we’re coming out of isolation, the future looks like: every intro meeting will now be over Zoom, but as founders get into the DD (due diligence) phases or in-depth conversations, then they’ll fly out to meet who they will marry.
It saves founders so much time, so they can focus on actually building and delivering their product to their customers. And,
VCs can meet many more founders than they previously thought possible.
This has enabled investors to invest across multiple geographies and build communities that breathe outside of their central hub or THE central hub – formerly the SF Bay Area. Rather, we’re seeing the growth of startup communities around the nation and around the world.
2. There is more than one vehicle for early stage capital.
While meetings have gone virtual, the past year has led to a proliferation of financing options in the market as well. Capital as jet fuel for your company is everywhere. Founders now have unprecedented optionality to fundraise on their terms. And that’s great!
Solo capitalists
Individual GPs who raise larger funds than angels and super angels, so that they can lead and price rounds. The best part is they make faster decisions that funds with multiple partners, which may require partner buy-in for investments.
Rolling funds
With their 506c general solicitation designation, emerging fund managers raise venture funds faster than ever and can start deploying capital sooner than traditional 506b funds.
Micro- and nano-VCs
Smaller venture funds with sub-ten million in fund size deploying strategic checks and often leverage deep GP expertise. No ownership targets, and can fill rounds fast after getting a lead investor.
Equity crowdfunding
Platforms, like Republic and SeedInvest, provide community-fueled capital to startups. Let your biggest fans and customers invest in the platform they want to see more of in the future. With recent regulations, you can also raise up to $5 million via non-accredited and accredited investors on these platforms.
Accelerators/incubators
Short three-month long programs, like Y Combinator, 500 Startups, and Techstars, that write small, fast checks (~$100K) to help you reach milestones. Little diligence and one to two interviews after the application. Often paired with an amazing investor and/or advisor network, workshops, powerful communities, and some, even opportunity funds to invest in your next round.
Syndicates/SPVs
Created for the purpose of making one investment into a company a syndicate lead loves, syndicates are another ad hoc way of raising capital from accredited investor fans, leveraging the brand of syndicate leads and deploying through SPVs. Or special purpose vehicles. I know… people in venture are really creative with their naming conventions. In turn, this increases discoverability and market awareness for your product.
SPACs and privates are going public again
Companies going public mean early employees have turned into overnight millionaires. In other words, accredited investors who are looking to grow their net worth further by investing in different asset classes. Because of the hype, investing in venture-scale businesses tend to be extremely lucrative. These investors also happen to have deep vertical expertise, high-value networks, as well as hiring networks to help startups grow faster. More investors, more early stage capital.
Growth and private equity are going upstream
Big players who usually sat downstream are moving earlier and earlier, raising or investing in venture funds and acceleration programs to capture venture returns. And as a function of such, LPs have increased percent distributions into the venture asset classes, just under different names.
Pipe
Pipe‘s existed before the pandemic, but founders have turned their eye towards different financing options, like Pipe. They turn your recurring revenue into upfront capital. Say a customer has an annual contract locked in with you, but is billed monthly. With Pipe, you can get all that promised revenue now to finance your startup’s growth, instead of having only bits and pieces of cash as your customers pay you monthly. Non-dilutive capital and low risk.
3. There are only two types of capital: Tactical capital and distribution capital.
There’s an increasingly barbell distribution in the market. Scott Kupor once toldMark Suster that: “The industry’s gonna bifurcate. You’re going to end up with the mega VCs. Let’s call them the Goldman Sachs of venture capital. Or the Blackrock of venture capital. And on the other end, you’re going to end up with niche. Little, small people who own some neighborhood whether it’s video, or payments, or physical security, cybersecurity, physical products, whatever. And people in the middle are going to get caught.”
Those “little, small” players have deep product and go-to-market expertise and networks. Their checks may be small. But for an early stage company still trying to figure out product-market fit, the resources, advice, and connections are invaluable to a startup’s growth. They’re often in the weeds with you. They check your blind side. And they genuinely empathize with the problems and frustrations you experience, having gone through them not too long ago themselves. Admittedly, many happen to be former or active operators and/or entrepreneurs.
On the flip side, you have the a16z’s and Sequoias on their 15th or 20th fund. Tried and true. Brilliant track record with funds consistently north of 25% IRR. Internal rate of return, or how fast their cash is appreciating annually. LPs love them because they know these funds are going to make them money. And as any investor knows, double down on your winners. More money for the same multiples means bigger returns.
The same is true for historical players, like Tiger, Coatue, and Insight, who wire you cash to scale. They assume far less risk. Which admittedly means a smaller multiple. And to compensate for a lower multiple, they invest large injections of capital. By the time you hit scale, you already know what strategies work. All you need is just more money in your winning strategies.
You find product-market fit with tactical capital. You find scale with distribution capital.
Product-market fit is the process of finding hype. When you stop pushing and start finding the pull in the market. Scale is the process of manufacturing hype.
The bear case
But there are downsides to hype. Last month, Nikhil, founding partner at Footwork, put it better than I ever could.
If I could add an 8th point to Nikhil’s analysis, it’d be that investors in today’s market are incentivized to “pump and dump” their investments. Early stage investors spike up the valuations, which leads to downstream investors like Tiger Global, Coatue, Insight, and Softbank doubling down on valuation bets. Once there’s a secondary market for private shares, early stage investors then liquidate their equity to growth investors who are seeking ownership targets, or just to get a slice of the pie. This creates an ecosystem of misaligned incentives, where early stage investors are no longer in it for the long run with founders. Great fund strategy that’ll make LPs happy campers, but it leaves founders with uncommitted, temporary partners.
Sundeep Peechu of Felicis Ventures has an amazing thread on how getting the right founder-investor fit right is a huge value add. And getting founder-investor fit takes time, and sometimes a trial by fire as well. After all, it’s a long-term marriage, rather than a one-night stand. Those who don’t spend enough time “dating” before “marriage” may find a rocky road ahead when things go south.
By my count, ~30% of Felicis companies that have done well had trouble raising Series As in some fashion.
As an example, Matterport which went public last week had little appetite at the A. Non-recurring revenue, hardware business and selling to real estate was a triple whammy.
On a 9th point, underrepresented and underestimated founders are often swept under the rug. In a hype market, VCs are forced to make faster decisions, partly due to FOMO. With faster decisions, investors do less diligence before investing. Which to the earlier point of misaligned incentives, has amplified the already-existing notion of buyer’s remorse.
When VCs go back to habits of pattern recognition, they optimize for founder/startup traits they are already familiar with. And often times, their investment track record don’t include underrepresented populations. To play devil’s advocate, the good news is that there is also a simultaneous, but comparatively slow proliferation of diverse fund managers, who are more likely to take a deeper look at the problems that underestimated founders are tackling.
What kind of curve are we on?
When many others seem to think that this hype market will end soon, last week, I heard a very interesting take on the current venture market in a chat with Frank Wang, investor at Dell Technologies Capital. “VCs have been mispricing companies. We anchor ourselves on historical valuations. But these anchors could be wrong.
“We’re at the beginning of the hype and I don’t see it slowing down. VC has been so stagnant, and there hasn’t been any innovation in venture in a long time. Growth hasn’t slowed. And Tiger [Global] and Insight [Partners] is doing venture right. Hypothetically speaking, if you invest in everything, the IRR should be zero. They are returning 20% IRR because they seem to have found that VC rounds are mispriced. So, there can be an arbitrage.
“There will be a 20% market correction in the future, but we don’t know if that’s going to happen after 100% growth, or correct then grow again. The current hype is just another set of growing pains.”
Part of me is scared for the market correction. When many founders will be forced to raise flat or down rounds. The fact is we haven’t had a serious market correction since 2009. It’s going to happen. It’s not a question of “if” but rather “when” and “how much”, as Frank acutely points out.
Investors who deploy capital fast win on growing markets – on bull markets. Or investors who deploy across several years, or what the afore-mentioned Mark Suster defines as having “time diversity“, who win on correcting markets – bear markets. Think of the former as putting all your eggs in one basket. And if it’s the winning basket, you’re seen as an oracle. If not, well, you disappear into obscurity. Think of the latter as diversifying your risk appetite – a hedging strategy. More specifically, (1) being able to dollar-cost average, and (2) having exposure to multiple emerging trends and platforms. You’re not gonna lose massive amounts of capital even in a bear market, but you also will be losing out on the outsized returns on a bull market.
Only time will tell how seriously the market will correct and when. As well as who the “oracles” are.
In closing
At the end of the day, there are really smart capital allocators arguing for both sides of the hype market. Like with all progress, the windshield is often cloudier and more muddled than the rearview mirror. As Tim Urban once wrote, “You have to remember something about what it’s like to stand on a time graph: you can’t see what’s to your right.“
And as founders are going to some great term sheets from amazing investors, I love the way Ashmeet Sidana of Engineering Capitalframes it earlier this year. “A company’s success makes a VC’s reputation; a VC’s success does not make a company’s reputation. In other words to take a concrete example, Google is a great company. Google is not a great company because Sequoia invested in them. Sequoia is a great venture firm because they invested in Google.”
Whether you, the founder, can live up to the hype or not depends on your ability to find distribution before your competitors do and before your incumbents find innovation. Unfortunately, great investors might help you get there with capital, but having them on your cap table doesn’t guarantee success.
Nevertheless, the interpretation of hype is always an interesting one. There will continue to be debates if a market, product, or trend is overhyped or underhyped. The former assumes that we are on track for a near-term logarithmic curve. The latter assumes an immediate future looking like an exponential curve. The interpretation is, in many ways, a Rorschach test of our perception of the future.
Over the course of human civilization, rather than an absolutely smooth distribution, we live something closer to what Tim Urban describes as:
If the regression line is the mean, then we’d see the ebbs and flows of hype looking something like a sinusoidal function. As Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
It won’t be a smooth ride. The world never is. But that’s what makes the now worth living through.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
There is an incredible wealth of people in this world who self-proclaim to have insights or secrets to unlocking insights. From parents to teachers to the wise soul who lives down the street. From coaches to gurus to your friendly YouTube ad. To mentors. To investors. While there are a handful who do have incredibly insightful anecdotes, their stories should serve as reference points rather than edicts of the future. Another tool in the toolkit. No advice is unconditionally right nor unconditionally wrong. All are circumstantial.
After all, a friend once told me: All advice is autobiographical.
The same is true for anything I’ve ever written. Including this blogpost in itself.
Over the past two weeks, as a first-time mentor, I’ve had the incredible fortune of working alongside and talking to some amazing founders at Techstars LA. At the same time, I was able to observe some incredible mentors at work. And in this short span of time so far, I’ve gotten to understand something very acutely. The dichotomy between mentors and investors. For the purpose of this blogpost, I’m going to focus on startup mentors, rather than other kinds of mentors (i.e. personal mentors). Although I imagine the two cohorts of mentors are quite synonymous.
While the two categories aren’t mutually exclusive, there are differences. A great mentor can be a great investor, and vice versa. But they start from two fundamentally different mindsets.
Investors/mentors
An investor tries to fit a startup in the mold they’ve prescribed. A mentor fits themselves into the mold a startup prescribes.
An investor thinks “Will this succeed?” A mentor thinks “Assuming this will succeed, how do we get there?”
An investor starts with “Why you?” A mentor starts with “Why not you?”
An investor evaluates how your past will help you get to your future. A mentor helps you in the present to get to your future.
An investor has a fiduciary responsibility to their investors (i.e. LPs). A mentor doesn’t. Or a mentor, at least, has a temporal responsibility to their significant other. Then again, everyone does to the people close to them.
An investor will be on your tail to hold you accountable because they’ve got skin in the game. A mentor might not.
You can’t fire your investor. You can theoretically “fire” your mentor. More likely, you’re going to switch between multiple mentors over the course of your founding journey.
An investor has a variable check size-to-helpfulness ratio. Who knows if this investor will be multiplicatively more helpful with intros, advice, operational know-how than the size of their check? A mentor has theoretically an infinite CS:H ratio. Check size, zero. Helpfulness, the sky’s the limit.
It’s also much harder to find a mentor than an investor, outside of startup communities, like On Deck and Indie Hackers, and acceleration and incubation programs, like Y Combinator and Techstars. Frankly, being a mentor is effectively doing free consultations over an extended period of time. And if you’re outside of these communities, the best way to bring on mentors is to bring them on as advisors with advisor equity. I would use Founder’s Institute’s FAST as a reference point. And Tim Ferriss‘ litmus test for bringing on advisors: If you could only ask 5-10 very specific questions to this person once every quarter, would they still be worth 0.5% of your company without a vesting schedule?
In closing
As I mentioned above, being a mentor and an investor isn’t mutually exclusive. The best investors are often incredible mentors. And some of the greatest mentors end up being investors into your startup as well. Having been in the venture world for a while, I’ve definitely seen all categories on this Venn diagram. Sometimes you need more of one than the other. Sometimes you need both. It’s a fluid cycle. And for the small minority of venture-scalable startups, it’s worth having both.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Founders often ask me what makes a VC say yes. Or what they need to do for a VC to say yes. Or what they need to do for me to say yes. TL;DR: it depends. On firm, partner, thesis, active conversations, stealth investments, next fund fundraising schedules, reserve ratios, implicit biases, and more. In sum, a million reasons. And even if I knew all the above, I still can’t guarantee a term sheet.
So I can’t say what’ll guarantee a VC yes. A term sheet. If I could, I’d be the one writing them. Nevertheless I do my best to help brilliant founders get funded. On the flip side, here’s what aren’t educated guesses, but guarantees. Or as close as one can get to a guarantee. A guaranteed no. An anti-playbook, if I might call it that. If it doesn’t help, I hope, at the very minimum, it provides you a few minutes of entertainment.
Not treating me as a human. This is less of a reason for me to get myself worked up. There are discriminatory, dismissive, bigoted people in the world. I get it. This is more of a problem for the founder when they’re looking to scale the team. Being a dick limits your ability to grow and/or empathize with the market. If you’re fine with treating me this way, then you’re definitely going to not bat an eyelid with other future hires, team members, investors, and customers. Equally true for any VCs/angels/investors out there.
Badmouthing others. This is more of a personal turnoff. We’re all intellectuals here. And it’s okay to have differing opinions of the world. But it’s not okay to talk behind others back. If you’re gonna badmouth others, I imagine the exact same for anyone else who gets on your bad side for whatever reason, including myself. Practice good social hygiene.
Complaining about your team/product. Complaining is a bit more nuanced. It’s fine from time to time, we’re human. I don’t expect you to be the perfect human, but a first meeting with me, as with any investor, is a first date. I want to hear about the bigger picture, the vision, the dream. Impress me. If you have time to complain during a 30-minute meeting, you’re probably not spending your time wisely. And if this is an intro meeting, you have yet to build up your social rapport with me to complain. Being frustrated about the market is fine. Being honest, introspective, and vulnerable is also fine. Your mileage may differ for the last part, but I love candid founders.
Lying. That goes without saying, if you’re lying about numbers or if I somehow find out that you are, then no. If you don’t know, you don’t know. If your numbers aren’t pretty, admit it. While I might not be able to help you get funded, I’ll do my best to help. If you don’t know something, admit it as well. And find out after. Going back to the earlier point, I love candid founders who have a bias to action.
Having an exit strategy slide. This is more true for larger $100M+ funds I send deals to. Having an exit makes sense for angels, and smaller funds, but larger funds need to look for fund returners and outsized winners, and an exit of XX/XXX million is not sexy at all.
Crazy, but not crazy and reasonable. This one is a new one, inspired by PG. It’s fairly rare, since I try to avoid putting myself in situations with crazy, especially cantankerous people. But it happens. If by any chance, you know your idea might err on the side of crazy, walk me through the logic of how you got there. Don’t just tell me “It makes sense to me” or “I know the industry better than you do.”
Lack of focus. It’s great if you want to do a million things, but saying you want to focus on everything means you’ll end up focusing on nothing. A lack of focus shows a lack of priorities. Focus and be able to back up why are you focusing on this at this point in time. I love Phil Libin‘s 4-year plan defined by one word for each year forward. You can find that plan here and here.
Asking for an intro without any context. “I saw you were connected with X on LinkedIn. Can you introduce us?” If that line pops up in the first 30 seconds of our first conversation, I’m running away. I need to know who you are, what you’re building, why it matters, and hell, why would this person you want to get introduced to is a good use of yours and their time. Build a relationship first. Don’t lead with the transaction. I am not an ATM machine. Neither are other people – investors or not.
Asking me to sign an NDA. Early on in my career, I admittedly signed a number of NDAs sent to me by founders. I love connecting brilliant people together, but if I have to get your permission each time I pass it to an investor or a potential advisor, it’s too much work for me. Frankly, I have other priorities. I get it; I’m a stranger. But I hope you can at least trust that I won’t run away with your idea or give it to a competitor. You have my word. If that isn’t enough for you, that’s fine. I’m just not your guy.
Asking the VC to do their work. “When we raise X dollars, we will do Y tasks.” I usually follow up on that statement with “What have you done so far to accomplish Y?” My least favorite founders are the ones who say something along the lines of, “We’ll worry about that when we get there.” Or “We were hoping our future investors will find someone for us.” We don’t expect you to know everything and everyone, nor do everything right, but we expect you to do some legwork to show you are learning. Show us that you’ve been scrappy, resourceful, and used what you had available to you.
Lack of self-awareness. “Where are you weak at?” If your answer is “Nothing” or “I’m good at everything”, that sends alarm bells to any investor. Which might also lead to a secondary question of “What do you need me for then?” A close cousin is one of my favorites: “What is your competition doing right?” If your answer is also “Nothing”, then you might need to do some market research and reconnaissance again. There’s a reason other customers are using your competitors’ and incumbents’ products. Find it out. On top of what they’re weak at. There’s a romanticized concept in Silicon Valley that every founder needs to be like Jobs with his reality distortion field. While it’s true you need to be able to help others see the future you’re seeing, you also have to deeply understand the realities of today of what’s stopping you from getting there.
Nothing’s changed since the last time we spoke. Investors invest on potential. A bet we make in a company is a bet that it has a chance to be as big as X tech giant in your space. Your ability to meet the demand in the market scales with the number of investment dollars in your company. That said, we expect movement. We expect deltas. And if your product really is inevitable in the market, you should be making progress with or without injections of capital. The latter, just at a slower pace. Venture capital is impatient capital. Also understand, 99% of businesses in the world don’t need VC dollars and operate incredibly well without venture investors.
You’re not obsessed about the product and the market. Building a scalable startup requires obsession. It requires you to lose sleep. You can’t just check out at 5 or 6pm. While I can’t measure that in the first meeting, a close proxy is how well you know the table stakes metrics of your business – net retention, CAC, LTV, growth, revenue, engagement rates – and more. In fact, obsessed founders usually tell me that they’ve already thought of and tried out the first 10 ideas I think of. Moreover they bring me back the results of their discovery. Obsession is contagious.
I have no idea what your product is or does. This is simple. If I walk out of our meeting and I still have no idea how to describe your product to others and why we need it in the world now, there’s no way I can confidently pitch your startup to the partners. Piggybacking off of the #14, if you’re obsessed about the product, you’ve told your story a million times and a million ways already. A few of which should have already resonated with select audiences. And even if it wasn’t to investors, you must’ve already told that same story to your customers. As a CEO/founder, you are the first and most important salesperson. In many ways, it means you have to push the sale. You have to get your customers to take action. I, admittedly, am a potential customer. A recipient of your sales strategy. And if I don’t get your pitch, it’s likely others might not as well. That said, for certain industries, like deep tech or biotech, I’m really, really dumb. So take my thoughts with a grain of salt.
This post was inspired by Jason Lemkin‘s blogpost, which I highly recommend checking out.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
In writing this blog, one of the greatest illusions I seemingly end up creating is that I know a lot. At least that’s what a handful of readers and friends have told me over the years. Truth is I don’t. And more often than not, I am learning and/or refining my thoughts as I am writing.
I’m gonna be honest. The script for this essay was going to be entirely different. In fact, I had exactly six hundred and eleven words written on another introduction to this piece. But in the past few weeks, I hit another seemingly insurmountable roadblock. Catalyzed by a conversation with a mentor who said: “David, you’ve confused movement with progress.” And she was right. The more I thought about it, the clearer it became. Snowballing upon itself until I realized how far I’ve gone when I mistook a compliment for an insult.
The more I read my previous intro, the more it sounded like total BS. Something someone would write never having experienced true self-doubt. I was my own harshest critic.
The irony of it all was that as I was interviewing other incredible individuals for the purpose of this blogpost, I felt I needed their advice below more than anyone else. In a way, I’m glad that some friends needed more time to collect and share their thoughts. In sum, this piece took me two months to put together. And every day, every minute, and every second was worth it.
As I’m writing this piece, I’m somehow reminded of a line Elizabeth Gilbert, author of Eat Pray Love, said in a 2016 interview with On Being, “Creative living is choosing the path of curiosity over the path of fear.”
The process
In concepting this essay, I spent more time than I’d like to admit beating myself up to get to the “right” phrasing of the question. And each time I thought I got closer to the “right” question, a day later, I would find myself second-guessing if people might even bother responding to a “lazy” question. A low-hanging fruit, so to speak. And the fallacy with a low-hanging fruit is that they’ve most likely been asked the same by others. Probably to the point of fatigue, paired with an eye roll. But the thing is… with the topic of self-doubt, it’s not a topic most people are comfortable sharing, much less in public. And equally so, are rarely asked a question on this topic. The flip side of the coin is that they too are less likely to answer such a question. In the end, I settled with a question I came up with two weeks prior.
Speaking on self-doubt, 25% of the people I reached out to in my existing network didn’t have time to respond. Another 20% refused within 24 hours. And another 20% agreed initially, but ended up refusing some time after the initial exchange.
In reaching out, I used a similar framework as I shared in my cold email template.
TL;DR: I’m writing a blogpost on self-doubt, and you were one of the first people I thought of in having been candid enough to share your life journey. What are some of the personal narratives, questions, or comments you find yourself regressing to when you’re filled with self-doubt?
The longer version: Recently, after sharing my own internal conflict (here and here), I had a number of friends and readers reach out to share their own struggles. With almost half of them mentioning at one point in time that “I wish I were like [insert role model’s name] because s/he seems to have it all down.”
But people, like you, are just as human and as real as the next person over. So, in my effort to use my humble platform to humanize the world around us, I thought you’d be one of the best to answer this question!
What are some of the personal narratives, questions, or comments you find yourself regressing to when you’re filled with self-doubt?
Because I also plan to share your answer in the form of a blog post, similar to a study I did last year, where I asked [names redacted] and some other great folks! By default, I will abstract your name from what you share. In this case, I will cite you as “[title]”. That said, if you’re open to me using your real name or would like a different “title”, please do let me know. If you’re curious as to why my default is not to include your name, this is why.
And I know your candor will help many more, like me, who are going, have gone, and will go through difficult times. So, thank you. I have nothing short of my deepest gratitude for not only your candor, your time, but also your willingness to share your thoughts with the amazing people in this world.
Warmest, David
My only ask
My only ask is that you stay open-minded as you read the below memoirs. For context, this has been the blogpost that I’ve gotten the greatest percentage and number of “No’s” from. In the forms of:
“This is not something I’m ready to share at this point in my life.”
“I’ve been too busy. Sorry.”
“I’m sorry. I don’t think I’ll have time to get to this.”
“I don’t think now is a good time for me to be involved unfortunately.”
It isn’t easy to share what each of my amazing friends have shared below. Some of which stories may never see the light of day without their courage. And I hope you let their authentic voice shine as much as, if not with more respect that you have given me all this time. On behalf of everyone here, thank you. Thank you for giving all of us the platform to share our most vulnerable selves.
Unless otherwise specified with their first and last name, the below names, listed in alphabetical order, are pseudonyms to respect the courage it took each and every one of them to share what they did: Andrei, Annie, Elijah, Harry, Liam, Lucas, Mateo, Mya, Stephanie, Zack
The question
What are some of the personal narratives, questions, or comments you find yourself regressing to when you’re filled with self-doubt?
“I have a rather conversational style of writing. I suspect it’s the product of some natural proclivities and the sheer joy that comes from clacking a keyboard.
“We live in a world where every action has the potential to be a performance. Performances, by their very nature, are meant to be judged—are they memorable? Funny? Heart-wrenching? All of us, whether we like it or not, are constantly on stage and constantly judged. Personally, I get stage fright, and don’t recall being consulted before I signed up for this part.
“My own vintage of self-doubt stems from being judged poorly by someone I need something from. I’m in a position of vulnerability, they’re in a position of power. An old turn of phrase from the Bible, later memorialized forever in A Knight’s Tale, captures what my psyche so desperately tries to avoid: “You have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting.” The external “they think I’m lacking” becomes the internal “I’m not good enough,” and by then I’m well stuck in the swamp of self-doubt.
“For me it’s the idea of being rejected, rather than rejection itself, that causes self-doubt to metastasize. As the CEO of a venture-backed startup, this is not ideal.
“Two months back I had a bad panic attack. Wave after wave of self-doubt assailed me for hours after the attack subsided. Just yesterday, I had the minor upwellings of another one. Both were caused by pitches I knew I bombed (ironically, both investors ended up investing). In a perfect world, one in which I am preternaturally confident, the opinion of others shouldn’t stir feelings of self-doubt. In the real world, I care very much what others think of me.
“It’s easy to build stories in our mind to validate self-doubt, especially in the early days of a company when you don’t have a ton of evidence to beat back the self-doubt. I’m still not sure what the evolutionary advantage is to this pattern, to play devil’s advocate against ourselves, but it’s real nonetheless. We all do it. And the cleverer the mind, the more insidious the arguments.
“When this happens, my mind runs to something my dad used to say: ‘What you think about me is none of my business.‘ If I ever get a tattoo, it will be these 10 words. There’s something comforting, almost even glib, that enables me to turn the corner more quickly than I normally would. It’s a well-trodden path that leads me back to positivity, outcome independence, and abundance mentality.
“Self-doubt is inevitable. So rather than trying to avoid it, focus on leaving it behind.”
Of course, I couldn’t help but include Taylor’s afterword as well.
“Unintentionally mirrored after one of my favorite writers, John Gierach. John muses on life’s richest veins and uses fly fishing as his vessel.”
A blessing in disguise
“Self-doubt may feel painful at first sight… but in essence it’s a real blessing… because it helps balance one’s ego + falling for believing in their own shit! If you are trying to learn new things and explore uncharted territories… it’s inevitable to have self doubt. It’s almost like having a sense of danger when you are venturing in extreme sports let’s say.”
– Andrei, Managing Director at a VC Firm with 10+ Funds
Lily pads
“When I start feeling self-doubt, my mind immediately regresses to ‘lily pads’ or landing places of past memories where I feel like I could have done something better. I start to overthink everything I wish I could have done differently in past roles or interactions, and get paralyzed with fear that I will have the same regrets in the future based on the next choices I make and actions I take.
“Here’s a few questions I regress to:
How did I trick someone into believing I was the right person for this job?
Will I ever be able to match the level of success I had with a previous project or was that the ultimate cap of my success?
Do other people perceive a mistake I made in the past with the same level of intensity? Are they as fixated on it or was it something that barely registered for them?
“The things that have helped:
I think through the advice I would give a friend, and then I try to be as gentle with myself (which is a hard thing to do).
I remember that the best wins in life come from taking risks, and assure myself that if I don’t feel some doubt, then I am not pushing myself to grow.
I keep a folder of compliments and nice feedback I have received, and I go back and read through a few threads to remind myself I have been able to get through things successfully in the past.”
– Annie, Head of PR
I followed up with Annie after, if she could shed some more color on what advice she gives to herself, as well as an example of a compliment she finds herself revisiting when she finds herself wrestling with self-doubt. And here’s what she shared:
On self-advice,
“Look at your success over weeks or months, rather than by the hour. A single day may not feel like you’ve achieved everything you set out to do or landed a milestone, but if you can Zoom out, you are doing it right.”
On compliments,
“In response to a tough email I once sent, an executive privately emailed me to compliment my professionalism and how I had organized my thoughts. That compliment resonated because I had put hours of thought into that response even though it was only a few paragraphs long, and it meant a lot to me to have someone validate my thought process and my output. When I am doubting myself and worried my instincts are off, I go back to that email. I also try to put it into action and go out of my way to compliment people now in similar situations, because I know how much of a difference a one-line compliment can make.”
An old friend
“Self-doubt (SD) is especially bad when I’m starting a new project. My first company was deeply personal and mission-driven but required a lot of upfront capital (like most of my savings). I was always pretty good at hyping myself up to start the project but then the flashbacks would come. I begin to think of my mom and the 14hr shifts she’s worked since 2002. I had been working towards affording her an early retirement at the time and SD reminded me that it could all go away in a second.
“One wrong move and I would revert our family back to poverty.
“It would be on me.
“These thoughts left me sleepless, and also [made me] lose excitement in other parts of my life too. It sucked but having gone through it, I now consider SD a friend. Not a friend I’d want to hang out with all the time but an old friend with good intention and zero sugar coat.
“I can be a reckless person at times and can trust SD to be there to remind me that I have a lot to fucking lose.
“It reminds me to be very careful and to hustle like I have everything to lose.
“Whatever causes SD’s intervention these days, I realize it must be really fucking important to me and worth a second thought.”
– Mya, Forbes 30 Under 30 Founder
When you lose
“Say I lose my biggest client and I start to be overwhelmed with self doubt, my go to thoughts / comments / narratives are:
Am I delusional about my abilities? Maybe I’m actually an idiot with an ego? Imposter
What if I had done this, done that. Every little time I wasn’t perfect becomes a possible moment that will come back to ruin me
I’ve always been unlucky and luck seems to be a big part of success, so maybe I’m doomed no matter what
“But then there’s also a deeper narrative:
Maybe I just don’t ACTUALLY want this. I just think I want this. And my soul just isn’t in it and therefore I will fail. I’m not self aware enough
We all die. Nothing matters… especially me and what I’m doing.
A lot of successful people seem miserable. Is this a rat race? Am i setting myself up to fail on what really matters
Overall inability to identify a reason for why I am doing something and why I am the one that can do it”
– Elijah, Venture-backed founder
Self-compassion
“When I think about narratives, I try to go back to the psychology of ‘self talk’–especially when it comes to reducing ‘negative self talk’. Through time, self awareness and an emphasis on reducing self criticism, has helped me to become less doubtful. The question of ‘Why are you doing this?’, if done with self compassion can be a great way to maintain focus and inspire creativity.
“In terms of negative self talk day to day, I try to look at things through the constructive criticism lens, rather than the self critic. The former allows for more creativity. Life can be a challenge, and patience with the process helps me to embrace more self confidence.”
– Zack, General Partner at Venture Firm/Podcast Host
When Zack shared this, I couldn’t help but recall Jack Kornfield‘s line, “If your compassion does not include yourself, it is incomplete.”
What’s next
“Great question.
“I wish I could be of specific help but I do not do ‘self doubt.’
“I have had many many many challenges and course changes in my life, but each one of them created a new path. There are times when I am disappointed that my path doesn’t go in the direction.
“I had originally predicted or hoped for, but I can’t remember ever feeling self doubt. That’s because I always know I will discover the way forward that does work for me in the moment. I tend to focus more on the ‘what to do next’ rather than the ‘why something happened.’ I tend to be very stoic in my assessment and dealings with challenges. I don’t like feeling bad so I tend to create plans pretty quickly to move through whatever challenges I have.
“I do my best to recognize progress and change and do my best to adjust to it as fast as possible in order to minimize discomfort. I also tend not to think of things as either good or bad… just events that happen. The only thing I know I have control of is my response to change. I can’t control much… including the tempo of change. I tend to not look backward as to ‘why’ things happen and focus on ‘what’ I may have done to cause them as well as ‘what’ I am going to do next. In essence, I don’t feel like a victim ever… I own the events and challenges I face and do my best to strategize how to move through them.
“One easy example is this past year. My business model of being an in-person speaker got turned off like a light switch. I then just kept moving and building relationships. I believe the choice we have is to either keep up with the tempo of change in the world or not.
“Another example is happening right now. This past year I began walking a great deal and listening to audible books, taking notes and creating content. It was very enjoyable. I injured my hip a few weeks ago and it has totally disrupted my routine. I am working as quickly as possible to create new routines and healthy habits to continue to live what I believe is my purpose. It sucks that things change, but that is inevitable :)”
– Liam, Former FBI, Author
Personal suffering as a proxy
When talking about mental health, Max Nussenbaum, Program Director @OnDeck Writer Fellowship, always comes to mind. When I pinged him for answers, he gave me the opportunity to quote some of his amazingly candid essays.
“I wrote two pieces on this, one about being a startup founder and the other about being a writer.”
Both of the above pieces I highly recommend. But here are a few of Max’s thoughts that resonated with me the most. Even then, this snapshot will not do the nuance he describes justice:
“Since I didn’t know how to prove to myself that I belonged where I was, I turned to the only method I could come up with: treating my personal suffering as a proxy. The rest of my life becoming less and less put together must have meant that I was throwing more and more of myself into the company, and therefore that no one—least of all me—could question my commitment or whether I was cut out for this. And so I partied too much and foreclosed any real connection with the people I was dating and just generally reveled in everything around me being a bit of a mess.”
“A lot of this was fun, but I was stressed and anxious all the time; there was both a euphoria and a terror in feeling like my life was moving so fast that the whole thing threatened to go off the rails at any moment. I would look around and think to myself, this must be what really living is all about. And whenever I felt like an imposter as a founder, I’d use the corresponding messiness of my personal life as proof that I was giving the company my all.
“Of course, none of this made any logical sense, and none of it made us more successful. A stable relationship almost certainly would have been a support system that helped me be a better founder; at the very least, it’s hard to do good work when you were out till 4 a.m. doing drugs with strangers the night before. But that’s the thing: I wasn’t optimizing for actually making my company successful. I was optimizing for assuaging my own insecurities.”
Doing your best
“In short, I have a simple approach for when self-doubt could come in – in that, as long as you believe you are doing the best you can, getting support from others to help get through the situation, and striving to continually improve, then what is meant to be, will be. If it doesn’t happen, then it wasn’t meant to happen and something that’s better suited for you will come along in due time.
“While it might be short term disappointment, either turn it into a driving force to do better and achieve what you were originally trying to do, but knowing limits, putting in a plan for constant improvement and being satisfied with the achievements as long as you can internally reflect and know you did your best.”
– Mateo, Head of International at a post-Series B startup
Your best days are ahead
“I grew up in a poor, uneducated family, and have for a long time felt like I didn’t quite fit in. To them, my curiosity and intellectual pursuits are deemed futile and a pipe dream. It has also been met with ridicule and mockery. As much as I pretend that it doesn’t affect me, ultimately the people in your family have so much influence on our sense of self worth. It wasn’t until moving out here in 2013, that I felt like I found my family and my tribe. That narrative still bounces around in my head from time to time, but I have worked really hard through therapy and conversations with mentors to eradicate a good majority of it.
“I guess imposter syndrome, is the widely used term for this condition. For folks like us, that may be more deeply rooted and takes more effort to overcome. Am I smart enough to do this? Do I know enough? Am I experienced enough? I’m not educated like my colleagues. I didn’t go to Stanford, Cal, or MIT. What am I doing here?
“There’s only so much one can tell oneself to overcome these deeply rooted self doubts, ‘you got this’ ‘you belong here’.
“I have found that working through it is a journey that involves creating new habits and forming new narratives. Turning the negative self talk into, ‘this is part of the process’ ‘your beginner’s mind is an asset’ ‘I’m not my highly educated colleagues, but my game and perspective is unique’.
“Growing up in South Carolina in my family, so many of the things the could have been cultivated weren’t, and that’s fine. I feel like my best days are ahead of me, and I’ll take that.”
– Harry, Senior Design Leader at a Fortune 100 company
The war between results and doubt
“Whenever I go a month or more without a sale, the doubt starts to creep in. The only thing that pushes the doubt away is a successful sale. I am better at dealing with it now because I have been through so many cycles and ups and downs, but I have never truly figured out how to eliminate the doubt (or better channel/repurpose that negative energy) that creeps in whenever I have a little capacity to do more work.”
– Lucas, Managing Director at an Executive Search Firm
Would she say the same for a man?
As if the world gave me the sign to take this leap of faith to write this blogpost, the first person I reached out to was Stephanie. I happened to catch her right at the moment she had been rejected after an interview for a senior position at a firm.
“I was honest about my career and life. Next time I could speak differently but I know with my resume and the time off I took that I would get the questions I received.
“I just hated the comment she made. She was very complimentary but then used this word that made me wonder, ‘Hmm would she say this about a man with my same career path?’
“The interviewer commented to my friend that I was smart but ‘too whimsical’ for the role they are hiring for. It made me question my whole career path for a second. By the way, I had never been called ‘whimsical’ before… that’s a word used for fairies.
“I try not to overstress myself and that’s why my personality is more chillax, but I take myself very seriously at work.
“Questions I ask myself and messages I give myself when I have doubt:
‘Am I doing the right thing with my life?’
‘What can I do to help others understand why I am taking this direction?’
‘How can I be my number one fan?’
‘Be compassionate with yourself.’
‘Focus on your mental health during this time of self doubt.’
(when someone rejects me)”
– Stephanie, Female co-founder of a hedge fund and advisor to multiple companies
Dreaming and falling
“From my own experience the question of self-doubt sneaks in way too often in almost any entrepreneurial quest. It can happen that you have self-doubt 101 times a day about some totally banal things such as ‘can I name myself a CEO and put it on my LinkedIn profile if I just founded a business’.
“For me personally, those ‘light’ self-doubt questions are categorized more as decisions. Same as with food, just make up your mind on what you want to have for lunch and stick to your decision whether it tastes or it doesn’t taste good. And of course, if it did not taste well enough, make sure that you have learned the lesson for the next time.
“The real heavy self-doubt comes to surface when:
A. You are selling a dream, a vision or an idea, and B. When things are falling apart.
>> A.
“In situation (a), it can often happen when you don’t have enough pieces of tangible evidence, data points, intelligence, etc. to prove your point of view to yourself and others. People will say – your idea sucks, this is impossible, you don’t have the skillset, your team is not good enough, the market does not exit, etc.
“To ‘survive’ these situations and be able to thrive no matter the negative comments and feedback (which often can come from some of the most influential and successful investors and entrepreneurs), I always make sure that before I go out there selling my vision, I truly believe in my idea/dream and that I have done enough homework to personally assure that there is a decent chance for it to come to life. I bulletproof it for myself first before I take that and test it with the world.
“Moving forward with selling the dream, during the conversations I tend to come back to the narratives of others who did something great in the past and proved others wrong.
“As Nelson Mandela would say, ‘It always seems impossible until it’s done.’
“I read so many inspirational stories of successful innovators, scientists, philosophers, artists, sport athletes, and entrepreneurs. And I don’t hesitate to bring those examples up in a conversation to show that someone has done it before even though at the beginning no one recognized their potential or the potential of their idea.
>> B.
“For situation (b) when your project is failing, sometimes it is totally out of your hands (and that is sort of an easier scenario,) but sometimes you do tend to question yourself if you could have done something differently. You start developing self-doubt in your managerial and entrepreneurial competence. Especially when you read so many headlines about the success of other entrepreneurs that raised 100s of millions or exited their companies at some mind-boggling valuations.
“In those moments, I do two things:
I rationalize by going back in the past and rewinding all the small achievements we made along the way. While doing that, I express deep gratitude for every single small step I made. As an example, we never raised from a Tier 1 VC but we met a lot of them and with some, we had multiple rounds of conversations. I am deeply grateful for even hearing back from them, for every moment they took to review my deck and learn more about our project. Success is the path and the process itself, not the final outcome. And that is what I remind myself of, in case the self-doubt comes to surface.
I ask myself if I did put in my perfect effort because that is all I could have done. As Sam Altman said, one needs a great idea, a great product, a great team, and great execution. Even if you have all four of these you may still fail. The outcome is something like idea x product x execution x team x luck, where luck is a random number between zero and ten thousand. Knowing that at the end of the day we are only in control of our thoughts, intentions, and reactions I end up asking myself – am I a satisfied with my input and work and did I do my best and put in the perfect effort? And the answer to that question brings me to a rationale that is beyond self-doubt and is actually the basic building block of self-confidence. This really helps to turn doubt into a strength!”
I know that not every story will resonate. Some may never resonate. Some will grow on you over time. Others will find meaning into your life when you least expect them to. My purpose for starting this blogpost is to freeze these stories and life lessons in amber for when you find yourself needing them the most. Life’s not easy. Neither is it meant to be. But hopefully, you’ll find comfort knowing you are not alone.
At the end of the day, all advice is autobiographical. Or as Kevin Kelly, co-founder of WIRED magazine, once wrote, “Advice like these are not laws. They are like hats. If one doesn’t fit, try another.” What you’ve read above are the advice, stories, autobiographies. Anecdotes that hopefully shed more light into the elements of humanity many of us, including myself, have been scared to talk about.
A good buddy of mine made me watch a movie recently. It couldn’t have been more timely. He told me nothing more than this one line from that movie:
“We are all the unreliable narrators of each other’s stories.”
So I watched it. I won’t tell you the name of the movie or what it’s about, but if you use the above quote in your search query, you’ll find it. And if you’re like me, and so many others, who struggle with identity and your place in the world – either now or in the past, it’ll change the way you see the world and the people around you.
Thank you Taylor, Max, Janko and everyone else who made this piece possible!
#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
Earlier this month, I saw quite the thought-provoking tweet from Ashley Brasier.
“I took a cue from General Patton, who thought that the greatest danger was not that the enemy would learn his plans, but that his own troops would not.”
-Trader Joe (aka Joe Coulombe) on the need to sell to everybody – not just to your customers, but also to your employees
Whether it’s a function of confirmation and availability bias or lesser-known leadership secret, I saw similar themes pop up everywhere from Phil Libin of Evernote and General Catalyst fame to Kelly Watkins at Abstract to Colleen McCreary at Credit Karma. And because of that, I thought it was a topic worth double-clicking on.
There’s the age-old saying: Leaders lead. Managers manage. And a CEO is frankly a marriage of both. While there are the canonical examples of Musk and Jobs, a CEO both leads with her/his vision but also manages expectations.
“I think the most important job of a CEO is to isolate the rest of the company from fluctuations of the hype cycle because the hype cycle will destroy a company. It’ll shake it apart. In tech the hype cycles tend to be pretty intense. At mmhmm we are very much in the Venn diagram of two hype cycles. There’s a general hype cycle around video, which is going to be way up and down over the next few years. […]
“There is also a hype cycle around early and mid stage startup investment. It’s super volatile, now more than ever, because of potential changes in the tax laws, interest rates, and inflation. So you’ve got these two very volatile areas, video and startup investment, and we are sitting right in the bull’s eye of that. This means that my most important job is to isolate the team so that we don’t float based on the ups and downs of the current. Make sure we have enough mass and momentum to go through it, meaning we don’t change what we do based on the hype cycle.
“And that takes capital, which is why we have to raise some capital to do this. It also takes understanding of where you’re trying to go and knowing where you’re going is not based on the hype cycle. You have to have a long term conviction about that. You may be wrong. The conviction could turn out to be wrong, but you’re not going to know that based on day to day fluctuations of excitement or month to month. So have a clear direction of where you are going and then make sure the ship has enough momentum so it doesn’t matter what the waves are doing, you’re still going relatively straight.”
Kelly Watkins, CEO of Abstract, also said in an interview: “People might think the job of the CEO is to make a lot of decisions, but I see my job as setting the tone for the company. People look to leaders to gauge their own reactions in a situation. So if I’m running around like a headless chicken or my tone is on a really high frequency, people graft off of that.”
Similarly, I wrote an essay a year and a half ago. On Sun Tzu and how a leader’s job is setting the tone for her/his company. In short, your team follows you and is a direct function of:
How much they trust you, and
How well they understand a leader’s commands (the why, the how, and the what)
As a caveat, one might disagree with the what, and maybe the how, but a strong team believes in the same why.
In another interview, Colleen McCreary of Credit Karma once said: “Founders, in particular, are always looking to move onto the next thing, but people don’t come along the journey that quickly. So you have to slow down to be consistent, stay on message and tell employees how they’re going to define success. Because if you don’t focus on what really matters, people will hang their hat on an IPO or the stock price as being the determinant of success, and it’s just hard to unwind.”
And why does all this matter?
As Ben Horowitz wrote in his book What You Do Is Who You Are, “Culture is a strategic investment in the company doing things the right way when you are not looking.”
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
I was reading Sammy Abdullah of Blossom Street Ventures‘ Medium post not too long ago about the value of auto-price increases in a context I’ve never really thought about. Quoting one of his portfolio companies’ founders:
“We started including auto-price increases in our renewals at the start of this year and it’s been surprisingly effective. Our starting point is 10% and we get it more often than not; some customers negotiate us down to the 3–5% range.
“The automatic price increases are a beautiful thing because they give us leverage:
we can trade an automatic price increase for an earlier renewal, longer contract period, or upselling to more features; and
when we do waive price increases, the customer walks away satisfied. They feel like they’re winning.”
It’s a great way to win on net retention. But as I’ve written about before, the net retention equation is comprised of the upgrades, downgrades, and churn variables.
Or convert more users into customers, if you’re running a freemium model
Reduce the number of customers downgrading to lower tiers
Reduce churn – customers leaving your platform
Some permutation of the above variables
Leveling up upgrades
Shivani Berry, founder of Ascend’s Leadership Program, once wrote: “Buy-in is the result of showing your team why your idea achieves their goals.” In a similar sense, buy-in is the result of showing your customers why your product achieves their goals. The best thing is that their goals will change over time. As so, your product must contain increasingly more value to your customers as they level up in their lifecycle. As they grow, you have product offerings that grow with their needs.
Take, for example, one of my favorite startups these days, Pulley, a cap table management tool for startups. Don’t worry, this isn’t a sponsored blogpost. Although it’d be nice if it was. I have no chips in the bag; I just like them. They have three tiers of pricing. The lowest for startups with 25 stakeholders. The middle for startups with 40. And the highest is for larger businesses.
Why 25? The average seed-stage startup has about 25 stakeholders. Subsequently, top of mind for them is what SAFEs and convertible notes look like on their cap table and how to structure early equity pools.
As a startup levels up to 40 stakeholders, they’re probably jumping into their first priced round. As such, they’ll need a 409A valuation to appraise their fair market value, as well as finally putting together their first official board.
Every time founders raise another round of funding, the more complicated their cap table becomes. The more they need Pulley’s software. And it so happens, the less price sensitive they become. For Pulley, that means they can charge more as their customers have greater purchasing power.
You also always want an enterprise pricing tier, where pricing is custom. Don’t be afraid to charge more. As I mentioned in a previous essay, when Intercom was only charging IBM $49, an IBM exec once told the Intercom team, “You know, I go on a coffee run for the team that costs a lot more than your product. That’s why we’re wary of investing too much more in you. We just don’t see how you’re going to survive.” If it helps as a reference point, the median ACV (annual contract value) for public SaaS companies is $27,000.
Do note that the more you charge, the longer the sales cycle will be. For ACVs over $20K, expect 4-6 months of a sales cycle. For contracts over $100K, expect 6-9 months. Of course, the contrapositive would be that the lower the price point, the easier and faster it takes to make a decision.
Reducing downgrades and churn
I’ve been in love with Clayton Christensen’s “jobs-to-be-done” (JTBD) framework ever since I learned of it a few years ago. At the end of the day, you’re delivering value. Value in the form of doing a job. As Christensen says, “when we buy a product, we essentially ‘hire’ it to help us do a job. If it does the job well, the next time we’re confronted with the same job, we tend to hire that product again. And if it does a crummy job, we ‘fire’ it and look for an alternative.”
The better it can do the job your customer needs to get done, the more you can optimize for the variables in the net retention equation. Sunita Mohanty, Product Lead at Facebook, shared an amazing JTBD framework they use back at Facebook and Instagram:
When I… (context) But… (barrier) Help me… (goal) So I… (outcome)
Here’s another way to look at it:
What features should we have that would make our product great?
What features should this product have that would make it a no-brainer purchase for our customers?
The “no-brainer” part especially matters. And to be a “no-brainer”, you have to deliver the best-in-class. Your features have to solve a fundamental job that your customer is trying to solve. The difference between a “great product” and a “no-brainer” is the difference between a 5 out of 5-star rating and a 6-star out of a 5-star rating. Effectively, the outcome in Facebook’s JTBD framework exceeds the goal, which makes the barrier irrelevant. As David Rubin, CMO of The New York Times and former Head of Global Brand at Pinterest once said: “Your service shouldn’t lead with ‘saving money’. You must create an offering that is so compelling, it stands by itself in the consumer’s mind.”
In closing
At the end of the day, in the words of Alex Rampell, building a startup is “a race where the startup is trying to get distribution before the incumbent gets innovation.”
You’re in a race against time. You’re trying to reach critical mass and growth before your incumbents realize your space is a money-making machine. And growth comes in two parts: acquisition and retention. While many founders seemed to have over-indexed on acquisition over the last couple of years, the pandemic has reawakened many that retention is often times much more difficult to attain than acquisition. While it may not be true for every type of business, hopefully, the above is another tool in your toolkit.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
