“Venture Should Play More Like Moneyball” | Carson Monson | Superclusters | S6E9

carson monson

“The limiting downside is actually something a lot of emerging managers donโ€™t think about. If you can turn all of your portfolio companies that donโ€™t hit that exit velocity, if you can find a soft landing for those companies versus thatโ€™s a writeoff and theyโ€™re dead and done, thatโ€™s extra effort, but thatโ€™s an extra turn on your fundโ€™s performance.” โ€” Carson Monson

Carson Monson is a seasoned allocator with nearly a decade of experience backing emerging and spinout GPs across large institutions, government entities, and family offices. After stints at Greenspring, SITFO, and building a fund of funds strategy for a large European single family office, he now runs the fund of funds at CrossRange, which focuses on supporting top-tier emerging and spinout GPs.

Carson has backed everything from micro funds to high-profile managers spinning out of tier-one firms. He is deeply committed to being a thought partner and strategic resource to the GPs he supports, helping them navigate the complexities of fund building and long-term success in the VC industry.

You can find Carson on his socials here:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carson-k-monson/
X / Twitter: https://x.com/Monsson_

Listen to the episode onย Apple Podcastsย andย Spotify. You can alsoย watch the episode on YouTube here.

OUTLINE:

[00:00] Intro
[02:08] Wildlife and wholesome trouble
[06:03] The journey to being an LP
[10:54] How did Carson join Greenspring?
[13:55] Lessons across Greenspring
[15:46] How many deals did Greenspring do per year?
[18:46] An example of a qualitative metric worth measuring
[20:16] How many off-thesis bets is a VC allowed to make?
[21:25] When do GPs move from thematic bets to opportunistic bets?
[25:45] How much AUM should any one GP have?
[29:46] Why does Carson liked concentrated portfolios?
[30:32] The case for concentrated portfolios
[36:40] Relationships with GPs should stay at the LP partner level
[39:49] Fund strategy at Fund (n) vs Fund (n + 1)
[45:19] What the hell is ‘critical node theory?’
[49:54] Examples of great references
[52:58] The halo effect of mega funds
[58:48] How does Carson get to inbox zero
[1:02:09] Why is CrossRange different?
[1:08:17] The last time Carson had a pinch-me moment
[1:10:17] Carson’s ricotta gnocchi
[1:12:28] Post-credit scene: Ramen, gluten, Tokyo, and Tonkatsu Suzuki Pt 2

SELECT LINKS FROM THIS EPISODE:

SELECT QUOTES FROM THIS EPISODE:

On if 20% of the fund is focused on opportunistic betsโ€ฆ โ€œWealthy is a nice word. I would say [20% is] egregious. […] 10%, itโ€™s not like itโ€™s the right number, but itโ€™s the number most LPs wonโ€™t contest.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œIn the past, there have been GPs who are truly excellent at one thing or a couple of things, whether thatโ€™s a thesis, strategy, or an approach. And that approach makes a ton of sense at the fund size that theyโ€™re operating at or maybe a little bit larger. In the 20-teens especially, people were able to raise more and more, and strategy drift became a huge issue. That is something managers have to face the music on now. Itโ€™s almost like the idea of being a professional baseball player and grinding and working your way up and becoming excellent and an all-star baseball player. Then being, โ€˜Well, the motion is similar in cricket, so Iโ€™ll just go play cricket now.โ€™ Ya some of the motions are similar, but itโ€™s a fundamentally different sport. Strategy drift, fund size drift; it can be a really easy trap to fall into. The motions are similar, but you lose that competitive edge when you start to play a different sport.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œIf youโ€™re more concentrated, there is an ability to impact outcomes more meaningfully. I like GPs that play a critical role in the ecosystem in which they operate in. If you play a critical roleโ€”whether thatโ€™s in go-to-market motions, whether thatโ€™s in commercialization, whether thatโ€™s in branding and storytellingโ€”there are so many ways you can play that role. Those types of GPs tend to have an ability to move the needle for their founders moreโ€”both on the upside and limiting the downside.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œThe limiting downside is actually something a lot of emerging managers donโ€™t think about. If you can turn all of your portfolio companies that donโ€™t hit that exit velocity, if you can find a soft landing for those companies versus thatโ€™s a writeoff and theyโ€™re dead and done, thatโ€™s extra effort, but thatโ€™s an extra turn on your fundโ€™s performance. There is a skillset in identifying that thereโ€™s still good in a company, even if itโ€™s not going to have this massive outcome.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œVenture should play more like Moneyball. If you can get your companies on base and limit strikeouts, that is actually so impactful at a fund level. More emerging managers should try to think like CIOs, and less like individual investors, like being a portfolio manager and managing outcomes. Obviously, venture is a game of minority positions. You do not have sole control. Playing that role for your founders, it impacts performance. It impacts reputation and, in fact, your ability to win in the future.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œYou cannot say, โ€˜Iโ€™m going to be SV Angel today, so I can be USV tomorrow.โ€™โ€ โ€” Carson Monson

โ€œA multi-billion dollar mega fund has to have a portfolio of companies whose aggregate equity value outstrips the GDP of most small nations on this planet.โ€ โ€” Carson Monson


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The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.