October, 2024 - Cup of Zhou

October 31, 2024October 31, 2024

Hypoxic Training

Back when I was still swimming competitively, one of the drills our swim coach always had us do was a set of hypoxic drills. The two that left the most indelible marks were:

10 sets of 100 yards, broken down by 25 yards. Lap 1, breathe every 5 strokes. Lap 2, every 3 strokes. Lap 3, every 7 strokes. And Lap 4, every 9 strokes.
20 sets of 55 yards. You start with a flip turn into the wall. First 25 yards (Lap 1), no breaths allowed. Second 25 (Lap 2), you’re allowed to only take one breath.

Naturally, those drills usually left me the most exhausted. Not only did I find myself catching my breath, we also had to swim those on specific intervals, which left less than five seconds of rest at best, while swimming at 80% our max speed.

All that to say, it was a set of exercises that trained us to hold our breath. We had less oxygenated blood. Naturally, it was harder to exert our max strength and endurance. But it tested our ability to weather exhaustion.

Just like today.

Our venture ecosystem needs oxygen. The whole industry is holding their breath. For IPOs. like Stripe’s. Which may be unlikely to happen in the near future given Sequoia’s recent share acquisition. Software acquisitions have also hit an all-time low, leaving LPs starved for liquidity from the major private market exit paths.

And of the few “acquisitions” that are happening, they’re done to circumnavigate anti-trust laws. As Tomasz points out, “they hire the core team [in other words the founding team], license the technology, but the majority company continues to operate as a separate entity.” In addition, a number of companies also need to get re-priced in the market, having raised in 2020 and 2021 on over three-year runways. Which to their credit, was the common advice given by VCs during that era.

Election season does not make this Mexican standoff any less strenuous. How will it impact the global economy? And who’s the last to hold the bag with all these hot AI deals? We all know AI has low margins and requires and immense amount of compute to deliver the results that we expect, but how much longer will this need to go on?

Who knows?

At least until we get to breathe again. The consensus seems to be Q1 2025. But until we have oxygen again, this is the hypoxic training that our world will have to endure for the foreseeable future.

In the words of my coach, “focus on distance per stroke.” In other words, executional discipline. Do more with less.

Photo by NEOM on Unsplash

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The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

October 24, 2024October 24, 2024

#unfiltered #92 AGMs, VC Funds, and the Personality Hypothesis

In the last few months, I’ve been to a number of AGMs. For the uninitiated, annual general meetings. These annual summits VCs host once a year to their investors. Their LPs. Some of such events I go to because I’m an LP in those respective funds. The vast majority of which I am not. But I go because I’m a friend of the team, or the GPs want me to give them feedback on the event, or that I advised them on how to put together the event itself. The invite, in and of itself, especially to those I am not an LP in, is an honor and a privilege. Something I don’t take lightly.

The best ones bring in quality attendees, not just speakers. And that these A-players bring their A-game. They are willing to share their insights and experience with candor, and leave little to the imagination. They are battlegrounds of ideas and creative conflict. To take a line from Matt Ridley, a line I first heard also at a an AGM last week, “Innovation is when ideas have sex.” Quality events are simply “brothels of ideas,” to borrow a line from a speaker at that AGM, leading not only to a higher quality of conversation, but also a higher quality of eavesdropping.

In the words of someone I met at one last week, “I don’t have a membership to a country club, but this is the closest thing I have to it.”

In each, the general partners for each firm would typically share the progress of the fund. The good. The bad. The numbers. The trends. As well as the future of the fund. Then after all that, they would have 2-3 of their portfolio companies present on stage, with insight as to what innovation looks like from ground zero. My personal favorites are where the founders don’t pitch that they’re fundraising. It is purely, in its truest sense, an exchange of ideas. Occasionally, there would be an additional speaker — an influential individual in the space to highlight the GP(s)’ networks. These have ranged from published authors to established GPs to celebrities to bloggers and podcasters to Nobel Prize winners.

LPs often go to so many of these. Many more than I have to date. That at some point, every annual meeting starts looking like the next. If you knew nothing else, or if you’re ever curious of my favorite rule of thumb on whether an AGM is truly different and worth one’s time is one where less than 10% of the attendees are on their devices. And even if they are, they aren’t on it for long.

That said, one thing I couldn’t help but notice was that many of the founders who spoke on stage often reflected the personality of the GPs. A mirror of sorts. Not all the time, but enough for me to consistently notice. Which makes sense since like-minded people gravitate towards each other.

People with similar energy levels. People with similar levels of charisma. Those with similar levels of curiosity. Similar sets of hobbies.

I have no thesis here. Merely a hypothesis from a very anecdotal set of observations. How crucial is a GP’s personality in selecting and attracting founders? If there was a loose personality archetype of a great founder, does that mean LPs should pick GPs with that same personality archetype since they’re more likely to attract entrepreneurs with similar personalities?

Hell, as they sit two degrees of freedom away from actual innovation, do most LPs actually know what makes a great founder?

Photo by Pablo Heimplatz on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

October 18, 2024October 17, 2024

DGQ 24: Guessing a number between 1 and 100

Eight years back, at least at the time of publishing this blogpost, Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft, shared one of his favorite interview questions.

“I’m thinking of a number between 1 and 100. You can guess. After each guess, I’ll tell you whether high or low. You get it the first guess, I give you five bucks. [Second guess], four bucks. Three. Two. One. Zero. You pay me a buck. You pay me two; you pay me three… And the question is, do you want to play or not? What’s your answer?”

While he didn’t go too much in depth on all the answers he’s gotten to it over the years, I imagine different people would have given different proposals on how the game might be played. Of course, the classic engineer is likely to approach it was as an expected value problem.

Most people will lose money. There are far more numbers to guess on which one loses than wins. The question really comes down to… do you know the odds of the game you play?

I find it interesting as an investor to hypothetically ask to founders and/or GPs. That said, I never did. But equally so, I usually spend the first conversation with an entrepreneur (whether the product be software or a fund model) trying to understand a person’s motivations. And, if they understand the rules of the game.

Those who don’t understand the rules will often jump head first in, and take care of the consequences later. Asking for forgiveness than for permission. An attitude that is more excusable in a startup founder than a fund manager.

Those who do understand will take a more measured approach. It’s interesting how little some people understand the game they’re playing. Be it in a two-year financial projection that encapsulates all their assumptions, or a portfolio construction model to understand the enterprise value to return the fund 3X.

For the former, it’s less so of how accurate a financial projection slide is. Hell, your guess is as good as mine. But I always ask founders to unpack it to understand how they’re thinking about the future as a function of their reality today.

For the latter, it’s to understand the true power of the power law, no pun intended. For instance, if you have a $10M fund, writing 20 checks of $500K for 5% ownership. Obviously, I’m assuming a bunch of things for the sake of keeping the math simple. No fees, no recycling, no reserves, and so on. You need to return $50M to 5X your fund. Accounting for 80% dilution, you’ll own 1% on exit. So you need $5B in enterprise value. Given the power law, one of out of the 20 companies should get to at least $3-4B in exit value.

Then again, those who understand the game too well will never take the risk necessary for serendipity to stick.

There’s an interesting blogpost an LP shared with me for my blogpost on evergreen content that VCs and LPs consume. A piece written by the legendary Graham Duncan. “The Playing Field.” A piece I highly recommend reading, even if to shape your own thinking about how the game you play evolves over time. In it, a line worth underscoring.

“[I]t’s the way you learn to play the cards you’ve been dealt, rather than the hand itself, that determines the worth of your participation in the game.”

Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash

The DGQ series is a series dedicated to my process of question discovery and execution. When curiosity is the why, DGQ is the how. It’s an inside scoop of what goes on in my noggin’. My hope is that it offers some illumination to you, my readers, so you can tackle the world and build relationships with my best tools at your disposal. It also happens to stand for damn good questions, or dumb and garbled questions. I’ll let you decide which it falls under.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

October 10, 2024October 3, 2024

DGQ 23: What’s the most interesting question you’ve been asked so far?

I use this question quite often as a discovery tool. My job as an early-stage investor is to find crazy, interesting people building interesting things. By the time things look less crazy (at least at face value, without digging), I’m likely too late.

To founders who are fundraising, I often ask this question with respect to VCs. Most VCs default to the usual.

Tell me about your company.

How much revenue do you have? Growth rate?

Tell me about your 2-year plan. Your financial projections.

Tell me about your competitors.

How much are you raising?

Who else is investing?

And I’ve probably missed a plethora of usual suspects when it comes to questions VCs ask founders. But I love people who ask different sets of questions. People who think different, see different, and as such ask different. How are they slicing the cake differently? What might these people be seeing that most others are not? And then, I go back and reflect… is there alpha in that way of thinking.

But first, it’s about the questions. Some examples of such… here, here, here, and here, and also here and here.

So when I ask, “What’s the most interesting question you’ve been asked so far?” to founders, they can help me uncover new VCs I may not have noticed before. Probably investing in ways the industry has not seen before. And probably also investing in companies uncorrelated with most others. At least in the early stages. When I ask it to GPs, I can find LPs whose portfolios may look different from others. Or at the very least, will have arrived at their conclusion differently than their peers.

Photo by Nick Karvounis on Unsplash

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October 7, 2024October 7, 2024

When VC Funds Become Firms, Part 3 | Lisa Cawley, Ben Choi, Jaclyn Freeman Hester | Superclusters

“When you bring people in as partners, being generous around compensating them from funds they did not build can help create alignment because they’re not sitting there getting rich off of something that started five years ago and exits in ten years. So they’re kind of on an island because everybody else is in a different economic position and that can be very isolating.” – Jaclyn Freeman Hester

We’re doing a three-part series with some of our fan favorites over the last three seasons on the LP perspective of succession-planning and VC firm-building.

Lisa Cawley is the Managing Director of Screendoor, a highly respected LP of GPs, investing in firm-builders by firm-builders, with a unique model for partnering with allocators to access the emerging manager ecosystem.

Ben Choi manages over $3B investments with many of the world’s premier venture capital firms as well as directly in early stage startups. He brings to Next Legacy a distinguished track record spanning over two decades founding and investing in early-stage technology businesses.

Jaclyn Freeman Hester is a Partner at Foundry. Jaclyn helped launch Foundry’s partner fund strategy, building the portfolio to nearly 50 managers. Bringing her unique GP + LP perspective, Jaclyn has become a go-to sounding board for emerging VCs.

You can find Lisa on her socials here:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/31mml/
Screendoor: https://www.screendoor.co/contact

You can find Ben on his socials here:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/benjichoi
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bchoi/

You can find Jaclyn on her socials here:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jfreester
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaclyn-freeman-hester-70621126/

And huge thanks to this episode’s sponsor, Alchemist Accelerator: https://alchemistaccelerator.com/superclusters

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here.

You can also find Part 1 and Part 2 of this 3-part mini series.

Brought to you by Alchemist Accelerator.

OUTLINE:

[00:00] Intro
[01:55] Lisa on documenting the how and why behind decisions
[05:52] Ben on leadership transitions at VC firms
[08:08] GP commits by young GPs at established firms
[11:56] What makes Kauffman Fellows special
[14:33] Should Kauffman sponsor Superclusters?
[15:34] A rising tide raises all ships
[16:41] Partnerships that choose to stay together
[18:21] Jaclyn on leadership transitions at VC firms
[25:48] The economics of succession planning
[31:28] Lisa on succession planning vs wind-down planning
[33:10] Jaclyn on pros & cons of succession planning & committee decisions
[41:50] Thank you to Alchemist Accelerator for sponsoring!
[42:51] If you liked this 3-part series, do let us know with a like or a comment below!

SELECT LINKS FROM THIS EPISODE:

SELECT QUOTES FROM THIS EPISODE:

“If it’s not documented, it’s not done.” – Lisa Cawley

“If somebody is so good that they can raise their own fund, that’s exactly who you want in your partnership. You want your partnership of equals that decide to get together, not just are so grateful to have a chance to be here, but they’re not that great.” – Ben Choi

“When you think about succession planning, you actually have to take a step back and think: Is that even going to be my approach? Do I need to think about succession planning or am I really talking about wind-down planning? And when I stop raising a subsequent fund.” – Lisa Cawley

Follow David Zhou for more Superclusters content:
For podcast show notes: https://cupofzhou.com/superclusters
Follow David Zhou’s blog: https://cupofzhou.com
Follow Superclusters on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SuperclustersLP
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October 4, 2024October 3, 2024

Starting from Yes versus No

Last week, I was chatting with an LP about decision-making processes at institutional LPs, whether a large family office or a pension or an endowment. And I asked her:

“When you come across a new investment opportunity, do you often find yourself starting from a yes and working to find ways to disprove yourself to get to a no? Or do you start from a no, then spend the next few years working your way to get to a yes?”

(To be honest, I could have phrased the question. But alas, you get the gist.)

She gave a light chuckle. Thought for a moment. And said, “In the first conversation I have with a GP, I either get to a quick no or a tentative yes. And in the next few months, I try to find signs of why this investment could be a no. But if I don’t find any strong disproving evidence in that exploration, that’s when we choose to invest.”

Of course, she’s not alone. I haven’t actively gone out to measure the distribution. But out of 20 or so LPs I’ve asked, I’d say anecdotally, it’s about half who start from a yes, and half who start from a no.

There’s no hard and fast rule here. But what I seemed to notice is that it depends heavily on how easily people get to conviction.

Some people are more prone to saying yes. They get easily excited about new opportunities. The feeling of love at first sight. As such, their investment process accounts for that by delaying gratification and impulse purchases. The discipline of their investment process allows to take time to find clues that may either prove or disprove their intuition.

Among thousands, if not tens of thousands of opportunities, for others, it’s easier to say no. Most LPs don’t have a time horizon they have to commit capital before, barring fund of funds, and potentially some large institutions who act as fiduciaries for others’ capital. Unlike a GP whose mandate is potentially stage-specific, to most LPs, a Fund I commitment versus a Fund II or a Fund III is virtually the same to them. If a pre-see-only fund says no at the pre-seed, they lose that window of opportunity because they’re not allowed to invest net new checks at seed or Series A.

For LPs, this takes the possibility of a near-term transactional relationship out. Then as the relationship matures over time, one might stumble across something about a GP that gets them over the activation energy to dig deeper. And eventually, when enough evidence is collected, they’ll pull the trigger. More often than not, it’s not “enough evidence,” but rather enough time to realize the one or two brilliant things about a GP.

Photo by Diane Picchiottino on Unsplash

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