The Double-Edged Sword of Transparency, when Fundraising

In the venture world, startups have another alias. 10-year overnight successes.

For the majority of the world, we hear about startups through a Thursday morning TechCrunch article or by way of the Friday Happy Hour gossip stream. Well, okay, I’m not being time sensitive. We’re not going out for Friday night happy hours these days. But we might spy something in our social feeds after a startup hits 5 million users or they just raised $50 million from a top-tier venture firm.

And these TC or Forbes or NY Times articles paint these founding CEOs to almost be perfect individuals. Good news. They’re not. They’re human – just like you and me. Over the years, the more I’ve gotten to know these leaders, the more I realized how similar we are. How similar they were when they were where I am today. And even now, how they still feel the unease in the uncertainty in the world. My study last week on how people are living through the pandemic – what inspires them or what frustrates them – further illustrated our similarities. An animator who’s fought against doubt. An executive who lost his grandpa, broke up, and felt lost in the corporate politics. A founder who was forced to make the tough decision of leaving his team. And much more.

What’s that one analogy people use again – to show that everyone is living a life we know nothing about?

A duck, above the surface, perfectly calm and composed. Underwater, furiously paddling to stay afloat.

The double-edged sword

The good news is that most VCs know that founders aren’t perfect human beings. The bad news is the irony. On one hand, they know that founders aren’t perfect and should be willing to be vulnerable. On the other hand, too much vulnerability means that VC’s say, “I’m out.”

In many cases, investors may seem hypocritical. And arguably, there’s a handful of them who don’t even know what they’re looking for themselves. Yet, in most scenarios, the bargaining chip is on the investors’ end. Not with the founders. It’s frustrating. I know. I’ve talked to founders and will continue to talk with founders who feel that way. So, what is that fine line between the showing “perfection” and embracing imperfection?

Making the blade that works for you

When founders ask, this is what I tell them.

  1. Be upfront with your investors if you’re incompetent on an aspect or aspects of the business.
  2. Show them you’re competent… in finding a way to be competent.

Be upfront with your investors if you’re incompetent on an aspect or aspects of the business.

Address the elephant in the room. If you don’t bring it up, they’re bound to ask. Or worse yet, if they don’t ask, it’s going to be gnawing at them in their minds. And may end up being the main contributing factor to a “No”.

Show them you’re competent… in finding a way to be competent.

Early-stage VCs usually take between 2-4 months before they go from “Hi, my name is Buttercup” to “Take my money”. And here are the steps:

  • Coffee chat, aka “Hi, my name is Buttercup” (If you’re wondering why “Buttercup”, there’s a story behind there, but another day. Or if anyone’s dying to know, DM me or ask me in the comments below.)
  • 2nd meeting with same individual partner (maybe a +1)
  • Full partnership meeting
  • Diligence
  • Term sheet, aka “Take my money”

Lesson 1: Don’t skip steps (for the most part). What do I mean? When you’re having a coffee chat, your goal should not be to get a term sheet there. Your goal is should be to get to meeting 2. Think of it like a sales funnel.

Lesson 2: Learn and grow during the time you get to know an investor. Doers > thinkers. Hustle. Be scrappy, resourceful. At each step, the VC(s) are evaluating if you have the acumen, competency, and what Sequoia Capital calls it – a bias towards action.

Let’s analogize with the equation of a line: y = mx +b. We measure a founder’s competency not just at “b”, but a greater emphasis on “m”. And over the course of the time we get to know each other, if a founder can prove that to us. For me, after the first meeting, I usually give a couple pieces of advice. “Oh, you should really talk with Sarah. She’s really good at sales.” Or. “Have you thought about this UX improvement in the user journey?”

What I’m looking for, by the time we have our second meeting, is what have they done in the mean time. And for a great founder, there are 2 possibilities:

  1. They acted on the advice, and they come back with the results.
  2. They heavily considered the piece of advice. Did something else. Explained to me why they did something else. And also share the results of that decision.

In both scenarios, they have new results by the time we meet. They don’t have to be “right”, as if I’m even a person who can evaluate what’s right versus wrong. But they do have to learn fast. Hustlers make mistakes. And through the mistakes, they learn. Fast. It’s a preamble to what working with a VC looks like.

If you’re curious, Chris Moody at Foundry Group has a brilliant 3-part series of why you shouldn’t take money from a VC. In his first reason to not, if you want to build a lifestyle business. Otherwise, you’ve got to learn fast and be scrappy.

Here’s an example of scrappiness

When I was an operator, we were strapped for cash and looking for cash, so we didn’t have much of a budget for marketing and advertising. Admittedly, we also didn’t really know how to market the business. Minus a few theoretical classes, we knew nothing.

We used free student printing (for us up to 10,000 pages) to print out flyers we made by ourselves. Given that our audience included both SMBs and millennial/Gen Z’s looking for jobs, as much as we wanted to flyer to college students at the plaza or in front of local businesses, we knew it wouldn’t be smart. ’Cause everyone else was doing so.

So then it came down to the question: where do people have plenty of attention to spend but have not yet been saturated with information. For us, it was the bathroom. Specifically, in the stalls. When you’re locked inside the bathroom, doing your business, you either look at the door in front of you and/or at your cellphone. And the doors were often blank canvases. So we decided to stick our flyers on the backsides of these stall doors – both in the dorms and in public restrooms, which inevitably got our websites 10s of 1000s of views early on.

That said, the janitorial staff tore down our flyers every night at 11pm. So we had to be back on the streets and sticking in flyers in public and dorm bathrooms every morning at 5am. And it so happens, I once talked to one of the university’s janitorial staff members and he actually said thanks. Since he found his new job via a flyer he kept having to rip off.

As the economist Herbert A. Simon says, “a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” As an entrepreneur, you’re looking for the margins, where there is a poverty of information and a wealth of attention.

In closing

I can only speak from my perspective and what I seek in founders. But having talked and learned from a number of investors who have a track record for returning >5x MOIC (multiple on invested capital), I know I’m not alone.

It’s okay to be vulnerable of the potholes ahead – to not know how to do certain things. We’re human. It’s okay. But show that you have at least have a hypothesis on how to learn those things.

Photo by Ricardo Cruz on Unsplash


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#unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty

A few weeks ago, around the time I published Am I At My Best Right Now?, I started noticing more and more that my friends, colleagues, and people that I’ve met since were going through tough times. Two lost a family member. Some were laid off. Two were forced to leave this land I call home. Four broke up. Three burned out. Countless more told me they were stressed and/or depressed, and didn’t know how to escape this limbo. After I published that post, another handful of people also reached out and courageously shared the troubles they are going through now. How it’s been so hard to share with others. And yesterday, while editing this blog post, I found out that one of my high school friends had passed.

Inspiration and Frustration

During this time, I had a thought: Frustration is the absence of inspiration. There were many times in my own life when I was beating myself up because I couldn’t think of a solution. And a small percent of those times, I didn’t even bother to think of a solution since I was so engrossed in my frustration with myself.

In these unprecedented times and inspired by the conversations around me, I decided to show that we’re not alone. So, I asked people who I deeply respect and who could shed light as to what it means to be human. I asked just two questions, but they were only allowed to answer one of them:

  1. What is the one thing that inspires you so much that it makes everything else in life much easier to bear?
  2. What is stressing/frustrating you so much right now that it seems to invalidate everything else you’re doing?

In turn, they responded via email, text, or on a phone call. Of the 49 I asked, so far, 31 responded with their answers. 4 politely turned me down due to their busy schedules. Another one turned me down because she didn’t feel like she could offer value in her answer.

26 responded with what inspires them. 5 with what frustrates them. All of whom I know has been through adversity and back.

Admittedly, the hardest part about this study was how I was going to organize all these responses. Unlike the one about time allocation I did over a month ago, where I knew exactly how to organize the data before I even got all the responses, this one, I really didn’t know how to best illustrate the candor everyone shared. In fact, I would be doing a disservice to them, if reduced their honesty and courage to be vulnerable to mere numbers. So, in the end, below, I let everyone speak for themselves. Sometimes, simplicity is the best.

Thank you to everyone who contributed to making this blog post happen, including Brad Feld, Mars Aguirre, Shayan Mehdi, Thomas Owen, Chris Lyons, Mark Leon, Jamarr Lampart, Christen Nino De Guzman, Louis Q Tran, Sam Marelich, Dr. Kris Marsh, Quincy Huynh, DJ Welch, Jimmy Yue, and many, many more heroes who helped me and the world around us behind the curtains.

Continue reading “#unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty”

How to Identify Market Opportunity and Recognize Market Inefficiencies

round gold colored pocket watch

I was raised a swimmer. From 4 years old, my parents sent me to take swimming classes for 2 primary reasons:

  1. Learn how to not drown.
  2. If we (my parents) are ever going to drown, you’re going to save us.*

*Note: I’d like to point out the irony is that both of parents know how to swim themselves. Not at a competitive stage, but enough to survive from drowning.

Oddly enough, I learned how to swim by drowning. Over the years, like many other children around me, on top of swimming, I also played ball in its various sizes and ran. And I learned that swimming and running are of the 2 purest forms of athleticism and exercise out there. There’s very little margin for error, if any. A tenth of a second is the difference between Olympic gold and not even qualifying for the semifinals. Because of that, in swimming, we’re taught to be efficient. We learned to maximize for our distance per stroke (DPS). And I believe in running, it’s distance per stride.

Efficiency. The ability to do more with less.

The market of efficiency

These days, getting from point A to B isn’t as difficult as it used to be. Cars made travelling miles easier. Planes, for hundreds to thousands of miles. Bikes and scooters, for last mile transportation – distances too close to drive, but take twice as long to walk. Outside of transportation, career development, information and skill acquisition have all seen massive developments not only in the last hundred years, but especially in the last 10 years. Online platforms, like Coursera, Masterclass, Google, and Wikipedia, helped us all shave off months, years, even generations of legwork and information acquisition. They made so many things more accessible.

Accessibility

Accessibility is platformitizing and democratizing information. What Yellow Pages did for services. Reddit for knowledge acquisition. Amazon for shopping. Google for information. And Food Network and food media did for cooks. The average person today is more knowledgeable about the culinary process and its accessories than someone two decades back. Laughable now, but 8 years ago, it’s how I learned not to burn frozen pizza. I could go on and on.

But, in the next ten years, accessibility may not be enough. Though there are many populations in this world who still have yet to access the knowledge I can readily find on my laptop, accessibility provides people with the tools, but not the means to use those tools effectively.

Ease

Ease does. Lower the barriers to entry and bundle the entire knowledge acquisition, or otherwise, what I would call onboarding, in an intuitive manner. Like what WordPress did for websites. Instagram for photos. Opendoor for home-buying/selling. TurboTax for, well, tax.

It’s a messy web of information out there. As economist Herbert A. Simon puts it:

“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”

Here’s an easy way to tell which industries and processes lack ease. Find where people have created hacks to solve a problem.

  • Using multiple tools/software to solve a single problem;
  • Using a “temporary” solution to solve a repetitive problem. Like a basin to catch the rainwater that leaks through the roof;
  • A public forum, like Reddit or a Facebook group or multiple similar questions on Quora, where people share their “life hacks”.
  • A How-to YouTube video that has tens/hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of views.

And to know if you hit the nail on the head, you’ve got crazy pull. Product-market fit. PMF. When you don’t even have the luxury of time to worry if you have PMF ’cause your customer success inbox/sales inbox is filled to the brim. Or you’re getting so many new users that you’re figuring out how to upgrade your servers before your servers go blank. For more on PMF, I highly recommend checking out Lenny Rachitsky‘s recent post surveying 25 of the most successful companies on when they realized they had PMF.

In closing

Tools and platforms that make it easier for an individual to go the distance, to be more efficient, carry 2 traits: accessibility and ease. With each stroke, with each action one takes, they can go further. They can do more. With less. Technology, in the incoming years, will further do so.

And as a VC scout, I look for, what I call – distance per action. Or DPA, for short. So, if you’re working on something that will enable people to have higher and greater DPAs, I wanna talk.

Photo by David Bartus on Pexels.com


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Not the White Knight in Shining Armor

startup fundraising

I hear so many founders in their pitch decks say: As soon as they raise funding, [blank] will happen. [blank] could be: hiring that CTO or lead developer or an operations lead, getting to X0,000 users, or going “all in” on growth (often heard as Facebook and/or Google ads). That line by itself really doesn’t mean much. So I always follow up, with: “How do you plan to achieve [blank] milestone after you extend your runway/receive venture backing?”

Then this is when I start thinking, “Oh no!”, especially as soon as I hear, after I partner with X investor, they will help me do Y, or worse, they will do Y for me.

And I’m not alone. So, what signals does that response give investors?

  1. Alright, Investor A, I’m planning for you to do the legwork for growing my business.
  2. I don’t know what I’m doing, but please invest in my naivety.
  3. I haven’t thought about that problem/milestone at all, and I’ll worry about it when I get there. So, take a big risk in me.

Why I love athletes, chefs and veterans

There is no white knight in shining armor when you’re raising a round.

This is the reason I love athletes. And for that matter, veterans and chefs, too. Each of them chose a career where they are forced to deal with adversity. Personally and collectively. To a level, most of us might call inhuman. While I’m sure I’ve missed many other industries that also sponsor such arduous growth, and yes, I know I’m generalizing here, these 3 industries seem to have a higher batting average of producing individuals who can find the internal grit to overcome almost any obstacle.

In the words of Y Combinator‘s Michael Seibel in a recent talk he gave with Saastr Annual @ Home,

“They’ve trained themselves to be better at doing things that are hard.”

While he wasn’t necessarily talking about professional athletes, chefs, or veterans, the same is true. The people who are better than you at doing something don’t have it any easier than you do. Rather, they’ve developed a system, or mental model, that helps them conquer extremely difficult obstacles. And because it’s become muscle memory for them, it seems easier for them to accomplish these goals. At the same time, we should never discount their blood, sweat, and tears, or what some of my colleagues call scar tissue, just because we cannot see them. It’s why we in venture call startups “10-year overnight successes“.

To founders

Bringing it back full circle, a great founder (as opposed to a good or okay founder) never completely relies on an external source for the growth of their company. By the same token, a great founder also never blames the failure of their startup because of an external source. A great founder – regardless of the business’s success or failure – learns quickly to not only repeat the same mistake again, but also develop insights and skills to push their business forward. While you as the founder isn’t required to be the best in the world of a particular skill, you will need to practice and accel at it until you can find the best in the world. But to hire the best in the world, you also have to be reasonably literate in the field to differentiate the best from the second best.

The solution

Here’s what investors are looking for instead:

  1. We’ve thought about the problem. We’ve A/B tested with these 3 strategies (and why we chose each strategy). Numbers-wise, Strategy B proves to: (a) have the most traction, and (b) is most closely aligned with our core metric – revenue.
  2. Here are the 2-3 core milestones we plan to hit once we get this injection of capital. And we will do what it takes to get there. In order to get there, we’ve thought about hiring an expert in operational efficiency and purchasing these 5 tools to help us hit these milestones. For the former, here’s who we’ve talked to, why we think they’re a perfect fit, and what each of their responses are so far. For the latter, each tool in this short list can help us save X amount of time and Y amount of burn. Do you think we’re approaching these goals in an optimal way?
    • Note: The signal you’re giving here is that you and your team are results-/goals-oriented, while the process of getting to those goals are fluid and stress-tested.

In both cases, you’re showing your potential investors that you’ve done your homework already (versus a Hail Mary). But at the end of the day, you are open and willing to entertain their suggestions, which, ideally, come with years of experience in operating and/or advising other founders who have gone through a similar journey.

So, stay curious out there! Always question the seemingly unquestionable!

Photo by gaspar manuel zaldo on Unsplash


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How Prospect Theory Relates to Venture Capital

economics, prospect theory, coins, venture capital

The other day, I saw a post on r/venturecapital (and now you know what my Reddit handle is) asking how prospect theory relates to venture capital. Admittedly, quite thought-provoking! Ever since college, I’ve been a huge behavioral economics buff – how human psychology dictates market motions. And, prospect theory happens to fall in that category.

First developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory is a behavioral model that says humans are naturally loss-averse. Oh, you might know the former Nobel Prize bugger from authoring Thinking, Fast and Slow, a book I highly recommend if you’re curious about the intricacies of how our brain understands the data around us. Simply put, we react stronger to losing something than when we gain something.

*As you can see, this graph is safe for family-friendly programming

For example, I’m more likely to feel the loss after losing my $1500 cellphone than the ephemeral gain of winning a grand and a half in the lottery. On one end, you’re probably thinking that makes sense. On the other end, you’re probably calling me a loser for spending so much on a cellphone. Well, joke’s on you. I got my phone for $250 on Black Friday. But I digress. In another instance, if you look at kids, they’re more likely to throw a tantrum if you take away a marshmallow on their plate than give you a hug for giving them an extra marshmallow.

Similarly…

As you might expect, prospect theory informs many of my investing/sourcing decisions, including:

So, VCs and prospect theory

So, you’re probably now thinking: “Gimme the deets.”

While prospect theory suggests people typically weigh the impact of their losses more than they so their wins, VCs are humans at the end of the day. Just like your amateur naive stock trader will hold on to losses, and sell their wins, many VCs tend to do the same, as a reactionary measure.

It’s counterintuitive. But the name of the game in early-stage investing is not about how many losses you’ve sustained (especially when 7 out of every 10 go out of business, 2-3 break even, and hopefully 1 makes it), but about the magnitude of the wins an investor makes.

For instance, if you’ve invested in 100 companies, and 99 go out of business, and 1 makes 200x, you just doubled your fund. Of course, a successful fund typically makes 3-5x cash on cash multiple. Just our fancy way of saying your fund returns $3-5 for every dollar invested by a limited partner (LP). Although there are some nuances, many VC investors use cash on cash and multiple on invested capital (MOIC) quite interchangeably.

Guess for you to be counted as a successful investor, that one investment’s gotta go to 300x, at the minimum. In reality, you’re probably not going to have just one investment perform. Especially if you’re in the top quartile of VCs out there. You’re looking at a ~2.5% unicorn rate. So 2-3 investments of your 100 investments should be valued at over a billion dollars. Unless you’re Chris Sacca, who I hear returned 250x cash on cash for his first $8.4M seed fund, which included the likes of Uber, Twitter, and Instagram.

Of course, larger funds are harder to return. It’s easier to return a $10M fund than a $1B, much less a $100B. While I’m not supporting the only $100B vehicle known to date, the losses that fund sustained made the front page news a while back. And though by monetary value, they lost more than most other funds out there. Percentage-wise, they’re not alone. But in the public and media’s eyes, their losses are weighted more heavily than smaller funds.

In closing/Disclaimer

But hey, I’m no registered investment advisor. If you’re looking for which specific startups to invest in, please do consult with a professional. While I may share what startups have attracted my attention here and there, my thoughts are just my own thoughts. And, this post is merely me sharing the correlation between venture capital and prospect theory, plus a few digressions.

Photo by Josh Appel on Unsplash


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