I wrote both a Twitter thread (I know it’s X now, but habits die hard) and a LinkedIn post recently on student and recent graduate funds. A good friend and I have been seeing a number of small sub-$10M funds run by college students and/or recent grads. And even more since the afore-mentioned social posts came out. In a way, it was my flag in the sand moment inviting additional conversations on the topic.
Full LinkedIn post here. Truncated this to make it easier to read.
The TL;DR version of the post, although the post itself is at most a two-minute read, is that these student funds are interesting. Most will die. But a small, small few will deliver insane returns. As such, as LPs, the underwriting for these funds, where sourcing is extremely predictable (i.e. invest in their peers), needs for these funds to be 10X funds, as opposed to 5X net for the typical seed fund or 3X for the typical Series A fund. Also, we know going in that most, if not all, of these funds won’t be enduring. Most likely one and done.
And so what does the underwriting look like?
I actually elaborated on this in response to a comment that asked what percent of unicorns were founded by students, but thought it made sense to expand here in this blogpost as well.
Venture, at the end of the day, is a game driven by the power law. I’m not the first to say that. And I won’t be the last. In other words, in VC, we are applauded not by our batting average (like buyouts or hedge funds), but by the magnitude of our home runs. We can miss on the vast majority, but as long as we strike one Uber or Coupang or Google or Facebook and it returns multiple times of our portfolio, then… we did it.
To quote a Midas list investor (who’ll go nameless for now, until I have his permission to share his name), who at the time was presenting on stage, “The only reason you are listening to me today is because I’m on the Midas list. And the only reason I’m on the Midas list is because of this one investment I made [redacted] years ago.”
Obviously, there was definitely some modesty there. In fact, he’s hit a number of exits in the years since. Nevertheless, when said in broad strokes, his point stands.
So to the comment that started it all. By numbers, a rather small number of unicorns were founded by active students. I don’t know the exact number (writing this on vacation, and I don’t have Pitchbook access on this small device), but I’m willing to bet that only a small percentage of unicorns are founded by students. And even less when you consider realized unicorn exits. Excluding the crazy markups of 2020-2022. It’s why the average age of a startup founder is 42 at the inception of the company.
That said, “Among the top 0.1% of startups based on growth in their first five years, [an HBR study finds] that the founders started their companies, on average, when they were 45 years old.” In fact, in the same study, they found “[r]elative to founders with no relevant experience, those with at least three years of prior work experience in the same narrow industry as their startup were 85% more likely to launch a highly successful startup.” In a separate Endeavor study, it’s also why there’s only a small sliver of founders with no work experience prior to the founding of their unicorn company.
To build a hypothetical portfolio — forgive my generalizations, but doing so for nice, even numbers…
Say one allocates a $10M fund of funds portfolio. It’ll write 10 $1M checks into $5M funds. In other words, for a 20% stake at the fund level. In a bad economy, where $200M is the median ARR to go public, and if we assume a 10x multiple on exit, a $2B unicorn exit in that $5M VC fund returns ~$2.2M in the fund of funds portfolio. 0.6% equity valued at $12M. A 2.4X on the $5M fund alone. And a little over $2.2M back to the LP, as the GP takes 20% carry. This assumes $100K checks, 2% ownership on entry and 70% dilution by the time of exit. Naturally, no reserves. needing about 10-11 unicorns to 2x. A lot to expect for a portfolio of student funds. 10 unicorns out of 400 is quite hard even for most seasoned investors.
And so one must believe that these student funds can find true outliers. And before anyone else. Additionally have enough downstream capital relationships to facilitate intros to funds who will lead current and future rounds. Which luckily for them, a lot of GPs of multi-stage funds are individual LPs in these funds. Playing a pure access approach.
And so, if there’s a $10B exit in one of the VC portfolios, under the same fund strategy assumptions as earlier, a single $10B company exit returns the whole fund of funds portfolio. Every other exit will just be cherries on top. So out of a 400 underlying startup portfolio, only one decacorn exit is needed. Instead of multiple unicorns.
Separately, and worth noting, although I’ll be honest, I haven’t had a single conversation with a young GP where any were as deliberate with their sell strategy as this, there are multiple exit paths today outside of M&A and IPO, most notably secondaries (portfolio and fund) (something that the one and only Hunter Walk wrote recently in a blogpost far more eloquently than I could have put it). And so even in a crazy AI hype right now, there are paths to liquidity in these multi billion valuations at the Series B and C, if not earlier. In the increasing availability of such options, my only hope is that these young fund managers have the wherewithal to be disciplined sellers. Perhaps, an additional reason these young VCs should have LPACs.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
I’ve always been fascinated by how to get to the bottom of things. Yes, you can do your homework into the data, but at the end of the day, you have to go back to people and their experience.
Jeff Bezos has this line: “The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it.”
So, when it comes down to finding the right anecdotes, I’m a big believer that asking the right questions gets you most of the way there. It’s why I started the DGQ series on this blog. Naturally, I spend a lot of time studying others who are better at the craft than I am. After all, I have a long road ahead of me. While this is obviously useful in the context of my podcast, studying the best interviewers has also helped me when:
Listening to founder and GP pitches
Doing diligence
Interviewing potential candidates for a role
Making friends
Small talk
Coffee chats / when asking for advice
And of course, when doing research.
So while you may not have a podcast — or maybe you do — I hope you find the below useful in regards to other aspects of your life.
The callback
What is the callback? A callback — a term quite often used in the comedy circuit — is an allusion to something previously brought up in conversation. It’s not only a sign that you’re actively listening, but that you’re actively engaging in the flow of the conversation. For instance, say you hear someone bring up a quote they liked recently. For the purpose of this example, it’s Amos Tversky‘s line. “You waste years by not being able to waste hours.” Then later in the conversation, they say the last hour flew by so quickly. Then a callback could come in the form of, “Better than wasting a year with me.”
Conan O’Brien is world-class at this, if not best-in-class. If you watch his show or his podcast, you’ll see multiple examples. But probably best illustrated in just the number of times he did it in one episode, I’d recommend his episode with Larry David.
Surprise and delight
The first question in a conversation is often the hardest, but also has the greatest impact towards the rest of the conversation. Getting someone to put down their guardrails without pre-established rapport is really, really hard. It’s why podcasters and TV show hosts alike have pre-chats, where they spend time with each guest to warm them up.
It’s for that reason I have a lot of respect for Sean Evans who hosts Hot Ones. The number of times his guests have responded to his questions with “How did you know that?” and “You really did your research” or “I’ve never been asked that before” is a refreshing take in a world where talk show interviews are just a formality for a celebrity’s road show. And not only does the style and how Sean ask questions set the show apart from literally every other interview that celebrities go on, you can see how his first few questions help him build instant rapport with a guest whether or not they knew each other well before.
That said, I’d be hard-pressed to find just one as he’s able to execute well for most episodes of Hot Ones already. If you’re short on time, the only ones I find to be little less helpful, at least to see the mutual banter, are probably the ones where he’s interviewing himself, or a fictional character (i.e. Donald Duck or himself), or the guest and him go through less than 10 chicken wings (aka the full gauntlet).
Underneath the surface
Despite having hosted a number of fireside chats, when I first started Superclusters, I was obsessed with hitting every question I had prepared. An internal expectation that because the podcast is a public asset and is likely to be online till the end of time made me feel I had to cram as much information into each interview as possible. The funny thing is I still didn’t end up covering the lion share of questions.
For each episode, I end up preparing anywhere between 10 and 30 questions. Yes, you read that latter number right. And yes, for a roughly hour-long podcast. Naturally, there’s no way in hell I’d get to the vast majority of questions, but in mind, I had an internal drumbeat that I felt compelled to keep on pace with.
The more I talked with other seasoned podcasters, the more I realize that while others may not prepare as much research as I do before each interview, the best ones let the conversation flow. They ask great follow-up questions. They spend time on the nuance of words, phrases, even micro-reactions and flinches when guests speak or hear something. One of the most useful pieces of advice I got from a friend, Erica Wenger, was to do all the research you humanly can before each recording. Then, ask the first question, and throw the rest out the door. Which I’ve sinceinternalized.
Tim Ferriss is my favorite on this front. And he does this for almost every single one of his episodes. That said, if you’re looking for a starting point, his episode with Eric Ripert was the first one I actually sat down with pen and paper purely to take notes on how Tim follows up with each of Eric’s comments.
By a friend’s recent recommendation, I also stumbled across The Diary of a CEO podcast. I will admit that the first few episodes I came across I found less interesting from a content perspective. But when three episodes later, I tuned into his episode with Marc Randolph, and holy cow, the depth of questions was clearly a cut above the rest, specifically around when Marc had to step down as CEO of Netflix. And you can just see Steven Bartlett asking one great question after the next.
Avoiding the yes
The fallacy with many rookie podcasters, admittedly my own rookie mistake as well, is that the host doesn’t push back on the guest’s answers enough. When an answer just isn’t good enough. Either the one answering dodges the question or kept their answer too broad.
Hasan Minhaj is my go-to person on this front as he’s incredible at pushing back thoughtfully, which is a really hard thing to do. One of my favorite interviews he did by far was the one he did with Kevin O’Leary on FTX, which Kevin personally invested in.
Drills, drills, drills
I can’t say I got this from any one podcaster, but actually something I learned from my time as a competitive swimmer. For every race we competed, we had to practice sets of twice the distance regularly. Even more so, we had to practice with a handicap, focusing on refining the technique for only part of our body. Be it legs only, or arms only, hell we even swam with our goggles black-sharpied out before. To us, these were drills that would help prepare us for the real thing.
As a podcaster, in case you couldn’t tell, I’m still a work-in-progress. Likely will always be. That said, one of the most helpful ways I’ve found to practice the art of asking questions (since I’m not in race mode every day) is I often listen to the above shows, hear the host ask the question. Then wait for the guest to respond. Then right before the host asks another question, I practice what I would say and where I’d interrupt. And only after I’ve said my response aloud, do I press play again and see what the host would say.
To me, those are the drills I run through when I can to prepare myself when I am eventually on camera. Other times, it’s just fun to see how my response or line of questions would differ from some of these other hosts.
In closing
I’ve often given the excuse that I’m a better writer than I’m a speaker. Which may be true. I often sit with myself during the editing process and wince at words I’ve used or using some complex language to explain what could have been a 140-character question. And the truth is, I’ve held myself back. By giving that very excuse. So now I am earnestly trying to improve. To close that gap, that delta between the way I write and the way I talk. At least from a proficiency standpoint. It may take me a while. But I appreciate every one of you being on this journey with me. And if there’s any advice you can share along this path, as some of you are further along, I’m all ears.
I hope the next time I write something like this, I’ll be further along. And maybe… just maybe, find myself circa today to be embarrassing to watch and listen to.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
This one was inspired by Harry Stebbings’ episode with Dan Siroker that I tuned into earlier this week. In it, Dan describes his most memorable VC meeting, which happened to be with Peter Fenton at Benchmark. Where Peter asks Dan, “Dan, what’s gonna get you excited to be at this business in five years?”
In sum, what are your future motivations going to look like? Nine out of ten times, it’s likely not going to be exactly the same as the one today. And given that it will look differently, can you still stay true to the North Star of this business as you do today? What’s gonna change? What’s gonna stay the same?
For the most part, the people and the problem space are likely to stay the same. The product may look quite different though. And it’s highly likely that in five years, you would have found product-market fit. So, that’s Act I. Is it the advent of the next chapter of what your company could look like that gets you excited? Hell it might be. You can then tackle a bigger problem. A larger market. An adjacent market. Or what Bangaly Kaba calls the adjacent users. For some founders, it’s the market they always wanted to tackle, but couldn’t when they realized their beachhead market must be something else.
While I can’t speak for everyone, here are some of the answers I’ve personally come to like over the years. From either founders or fund managers:
There is no other industry that offers the same velocity of learning that this one provides.
I want my company’s legacy to outlive my own. And I want to empower the next generation of builders with the resources and the power to solve the greatest needs of our generation.
I want to go home and tell my my wife/husband/kids that I lived my fullest life today. And this is what gives me endless joy.
Act I was solving a problem I faced. Act II is solving a problem others face in our space.
Getting on the phone with a customer and hearing how much our product changed their lives makes me really happy.
If I’m not regularly putting the firm’s reputation on the line, we’re not trying hard enough. And I live for that challenge.
I want to build a world where people don’t settle for “It is what it is.”
No one else is solving the problem I want to solve in the way that I believe it should be solved.
I want to continue to be a superhero, a role model, for my daughter/son.
In many ways, it’s quite similar to the question I ask first-time GPs or aspiring GPs about their motivation.
Things in venture exist on long time horizons. For founders, it’s at least 7-9 years before an exit. For fund managers, it’s 10-15 years per fund. And that’s just a single fund. Anything more is longer. So in order to compete against the very best, you need to have long time horizons. You must have the resolve to stay the course. As Kevin Kelly says, “The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.”
Along the same vein, there’s also a Jeff Bezos quote I really like: “If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people… Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue.”
The DGQ series is a series dedicated to my process of question discovery and execution. When curiosity is the why, DGQ is the how. It’s an inside scoop of what goes on in my noggin’. My hope is that it offers some illumination to you, my readers, so you can tackle the world and build relationships with my best tools at your disposal. It also happens to stand for damn good questions, or dumb and garbled questions. I’ll let you decide which it falls under.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
This is an addendum to the blogpost I wrote back in April of this year. Catalyzed by something Seth Godin recently shared. Which led me down a rabbit hole, and eventually to this sequel.
Seth Godin shared some fascinating perspective recently. “Turnover is a good thing when we are doing human work, not a bad thing. And what I would do if I was running a real company is I would say the first thing you’ve got to do on your first day is update your LinkedIn page and keep it up to date. And we’re going to have a resume job finding seminar every two weeks here. I don’t want you to stay here because you can’t get a better job. I want you to stay here because the conditions we’ve created, the work we are doing is worth you staying here for. And then I would listen.
“If I’m not creating the conditions where the people who I need to be dancing with want to stay, I have to change the conditions, not curse the people who are leaving.”
Which reminds me of a great Jerry Colonna dictum, “How am I complicit in creating the conditions I say I don’t want?” While the line is meant to be applied to an individual’s own awareness of how their environment is partly a product of their own design, it is equally as powerful in organizational design. Have you created an environment that lends itself to turnover? Is that by intention or lack thereof?
While I’m not urging founders to be less disciplined with their burn rate, Precursor’s Charles Hudson found one interesting piece of data recently. He wrote, “You cannot save your way to success. Our portfolio companies that graduated from pre-seed to seed typically spent more per month than those that failed to graduate. This result was consistent with what I’ve observed; the companies finding product-market fit spend more to keep up with growth and customer demand.”
While the above may be true when you graduate from the pre-seed to the seed, by the time you get to the A, it’s about securing great talent.
But let’s say your star talent has left (meaning that they passed the equivalent of Netflix’s Keeper test or any of these other culture tests). The one thing you DO have to be wary of is the morale of those who stay. Has your team members leaving broken the morale of the company? How fast can you get the team to bounce back?
To set some context, Frank Slootmandefines winning as breaking the competitors’ will to fight. “In a world of software, you break the enemy’s will to fight when you are hiring their people because they have given up. They’d rather be with you than they are with the other company, because it’s too hard and too painful and they’re not making any money. So, ‘I’m going to join the winner instead of stick with delusion.'” And in Bezos’ words, “when the last person with good judgment gives up,” your team’s will has been broken.
Each team member leaving has a non-zero chance of creating this snowball effect. As the founder, maintaining culture and momentum is important. As Bob Iger once said, “[The] most important measures of success for a CEO [are] internal satisfaction, investor relations and consumer support.” In my experience, the first of the three is often far less obvious to first-time founders than the latter two.
So how does one maintain internal satisfaction?
The truth is there’s no one right answer. So, instead, I’ll share some tactics I’ve seen work well.
The last day for someone should be on Friday. It gives teammates the weekend to unwind and doesn’t affect their work ethic in the weekdays immediately after.
Set up 1:1 time with all their direct reports and who they reported to (if the latter person isn’t you) within the week after that person’s last day. While the obvious next steps may be to figure out the new chain of command and reporting structure, the first conversation you have with them should be about how they’re feeling and not about company goals. And have an honest, unfiltered conversation here. Which also means you need to share how you’re feeling as well. Don’t sugarcoat anything. Smart people see through lies very easily.
Offer each direct report to that person a mentor. Either internally in the company or externally. For the latter, there is immense value in helping your team member grow and getting an advisor or someone in your network you respect to get more involved in the company through monthly/quarterly mentorship.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
Voila, the fourth installation of 99 soundbites I’ve been fortunate enough to collect over the past year. The first four of what I imagine of many more to come. Each of which fall under one of the ten categories below, along with how many pieces of advice for each category:
You can also find the first three installments of 99 pieces of advice for both founders and investors here. Totaling us to a total of 396 pieces of advice.
But without further ado…
Fundraising
1/ If you’re an early stage startup, expect fundraising to take at least 3-4 months to raise <$1M. If you’re on the fast side, it may take only 2 weeks. – Elizabeth Yin*timestamped April 2022
2/ If you’re going to raise a round over 6-12 months, it often doesn’t seem fair that your first commits have the same terms as those who commit 6 months later, since you’ve grown and most likely have more traction at the time. As such, reward your early investors with preferred terms. Say you’re raising a $1M round. Break the round up to $300K and $700K. Offer a lower cap on SAFEs for the $300K. “Tell everyone that that offer will only be available until X date OR until you hit $300k in signed SAFEs. And that the cap will most likely go up after that.” Why? It lets you test demand and the pricing on the cap – to see if you’re cap is too high or too low on the first tranche. – Elizabeth Yin
3/ As a startup in recessionary times, you have to grow your revenue faster than valuations are falling to make sure you raise your next round on a mark up. Inspired by David Sacks and Garry Tan. *timestamped April/May 2022
4/ There’s only going to be 1/3 the amount of capital in the markets than in 2020 and 2021. So plan accordingly. If you’re not a top 0.1% startup, plan for longer runways. Fund deployments have been 1-1.3 years over the past 1.5 years, and it’s highly likely we’re going to see funds return back to the 3-year deployment period as markets tighten. *timestamped May 2022
5/ B2B startups that have the below disqualifiers will find it hard to raise funding in a correcting venture market:
No to little growth. Good growth is at least doubling year-over-year.
Negative or low gross margins. Good margins start at 50%.
CAC payback periods are longer than one year.
Burn multiples greater than 2 (i.e. You’re burning $2 for every dollar you bring in). A good burn multiple is 1 or less. – David Sacks
6/ Beware of “dirty term sheets.” Even though you’re able to get the valuation multiple you want, read the fine print for PIK dividends, simple “blocks” on IPO/M&A, and 2-3x liquidation preferences. Inspired by Bill Gurley.
7/ “This came at a very expensive valuation with certain rights that should not have come with it — like participating preferred, which is they first get their money out and then they participate in the rest, which was OK for the earlier rounds, but not for the later ones.” – Sabeer Bhatia in Founders at Work
8/ In a bear market, public market multiples are the reference points, not outlier private market multiples. Why? Public market multiples are their exit prices – how they return the fund. It matters less so in bull markets. – David Sacks
9/ Don’t trust the “why”, trust the “no.” Investors don’t always give the most honest responses when they turn down a company.
10/ If you inflate your projections, the only investors you’ll attract are dumb investors. They’ll be with you when things are going well and make your life a living nightmare when things aren’t, will offer little to no sound advice, and may distract you from building what the market needs. By inflating your projections, you will only be optimizing for the battle, and may lose the war if you can’t meet or beat your projections.
11/ VCs will always want you to do more than you are pitching. So if you’re overpromising, they’re raising their expectations even more down the road.
12/ Five questions you should answer in a pitch deck:
If you had billboard, what 10 words describe what you do?
What insight development have you had that others have not?
How you acquire customers in a way others can’t?
Why you?
What you need to prove/disprove to raise next round? – Harry Stebbings
13/ The longer you’re on the market, the greater the differential between expectations and reality, and the harder it is over time to close your round. Debug early on in the fundraising process (or even before the fundraising process) by setting and defining expectations through:
Leveraging market comparables. You don’t have to be good at everything, but you have be really really amazing at one thing your competitors aren’t. It’s okay if they’re better than you in other parts.
14/ You should reserve 10% of your round to allocate to your most helpful existing investors. Reward investors for their help. – Zach Coelius
15/ If your next round’s investor is willing to screw over your earlier investors out of pro rata or otherwise. After they leave, the only one left to screw over is you. – Jason Calacanis
16/ “Nobody’s funding anything that needs another round after them.” – Ben Narasin quoting Scott Sandell
17/ “When a VC turns you down for market size, what they are really saying is: I don’t believe you as the founder has what it takes to move into adjacent and ancillary markets well.” – Harry Stebbings
18/ When raising from corporates, be mindful of corporate incentives, which may limit your business and exit opportunities. “I’ve often seen the structure just simply be a SAFE with no information rights. No Board seats. Check sizes that are worth < 5% ownership. No access to trade secrets.” – Elizabeth Yin
19/ LOIs mean little to many investors, unless there’s a deposit attached to it. A customer must want the product so much they’re willing to take the risk of putting money down before they get it. 1-5% deposit would be interesting, but if they pay the product in full, you would turn investor heads. – Jason Calacanis
20/ “The most popular software for writing fiction isn’t Word. It’s Excel.” – Brian Alvey
21/ “Ask [prospective investors] about a recent investment loss, where the company picked someone else. See how they describe those founders, the process, and what they learned. This tells you what that investor is like when things don’t go their way.” – Nikhil Basu Trivedi
22/ “Founders, please hang onto at least 60% of the company’s equity through your seed raise. Series A or B is the first time founder equity should dip below 50%. I’ve seen cap tables recently where investors took too much equity early on, creating financing risk down the road.” – Gale Wilkinson
23/ “One of the worst things you can say to a VC is ‘we’re not growing because we’re fundraising.’ There are no excuses in fundraising.” – Jason Lemkin. Fundraising is a full-time job, but when you’re competing in a saturated market of attention, it’s you who’s fundraising, but not growing, versus another founder who’s also fundraising and is growing.
25/ The goalposts of fundraising (timestamped Oct 20, 2022 by Andrea Funsten):
Pre-seed: $750K-1.5M round
Valuation: $5-10M post (*She would not go over $7M)
Traction:
A working MVP
Indications of customer demand = have interviewed hundreds of potential customers or users
2-5 “Design Partners” (non-paying customers or users)
Seed: $2-5M round
Valuation: $12-25M post (*She would not go over $15M)
Traction:
$10-15K MRR, growing 10% MoM
6-12 customers who have been paying for ~6 months or more, a few that would serve as case studies and references
Hired first technical AE
Series A: $8-15M round
Valuation: “anyone’s guess”
Traction:
$1.5M in ARR is good, more like $2M
3x YoY growth minimum, but more like 3.5x • 12-20 customers, indications of ACV growth
Sales team in place to implement the repeatable sales playbook
26/ Don’t take on venture debt unless you have revenue AND an experienced CFO. – Jason Calacanis
27/ When you are choosing lead investor term sheets:
For small VC teams (team <10ppl): Make sure your sponsoring partner is your champion. Why does investing in you align with their personal thesis? Their life thesis? Which other teams do they spend time with? How much time do they spend with them? When things don’t go according to plan, how do they react? How do they best relay expectations and feedback to their portfolio founders?
For larger platform teams (team >10ppl): Ask to talk to the 3-5 best people at the firm. And when the investor asks you to define “best”, ask to talk to their team members who best represent the firm’s culture and thesis. Why? a/ This helps you best understand the firm’s culture and if there’s investor-founder fit. b/ You get to know the best people on the team. And will be easier to hit them up in the future.
28/ “If you are a category-defining company, you will always have a TAM question, if the category is defined by somebody else, you will not have a TAM question.” – Abhiraj Bhal
29/ “[Venture] debt typically has a 48-54 month term, as follows: 12 months of a draw period (ballooned to 18 months over the last few years), to which you can decide to use it or not 36 months to amortize it after that 12 months. The lender at this stage is primarily underwriting to venture risk, meaning they are relying on the venture investor syndicate to continue to fund through a subsequent round of financing.” This debt is likely to be paired with language that allow the fund to default if investors say they won’t fund anymore and/or just not to fund when asked. “They typically are getting 10bps-50bps of equity ownership through warrants. Loss rates must be <3-4% for the model to work.” If there’s less than 6 months of runway or cash dips below outstanding debt, then as a founder, expect a lot of distracting calls. – Samir Kaji
30/ The best way to ask for intros to investors is not by asking for intros, but by hosting an event and having friends invite investors to the event. There’s less friction in an event invite ask than an investor intro ask. The reality is that the biggest investors are inundated with intro requests all the time, if not just by cold email too.
Cash flow levers
31/ The bigger your customers’ checks are (i.e. enterprise vs. SMB vs consumer), the longer the sales pipeline. The longer the sales pipeline, the longer you, the founder, has to stay the Head of Sales. For enterprise, the best founders stay VP of Sales until $10M ARR. For SMB, that’s about $1-2M ARR, before you hire a VP of Sales. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
32/ “‘I have nothing to sell you today — let’s take that off the table and just talk,’ he would say. ‘My goal is to earn the right to have a relationship with you, and I know it’s my responsibility to earn that right.'” The sales playbook of David Beirne of Benchmark Capital fame, cited in eBoys.
33/ “All things being equal, a heavy reliance on marketing spend will hurt your valuation multiple.” – Bill Gurley
34/ If you were to double or triple the price of your product, what percent of customers would churn? If the answer is anything south of 50%, why aren’t you doing it?
35/ Getting big customers and raising capital is often a chicken-and-egg game. Sometimes, you need brand name customers, before you can raise. And other times, you need capital before you can build at the scale for brand name customers. So, when I read about Vinod Khosla’s advice for Joe Kraus: “We had $1 million in the bank and we didn’t know what we were going to bid. We sat down in my office, all on the floor. Vinod said we should bid $3 million. I was like, ‘How do we bid $3 million? We only have $1 million in the bank.’ And he said, ‘Well, if we win, I’m pretty sure we can raise it, but if we don’t win, I don’t know how we’re going to raise.'”
36/ “Your ability to raise money is your strategy. If you’re great at it, build any business with network effects. If you’re bad at fundraising, it’s strategically better to build a subscription business with no network effects.” – Elizabeth Yin
37/ Be willing to fire certain customers (when things get tough or in an economic downturn). If they aren’t critical strategic partners or are loss making, figure out how to make them profitable. If you can, renegotiate contracts, like cheaper contracts for longer durations. If not, let them go. Make it easy to offboard.
38/ An average SaaS business, that doesn’t have product-led growth, is spending about 50% of revenue on sales and marketing. Those that are in hyper growth are spending 60%. – Jason Lemkin
39/ “The only thing worse than selling nothing is selling a few. If you sell nothing, you stick a bullet in it and move on. When you sell a few, you get hope. People keep funding even though it’s really not viable.” – Frank Slootman
40/ If your customer wants to cancel their auto-renew subscription to your product, you should refund them a 100% of their cost. – Jason Lemkin
41/ “Your price isn’t too high. Your perceived value is too low.” – Codie Sanchez
42/ “15-20% of IT spend is in the cloud.” And it’s likely to go up. – Alex Kayyal
43/ If your customers are willing to pay you way ahead of when your service is executed, you have an unfair and unparalleled cashflow advantage. – Harry Stebbings
44/ If you’re in the CPG business, it’s better to negotiate down the contract. “You buy 75, and you sell 60, they’re going to go, ‘Ah, I got 15,000 in inventory, it’s not a success.’ If you give them 40, and then they have to buy another 20, and they sell 60, they go, ‘Wow, we ordered 50 [(I think he meant 20)] more than our original order.’ You’re still at 60, but one, they’re disappointed, and one, they’re not. You’re still playing some weird mind games a little bit so that they feel good about whatever number was there.” – Todd McFarlane
45/ “If you are under 100 customer/users, get 20 of them in a Whatsapp Group. You will:
Get much higher quality feedback, faster, on the current product.
They will be WAY more proactive in suggesting future product ideas and helping you shape the product roadmap.
It will create a closer relationship between you and them and they will become champions of the product and company. People like to feel they had a hand in the creation process.” – Harry Stebbings
46/ Create multiple bank accounts with different banks to keep your cash, to hedge against the risk of a bank run. The risk is very unlikely to occur, but non-zero, especially in a recessionary market. Inspired by SVB on March 10, 2023. More context here, and what happened after here. Breakdowns here, here and here.
47/ “Keep two core operating accounts, each with 3-6 months of cash. Maintain a third account for “excess cash” to be invested in safe, liquid options to generate slightly more income.” – A bunch of firms
48/ “Maintain an emergency line of credit. Obtain a line of credit from one of your core banks that can fund the company for 6 months. Do not touch it unless necessary.” – A bunch of firms
49/ In case of a bank run: “1/ Freeze outgoing payments, let vendors know you need 60 days, 2/ Figure out payroll & let your investors know exactly when cash out, 3/ Attempt emergency bridge with existing investors; hopefully reasonable terms or senior debt (but given valuation reset this is a HARD discussion for many), 4/ Figure out who can take deferred salary on management team, which will extend runway, 5/ Make sure you communicate reality to team honestly so they can make similar plan for their household, 6/ Make sure you talk to HR about legal issues around payroll shortfall — which hopefully this doesn’t come to, 7/ In future, keep cash in 3 different banks.” – Jason Calacanis
50/ “Whenever a CEO blames their bad performance on the economy, I knew I had a really crappy CEO. ‘Cause it wasn’t the economy, it was a bad product-market fit. The dogs didn’t wanna eat the dogfood. Sometimes the economy can make that a little worse, but if people are desperate for your product, it doesn’t matter if the times are good or bad, they’re going to buy your product.” – Andy Rachleff
51/ General reference points for ACV and time to close are: $1K in 1 week. $10K in 1 month. $100K in 3 months. $300K in 6 months. And $1M in 12 months. – Brian Murray
52/ A B2B salesperson’s script from Seth Godin. “Look, you’ve told me you have this big problem you need to solve. You have a five million assembly line that’s letting you down, blah blah. If we can solve this problem together, are you ready to install our system? Because if it’s not real, let’s not play. Don’t waste my time, I won’t waste yours. You’re not going to buy from me because I’m going to take you to the golf course. You’re not going to buy from me because our RFP is going to come in cheaper than somebody else’s. You want my valuable time? I’m going to engage with you, and tell you the truth and you’ll tell me the truth. You’re going to draw your org chart for me. You’re going to tell me other complicated products you’ve bought and why your company bought them. And I’m going to get you promoted by teaching you how to buy the thing that’s going to save your assembly line. Let’s get real or let’s not play.” – Seth Godin
53/ “The job of a pre-seed founder is to turn investor dollars into insights that get the company closer to finding product-market fit.” – Charles Hudson
Culture
54/ Deliver (bad) news promptly. Keep to a schedule. The longer you delay, the more you lose your team’s confidence in you. For example, if your updates come out every other Friday, and you miss a few days, your team members notice. Your team is capable of taking the tough news. This is what they signed up for. Explain a stumble before it materially impacts your bottom line – revenue. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
56/ “It’s easier, even fun, to do something hard when you believe you’re doing something that no one else can. It’s really hard to go to work every day to build the same thing, or an even worse version, of what others are already building. As a result, there was a huge talent drain from the company.” – Packy McCormick
57/ Lead your team with authenticity and transparency. “Employees have a ridiculously high bullshit detector, more so than anyone externally, because they know you better. They know the internal brand better.” So you have to be honest with them. “Here’s what we’re going to tell you. Here’s what we won’t, and here’s why.” Set clear expectations and leave nothing to doubt. – Nairi Hourdajian
58/ When someone ask Jeff Bezos, when does an internal experiment get killed? He says, “When the last person with good judgment gives up.” – Bill Gurley citing Jeff Bezos
59/ “Getting too high on a ‘yes’ can prepare you for an even bigger fall at the next ‘no.’ Maintaining your composure in the high moments can be just as important as not getting too down in the low moments.” – Amber Illig
60/ “Most have an unlimited policy paired with a results-driven culture. This means it’s up to the employee to manage their time appropriately. For example, no one bats an eye when the top performing sales person takes a 3 week vacation. But if someone is not pulling their weight and vacationing all the time, the perception is that they’re not cut out for a startup.” – Amber Illig
61/ “Whenever we’re dealing with a problem and we call a meeting to talk about the problem, I always start with this structure. We are here to solve a problem. So the one option that we know we’re not going to leave the room doing is the status quo. That is off the table. So whenever we finish this meeting, I want to talk about what option we’re taking, but it’s not going to be what we’re currently doing.” – Tobi Lutke
62/ “[Peter Reinhardt] would put plants in different parts of the office in order for the equilibrium of oxygen and CO2 to be the same. He would put noise machines in the perfectly placed areas and then reallocate the types of teams that needed to be by certain types of noise so that the decibel levels were consistent. What I don’t think people realize about founders is that they are maniacal about the details. They are unbelievable about the things that they see.” – Joubin Mirzadegan
63/ “Leadership is disappointing people at a rate they can absorb.” – Claire Hughes Johnson
64/ Page 19 Thinking: If you were to crowdsource the writing of a book, someone has to start inking the 19th page. And it’s gotta be good, but you can’t make it great on the first try. So you have to ask someone else to make it better, and they have to ask another to make their edits even better. And so on. Until page 19 looks like a real page 19. “Once you understand that you live in a page 19 world, the pressure is on for you to put out work that can generously be criticized. Don’t ship junk, not allowed, but create the conditions for the thing you’re noodling on to become real. That doesn’t happen by you hoarding it until it’s perfect. It happens by you creating a process for it to get better.” – Seth Godin
Hiring
65/ Hiring when your valuation is insanely high is really hard. Their options could very much be valueless, since they would depend on the next valuation being even higher, which either means you grow faster than valuations fall (market falls in a bear market) or you extend your runway before you need to fundraise again.
66/ It’s easier to retain great talent in a recession, but much harder to retain them during an expansionary market. Talent in a boom market have too many options. There’s more demand than there is supply of talent in a boom market.
67/ If you’re a company with low employee churn, you can afford to wait a while longer to find someone who is 20% better in the role. – Luis von Ahn
68/ “[Fractional CMOs and CROs often] want to be strategists. Tell you where to focus, and what to do better. But the thing is, what you almost always just need is a great full-time leader to implement all the ideas.” – Jason Lemkin. The only time it works is when the fractional exec owns the KPI and the function, where they work at least 60% of the time OR they work part-time and help you hire a full-time VP.
69/ Hire your first full-time comms person after you hit product-market fit, when you are no longer finding your first customers, but looking to grow your customer base. – Nairi Hourdajian
70/ “Ask [a high-performing hire] if there’s someone senior in her career that’s been a great manager, and if so, bring them on as an equity-compensated advisor to your company. If there’s someone in industry she really admires but doesn’t yet know, reach out to them on her behalf.” Give her an advisor equity budget, so they can bring on a mentor or someone they really respect in the industry. As a founder, create a safe space for both of them. Monthly 1:1s and as-needed tactical advice, introductions, and so on. And don’t ask that mentor to give performance feedback “because if so it’s less likely they’ll have honest, open conversations.” – Hunter Walk
71/ Hire talent over experience for marketing and product. “In marketing and product I prefer people with less experience and a lot of talent so we can teach them how we do things. They don’t have to unlearn anything about how they already work. We teach them how we work. For developers it might be different because it takes a lot of time to be a really good developer, and it’s relatively easy moving from one environment to another.” – Avishai Abrahami
72/ If you’re going to use an executive search firm to hire an exec, ask the firm three questions: “1/ Walk me through your hardest search? 2/ Walk me through a failed search? 3/ Why did it fail? 4/ How do you assess whether an exec is a good fit?” You should be interviewing the firm as much as the candidate. Watch out for “a firm with a history of candidates leaving in a short timeframe. Avoid firms that recycle the same execs.” – Yin Wu
73/ Before signing with any recruiting agency, ask “What happens if the person hired is a bad fit? (Many firms will restart the search to align incentives.) Is there a time limit for the search? (Some firms cap the search at 6 months. We’ve worked with firms without caps.)” – Yin Wu
Governance
74/ “The higher the frequency and quality of a young startup’s investor update, the more likely they are to succeed in the long run.” – Niko Bonatsos
75/ Five metrics you should include in your monthly investor updates:
Monthly revenue and burn, in a chart, for the whole year
Cash in the bank, at a specific date, and runway based on that
Quarterly performance for the past 8 quarters, in a chart
Target for the quarter AND year and how you are trending toward it
76/ Another reason to send great, consistent investor updates is that when prospective investors backchannel, you want to set your earlier investors up for success on how they pitch you.
77/ If you don’t have a board yet, still have an “investor meeting.” “Create investor meetings where you invite all your investors to do an in-person + Google Hangout’ed review every 60 days. They don’t have to come. But they can.” – Jason Lemkin
78/ “[The] most important measures of success for a CEO [are] internal satisfaction, investor relations and consumer support.” – Bob Iger
79/ “Entrepreneurs have control when things work; VCs have control when they don’t.” – Fred Wilson
80/ If an investor really wants their money back (usually when VCs have buyer’s remorse), there are times when they force you to sell or shut down your companies. Instead, ask them, “What would it take to get you off my cap table?” – Chris Neumann
Product
81/ “The ones that focus, statistically, win at a much higher rate than the ones that try to do two or three things at once.” – Bruce Dunlevie, cited in eBoys
82/ Once you launch, you’re going to be measured against how quickly you can ramp up to $1M ARR. One year is good. Nine months is great.
83/ The more layers of friction in the onboarding process (i.e. SSN, email address, phone number, survey questions), the better you know your user, but the higher the dropoff rate. For PayPal, for every step a user had to take to sign up, there was a dropoff rate of 30%. – Max Levchin in Founders at Work
84/ “Product-market fit can be thought of as progressively eliminating all Herbies until there are no more Herbies. Then, you’re in a mode where you can invest in growth because it’s frictionless.” – Mike Maples Jr. (In the book, The Goal, the trek is often delayed by a large kid called Herbie. As you can imagine, the group only moves as quickly as their weakest link.)
85/ “There’s a ruthlessness in the way Dylan finds sources, uses them and moves on.” – No Direction Home. Be ruthless about how knowledgeable you can be about your customers, about your problem space, and about your product. The knowledge compounds.
Competition
86/ “If you patent [software], you make it public. Even if you don’t know someone’s infringing, they will still be getting the benefit. Instead, we just chose to keep it a trade secret and not show it to anyone.” – Max Levchin in Founders at Work
87/ If you know you’re building in a hot space, and your competitors are being bought by private equity firms, share that with your (prospective) investors. The competitors’ innovation slows, and optimizing for profit and the balance sheet becomes a priority when PE firms come in. – David Sacks
88/ “As a startup, you always want to compete against someone who has ‘managed dissatisfaction at the heart of their business model.” – Marc Randolph
89/ “You cannot overtake 15 cars in sunny weather… but you can when it’s raining.” – Ayrton Senna. It’s easier to overtake your competitors in tough markets than great markets.
90/ “Having a real, large competitor is better than having none at all!” – Anna Khan
Brand/Marketing/GTM
91/ If you’re a consumer product, your goal should be to become next year’s hottest Halloween costume. Your goal shouldn’t be fit into a social trend, but to define one.
92/ Don’t be married to the name of your company. 40% of NFX‘s early stage investments change their names after they invest in the seed.
93/ The viral factor doesn’t take into account the time factor of virality. In other words, how long it takes for users to bring on non-users. Might be better instead to use an exponential formula. “Think of a basic exponential equation: X to the Y power. X is the branching factor, in each cycle how many new people do you spread to. Y is the number of cycles you can execute in a given time period. The path to success is typically the combination of a high branching factor combined with a fast cycle time.” – Adam Nash
94/ In a down market, you may not need as big of a marketing budget as you thought. Your competitors are likely not spending as much, if at all, to win the same keywords as before.
Legal
95/ “Nothing is more expensive than a cheap lawyer.” – Nolan Church
The hard questions
96/ “I’d love to kill it and I’d hate to kill it. You know that emotion is exactly the emotion you feel when it’s time to shut it down.” – Andy Rachleff, cited in eBoys
97/ “Inexperienced founders are usually too slow to fire bad people. Here’s a trick that may help. Have all the cofounders separately think of someone who should probably be fired, then compare notes. If they all thought of the same person…” – Paul Graham
98/ When you’re in crisis, find your OAR. Overcorrect, action, retreat. Overcorrect, do more than you think you need to. For instance, lay off more than you think you need to. Actions can’t only be with words. Words are cheap after all. And retreat, know when it’s time to take a step back. “Sometimes you just have to do your time in the barrel. When you’re in the barrel, you stay in the barrel. And then you slowly come out of it.” – Nairi Hourdajian
99/ “A half measure is usually something a management team lands on because it’s easy. If a decision is easy, it’s probably a half measure. If it’s hard, if it’s really damn hard… if it’s controversial, you’re probably doing enough of it. The other thing is a half measure often doesn’t have an end result or goal in mind. If you have a really specific goal, and implementing that goal is difficult, that’s probably doing your job. That’s probably what’s necessary.” – Tom Loverro
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Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
This past Wednesday, I was having lunch with an artist-turned-VC. And as you might imagine, we had to cover every topic at the intersection of art and startup investing. But of all the ground we covered, one stood out — content creation.
She’s on the Gram, LinkedIn, and everything in between. (Although surprisingly not on Twitter.) But to help her focus, she uninstalls those apps on her phone. Otherwise, she says she’ll end up “doomscrolling.” I get it. In fact, many of my friends and colleagues have shared similar things as well. But…
I’m weird. At least among my friend group, I’m really weird. I’m terrible at social media. I’m an 80-year old stuck in a 27-year old body. At least on the social media front. I find it so hard to keep my attention on social. In fact, I schedule ten minutes three times a week to hold myself accountable to be on LinkedIn and Twitter.
So, when it came to sharing my thoughts and learnings publicly, it was a pretty easy decision. Of course, I eventually came to self-rationalize it as the ability to own my own piece of virtual real estate, but there are three more reasons I chose blogging rather than tweeting or social posting.
1. I write to think
I’ve written about this before so I won’t elaborate in length on my own rationale here, but share a few examples of others also holding it in high regard.
There’s only so much you can flush out in just 280 characters, or over any short post. And while some of my thoughts fully flushed out may only be that long or less, not having that restriction gives me peace of mind to not hold back.
One of my favorite George Orwell lines happens to be: “If people cannot write well, they cannot think well. And if they cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them.”
On that same wavelength on writing, Jeff Bezos makes Amazon execs write six-page memos. In most companies, team members often resort to PowerPoint presentations. Take anywhere between five and ten slides. Maybe less, maybe more. It’s much less thought out than a six-page dissertation. As Bezos says, “The reason writing a ‘good’ four page memo is harder than ‘writing’ a 20-page PowerPoint is because the narrative structure of a good memo forces better thought and better understanding of what’s more important than what.”
Equally so, it’s the same reason the best investors write memos for their investment decisions. My favorite public ones are Bessemer’s, which encapsulates much of their thinking at the time in amber. Turner Novak also turned his ability to write great memos to eventually raising his fund, Banana Capital. And the great Brian Rumao writes memos not just pre-investment, but also in his post-mortems where he gathers his learnings.
While I won’t go as far as to comparing myself to the afore-mentioned, I do find great pleasure and great learning from putting words on paper.
2. Longer feedback loop
My writing is more often a form of self-expression, self-curiosity, and self-discovery. So, unlike a product manager or founder who’s relentlessly testing and iterating on feedback, I enjoy longer feedback loops. I may start another content engine at some point that is for a particular audience, focused on feedback and iteration. But this humble piece of virtual estate will stay me. With no algorithm conditioning my attention span and yearn for external validation. That’s not to say I won’t ever (or have not ever) written things that you my awesome readers want, but it is only at the intersection of what you want and the what I enjoy writing about and asking others about that mint content here.
I also spend a lot of time thinking about audience capture, a term Gurwinder brought to my attention in an essay he wrote about Nikocado Avocado, which I also touched on in an essay I wrote near the end of last year.
I’m reminded by something Gurwinderwrote a few months ago about the perils of audience capture. In it, he shares the story of Nikocado Avocado, who lost himself to his audience, in a section of that essay he calls: The Man Who Ate Himself. He also shares one line that I find quite profound:
“We often talk of ‘captive audiences,’ regarding the performer as hypnotizing their viewers. But just as often, it’s the viewers hypnotizing the performer. This disease, of which Perry is but one victim of many, is known as audience capture, and it’s essential to understanding influencers in particular and the online ecosystem in general.”
3. The impermanence of social media
Most things on social media are ephemeral in nature. It’s designed to capture the moment, but not chronicle the moments. On Twitter, you can only pin one tweet. On Instagram, you can pin three. And on LinkedIn, only three are visible on the featured carousel, and include, five max before it takes you down another layer of friction to discover more.
There’s a level of impermanence which makes thoughts feel whimsical rather than evergreen. To use a phrase I recently heard Tim Ferriss use, the “durability of the signal seems to wane so quickly.” And that made my thoughts feel cheap.
That’s not to say every post I write has their weight in gold, but the searchability and the evergreen nature of my favorite blogposts (saved in my “About” tab) are the reasons I keep most of my thoughts here.
#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.
Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!
The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.
“Two of our biggest clients pulled the rug on us. They just cut their budgets, and can’t pay us anymore.”
“My co-founder had to leave. His wife just lost her job, and he needs to find a stable job to support the family.”
“I don’t think we’ll make it, David. How do we break it to our team?”
It was June 2020. The above were three of a dozen or so calls I had with founders so far who couldn’t make it through the pandemic. But most of the founders who called me weren’t looking for any solutions. In fact, half of them had already decided on their ultimatum before calling me. I could hear the pain in their voices over the phone. Yes, we called on the phone. Neither them nor I had the luxury of beautifying or blurring our backgrounds on Zoom or to try to look presentable. The only thing we had between us was the raw reality of the world.
Those conversations inspired me to compile a list of hard-won insights and advice from some of the best at their craft. A Rolodex of tactical and contrarian insights that a founder can pull from any time, so that you are well-equipped for times in the startup journey in which you’ll need them. I don’t know when you will, or even if you will, but I know someone will. Even if that someone is just myself.
Below are bits and pieces of insights that I’ve selectively collected over several months that might prove useful for founders. As time went on, I found myself to be more and more selective with the advice I add on to this list, as a function of my own growth as well as the industry’s growth.
I also often find myself wasting many a calorie in starting from a simple idea and extrapolating into something more nuanced. And while many ideas deserve the nuance I give them, if not more, some of the most important lessons in life are simple in nature. The 99 soundbites below cover everything, in no particular order other than categorical resonance, including:
Some might be more contrarian than others. You might not use every single piece of advice now or for your current business or ever. After all, they’re 100% unsolicited. At the end of the day, all advice is autobiographical. Nevertheless, I imagine they’ll be useful tools in your toolkit to help you grow over the course of your career, as they have with mine.
Oh, why 99 tips, and not 100? Things that end in 9 feel like a bargain, whereas things that end in 0 feel like a luxury. We can thank left-digit bias for that. Dammit, if you count this tip, that’s 100!
To preface, none of this is legal investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Please consult your own adviser before making any investments.
On fundraising…
1/ Some useful benchmarks and goals for stages of funding:
<$1M: pre-seed
Find what PMF looks like and how to measure it
$1-5M: seed
$2-4M – you found PMF already and you’re gearing up to scale
$5M – you’re ready for the A
$5-20: Series A *timestamped mid-2021, your mileage may vary in different fundraising climates
2/ If you’re a hotly growing startup, time to term sheet is on the magnitude of a couple of weeks. If not, you’re looking at months*. Prepare your fundraising schedule accordingly. *timestamped mid-2021, your mileage may vary in different fundraising climates
3/ On startup accelerators… If you’re a first-time founder, go for the knowledge and peer and tactical mentorship. If you’re a second- or third-time founder, go for the network and distribution.
4/ Legal fees are often borne by founders in the first priced round. And are usually $2-5K at the seed stage. $10-20K at the A. Investor council fee is $25-50K. So by the A, may come out to a $75-100K cost for founders.
5/ If you’re raising from VCs with large funds (i.e. $100M+), don’t have an exit slide. It may seem counterintuitive, but by having one, you’ve capped your exit value. Most early stage investors want to see 50-100x returns, to return the fund. And if their expected upside isn’t big enough, it won’t warrant the amount of risk they’re going to take to make back the fund. With angels or VCs with sub-$20M funds, it doesn’t matter as much.
6/ “Stop taking fundraising advice from VCs*. Would you take dating advice from a super model? In both cases, they’re working with an embarrassment of riches and are poor predictors of their own future behaviors. Advice from VCs is based on what they think they want versus what they want.” – Taylor Margot, founder of Keys *Footnote: Unless they’ve been through the fundraising process – either for their fund or previous startup.
7/ These days, it’s incredibly popular for founders to set up data rooms for their investors. What are data rooms? A central hub of a startup’s critical materials for investors when they do due diligence. Keep it on a Google Drive, Dropbox, Docsend, or Notion. Usually for startups that have some traction and early numbers, but what goes in a pre-seed one, pre-revenue, or even pre-product?
Pitch deck + appendix slides
Current round investment docs
Use of funds
Current and proforma cap table
Pilot usage data, if any
References + links to everyone’s LinkedIn:
Key members of management
1-2 customers, if any
1-2 investors, if any
Financials: annual + YTD P&L + projections
Slightly controversial on projections. Some investors want to see how founders think about the long term, plus runway after capital injection. Some investors don’t care since it’s all guesswork. Rule of thumb at pre-seed is don’t go any further than 2-3 years.
List of all FAQ investor questions throughout the fundraising process
Press, if any
Legal stuff: Patents, trademarks, IP assignments, articles of incorporation
8/ If you’re a pre-seed, pre-revenue, or even pre-product, you don’t need all of the above points in tip #7. Just stick to pitch deck/appendix, investment docs, use of funds, and current/proforma cap table.
9/ Investors invest in lines not dots. Start “fundraising”, aka building relationships, early with investors even before you need to fundraise. Meet 1-2 investors every week. Touch base with who would be the “best dollars on your cap table” every quarter. With their permission, get them on your monthly investor update. So that you can raise capital without having to send that pitch deck.
10/ Don’t take more money than you actually need when fundraising. While it’s sexy to take the $6M round on $30M valuation pre-product and will guarantee you a fresh spot on TechCrunch and Forbes, your future self will thank you for not taking those terms to maintain control and governance and preserve your mental sanity. Too many cooks in the kitchen too early on can be distracting. And taking on higher valuations comes with increased expectations.
11/ If you’re getting inbound financing, aka investor is reaching out to you, decide between two paths: (a) ignore, or (b) engage. If you choose the first path (a), when you ignore one, get comfortable ignoring them all – with very few exceptions i.e. your dream investors, which should be a very short list. Capital is a commodity. Your biggest strength is your focus on actually building your business. For undifferentiated VCs, understand speed is their competitive advantage. Fundraising at that point, for you the founder, is a distraction. If you choose (b) engage, set up the process. As you get inbound, go outbound. Build a market of options to choose from. Inspired by Phin Barnes.
12/ If you haven’t chatted with an investor in a while (>3 months), remind them why they (should) love you. Here’s a framework I like: “Hi, it’s been a minute. The last time we chatted about Y. And you suggested Z. Here’s what I’ve done about Z since the last time we chatted.“
13/ If you have a business everyone agrees on, you don’t have a venture-backable business. Alphas are low in perfect competition and businesses that are common sense. You’re going to generate a low 2-5x return on their capital, depending on how obvious your idea is.
Strive for disagreement. Be contrarian. Don’t be afraid to disagree in your pitch. Trying to be a people pleaser won’t get you far. If your investor disagrees with your insight, either you didn’t explain it well or you just don’t need them on your cap table. If the former, go through the 7 year old test. Are you able to explain your idea to a 7-year old? If that 3rd grader does understand, and you have sound logic to get to the insight, and your investor still disagrees, you need to find someone who agrees with strategic direction forward.
It’s not worth your time trying to convince a now-and-future naysayer on a future they don’t believe in. Myself included. There will be some ideas that just don’t make sense to me. While part of it might be ’cause of poor explanation/communication, the other part is I’m just not your guy. And that’s okay.
14/ If a VC asks your earlier investors to give up their pro-rata, and forces you to pick between your earlier investors and that VC, it’s a telltale sign of an unhealthy relationship. If they’re willing to screw your earlier investors over, they’ll have no problem screwing you over if things go south. To analogize, it’s the same as if the person you’re dating asks you to pick between your parents who raised you and them. If they have to force a choice out of you, you’re heading into a toxic relationship where they think they should be the center of the universe.
15/ You can really turn some heads if your pitch deck doesn’t have the same copy/paste answers as every other founder out there. Seems obvious, but this notion becomes especially tested on two particular slides: the go-to-market (GTM) and the competitorslides.
16/ If you want to be memorable, teach your investor something they didn’t know before. To be memorable means you’re likely to get that second meeting.
17/ Focus on answering just one question in your pitch meeting with an investor. That question is dependent on the plausibility of your idea. If your idea is plausible, meaning most people would agree that this should exist in the market, answer “why this.” If your idea is possible, meaning your idea makes sense but there’s not a clear reason for why the market would want it, answer “why now.” If your idea is preposterous, answer “why you.” Why you is not about your X years of experience. It’s about what unique, contrarian insight you developed that is backed by sound logic. That even if the insight is crazy at first glance, it makes sense if you dive deeper. Inspired by Mike Maples Jr.
18/ Beware of investor veto rights in term sheets. Especially around future financing. The verbage won’t say “veto rights,” but rather “no creation of a new series of stock without our approval” or “no amendments to the certificate of incorporation without our approval.”
19/ 99% of syndicate LPs like to be passive capital, since they’re investing 50 other syndicates at the same time. Don’t expect much help or value add from them. But if they’re also a downstream capital allocator, you can leverage that relationship when you go to them for bigger checks in future rounds.
20/ Don’t count on soft commitments. “We will invest in you if X happens.” Soft commitments are easy to make, and don’t require much conviction. X usually hinges on a lead investor or $Y already invested in the startup. Investors who give soft commits are not looking for signal in your business but signal via action from other investors. Effectively, meaning they don’t believe in you, but they will believe in smart people who believe in you.
21/ Just because they’re an A-lister doesn’t mean they’ll bring their A-game. Really get to know your investor beforehand.
22/ If you’re an outsider of the VC world, first step is to accept you are one and that you will have to work much harder to be recognized. “You will be work for investors. The data doesn’t support investing in you. The game is not fair at all. It will be a struggle.” Inspired by Mat Sherman.
23/ Mixing your advisors and investors in the same slide is a red flag for potential investors, unless your advisors also invested. Why? It gives off the impression that you’re hiding things. If the basis of an investment is a 10-year marriage, doubt is the number one killer of potential investor interest.
24/ Too many advisors is also a red flag. “Official” and “unofficial“. Too many distractions. Advisors almost always invest. If they don’t, that’s signaling to say you need their help, but they don’t believe in you enough to invest.
25/ There are also some investors don’t care about your advisors at all, at least on the pitch deck. The pitch deck should be your opportunity to showcase the team who is bleeding and sweating for you. Most advisors just don’t go that far for you. The addendum would be that technical advisors are worth having on there, if you have a deeply technical product.
26/ “Find an investor’s Calendly URL by trying their Twitter handle, and just book a meeting. With so many investor meetings, it’s easy to forget you never scheduled it. Just happened to me and it was both frightening and hilarious.” – Lenny Rachitsky
27/ If you want money, ask for advice. If you want advice, ask for money.
28/ Don’t waste your energy trying to convince investors who strongly disagree to jump onboard. Your time is better spent finding investors who can already see the viability of your vision.
29/ Higher valuations mean greater expectations. You might want to raise for a longer runway, and I’ve seen pitches as great as 36 months of runway, but most investors are still evaluating you on a 12-month runway upon financing round. Can you reach your next milestones (i.e. 10x your KPIs) in a year from now? Higher valuations mean your investor thinks you are more likely and can more quickly capture your TAM at scale than your peers.
30/ As founder, you only need to be good at 3 things: raise money, make money, and hire people to make money. Every investor, when going back to the fundamentals, will evaluate you on these 3 things.
31/ A good distribution of your company’s early angel investors include:
32/ “All investor questions are bad. They are a tell tale sign of objections politely withheld until you are done talking.” Defuse critical questions by incorporating their respective answers into the pitch. For instance, if the question that’ll come up is “How do you think about your competition?”, include a slide that says “We know this is a competitive space, and here’s why we’re doing what we’re doing.” Inspired by Siqi Chen.
33/ “‘Strategics’ (aka non-VCs) may care less about ROI, and more about staying close for competitive intel and downstream optionality.” – Brian Rumao
On managing team/culture…
34/ Align your vacation with when the core team takes their vacation. (i.e. if you’re a product-led team, take your vacations when your engineers and product teams go on vacation)
35/ Please pay yourself as a founder. Some useful founder salary benchmarks:
Seed stage – lowest paid employee
Series A or when you find product-market fit (PMF) – lowest paid engineer
When you hit scale – mid-level engineer
When you’ve reached market dominance – market rate pay for CEOs
If growth slows or stops or hard times hit – cut back to previous compensation, until you grow again
36/ Measure twice, cut once. If you’re going to lay people off, do it once. Lay more people than you think you need to, so you don’t have to do it again. Keep expectations real and don’t leave unnecessary anxiety on the table for those that still work for you.
One of my favorite examples is that, at the start of the pandemic, Alinea, one of the most recognizable names in the culinary business, furloughed every full-time employee, giving them $1000 and paid for 49% of their benefits and health care, eliminated the salaries of owners completely, and reduced the business team and management’s salary by 35%. Not only that, they emailed all their furloughed employees to level expectations and to understand the why. In normal situations, the law states that furloughed employees shouldn’t have access to their work emails, but Nick said “I will break the law on that because this is the pandemic.” For more context, highly recommend checking out Nick’s Medium post and his Eaterinterview, time-stamped at the start of the pandemic.
37/ Take mental health breaks. I’ve met more venture-backed founders who regretted not taking mental health breaks than those who regretted taking them.
38/ Build honesty into your culture, not transparency. And do not conflate the two. Take, for example, you are going through M&A talks with one of the FAAMGs. If you optimize for transparency, this gets a lot of hype among your team members. But let’s say the deal falls through. Your team will be devastated and potentially lose confidence in the business, which can have second-order consequences, like them finding new opportunities or trying to sell their shares on the secondary market. I’ve quoted mmhmm‘s Phil Libinbefore, when he said, “I think the most important job of a CEO is to isolate the rest of the company from fluctuations of the hype cycle because the hype cycle will destroy a company.” Very similarly, full transparency sounds great in theory but will often distract your team from focusing on their priorities.
39/ When in doubt, default to Bezos’ two-pizza rule. Every project/team should be fed by at most two pizzas. In the words of David Sacks, even “the absolute biggest strategic priority could [only] get 10 engineers for 10 weeks.” Don’t overcomplicate and over-bureaucratize things.
40/ Perfect is the enemy of good. Have a “ship-it” mentality. Give yourself an 10-20% margin of error. Equally so, give your team members that same margin so that they’re not scared of making mistakes. It’s less important that mistakes happen, and they will, but more important how you deal with it.
41/ James Currier has a great list of ways to compensate your team and/or community.
Value of using the product (e.g. utility, status, cheaper prices, fun, etc)
Cash (e.g. USD, EUR)
Equity shares (traditional)
Discounted fees
Premier placement and traffic/attention
Status symbols
Early access
Some voting and/or decision making, ability to edit/change
Premier software features
Membership to a valuable clique of other nodes
Real world perks like dinner/tickets to the ball game
Belief in the mission (right-brain, intrinsic)
Commitment to a set of human relationships (right-brain, intrinsic)
Tokens (fungible)
Non-Fungible Tokens
42/ Have Happy Hour Mondays, not on Thursdays and Fridays. Give your team members something to look forward to on Mondays.
43/ “Outliers create bad mental models for founders.” – Founder Collective
44/ Once you break past product-market fit and hit scale, you have to start thinking about your second act. It’s about resource allocation. The most common playbook for resource allocation is to spend 70% of your resources on your core business, 20% on business expansion, and 10% on venture bets.
45/ The top three loads that a founder needs to double down or back on when hitting scale. “You have to stop being an individual contributor (IC). Stop being a VP. And you gotta hire great [VPs]. The sign of a great VP… is that you look forward to your 1:1 each week. And that plus some informal conversations are enough. Otherwise you’re micromanaging.” – Jason Lemkin.
46/ If you could write a function to mathematically approximate the probability of success of any given person on your team, what would be the coefficients? What are the parameters of that function? Inspired by Dharmesh Shah.
47/ The team you build is the company you build. And not, the plan you build is the company you build. – Vinod Khosla.
48/ “The output of an organization is equal to the vector sum of its individuals. A vector sum has both a magnitude and a direction. You can hire individuals with great magnitude, but unless they were all pointed in the same direction, you’re not going to get the best output of the organization.” – Pat Grady summarizing a lesson he learned from Elon Musk.
49/ “The founder’s job is to make the receptionist rich.” – Doug Leone
50/ “The amount of progress that we make is directly proportional to the number of hard conversations that we’re willing to have.” – Mark Zuckerberg quoting Sheryl Sandberg.
52/ Hire for expertise, not experience. The best candidates talk about what they can do, rather than what they did.
53/ A great early-stage VP Sales focuses on how fast they can close qualified leads, not pipeline. Also, great at hiring SDRs. It’s a headcount business.
54/ A great early-stage VP Marketing focuses on demand gen and not product or corporate marketing.
55/ Kevin Scott, now CTO of Microsoft, would ask in candidate interviews: “What do you want your next job to be after this company?” Most of your team members realistically won’t stick with the same company forever. This is even more true as you scale to 20, then 50, then 100 team members and so on. But the best way to empower them to do good work is to be champions of their career. Help them level up. Help them achieve their dreams, and in turn, they will help you achieve yours.
56/ When you’re looking to hire people who scale, most founders understand that a candidate’s experience is only a proxy for success in the role. Instead, ask: “How many times have you had to change yourself in order to be successful?” Someone who is used to growing and changing according to their aspirations and the JD are more likely to be successful at a startup than their counterparts. Inspired by Pedro Franceschi, founder of Brex.
57/ The best leading indicator of a top performing manager is their ability to attract talent – both externally and internally. “The ability to attract talent, not just externally, but also internally where you’ve created a reputation where product leaders are excited to work not just with you, but under you.” Inspired by Hareem Mannan.
58/ When you’re hiring your first salespeople, hire in pairs. “If you hire just one salesperson and they can’t sell your product, you’re in trouble. Why? You don’t know if the problem is the person or the product. Hire two, and you have a point of comparison.” Inspired by Ryan Breslow.
59/ The longer you have no team members from underestimated and underrepresented backgrounds and demographics, the harder it is to recruit your first.
On governance…
60/ You don’t really need a board until you raise the A. On average, 3 members – 2 common shareholders, 1 preferred. The latter is someone who can represent the investors’ interests. When you get to 5 board seats (around the B or C), on average, 3 common, 1 preferred, and 1 independent.
61/ As you set up your corporate board of directors, set up your personal board of directors as well. People who care about you, just you and your personal growth and mental state. Folks that will be on your speed dial. You’ll thank yourself later.
62/ You can’t fire your investor, but investors can fire you, the founders. That’s why it’s just as important, if not more important, for founders to diligence their investors as investors do to founders. Why for founders? To see if there’s founder-investor fit. The best way is to talk to the VC’s or angel’s portfolio founders – both current and past. Most importantly, to talk to the founders in their past portfolio whose businesses didn’t work out. Many investors will be on your side, until they’re not. Find out early who has a track record for being in for the long haul.
63/ Echoing the previous point, all your enemies should be outside your four walls, and ideally very few resources, if at all, should be spent fighting battles inside your walls.
64/ Standard advisor equity is 0.25-1%. They typically have a 3-month cliff on vesting. Founder Institute has an amazing founder/advisor template that would be useful for bringing on early advisors. You can also calculate advisor equity as a function of:
(their hourly rate*) x (expected hours/wk of commitment) / (40 hours) x (length of advisorship**) / (last company valuation) *based on what you believe their salary would be **typically 1-2 years
65/ Have your asks for your monthly investor updates at the top of each email. Make it easy for them to help you. Investors get hundreds every month – from inside and outside their portfolio. I get ~40-50 every month, and I’m not even a big wig. Make it easy for investors to help you.
66/ Monthly/quarterly investor updates should include, and probably in the below order:
Your ask
Brief summary of what you do
Key metrics, cash flow, revenue
Key hires
New product features/offerings (if applicable)
67/ In his book The Messy Middle, Scott Belsky quotes Hunter Walk of Homebrew saying, “Never follow your investor’s advice and you might fail. Always follow your investor’s advice and you’ll definitely fail.”
68/ While you’re probably not going to bring on an independent board member until at or after your A-round, since they’re typically hard to find, once you do, offer them equity equivalent to a director or VP level, vested over two to three years (rather than four). Independent board members are a great source for diversity, and having shorter schedules, possibly with accelerated vesting schedules on “single trigger”, will keep the board fresh. Inspired by Seth Levine.
69/ “A company’s success makes a VC’s reputation; a VC’s success does not make a company’s reputation. In other words to take a concrete example, Google is a great company. Google is not a great company because Sequoia invested in them. Sequoia is a great venture firm because they invested in Google.” – Ashmeet Sidana. This seems like obvious advice, but you have no idea how many founders I’ve met started off incredible, then relied on their VC’s brand to carry them the rest of the way. Don’t rely solely on your investors for your own success.
70/ “Invest in relationships. Hollywood idolizes board meetings as the place where crucial decisions are made. The truth is the best ideas, collaboration, and feedback happen outside the boardroom in informal 1:1 meetings.” – Reid Hoffman
71/ When your company gets to the pre-IPO stage or late growth stages, if you, as the founding CEO, are fully vested and have less than 10% ownership in your own company, it’s completely fine to re-up and ask your board for another 5% over 5 years. No cliffs, vesting starts from the first month. Inspired by Jason Calacanis.
72/ A great independent board member usually takes about 6-9 months of recruiting and coffee chats. You should start recruiting for one as early as right after A-round closes. In terms of compensation, a great board member should get the same amount of equity as a director of engineering at your current stage of the company, with immediate monthly vesting and no cliff. Inspired by Delian Asparouhov.
73/ If your cap table doesn’t have shareholders with equity that is differentiated (i.e. everyone owns the same size of a slice of the pie), then their value to the company won’t be differentiated. No one will feel responsible for doing more for the business. And everyone does as much as the lowest common denominator. It becomes a “I only have to do as much as [lowest performer] is doing. Or else it won’t be fair.”
74/ “If you ‘protect’ your investor updates with logins or pins, you will also protect them from actually being read.” – Paul Graham
On building communities…
75/ Every great community has value and values. Value, what are members getting out of being a part of the community. Values, a strict code of conduct – explicit and/or implicit, that every member follows to uphold the quality of the community.
76/ Build for good actors, rather than hedge against the bad actors. I love Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales‘ steak knives analogy. Imagine you’re designing a restaurant that serves steak. Subsequently, you’re going to be giving everyone steak knives. There’s always the possibility that people with knives will stab each other, but you won’t lock everyone in cages to hedge against that possibility at your restaurant. It’s actually rather rare for something like that to happen, and we have various institutions to deal with that problem. It’s not perfect, but most people would agree that they wouldn’t want to live in a cage. As Jimmy shares, “I just think, too often, if you design for the worst people, then you’re failing design for good people.”
77/ If you’re a consumer product, Twitter memes may be the new key to a great GTM (go-to-market) strategy. (e.g. Party Round, gm). As a bonus, a great way to get the attention of VCs. There’s a pretty strong correlation between Twitter memes and getting venture funding. Community, check. Brand, check. Retention and engagement, check.
On pricing…
78/ For B2B SaaS, do annual auto-price increases. Aim for 10% every year. Why?
Customers will try to negotiate for earlier renewal, longer contract periods.
When you waive the price increases, customers feel like they’re winning.
You can upsell them more easily to more features.
79/ If you’re a SaaS product, you shouldn’t charge per seat. Focus on charging based on your outcome-based value metric (# customers, # views per video), rather than your process-based value metric (e.g. per user, per time spent). If you charge per seat, aka a process-based value metric, everything works out if your customer is growing. But incentives are misaligned when your customer isn’t. After all, more users using your product makes you more sticky, so give unlimited seats and upsell based on product upgrades.
80/ Charge consumers and SMBs monthly. And enterprises annually. The former will hesitate on larger bills and on their own long-term commitment. The latter doesn’t want to go back to procurement every month to get an invoice approved. Equally so, the latter likes to negotiate for longer contracts in exchange for discounts. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
On product/strategy…
81/ Having a launch event, like Twitchcon, Dreamforce, Twilio’s Signal, or even Descript’s seasonal launch events, aligns both your customers and team on the same calendar. Inspired by David Sacks’ Cadence. For customers, this generates hype and expectation for the product. For your team, this also sets:
Product discipline, through priorities, where company leaders have to think months in advance for, and
Expectations and motivates team members to help showcase a new product.
82/ Startups often die by indigestion, not starvation. Exercise extreme focus in your early days, rather than offering different product lines and features.
83/ “Epic startups have magic.” Users intuitively understand what your product does and are begging you to give it to them. If you don’t have magic yet, focus on defining – quantitatively and qualitatively – what your product’s magic is. Ideally, 80% of people who experience the magic take the next step (i.e. signup, free trial, download, etc.). Inspired by John Danner.
84/ To find product-market fit (PMF), ask your customers: “How would you feel if you could no longer use our product?” Users would have three choices: “Very disappointed”, “Somewhat disappointed”, and “Not disappointed”. If 40% or more of the users say “very disappointed”, then you’ve got your PMF. Inspired by Rahul Vohra.
85/ For any venture-backed startup founder, complacency is cancer. As Ben Horowitz would put it, you’re fighting in wartime. You don’t have the luxury to act as if you’re in peacetime. As Reid Hoffman once said, “an entrepreneur is someone who will jump off a cliff and assemble an airplane on the way down.”
86/ Good founders are great product builders. Great founders are great company builders.
87/ To reach true scale as an enterprise, very few companies do so with only one product. Start thinking about your second product early, but will most likely not be executed on until $10-20M ARR. Inspired by Harry Stebbings.
88/ Build an MVT, not MVP. “An MVP is a basic early version of a product that looks and feels like a simplified version of the eventual vision. An MVT, on the other hand, does not attempt to look like the eventual product. It’s rather a specific test of an assumption that must be true for the business to succeed.” – Gagan Biyani
89/ Focus on habit formation. “Habit formation requires recurring organic exposure on other networks. Said another way: after people install your app, they need to see your content elsewhere to remind them that your app exists.” And “If you can’t use your app from the toilet or while distracted—like driving—your users will have few opportunities to form a habit.” Inspired by Nikita Bier.
90/ “Great products take off by targeting a specific life inflection point, when the urgency to solve a problem is most acute.” – Nikita Bier. Inflection points include going to college, getting one’s first job, buying their first car or home, getting married, and so on.
91/ You’re going to pivot. So instead of being married to the solution or product, marry yourself to the problem. As Mike Maples Jr. once said about Floodgates portfolio, “90% of our exit profits have come from pivots.”
92/ Retention falls when expectation don’t meet reality. So, either fix the marketing/positioning of the product or change the product. The former is easier to change than the latter.
93/ To better visualize growth of the business, build a state machine – a graph that captures every living person on Earth and how they interact with your product. The entire world’s population should fall into one of five states: people who never used your product, first time users, inactive users, low value users, and high value users. And every process in your business is governed by the flow from one state to another.
For example, when first time users become inactive users, those are bounce rates, and your goal is to reduce churn before you focus on sales and marketing (when people who never used your product become first time users). When low value users become high value users, those are upgrades, which improve your net retention. Phil Libin took an hour to break down the state machine, which is probably one of the best videos for founders building for product-market fit and how to plan for growth that I’ve ever seen. It’s silly of me to think I can boil it down to a few words.
94/ When a customer cancels their subscription, it’s either your fault or no one’s fault. If they cancel, it is either because of the economy now or you oversold and underdelivered. So, make the cancellation (or downgrading) process easy and as positive as the onboarding. If so, maybe they’ll come back. Maybe they’ll refer a friend. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
On market insight and competitive analysis…
95/ To find your market, ask potential customers: “How would you feel if you could no longer use [major player]’s product?” Again, with the same three choices: “Very disappointed”, “Somewhat disappointed”, and “Not disappointed”. If 40% or more of your potential customers say “not disappointed”, you might have a space worth doubling down on.
96/ Have a contrarian point of view. Traits of a top-tier contrarian view:
People can disagree with it, like the thesis of a persuasive essay. It’s debatable.
Something you truly believe and can advocate for. Before future investors, customers, and team members do, you have to have personal conviction in it. And you have to believe people will be better off because of it.
It’s unique to you. Something you’ve earned through going through the idea maze. A culmination of your experiences, skills, personality, instincts, intuition, and scar tissue.
Not controversial for the sake of it. Don’t just try to stir the pot for the sake of doing so.
It teaches your audience something – a new perspective. Akin to an “A-ha!” moment for them.
Backed by evidence. Not necessarily a universal truth, but your POV should be defensible.
It’s iterative. Be willing to change your mind when the facts change.
97/ Falling in love with the problem is more powerful than falling in love with the solution.
98/ If you’re in enterprise or SaaS, you can check in on a competitor’s growth plan by searching LinkedIn to see how many sales reps they have + are hiring, multiply by $500K, and that’s how much in bookings they plan to add this year. Multiply by $250K if the target market is SMB. Inspired by Jason Lemkin.
99/ Failures by your perceived competitors may adversely impact your company. Inspired by Opendoor’s 10-K (page 15).
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Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal or investment advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.
I was introduced to a founder of an e-commerce marketplace recently trying to figure out what product-market fit looks like. Specifically what might be some early tells of PMF. And I told him, “If your users are sticking around long enough to try to game your system, you have something they want. While it might not be in the most efficient format, you’re close to PMF. Subsequently, solving that frictional point that users are trying to ‘hack’ will delight them.”
Last year, I wrote that one of the tells of a great unicorn idea is frustration with the status quo. And the lagging indicators of frustration are complaints, but even better, “hacks”. Life hacks. Career hacks. Cold email hacks. Any time a forum or community comes together to share best practices is a potential market opportunity. As Jeff Bezos once said, “Your margin is my opportunity.”
Similarly, if some of your users converge around circumventing your platform, they’re hacking their way to find a better solution. But the fact they’re sticking around on your platform means you have something they want. And while it could be more elegant, you’ve solved the rocks of the “rocks, sand, and water” framework. What’s left are the “sand” and the “water”. And they come disguised as a user hack.
Sarah Tavel of Benchmark once wrote: “You must create an offering that is so compelling, it stands by itself in the consumer’s mind.” Solving all the frictional points in the user journey will get you to that compelling offering – a lovable product.
A reader reached out to me last year and said, “Thank you… [But] you have no idea how long I spend reading your blogposts with a dictionary next to me.” While it wasn’t necessarily a hack, to know there was a reader out there willing to weather through my idiosyncratic vocabulary in my earlier essays meant a million to me. But at the same time, it was a sign I was too caught up in my own wordsmithing. So, I dialed it back. While there will still be some esoteric jargon from time to time, I try to make my writing more relatable when editing. And to that reader… if you’re still reading this essay, thank you.
Back in 2007, Marc Andreessenwrote: “The market pulls product out of the startup.” In this case, that pull becomes a race between you and your users’ frustration. Can you release an update that addresses your users’ pain point before they become so frustrated they pack up and go? Either to build their own version or try a competitor’s.
I love Max Nussenbaum of On Deck’s analogy here. “If the market is indeed pulling the product out of you, you sometimes feel less like a creator and more like a mere conduit.” You, as the team behind the product, are a conduit to satisfying your users’ needs. As Mike Maples Jr.says, “Getting storytelling right means the founder is the mentor of the story (ie Yoda), rather than the hero (ie Luke.).” Your customers are the heroes of the story. Of their story. And your story. How they spend their time should offer you brilliant product insights.
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I’ve been this self-proclaimed “few screws loose” for a while. Rationally, what I do, it doesn’t always make sense. But in their post-mortems, my adventures often turn out to be invaluable lessons of growth. The month of March was no exception.
It all started with someone who reached out to tell me I didn’t know what I was talking about. And subsequently, that I should stop writing. It certainly wasn’t the first, but definitely the most direct one to date. I saw where he was coming from. I’d never personally taken an idea from inception to scale, much less exit. On the venture side, I’m a scout, and well that means, I don’t personally invest in many deals, if at all.
At the same time, it’s not like I didn’t expect such a comment. As a content creator, even an amateur one, I’m putting myself out there. And in doing so, I’m opening myself up to criticism. This, well, just the first of many more to come. In fact, I’ve alluded to it before. As Jeff Bezos once said, “If you can’t tolerate critics, don’t do anything new or interesting.” Now before I make myself seem smarter than I actually am by appealing to authority, I’m not. Simply, I believe their few words profoundly summarize what might take me an essay to convey.
In writing weekly content, and subsequently, doing my homework to write the best I can on any given topic, I give off the illusion that I’m smarter than I actually am. And every once in a while, I fall victim to using esoteric phrases. Like I could say the same statement above as: I give off the illusion that I have a larger repository of information than I have. But I do so because sometimes I really, really like the phrasing I come up with or come across. It’s more of a personal fulfillment than a misleading façade.
Like I’ve mentionedbefore… I write to think. An unrefined concept that through the process of writing, I come to a more robust understanding. But let’s be honest, it’s not all up and to the right. It’s a rollercoaster. I love how Packy McCormick, who authors Not Boring, described his own writing process.
After all, mine doesn’t fall too far from the apple tree. But I digress. That one message led me down a path to jump on phone calls with other folks who found my content or myself to be disagreeable. Some more perverse and antagonistic than others. Five people total. Four who had just fallen on a series of unfortunate events. Two of which just wanted to be heard. The other two seeking advice and feedback. And last who seemed to find power through berating me for 20 straight minutes. One other who has yet to respond.
Why? I’ve known for a while that I’m terrible at having tough conversations. Some of my friends might know from personal experience. A number of other founders who’ve been on the receiving end of my inability to say “No”. Especially when I first began in venture.
I thought that maybe – just maybe – if I go to the more extreme end of the spectrum, I might get better at giving others the respect and time they deserve. While I’m not sure if the five conversations have helped me mature, they made me a better listener.
When two broke down during our short call, what they needed wasn’t advice or feedback or someone to tell them everything was going to be alright. They just wanted someone to listen. Just listen. Given my personality, I was constantly tempted to respond. To give advice. And to ease the “awkward silence.” But it wasn’t awkward at all. My inability to recognize the sanctity of silence made it awkward.
For the two other founders, they sought feedback since no investor they chatted with so far gave them any constructive ones. I couldn’t promise connections nor capital. All I could promise was my own radical candor. And they were free to do with it as they saw fit. So I spent 10-15 minutes with each, listening to their pitch. No questions in between. My thoughts only chronicled on a 5×8 notepad in front of me. And only after they’d concluded, I would share my thoughts.
The last one, frankly, there was nothing I could do or say that would have changed his mind. And rather than trying to, which would only reinforce his belief, the best I could do was stay silent and occasionally smile.
I’m reminded once again of a line someone I deeply respect once told me, “The quality of communication is measured by not how much comes out of your mouth, but by how much reaches the other person’s ear.” And another, “We have two ears and one mouth; we should use them in that proportion.”
And I am still working on it. I have a long road ahead, but I’m positive if I keep the above lessons in mind, I’ll go further faster.
#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.
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A number of founders ask me for fundraising advice. While they come in different magnitudes, one of the common themes is: “I’ve had many investor meetings, but I still can’t get a term sheet. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to do or to say to get a yes?”
To preface, I don’t have the one-size-fit-all solution. Neither do I think there is a one-size-fit-all solution. Each investor is looking for something different. And while theses often rhyme, the “A-ha!” moment for each investor is a culmination of their own professional and life experiences. This anecdote is, by no means, prescriptive, but another perspective that may help you when fundraising, if you’re not getting the results you want. This won’t help you cheat the system. If you still have a shoddy product or an unambitious team, you’re still probably not going to get any external capital.
One thing I learned when I was on the operating side of the table is: When you want money, ask for advice. When you want advice, ask for money. It’s, admittedly, a slightly roundabout way to get:
Investor interest,
And reference points for milestones to hit.
But it’s worked for me. Why? Because you’re fighting in a highly-competitive, heavily-saturated market of attention – investor attention. This method merely helps you increase the potential surface area of interaction and visibility, to give you time in front of an investor to prove yourself.
Investors are expected to jump into a long term marriage with founders, while, for the most part, only given a small cross-section in your founding journey to evaluate you. It’s as if you chose to marry someone for life you’ve only met 60-90 days ago. While angels and some people have the courage and the conviction to do that, most investors like to err on the side of caution. Contrary to popular belief, venture capitalists are extremely risk-averse. They look for risk-adjusted bets. And if you can prove to them – either through traction or an earned secret – that you’re not just a rounding error, you’ll make their lives a lot easier.
So, let me elaborate.
When you want money, ask for advice.
As you’re growing your business and you want to show you are, ask investors for advice. Tell them. “So I’ve been growing at X% MoM, and I’ve gotten to Y # of users. I’m thinking about pursuing this Z as my next priority. And this is how I plan to A/B test it. What do you think?”
And if you keep these investors in the loop the entire time and ask and follow-up on their advice, at some point, they’d think and ask, “Damn, this is an epic business. Will you just take my money?”
So, what are good numbers?
The Rule of 40 is a rough rule of thumb many investors use for consumer tech markets. Month-over-month growth rate plus profit should be greater than or equal to 40. So you can be growing 50% MoM, but burning money with -10% profit, aka costs are greater than your revenue. Or you can be growing 30% MoM, but gaining 10% profit every month. And if you’ve got 10s of 1000s of users, you’re on solid ground. Better yet, one of the biggest expenses is increasing server capacity costs.
For more reference points on ideal consumer startup numbers, check out this blog post I wrote last year.
For enterprise/B2B SaaS, somewhere along the lines of 10-15% MoM growth. With at least 1 key customer logo. And 5 publicly referenceable customers.
Of course, the Rule of 40 did not age well for certain industries in 2020.
When you want advice, ask for money.
When you ask for money most of the time, investors, partners, and potential customers will say no, especially if you’re super early on and don’t have a background or track record as an entrepreneur. So when they do say no, I like to ask them one of my favorite questions: “What do I need to bring you for you to unconditionally say yes?” Then, they’ll tell me what they want to see out of our product or our business. These, especially if they’re reinforced independently across multiple different individuals in your ecosystem, should be your North Star metrics. And when you do put their advice to action, be sure to follow up with the results to their implemented advice.
You either do what they recommended. And show them what happened. And what’s next.
Or you don’t do what they recommended. But show that you heavily considered their recommendation. What you did instead. Why you chose to do what you did instead. And what’s next.
To take it one step further, once I ask the above question to have a reference point for growth trajectory, I ask: “Who is the smartest person(s) known to achieve X (or in Y)?” with X being the answer you got via the previous question. And Y being the industry you’re tackling.
Then, go to that person or those people and say, “Hey Jennifer, [investor name] said if there’s one person I had to talk to about X, I have to talk to you.” Feel free to use my cold email “template” as reference, if you’re unsure of what else to say.
If you use this tactic again and again, eventually you’ll build a family of unofficial (maybe even official) mentors and advisors, even if you never explicitly call them that. Not necessarily asking for money all the time. But asking for money might help you ignite the spark for this positive feedback loop.
In closing
When I was on the operating side, a brilliant founder with 2 multi-million dollar exits once told me: “Always be selling. Always be fundraising. And always be hiring.”
I didn’t really get it then. In fact, I didn’t get it the entire time I was on the other side of the table. What do you mean “Always be fundraising”? Should I just be asking for money all the time? What about the business?
It wasn’t until I made my way into VC at SkyDeck that I realized the depth of his words. Keep people you eventually want to fundraise from and hire in the loop about what you’re building. Keep them excited. Build a relationship beyond something transactional. Build a friendship.
Jeff Bezos put it best when he said:
“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.
“At Amazon we like things to work in five to seven years. We’re willing to plant seeds, let them grow and we’re very stubborn. We say we’re stubborn on vision and flexible on details.”
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