Tag: idea maze

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How to Find Your Mentor

how to find your mentor, child

An old college friend reached out to me not too long ago and asked me if I had any tips to share on getting a mentor. And the first thing I responded with is: “Don’t ask people to be your mentor. In fact, don’t even mention the word mentorship.”

You see, mentorship is a loaded word. It comes with baggage. Centuries of it. Hell, millennia of it. And apparently, dating as far back as 3,000 years ago to Homer’s Odyssey. Mentorship comes with an expectation of commitment. While that amount of commitment differs per person, a mentorship ask from a stranger is an amorphous expectation of time and energy from a busy person who likely has a laundry list of other priorities. Without any precedence or context, it’s hard to make that decision with asymmetric information.

The best pairs of mentorship have always been a two-way street. It takes two to tango. If we were to take the equation of a line:

y = mx + b

… a mentee wants a mentor whose current b, or position and experience level in time, is greater than their own. A mentor wants a mentee whose m (rate of learning, iteration, and hustle) is as great or greater than their own. The bet is that at some point in the future, at least in my experience, mentors would like to learn from their mentees as well, and/or see it paid forward.

Yet, I see so many mentees out there who discount their own value in the relationship. One of my mentors shared with me a few years ago that the older you are, the younger your mentors should be. And I’ve carried that in my heart ever since. More recently, I found that line in the form of a tweet from Samir Kaji.

I can’t claim to have mentored tons of folks, but I also realize both from anecdotal experience and talking with my mentors that the best thing about mentorship is the feedback. That the mentors learn about the result of their advice as an opportunity to finetune their own learnings.

Take for example, my office hours. Of the hundred or so people I’ve met through open office hours, I’ve probably shared the same piece of advice at most five times. It gets even more interesting when you consider that the vast majority of people I’ve met via office hours come for fundraising advice. Somewhere in the ballpark of 80% of people. While there are similar thematic questions I ask people to consider, the best advice is tailored to every unique situation. That said, my advice, like any others’, starts as a product of my own anecdotal experience. A sample size of one. And as we learned in Stats 1 in high school or college, that’s a poor sample size. So, one of the best ways for me to refine my own learnings is either:

  1. Act on it again and again. But there are some things in life I can’t do again. For instance, high school or freshman year of college or my first job. Those are experiences entombed in amber that unless I had a time machine, they’re one and done.
  2. Learn how other people execute on that advice and what resulted of it.

One of the many joys of writing this blog is that every so often a kind reader reaches out to me and shares the results of them implementing the thoughts I’ve shared here. Then they let me know I’m either full of s**t or I drastically helped them grow. And I love both forms of feedback equally as much. After all, it’s the rate of compounded learning that helps me mature — even if it’s outside of my own anecdotal experience. Feedback and learning of others’ results gives me a sample size greater than one. The same is true for other mentors, advisors, and investors out there.

So, what does that mean tactically?

Start with the ask.

There’s a metaphorical saying in the world of venture that investors invest in lines, not dots. They want to see progression rather than stagnation. So in reaching out to anyone you’d want to learn from, don’t lead with “Can I have 30 minutes of your time?” Instead, lead with a question. Why are you reaching out? What question can only they answer?

So, that means, “should I get an MBA?” is not a good question to ask. It’s generic, doesn’t contextualize the question, and you can figure out how to do so on the internet. On the flip side, a better question would be: “I saw that you graduated from Wharton before breaking into VC. So I’m curious, did you always know you wanted to be in VC, or was that something you discovered in B-school? And what experiences did you gain in B-school that set you up for VC?”

Moreover, show you’ve spent time in the idea maze before proposing the question to the person you want to learn from. “I’ve read about X and Y, and have thought about or tried A and B already with these results. But the question still gnaws at me.”

Why does this contextualization matter? One, it gives that person context to better answer your question. Two, the last thing any person giving advice wants is for their advice to dissipate into the cosmos. For their advice to go to naught. And if you show that you’ve spend blood, sweat and tears already pondering the problem, then you’re more likely to take their advice seriously. In effect, their advice will be a lot more meaningful. And, chances are you’re going to be a lot less whimsical than the average person asking for their time. Use someone’s time in a way that won’t feel wasted.

Follow up even if they ghost you.

If they respond the first time, great. And if not, don’t give up until you’ve sent at least three emails. If they don’t respond the first time, they just might not have seen it. If they don’t respond after the ninth email, they’re just not interested.

And with each email follow up, tell them when you plan to follow up since you assume they’re busy. “If you’re too busy, I completely understand and I’ll follow up in two weeks.” On the last email if no response, thank them for their time and wish them well.

Don’t set recurring meetings (initially).

First of all, it’s a heavy ask to anyone — stranger or not. Second of all, there’s no promise that their time (and your time) won’t be wasted. Third, do you even have that much to ask about? Most of the time, you don’t. What you think you want and what you actually need are usually very different. It’s an iterative process.

Instead, start with a single question. Ask it. If they’re free for a meeting, set 20 minutes (here‘s why I like 20, instead of 30). If not, get their thoughts asynchronously. Get advice. Act on the advice (or not, but be intentional if not). The most important part is to share your results with the origin of that advice.

So, when you close out that initial meeting, ask if you can reach out to them 24 or 48 hours later after you’ve had time to mull on it or act on it. Timeframe will vary. And if you do follow up shortly after without results, limit any additional ask to 1-2 questions, max. Ideally it should take them 2-3 minutes to respond to. For any advice that takes a longer feedback loop, set a time in the future (two weeks, a month, 2 months, etc.) later to reach back out to share your learnings. And sometimes, that means you didn’t implement their advice. Why not? What did you learn from doing the counterfactual?

When you reach back out to share your learnings, see if you can jump on another 20 minute call, or shorter. And get their thoughts on the facts. Possibly get more advice. And do that again and again. Until at some point — my litmus test is usually 3-4 of these discrete exchanges, in no particular frequency —, I ask if we can get something recurring on the calendar. Nothing long. Stick to 20 minutes. And set an end date for the recurring nature. I usually do 4-5 times as the first run through.

At the end of those recurring meetings, be honest and mutually evaluate: Was it a good use of everyone’s time? If not, end it, but reach back out periodically to share your thanks, especially around the holiday season. If it does work, set another set of recurring meetings and reevaluate again in X time. And voila, you have yourself a mentor (in the traditional sense).

One more note on this… if that person is extremely busy and you know they are, sometimes a more personal touch to the email is recording a Loom and asking your question in front of a camera to that person in particular. For any Loom video, I wouldn’t go over a minute of recording time. Keep it concise, and use text to describe everything else.

Build a platform where they can share their advice with others.

Either start a podcast or a blog. Or help them find an audience that is outside of yourself —a fireside chat, a club, a non-profit, posting a Twitter thread or LinkedIn post, and so on. Their time is limited, and if they’re likely to give that same piece of advice to many others, help them find the tribe of people who are willing to listen to their advice. So instead of their advice being one-to-one, it’s one-to-many. In sum, a larger impact radius.

Of course, the caveat here is if the advice you seek is personal experience that isn’t suited for a stage, then don’t do it.

In closing

Some of the mentors I have today are folks I’ve known for years, but neither of us remember the discrete date in which it all started. Simply put, “it just happened.” There are others where we’ve never explicitly said we were mentor and mentee. Yet, I learn just as much if not more than if I had explicitly asked for mentorship. The same is true for some of the “mentees” I have.

At the same time, I wouldn’t discount the fact that you can truly find mentors everywhere in your life. Too many people focus on only finding strategic mentors, but fail to see the value in tactical and peer mentors, which I wrote more about three years back.

Photo by Ben White on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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How to Kickstart Communities – A Work-in-Progress

how to build a community, friends

I want to preface; I don’t have all the cards laid out in front of me. In many ways, I am still trying to figure this out for myself. But I count myself lucky to be able to learn from some of the best in building communities. That said, the below are my views alone and are not representative of anyone or any organization.

A good friend recently asked me, “I’m about to start a community. Do you have any tips for how to start one with a bang?”

She’s not alone. Communities have been a hot topic for the past few years. A product of the crypto and NFT craze, and the isolation people felt when the world was forced to go virtual in 2020. At the same time, starting a community and maintaining/managing a community are different. Just like starting a company and growing a company are two different job descriptions. As such, this essay was written with the intention of addressing the former, rather than the latter.

Common traits of great communities

A great community has value and values.

Value is the excuse to bring people together. Value answers the question: why should I join? And within the first week, they should also have the answer to: why should I stay? Two fundamentally different questions. Many communities frontload the value – provide great value at the beginning – facilitating intros, onboarding workshops and socials. Subsequently, answers the first question, but take the second for granted. A community is the gift that keeps on giving. Over time, as you want to be able to scale your time and as the community grows, you need others to help you provide the reason for Why should I stay. Invariably, it comes down to people. You have to pick uncompromisingly great people from the start. And they have to derive so much value from being a part of the community, that demands converts to supply.

  1. They refer others.
  2. They give back to the community – in the form of advice, hosting events, and more.

Value should also be niche – just like the beachhead market for any startup. You want people to self-select themselves out of it, and the only people who stick around are the ones who derive the most benefits from being in it. Take, for example, a community of founders isn’t niche. And there a dime a dozen of the above. A community of pre-seed female founders focused on getting to product-market fit, is.

Values, on the other hand, are the rules of engagement. Codify them early. Take no implicit agreement for granted. Better yet, make them explicit. Back in January 2020, I wrote about rules in the context of building startup culture. I find the same to be true when building communities. “Weak follow-through is another fallacy in creating the culture you want. What you let slide will define the new culture, with or without your approval.”

I don’t mean for you to be a hard-ass on everything. But figure out early on how much slack you’re willing to give, and how much you aren’t. I’ve written about this before. Every person will suck. Every organization will suck. And unsurprisingly, every community will suck. What differentiates a great community from a good community is that the great ones get to choose what they’re willing to suck at.

You should be exclusive

Moreover, my hot take is that you have to be exclusive. Or let me clarify… in the wealth of Slack groups and Discord servers, yet in the world where everyone still has a job (or two), friends, family, and other communities they’re already a part of that all already slice up their 24-hour day pie in so many different ways, you are competing for their attention. If you’re a community, you’re competing against Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, Friday happy hours, Saturday nights out with the girls, date night with their partner, eight hours of sleep, their workout routine, and so much more. And so, you have to be inclusive of those who have been excluded. As such, you have to exclude those who have historically been included.

I’m not saying that you should start a community for the underestimated just ’cause. It’s like starting a business because you want the title of CEO. Don’t do it. It’s not worth your time. It’s not worth your energy. But you have to be honest with yourself, are you adding more value in the world? Is there anyone else who would sacrifice their other commitments to belong in your community? And do you have the discipline and the drive to maintain this community in the long term? The worst thing you can do is create a new home for someone then take it away.

Building and rebuilding habits

When starting a community, you are asking individuals to build a new habit. One of your greatest competitors is the incumbent solution of existing habits and routine. Some research cites that it takes 21 days to break a habit. And about two months to build a new one. All in all, 90 days all things considered.

Elliot Berkman, Director of University of Oregon’s Social and Affective Neuroscience Laboratory, surmises that there are three factors to breaking a habit.

  1. The availability of an alternative habit
  2. Strength of motivation to change
  3. Mental and physical ability to break the habit

To break down the above:

The availability of an alternative habit

How available is the replacement behavior? Are there other communities out there that do the exact same thing? How well known are they? What are their barriers to entry?

If there is a readily available alternative community, the first question you need to answer is: why bother making another? Realistically, any one person only has enough time and attention to be in 2-3 communities – total. The second question you need to answer is: how do people normally learn of that community? And subsequently, is there a market or audience who doesn’t have access to this distribution channel? If so, what channels occupy most of their attention? Target those.

Strength of motivation to change

There’s a saying in the world of marketing that goes something along the lines of: People don’t buy products. They buy better versions of themselves. Therefore, as a community, you need to nail the value you provide. Is it aspirational? Does it get people to jump out of their seats and scream yes?

A simple litmus test is if you were to share the reason you created the community, do they respond with “How do I sign up for this now?” or “Let me think about it.”? If the latter, you haven’t nailed your value proposition. In other words, what you’re selling isn’t aspirational. Or if it is, you’re either talking to the wrong demographic or the value proposition is a 10% improvement in people’s lives, not a 10x. Sarah Tavel‘s “10x better and cheaper” framework (albeit for startups) is a great mental model for nailing your value prop. Your community must be:

  1. So much better than the incumbent solution or habit they regress to, and
  2. Easy to jump on (i.e. switching costs must be low enough for it be a no-brainer) – Sometimes this means you need to manually onboard every individual into your community. And sometimes all one needs is an accountability partner. Everyone wants be THE number that matters, not just A number. Make people feel special.

Mental and physical ability to break the habit

This is admittedly the factor that is most outside of your immediate control. Here, I regress to the below nerdy formula I made up in the process of writing this blogpost:

(how much work you need to put into each member) ∝ 1/(# of members)

The amount of work you need to put into inspiring each member to join is indirectly proportional to the number of members you can accommodate in your community. In other words, the less you need to convince people to join your community, the more members you can accommodate. The more time you need to inspire enough activation energy for a person to build a new habit, the smaller the initial cohort of members you can tailor to.

This is why I love the concept of the idea maze so much. Has your target community members put in blood, sweat, and tears trying to find the value that you are providing? Why does this matter?

  1. They’ve designed their life already around finding answers around your value prop. They’re going to be more engaged than the average individual. They’re intrinsically motivated to be curious.
  2. Shared empathy. They know how tough finding an answer is, such that they’re more willing to help others going through similar problems.

The shared struggles that people collectively and synchronously go through together build camaraderie and trust. No matter how small or big. The bonds of a sports team are built upon the sweats and tears of brutal training regimens, losses and wins. The trust of a Navy Seals class is built through Hell Week, pain, exhaustion, adversity, and (the likelihood of) death. And, the friendships between college freshmen are built through the unfamiliar environment of a new and daunting chapter of their life.

In closing

Starting a community is hard. 99% of communities (don’t quote me on this number, but I know I’m close to the mark) disappear into obsolescence after their founders lose their motivation. Oftentimes even prior. Not only are you cultivating a new habit yourself, but you are doing so for everyone else you want in your community. I hope the above was able to illuminate your thinking as much as it did for me. I continue to learn and iterate, and as such, will likely publish more content on this topic in the future. For now, this essay will be my thoughts encased in amber.

Photo by Simon Maage on Unsplash

A big thank you to everyone who’s influenced and will continue to influence my thoughts on community, including but not limited to Sam, Andrew, Mishti, Jerel, Shuo, and most recently, Enzo.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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My Top Founder Interview Questions That Fly Under The Radar

questions

As I am co-leading a VC fellowship with DECODE (and here’s another shameless plug), a few fellows asked me if I had a repository of questions to ask founders. Unfortunately, I didn’t. But it got me thinking.

There’s a certain element of “Gotcha!” when an investor asks a founder a question they don’t expect. A question out of left field that tests how well the founders know their product, team or market. In a way, that’s the sadist inside of me. But it’s not my job, nor the job of any investor, to force founders to stumble. It’s my job to help founders change the world for the better. By reducing friction and barriers to entry where I can, but still preparing them as best as I can for the challenges to come.

I’m going to spare you the usual questions you can find via a quick Google search, like:

  • What is your product? And who is your target audience?
  • How big is your market? What is your CAGR?
  • What is your traction so far?
  • How are you making money? What is your revenue model?
  • And many more where those come from.

Below are the nine questions I find the most insightful answers to. As well as my rationale behind each. Some are tried and true. Others reframe the perspective, but better help me reach a conclusion. I do want to note that the below questions are described in compartmentalized incidents, so your mileage may vary.

Here’s to forcing myself into obsolescence, but hopefully, empowering the founders reading this humble blog of mine to go further and faster.

The questions

I categorize each of the below questions into three categories:

  1. The market (Why Now)
  2. The product (Why This)
  3. And, the team (Why You)

Together, they form my NTY thesis. The three letters ordered in such a way that it helps me recall my own thesis, in an unfortunate case of Alzheimer’s.

Why Now

What are your competitors doing right?

This is the lesser-known cousin of “What are your product’s differentiators?” and “Why and how do you offer a better solution than your competitors?”. Founders are usually prepared to answer both of the above questions. I love this question because it tests for market awareness. Too often are founders trapped in the narratives they create from their reality distortion fields. If you really understand your market, you’ll know where your weaknesses are, as well as where your competitors’ strengths are.

There have been a few times I’ve asked this question to founders, and they’d have an “A-ha!” moment when replying. “My competitors are killing it in X and Y-… Oh wait, Y is our value proposition. Maybe I should be prioritizing our company’s resources for Z.”

Why is now the perfect time for your product to enter the market?

As great as some ideas are, if the market isn’t ripe for disruption, there’s really no business to be made here… at least, not yet. What are the underlying political, technological, socio-economical trends that can catapult this idea into mass adoption?

For Uber, it was the smartphone and GPS. For WordPress and Squarespace, it was the dotcom boom. And, for Shopify, it was the gig economy. For many others, it could be user habits coming out of this pandemic that may have started during this black swan event, but will only proliferate in the future. As Winston Churchill once said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

A great way to show this is with numbers. Especially your own product’s adoption and retention metrics. Numbers don’t lie.

What did your customers do/use before your product?

What are the incumbent solutions? Have those solutions become habitual practices already? How much time did/do they spend on such problems? What are your incumbents’ NPS scores? In answering the above questions, you’re measuring indirectly how willing they are to pay for such a product. If at all. Is it a need or a nice-to-have? A 10x better solution on a hypothetical problem won’t motivate anyone to pay for it. A 10x on an existing solution means there’s money to be made.

Before we can paint the picture of a Hawaiian paradise, there must have been several formative volcanic eruptions. It’s rare for companies to create new habits where there weren’t any before, or at least a breadcrumb trail that might lead to “new” habits. As Mark Twain says, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Why This

What does product-market fit look like to you?

Most founders I talk to are pre-product-market fit (PMF). The funny thing about PMF is that when you don’t have it, you know. People aren’t sticking around, and retention falls. Deals fall through. You feel you’re constantly trying to force the product into your users’ hands. It feels as if you’re the only person/team in the world who believes in your vision.

On the flip side, when you do have PMF, you also know it. Users are downloading your product left and right. People can’t stop using and talking about you. Reporters are calling in. Bigger players want to acquire you. The market pulls you. As Marc Andreessen, the namesake for a16z, wrote, “the market pulls product out of the startup.”

The problem is it’s often hard to define that cliff when pre- becomes post-PMF. While PMF is an art, it is also a science. Through this question, I try to figure out what metrics they are using to track their growth, and inevitably what could be the pull that draws customers in. What metric(s) are you optimizing for? I wouldn’t go for anything more than 2-3 metrics. If you’re focusing on everything, you’re focusing on nothing. And of these 1-3 metrics, what benchmark are you looking at that will illustrate PMF to you?

For example, Rahul Vohra of Superhuman defines PMF with a fresh take on the NPS score, which he borrows from Sean Ellis. In feedback forms, his team asks: “How would you feel if you could no longer use the product?” Users would have three choices: “very disappointed”, “somewhat disappointed”, and “not disappointed”. If 40% or more of the users said “very disappointed”, then you’ve got your PMF.

Founders don’t have to be 100% accurate in their forecasts. But you have to be able to explain why and how you are measuring these metrics. As well as how fluctuations in these metrics describe user habits. If founders are starting from first principles and measuring their value metric(s), they’ll have their priorities down for execution. Can you connect quantitative and qualitative data to tell a compelling narrative? How does your ability to recognize patterns rank against the best founders I’ve met?

If in 18 months, this product fails. What is the most likely reason why?

This isn’t exactly an original one. I don’t remember exactly where I stumbled across this question, but I remember it clicking right away. There are a million and one risks in starting a business. But as a founder, your greatest weakness is your distraction – a line in which the attribution goes to Tim Ferriss. Knowing how to prioritize your time and your resources is one of the greatest superpowers you can have. Not all risks are made equal.

As Alex Sok told me a while back, “You can’t win in the first quarter, but you can lose in the first quarter.” The inability to prioritize has been and will continue to be one of the key reasons a startup folds. Sometimes, I also walk down the second and third most likely reason as well, just to build some context and see if there are direct parallels as to what the potential investment will be used for.

On the flip side, one of my favorite follow-ups is: If in 18 months, this product wildly succeeds. What were its greatest contributing factors?

Similar to the former assessing the biggest threats to the business, the latter assesses the greatest strengths and opportunities of this business. Is there something here that I missed from just reading the pitch deck?

What has been some of the customer feedback? And when did you last iterate on them?

I’m zeroing in on two world-class traits:

  1. Open-mindedness and a willingness to iterate based on your market’s feedback. As I mentioned earlier with Marc Andreessen’s line, “the market pulls product out of the startup.” Your product is rarely ever perfect from the get-go, but is an evolving beast that becomes more robust the better you can address your customer’s needs.
  2. Product velocity. How fast are your iteration cycles? The shorter and faster the feedback loop the better. One of the greatest strengths to any startup is its speed. Your incumbents are juggernauts. They’ll need a massive push for them to even get the ball rolling. And almost all will be quite risk-averse. They won’t jump until they see where they can land. Use that to your advantage. Can you reach critical mass and product love before your incumbents double down with their seemingly endless supply of resources?

Why You

What do you know that everyone else doesn’t know, is underestimating, or is overlooking?

Are you a critical thinker? Do you have contrarian viewpoints that make sense? Here, I’m betting on the non-consensus – the non-obvious. While it’s usually too early to tell if it’s right or not, I love founders who break down how they arrived at that conclusion. But if it’s already commonly accepted wisdom, while they may be right, it may be too late to make a meaningful financial return from that insight.

But if you do have something contrarian, how did you learn that? I’m not looking for X years of experience, while that would be nice, but not necessary. What I’m looking for is how deep founders have gone into the idea maze and what goodies they’ve emerged with.

Why did you start this business?

Here, unsurprisingly, I’m looking for two traits:

  1. Your motivation. I’m measuring not just for passion, but for obsession and the likelihood of long-term grit. In other words, if there is founder-market fit. Do you have a chip on your shoulder? What are you trying to prove? And to whom? Do you have any regrets that you’re looking to undo?

    Most people underestimate how bad it’s going to get, while overestimating the upside. The latter is fine since you are manifesting the upside that the wider population does not see yet. But when the going gets tough, you need something to that’ll still give you a line of sight to the light at the end of the tunnel. Selfless motivations keep you going on your best days. Selfish motivations keep you going on your worst days.
  2. Your ability to tell stories. Before I even attempt to be sold by your product or your market, I want to be sold on you. I want to be your biggest champion, but I need a reason to believe in the product of you. You are the product I’m investing in. You’re constantly going to be selling – to customers, to potential hires, and to investors. As the leader of a business, you’re going to be the first and most important salesperson of the business.

What do you and your co-founders fundamentally disagree on?

No matter how similar you and your co-founders are, you all aren’t the same person. While many of your priorities will align, not all will. My greatest fear is when founders say they’ve never disagreed (because they agree on everything). To me, that sounds like a fragile relationship. Or a ticking time bomb. You might not have disagreed yet, but having a mental calculus of how you’ll reach a conclusion is important for your sanity, as well as the that of your team members. Do you default on the pecking order? Does the largest stakeholder in the project get the final say after listening to everyone’s thoughts?

Co-founder and CEO of Twilio, Jeff Lawson, once said: “If your exec team isn’t arguing, you’re not prioritizing.” 

I find First Round’s recent interview with Dennis Yu, Chime’s VP of Program Management, useful. While his advice centers around high-impact managers, it’s equally as prescient for founding teams. Provide an onboarding guide to your co-founders as to what kind of person are you, as well as what kind of manager/leader you are. What does your work style look like? What motivates you? As well as, what are your values and expectations for the company? What feedback are you working through right now?

In closing

Whether you’re a founder or investor, I hope these questions and their respective rationale serve as insightful for you as they did for me. Godspeed!

Photo by mari lezhava on Unsplash

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Expert + Reasonable + Crazy Idea = Crazy Good

The amazing Paul “PG” Graham came out with an essay this month on crazy new ideas. And the thing I’ve learned over the years, being in Silicon Valley, is if PG writes, you read. In it, one section in particular stood out:

“Most implausible-sounding ideas are in fact bad and could be safely dismissed. But not when they’re proposed by reasonable domain experts. If the person proposing the idea is reasonable, then they know how implausible it sounds. And yet they’re proposing it anyway. That suggests they know something you don’t. And if they have deep domain expertise, that’s probably the source of it.

“Such ideas are not merely unsafe to dismiss, but disproportionately likely to be interesting.”

I’ve written a number of essays about crazy ideas. Here. Also here. The last of which you’ll need to Ctrl F “crazy”, if you don’t want to read through all of it. And also, most recently, here. But that’s besides the point. The common theme between all of these is that crazy ideas are not hard to come by. Crazy good ideas are. Good implies that you’re right when everyone else thinks you’re crazy. When you’re in the minority. And the smaller of the minority you are in, the greater the margin on the upside. Potential upside, to be fair.

As investors, we hear crazy pitches every so often. David Cowan at Bessemer even wrote a satire on it all. For the crazy pitches, go to episode five. The question is: How do we differentiate the crazy ideas from the crazy good ideas? But as PG says, if it’s coming from someone we know is a subject-matter expert (SME) and they’re usually grounded on logic and reasoning, then we spend time listening. Asking questions. And listening. ‘Cause they most likely know something we don’t.

That was true for Brian Armstrong, who recently brought his company, Coinbase, public. He worked on fraud detection for Airbnb in its early days prior. And he knew he was getting into the deep end with crypto back in 2012. But he realized how unscalable crypto transactions were and how frustrated he was. Garry Tan, then at YC and part-time at Initialized, saw exactly that in him. A reasonable SME with a crazy idea. Garry just released an amazing interview between him and Brian too, if you want to tune into the full story.

What if some of the variables in the equation are missing?

But most of the time the founders you’re talking to aren’t subject-matter experts with deep domain expertise. Or at least, they haven’t left an online breadcrumb trail of whether they’re a thought leader or if they’re reasonable human beings. So subsequently, in the little time I have with founders in a first or second meeting, I look for proxies.

For proxies on domain expertise, I go back to first principles. What are the underlying assumptions you are making? Why are they true? How did you arrive at them? What are the growing trends (i.e. market, economic, social, tech, etc.) that have primed your startup to succeed in the market? Does timing work out?

To see if they’re “reasonable” under PG’s definition, I seek creative conflict. How do you disagree with people? If I brought in a contrarian opinion you don’t agree with, how do you enlighten me? How do you disagree with your co-founders?

In closing

To be fair, we’re not always right. In fact, we’re rarely right. On average, in a hypothetical portfolio of 10 startups, five to six go to zero. One to two break even. Another one to two make a 2-3x on investment. That is to say, they return to the investor $2-3 for every $1 invested. And hopefully, one, just one, kills it, and becomes that fund returner. Fund returner – what we call an investment that returns the whole fund and maybe more. Of course, every time a VC invests, they’re aiming for the fences every time. As a VC once told me, “it’s not about the batting average but the magnitude of the home runs you hit.” And even in those 10 investments, it’s a stretch to say that all of them are “crazy” ideas.

But the hope is that even if we’re wrong on the idea, we’re right on the people.

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The Smoke Signals of a Great Startup From the Lens of the Pitch Deck

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Founders often ask me, what slides on my pitch deck do I have to make sure I get right? The short answer, all of them. Then again, if you’re focusing on all of them, you’re focusing on none of them. So I’ll break it down by fundraising stages:

  1. Pre-seed/seed (might as well include angels here too)
  2. Series A/B

Since I spend almost no time in the later stages, I’ll refrain from extrapolating from any anecdotes there.

If you’re using DocSend, you already have the numbers for your deck viewership in front of you. As DocSend’s CEO Russ Heddleston said in his interview with Jason Calacanis, VCs often spend ~3.5 minutes on your deck. Though I’ve never timed myself, it seems to be in the same ballpark for myself as well. After all, it’s the deck that gets the meeting, not the deck that determines if you get funding or not.

Nevertheless, I hope the below contextualizes the time spent beyond the numbers, and what goes on in an investor’s head when we’re skimming through.

Pre-seed/seed

Team

  1. What is the biggest risk this business is taking on?
  2. Is the person who can address the biggest risk of this business on this slide?
    • And does this person have decision-making power?

Let’s say your biggest risk is that you’re creating a market where there isn’t one. Do you have that marketing/positioning specialist – either yourself or on your team – to tackle this problem? As much as I love techies, three CS PhDs are going to give me doubts.

Similarly, the biggest risk for a hypothetical enterprise SaaS business is often a sales risk. Then I need proof either via your network/experience or LOIs (letters of intent) that you have corporations who will buy your product.

Or if it’s a tech risk, I’ll be hesitant if I see two MBAs pursuing this. Even if their first hire is an ML engineer, who owns 2% of the business. Because it doesn’t sound like the one person who can solve the biggest risk for the business has been given the trust to make the decisions that will move the needle.

This might be a bit controversial, but having talked with several VCs, I know I’m not alone here. I don’t care about quantity – number of years in the industry or at X company. Maybe a little more if you were a founding team member who helped scale a startup to $100M ARR. I do care for quality – your earned secret, which bleeds into the next slide.

Solution/product

The million-dollar question here is: What do you know that makes money that everyone else is overlooking, underestimating, or just totally missed? If you’re a frequent reader of this blog, you’ll be no stranger to this question. I’ve talked about it here and here, just to name a few.

Or in other words, having spent time in the idea maze, what is your earned secret? Here are two more ways of looking at it is:

  1. Is there an inflection point you found, as Mike Maples Jr. of Floodgate calls it, in the socio-economic/technological trends that makes the future you speak of more probable?
  2. Is it a process/mental model that you’ve built over X years in the industry that grafts extremely well to an adjacent or a broader industry?

I believe that’s what’ll greatly increase the chances of your startup winning. Or at least hold your incumbents at bay until you reach product-market fit. If you’re able to find the first insight, then you’ll be able to find the second. And by pattern recognition, you’ll be able to find the third, fourth, and fifth in extreme velocity. It’s what we, on the VC side, call insight development. And your product/solution is the culmination of everything you and your team has learned faster and better than your competitors.

Of course, your product still has to address your customers’ greatest pain points. You don’t have to be the best at everything, but you have to be the best (or the only) one who can solve your customers’ greatest frustration. So VCs, in studying how you plot out the user journey, look for: do you actually solve what you claim this massive problem in the market is?

Series A/B

Traction

  • What are your unit economics? I’m looking for something along the lines of LTV:CAC ~3-5x.
  • Who’s paying?
    • For enterprise, which big logo is your customer? And who are your 5-7 referenceable customers?
    • For consumer:
      • If it’s freemium, what percent of premium users do you have? I’m looking for at least a 3-5% here.
      • If your platform is free, how are people paying with their time? DAU/MAU>25-30%? Is your virality coefficient k>1? 30- and 90-day retention cohorts > 20%, ideally 40%.
  • What does your conversion funnel look like? What part of the funnel are you really winning? Subsequently, what might you need more work on?

The competition

95 out of every 100 decks, I see two kinds of competitor slides:

  • 2×2 matrix/Cartesian graph, where the respective startup is on the upper right hand corner
  • The checklist, where the respective startup has all the boxes checked and their competitors have some percentage of the boxes checked

Neither are inherently wrong in nature, but they give rise to two different sets of questions.

The former, the graph, often leads to the trap of including vanity competitors. For the sake of populating the graph, founders include the logos of companies who hypothetically could be their competitors, but when it comes down to reality, they never or rarely compete on a deal with their target user/customer. April Dunford, author of Obviously Awesome, calls these “theoretical competitors.”

A simple heuristic is if you jumped on a call with a customer right now and ask: “What would you use currently if our solution did not exist?”, would the names of the competitors you listed actually pop up during the call? Or with a potential customer, what did they use before you arrived? For enterprise software, Dunford says that startups usually lose 25% of their customers when the answer to the above question is “nothing”. When your greatest incumbent is a habitual cycle deeply engrained in your user’s behavior, you need to either reposition your solution, or find ways to educate the market and greatly reduce the friction it takes to go from 0 to 60.

The latter, the checklist, usually sponsors a second kind of trap – vanity features. Founders often list a whole table’s worth of “awesome features” that their competitors don’t have, but many of which may not resolve a customer’s frustration. And on the one that does, their competitors have already taken significant market share. The key question here: Do all features listed resolve a fundamental problem your customers/users have? Which are necessary, which are nice-to-have’s? Are you winning on the features that solve fundamental problems?

The question I ask, as it pertains to competition, in the first or second meeting is: What are your competitors doing right? If you were to put yourself in your competitor’s shoes, what did they ace and what can you learn from the success of their experiment?

Financial projections

  1. What are you basing the numbers off of?
  2. What are your underlying assumptions?

How fast do you claim you can double the business growth? Is it reasonable? If we’re calculating bottom-up, can you actually sell the number of units/subscriptions you claim to? What partnerships/distribution channels are you already in advanced talks with? Anything further than 2 years out, for the most part, VCs dismiss. The future is highly unpredictable. And the further out it is, the less likely you’re able to predict that.

I also say financial projections for Series A/B decks is because only with traction can you reasonably predict what the 12-month forward revenue is going to look like. Maybe 18 months, depending on your pending contracts as well. In the pre-seed/seed, when you’re still testing out the product with small set of beta users, it’s hard to predict. And pre-seed/seed decks that have projections without much traction are often heavily scrutinized than their counterparts that don’t have that slide.

In closing

Of course, that doesn’t mean you should neglect any slide on your deck. Rather, the above is just a lens for you to see which slides an investor might allocate special attention to. If you can answer the above questions well in your pitch deck, then you’re one step closer to a winning strategy not only in fundraising, but in building a company that will change the world.

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Four Signs of Startup Founders Prioritizing Growth Too Soon

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Humans are one of the most awe-inspiring creatures that have ever graced this planet. Even though we don’t have the sharpest claws or toughest skins nor can we innately survive -50 degrees Fahrenheit, we’ve crafted tools and environments to help us survive in brutal nature. But arguably, our greatest trait is that we’re capable of writing huge epics that transcend our individual abilities and contributions. And share these narratives to inspire not only ourselves but the fellow humans around us.

A member of the our proud race, founders are no different. They are some of the greatest forecasters out there. To use Garry Tan’s Babe Ruth analogy, founders have the potential of hitting a home run in the direction they point. They build worlds, universes, myths and realities that define the future. They live in the future using the tools of today. In fact, there’s a term for it. First used by Bud Tribble in 1981 to describe Steve Jobs’ aura when building the Macintosh – the reality distortion field.

Yet, we humans are all prone to anxiety. A story nonetheless. Simply, one we tell ourselves of the future that restricts our present self’s ability to operate effectively. Anxiety comes in many shapes and sizes. For founders, one of said anxieties is attempting and worrying about the future without addressing the reality today. In the early days, it’s attempting scale before achieving product-market fit (PMF). Building a skyscraper without surveying the land – land that may be quicksand or concrete.

Here are four signs – some may not be as intuitive as the others:

The snapshot

  1. Your code architecture looks beautiful.
  2. You’re onboarding expensive experienced talent.
  3. Your cultural values lag behind the talent you hire (plan to hire).
  4. You’re bundling the market before you unbundle the needs.
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The Four Traits of World-Class Startup Founders

Proportionally speaking, I rarely make referrals and intros. Numerically speaking, I set up more intros than the average person. Frankly, if I made every intro that people have asked of me, I’d be out of social capital. It’s not to say I’m never willing to spend or risk my social capital. And I do so more frequently than most people might find comfortable. In fact, the baseline requirement for my job is to be able to put my neck on the line for the startups I’m recommending. The other side of the coin is that I’ve made more than a few poor calls in my career so far. That is to say, I’m not perfect.

I only set up intros if I can see a win-win scenario. A win for the person who wants to get introduced. And a win for the person they will be introduced to. The clearer I can see it, the easier the intro is to make. The less I can, the more I look for proxies of what could be one.

This largely has been my framework for introducing founders to investors, as well as potential hires, partners, and clients. Over the years, I realized that I’ve also been using the same for people who would like an intro to someone above their weight class.

Below I’ll share the 4 traits – not mutually exclusive – of what I look for in world-class founders.

  1. Insatiable curiosity
  2. Bias to action
  3. Empathy
  4. Promise fulfillment
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Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them

As a venture scout and as someone who loves helping pre-seed/seed startups before they get to the A, I get asked this one question more often than I expect. “David, do you think this is a good idea?” Most of the time, admittedly, I don’t know. Why? I’m not the core user. I wouldn’t count myself as an early adopter who could become a power user, outside of pure curiosity. I’m not their customer. To quote Michael Seibel of Y Combinator,

… “customers are the gatekeepers of the startups world.” Then comes the question, if customers are the gatekeepers to the venture world, how do you know if you’re on to something if you’re any one of the below:

  • Pre-product,
  • Pre-traction,
  • And/or pre-revenue?

This blog post isn’t designed to be the crystal ball to all your problems. I have to disappoint. I’m a Muggle without the power of Divination. But instead, let me share 3 mental models that might help a budding founder find idea-market fit. Let’s call it a tracker’s kit that may increase your chances at finding a unicorn.

  1. Frustration
  2. The highly fragmented industry with low NPS
  3. Right on non-consensus
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Myths around Startups and Business Ideas

In a number of recent conversations with friends outside of venture and “aspiring entrepreneurs”, a couple myths, which I’m going to loosely define here as popular beliefs held by many people, were brought to my attention. 4 in particular.

  1. If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.
  2. That idea/startup is over-hyped.
  3. The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.
  4. If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Quite fortuitously, a question on Quora also inspired this post and discussion.

If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.

Unfortunately, most times, it won’t. As Reid Hoffman puts it: “A good product with great distribution will almost always beat a great product with poor distribution.” As a founder, you have to think like a salesperson (for enterprise/B2B businesses) or a marketer (for consumer/B2C businesses). People have to know about what you’re building. ’Cause frankly you could build the world’s best time machine in your basement, but if no one knows, it’s just a time machine in your basement. Probably a great story to tell for Hollywood one day (even then you still need people to find out), but not for a business.

That idea/startup is over-hyped.

I’ll be honest. This really isn’t a myth, more of a common saying.

Maybe so, at the cross-section in time in which you’re looking at it. But if you rewind a couple months or a year or 2 years ago, they were under-hyped. In fact, there’s a good chance no one cared. While everyone has a different technical definition of over- and under-hyped, by the numbers, time will tell if it’ll be a sustainable business or not. If it’s keeping north of 40% retention even 6 months after the hype, we’re in for a breadwinner.

Take Zoom, for example. Pre-COVID, if you asked any rational tech investor, “would you invest in Slack or Zoom?” Most would say Slack. Zoom existed, but many weren’t extremely bullish on it. Today, well, that may be a different story. As of this morning (Oct. 12, 2020), while I’m editing this post before the market opens, the stock price of Zoom is $492 (and same change). Approximately 343% higher than it was on March 17th, the first day of the Bay Area shelter-in-place. And, right now, the price of Slack is $31. Approximately 56% up from the beginning of quarantine.

Neither are startups anymore, but the analogy holds. Also, a lesson that predictions, even by experts, can be wrong.

The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.

“There’s too much money being invested (wasted) on startups.”

From the outside, it may very well look that way. Every day, every week we see this startup gets funded for $X million or that startup gets funded for $YY million. According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), $133 billion were invested into startups last year. Yet, it pales in comparison to the capital that’s traded in the public markets.

VC funds see thousands of startup pitches a year. Per partner (most funds 2–3 partners), they each invest in 3–5 per year (aka about once per quarter). Meaning >99% of startups that a single VC sees are not getting funded by them. That doesn’t mean 99% never get funded, but it’s just to illustrate that proportionally, capital isn’t being spent willy-nilly.

If we look at it from a macro-economic perspective, if we are reaching saturation in the startup market, we should be getting closer to perfect competition. And in a perfectly competitive market, profit margins are zero. The thing is profits aren’t nearing zero in the startup/venture capital market. In fact, though the median fund isn’t returning much on invested capital. A good fund is returning 3–5x. A great one >5x. And well, if you were in Chris Sacca’s first fund, which included Uber, Twitter, and more, 250x MOIC. That’s $250 returned on every $1 invested.

If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Finding Product-Market Fit and “Idea-Market Fit”

Revolutionary ideas aren’t meant to conform. If an idea is truly ground-breaking, people have yet to be conditioned to think that a startup idea is great or not. As Andy Rachleff, co-founder of Wealthfront and Benchmark Capital, puts it: “you want to be right on the non-consensus.” Think Uber and Airbnb in 2008. If you asked me to jump in a stranger’s car to go somewhere then, I would have thought you were crazy. Same with living in a stranger’s home. I write more about being right on the non-consensus here and in this blog post.

Frankly, you may not be the target market. You’re not the customer that startup is serving. The constant reminder we, on the venture capital side of the table, have is to stop thinking that we are the core user for a product. Most products are not made for us. Equally, when a founder comes to us pre-traction and asks us “Is this a good idea?”, most of the time I don’t know. The numbers (will) prove if it’s a good idea or not. Unless I am their target audience, I don’t have a lot to weigh in on. I can only check, from least important to most important:

  1. How big is the market + growth rate
  2. Does the founder(s) have a unique insight into the industry that all the other players are overlooking or underestimating or don’t know at all? And will this insight keep incumbents at bay at least until this startup reaches product-market fit?
  3. How obsessed about the problem space is the founder/team, which is a proxy for grit and resilience in the longer run? And obsession is an early sign of (1) their current level of domain expertise/navigating the “idea maze”, and (2) and their potential to gain more expertise. If we take the equation for a line, y = mx + b. As early-stage investors, we invest in “m’s” not “b’s”.

In closing

While I know not everyone echoes these thoughts, hopefully, this post can provide more context to some of the entrepreneurial motions we’re seeing today. Of course, take it all with a grain of salt. I’m an optimist by nature and by function of my job. Just as a VC I respect told me when I first started 4 years back,

“If you’re going to pursue a career in venture, by nature of the job, you have to be an optimist.”

Happened to also be one of the VCs who shared his thoughts for my little research project on inspiration and frustration last week.

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VCs = Gatekeepers?

vc gatekeepers, gate

Not too long ago, I had the fortune of chatting with a fascinating product mind. During our delightful conversation, she asked me:

Are VCs the gatekeepers of ideas?

…referencing Michael Seibel‘s recent string of tweets:

And I’m in complete accordance. I want to specifically underscore 2 of Michael’s sentences.

… and…

The only ‘exception’ to this ‘rule’ would be if investors themselves were the target market for the product. At the same time, I can see how the venture industry has led her and many others to believe otherwise. So I thought I’d elaborate more through this post.

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