Predictions Are Popular

Predictions are in season. It started back during the holidays. A number of my friends, colleagues and folks online have been making predictions of what is going to happen this year. And I’m sure some are sure to hit. Many to miss. Since I’ve been reasonably active on Quora and given my role in the startup community, many people have asked me: “What are some of the best startup ideas to start in 2021? In 2022?”

Over the past year, the pandemic became a forcing function for late majorities and laggards of the adoption curve to pick up newer social and technological trends. Subsequently, accelerating many timelines. Timelines that would have otherwise been realized two, three, maybe even five years out.

  • Social is back.
    • Consumer social has been back. The pandemic has saved on average 2-3 hours of travel time per day for the average worker, job-permitting. At the same time, quarantining has reduced, if not eliminated, many in-person interactions with friends. More time means people seek to find more places to place their attention.
    • Enterprise social is here. The pandemic has forced many businesses to go remote. Similarly, there’s been a migration away from metropolitan/urban areas to save on rent, as well as an opportunity to not be shackled by geography in the past few months. Now, as well as “post-pandemic”, businesses, as well as individuals, are looking for new ways to improve efficacy, communication, and culture at work. In efforts to both retain and attract talent.
  • Impact-driven and socially-responsible businesses are hot.
  • Diversity in the board room is gaining traction. And it’s created ripple effects in the financial world. LPs are demanding venture funds to invest in diverse founders. At the same time, when diverse founders consider which investors to bring on, they look at if the checkwriters at the firm are diverse. Some investors have acted proactively; some reactively. Nevertheless, the cogs are moving.
  • E-commerce, entertainment, streaming, gaming, remote tools, edtech are all up.
  • SPACs and 2020’s string of IPOs have created many “overnight” millionaires.
  • Investing in the stock market, in alternative assets, in syndicates, and more mean more capital is being recycled back into the economy at various stages.
  • There is more capital available at the early stages. New angels. More startups. Just like pre-seed/seed is the Series A from a decade ago, more institutional investors will move upstream. Who knows, there may be a pre-pre-pre-seed round one day.
  • Innovation around the home office space is building momentum.
  • Unsurprisingly, Zoom fatigue is real, which will only led a hand in hybrid work-life models post-pandemic. Equally so, innovation around virtual meetings is only a matter of time.
  • Oculus brought down the price of a VR headset to be as much as a video game console, which means more people can and will adopt VR. Leading to larger markets and more diverse consumers for VR/AR. More startups.
  • Mental health has taken center stage, where it had previously been overlooked or disregarded.

When will the pandemic end? I don’t know.

When will we get vaccines? While experts have given us an expected date, I also don’t know.

When will “normal” return? I’m willing to bet it’s on the magnitude of years rather than months. Then again, will “normal” ever return? I might be completely wrong, but I’m willing to bet the “normal” we knew will never return. But instead, we’ll have a normal 2.0.

In truth, I can only answer what I see in my very narrow periphery. And by definition, there are a hundred-fold more that are in my blind side. And the thing is, what I’ve thought of I guarantee many other founders have already seen, tried, or are trying. What I’m looking for this year, and every year, is what I haven’t thought of yet. But when I hear and see it, it’ll click. Everything I know will make sense.

Investors are lagging indicators of innovation.

Founders are the leading indicators. Listen to them.

Photo by Nathan Anderson on Unsplash


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How to Build a Culture that Ruthlessly Prioritizes w/ Yin Wu, Founder of Pulley

Last week, I was lucky enough to jump on a call with the founder of Pulley, Yin Wu. Backed some of the best investors out there including Stripe, General Catalyst, YC, Elad Gil, just to name a few, Pulley is the ultimate tool for cap table management. In addition, Yin is a 4-peat founder, one of which led to an acquisition by Microsoft, and three of which, including Pulley, went through YC.

In our conversation, we covered many things, but one particular theme stood out to me the most: how she built a culture of ruthless prioritization.

Continue reading “How to Build a Culture that Ruthlessly Prioritizes w/ Yin Wu, Founder of Pulley”

The Four Traits of World-Class Startup Founders

Proportionally speaking, I rarely make referrals and intros. Numerically speaking, I set up more intros than the average person. Frankly, if I made every intro that people have asked of me, I’d be out of social capital. It’s not to say I’m never willing to spend or risk my social capital. And I do so more frequently than most people might find comfortable. In fact, the baseline requirement for my job is to be able to put my neck on the line for the startups I’m recommending. The other side of the coin is that I’ve made more than a few poor calls in my career so far. That is to say, I’m not perfect.

I only set up intros if I can see a win-win scenario. A win for the person who wants to get introduced. And a win for the person they will be introduced to. The clearer I can see it, the easier the intro is to make. The less I can, the more I look for proxies of what could be one.

This largely has been my framework for introducing founders to investors, as well as potential hires, partners, and clients. Over the years, I realized that I’ve also been using the same for people who would like an intro to someone above their weight class.

Below I’ll share the 4 traits – not mutually exclusive – of what I look for in world-class founders.

  1. Insatiable curiosity
  2. Bias to action
  3. Empathy
  4. Promise fulfillment
Continue reading “The Four Traits of World-Class Startup Founders”

My Top Questions to Ask Portfolio Founders When Doing Investor Diligence

I’ve recommended in a number of essays on this blog the importance of founder-investor fit. That founders should always do their diligence on potential investors, like here and here. And for a more robust understanding, asking founders in their current and previous portfolio, specifically the ones that didn’t work out. Some of my favorite questions for (ex-)portfolio founders:

  • How has [insert name] been helpful for you in your founder journey?
  • What was [insert name]‘s involvement like when shit hit the fan? Do you remember specific examples?
  • If you were to build another company (if applicable), would you work with [insert name] again?
    • If they are building another company in a relevant field, and if they say “yes”: Why haven’t you?
    • What are scenarios in which you would, and ones you wouldn’t?

Then think to yourself, were those pieces of advice actionable? Did the context help or detract from your initial disposition? Your goal isn’t to point fingers, but to paint a more holistic picture of who you might be working with closely for the long haul.

The best investors can inspire founders to think on wavelengths they might not have considered before. Some may hurt when you first hear them, but if your investors truly care, they mean well. The only reason the truth hurts is because it is the truth. And it’s your job as the founder to do your best to fix it.

The red herring

When a founder responds to the above questions with, “X investor just spent less time with us”, it’s not enough to say that an investor isn’t great.

Each VC always has his/her first and foremost duty and responsibility to the partnership. By simple economics, most of their investments won’t work out. Investors generally understand that they have to:

  1. Spend more time with the winners ’cause they’ll return the fund (and then some, hopefully),
  2. And cap their time commitment with the ones who won’t return the fund.

While that isn’t an excuse for VCs to only focus on maximizing returns (i.e. selling your IP, forcing an acquisition, unjustly firing the founder), it is something that founders should keep in mind. When you raise venture funding, just be aware of the fact that investors need to prioritize their time, especially when the going gets tough. And while it is usually implicit in the investment, a great investor/board member will often have that conversation explicitly with you at the beginning.

This notion, on the other hand, contrasts with angel investors, who are often investing out of their own net worth. So the dynamics, as well as commitment level, for angels is different. Angels often have between tens to hundreds of active investments at a time, meaning their time allocation per startup is much more limited than a VC. For context, a VC is usually actively involved in 3-7 investments at a time, meaning they’re going to be more involved per startup.

In closing

At the end of the day, the world of entrepreneurship, and business more broadly, is a relationship-building industry. And it’s extremely hard for an investor to build great relationships and a reputation if they have a track record of burning bridges. With founders. Even other investors – downstream and upstream.

Photo by Dariusz Sankowski on Unsplash


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#unfiltered #37 Why are founders leaving the Bay Area?

In the past year, largely due to the pandemic, it’s been easier than ever to create a business from anywhere in the world. Zoom for calls and meetings. Slack for asynchronous communication. Upwork for gigs. Stripe Atlas for starting a business. Notion for knowledge hubs. As long as you have a stable connection to the internet, geography no longer matters.

Additionally, major US startup hubs (i.e. SF Bay Area, NYC, Seattle, etc.) exhibit a lot of noise, and it becomes harder to discern the the signal among the noise. In the past few years, there’s been an influx of talent from across the world into these hubs. Despite the diversity of backgrounds into this 7 million strong hub, most tech entrepreneurs are stuck in the same modality of thinking. When you’re surrounded by similar personalities who gravitate towards the models that have succeeded already, you’re only going to get more of the same. It’s part of the reason why even seasoned founders with exits under their belt, still go back to startup accelerators, incubators and fellowships. They’re looking for fresh ideas not just on product, but also on business models and culture and more, that fresh blood into the industry brings.

These hubs are bubbles for a reason. I only feel qualified enough to speak on the Bay Area, where I call home now. One of Silicon Valley’s claims to fame is that we’re in a bubble, and we know we’re in a bubble. Because of that, many of the best startup founders know that their initial beachhead – their beta audience – is not here, unless your customers are tech companies, tech meetups, or coffee connoisseurs.

In venture, there have traditionally been three considerations when deciding your geographical playing field:

  1. Move to where your customers are
  2. Move to where your talent is
  3. And, move to where your capital is

And in that priority. Customers > talent > capital. I work in an ecosystem that has long perpetuated talent = capital > customers. One of the best lessons from the pandemic is that the “talent = capital > customers” function isn’t necessarily true, and that it was a product of the noise – the FOMO – that exists in the Bay. Equally so, talent in the Bay, as well as other major tech hubs, are incredibly expensive. While there’s a theme of “talent is on a discount” during COVID, it is still wildly more expensive than other parts of the world. Not only talent, but also real estate, social and professional networks, capital (yes getting money is more expensive), and the market for attention (more on that, here and here). And arguably, the same quality in many other lesser known geographic regions.

While I’m not saying every entrepreneur that has moved their HQ has gone to where their customers are, the remote work lifestyle has set precedent for many companies to rethink what they thought they knew and what they now know. With robust remote tools, like Zoom and Slack, I believe we’ll continue to challenge our understanding of what normal is. And when most companies resume a hybrid model post-COVID, I’m curious as to the emergence of new talent hubs (or maybe the lack thereof) across the world.

*Elaborated off of an answer I wrote on Quora.

Cover photo by Rezaul Karim on Unsplash


#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.


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#unfiltered #35 How Do You Know When You Click?

Over the weekend, my friend and I had this fascinating conversation about how we found our other friends. I know, metaphysical, nerdy even. But nevertheless, I thoroughly enjoyed it. She posed the question: “Is it just based on how long you’ve known each other? And how often you see each other?” For most of my life, I would have said yes. Classmates that became friends were people I met and could chat with over lunch or after school. The same is true for colleagues. And strangers. Some happened exceedingly fast – within 24 hours. Others have taken over half a year before we “warmed up” to each other.

Unsurprisingly, it gave birth to the question: At what point does an acquaintance become a friend?

The PMF parallel

To be honest, I didn’t have a good answer then, nor do I have one now. Part of the reason I’m sharing this is to open up dialogue and draw inspiration from you, my readers.

Pushing up my glasses, which I’ve got to get a new pair (open to any recommendations), I couldn’t but analogize it to startups finding product-market fit.

How do founders know when they hit product-market fit? The TL;DR version: when you’re too busy to even ponder if you have product-market fit. Or simply, you’ll know it when you have it. For the longer, less nebulous answer, I recommend checking out Lenny Rachitsky’s piece on it, and some of other essays I’ve written on the topic:

Or as Casey Winters, Chief Product Officer at Eventbrite, says:

“Product-market fit isn’t when your customers stop complaining, it’s when they stop leaving.”

Some more examples include, when:

  • You’re focused on upgrading your servers rather than acquiring customers.
  • There’s so much demand, you’re writing “I’m sorry” and “Not yet” emails to your customers who are asking when can they get off the waitlist.
  • Laggards on the adoption curve start using your product and saying wow. In Airbnb’s case, that was Joe Gebbia‘s mom using the product.
  • There are handwritten love letters in your office mailbox.
  • Customers are asking how they can pay (more) for your product.
  • You’re feeling the pull of the market rather than pushing your product in front of people.

Friends

On a similar note, when the entropy of a relationship and the subsequent conversations break into an impetuous nature that eclipses the inciting reason for the relationship, you might have something going. Or in simpler words, you can’t stop the momentum of the relationship. “What about this?” “Let’s do that!” “Ahhh, not enough time!” Of course, as all relationships go, it takes two to tango. Just like product-market fit, when you don’t have it, it’s not obvious what you need to do make it click. But when you do have person-person fit, everything makes sense. And quite obvious, in retrospect.

While the above was my answer on Sunday, I’m not completely sold it’s the end all, be all. And as I continue to find new sparks and rekindle old flames, I’m sure I will learn more about myself and others. A provocative question that may require a more provocative answer.

Top photo by Tyler Nix on Unsplash


#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

When Investor Goodwill Backfires – What It Means to be Founder-Friendly and Founder-Investor Fit

A few Fridays ago, I had the fortune of reconnecting with a founder, backed by some of the most recognizable names in the Valley and exited his business last year to a juggernaut in the data space. Now working on his second startup. And he brought something extremely curious to my attention. “Investors shouldn’t be too founder-friendly.”

I’ve talked to hundreds of founders and seen thousands of pitch decks in my short 4 years in venture capital. Yet, that Friday was the first time I’d ever heard that. And it was too bizarre for me not to double-click on. The fact that the sentence also came out of a founder’s mouth and not an investor’s bewildered me even more.

Continue reading “When Investor Goodwill Backfires – What It Means to be Founder-Friendly and Founder-Investor Fit”

#unfiltered #33 Inspiration and Frustration Pt. 2 – What Drives Some of the Most Resilient People Forward

A few weeks ago, I published Part 1 of this post on inspiration and frustration. In that time, its reception has been uplifting. Easily my most popular and well-received blog post to date. It also happens to be one of my favorite posts to have published so far. So, I thought I’d continue to ask people about their cocktail of emotions now, the below two questions:

  1. What is the one thing that inspires you so much that it makes everything else in life much easier to bear?
  2. What is stressing/frustrating you so much right now that it seems to invalidate everything else you’re doing?

But, each person can only choose one of the above two questions to answer.

Three of the below candid responses are people I asked from the first cohort, while the other eight are people I thought would add a new degree of freedom on perspective. All of which were drawn more to their inspiration than their frustration.

And as such…

  1. It takes a lot of things to inspire and motivate… rather than one individual thing. – Model, writer, founder
  2. I’m inspired to have a hand in making the world better for everyone through technological progress! – Venture capitalist
  3. I’ve made friends with a girl from my neighborhood grocery store and a stranger opened a door wide for me so I could run towards the train and not miss it. – Founding partner/CEO, investor, community manager
  4. When you start to understand that life is bigger than just you and me, there’s a shift in perspective that brings meaning and purpose to our lives. – Zynara Ng, public speaking coach, video producer, TED speaker
  5. We have the means to weather our current circumstances. – Business professor, consultant
  6. We have struggled to find an extremely valuable and painful problem to start with. Nevertheless, someone will figure it out. Why not me? – Startup founder
  7. We just got a new addition to our family. […] I look forward to future conversations about life and deep topics with him, just like this one! – Startup founder, podcast host
  8. We just tend to judge ourselves more harshly because we have our entire past and lived traumas that we judge ourselves by. – Senior policy aide
  9. Their thank you letters, pictures, and stories of how Vinder has changed or saved their business/life solidifies to me that I’m on the right path. – Sam Lillie, startup founder, hiker
  10. Since this goal is so long term and grand, it’s easy to realize that small things don’t matter. – Sohum Thakkar, engineer
  11. In a world that falls short of showing us unconditional love, I can live my life in such a way that I can be that source of acceptance that others need. – Engineer, writer
Continue reading “#unfiltered #33 Inspiration and Frustration Pt. 2 – What Drives Some of the Most Resilient People Forward”

How Entrepreneurship and Networking Are Synonymous With Each Other

A few days ago, I came across a question on Quora that sparked my interest. “What [is] the best network for developing entrepreneurship skills?” And I couldn’t help but backcast, as Mike Maples Jr. at Floodgate would call it, which I shared a bit more here. Looking at the entrepreneurs I know who have achieved some modicum of success, how did they build their entrepreneurial skills?

Taking it a bit further, what is one skill that they have that made all their other skills much easier to acquire and/or hone? And I could only come up with one answer, which is understood in various nominations. Resourcefulness. Scrappiness. Creativity under pressure. Staying lean. Frankly, their ability to hustle.

“The best network”

What is the best network for developing entrepreneurial skills?

The simple answer: One you build yourself.

The longer answer…

Entrepreneurship is a career that requires you to hustle. Likewise, a network you build yourself from reaching out and cold emailing has the potential to be stronger than even the best of networks out there. But entrepreneurship can come in two flavors: a hobby and a lifestyle.

A hobby or a lifestyle?

If entrepreneurship is a hobby, there are amazing collaborative:

  • Slack groups,
  • Subreddits,
  • Facebook groups,
  • Quora spaces,
  • Meetup groups,
  • Conferences/trade shows/expos,
  • You name it, it’s out there.

But it will be akin to sitting in a classroom and learning the theory and conceptualizations.

If entrepreneurship is a lifestyle, you need to learn by application. And unfortunately, you’ll need to develop scar tissue from making real mistakes outside the classroom. You need to hustle and find what works and doesn’t work for you. Two of my favorite venture firms, 1517 Fund and Hustle Fund, invest in founders who do exactly that. Unlike many other venture funds, it’s in their thesis. Learn by doing. Learn by hustling. While there is merit in literature and academic institutions, you are learning at the pace of the system. And when you’re a founder, often times, time is not on your side.

In a parallel, an entrepreneur once described the bifurcation as a “lean-back” versus a “lean-in” activity. A “lean-back” activity would be watching a sitcom, picking strawberries, or typing a simple response to an email chain. Whereas a “lean-in” would be playing football, playing a competitive first-person shooter game, or fixing a bug in the code 2 hours before a product launch. Entrepreneurship, as you might guess, is a “lean-in” sport. So is networking.

There are two French words I often allude to – savoir and connaître. Both mean to understand. Savoir means to understand on a superficial, factual level. Connaître means to know on a deeper, emotional level – to be deeply familiar with. As an entrepreneur, the lifestyle you choose is often not passive, but an active one, or some might argue, an aggressive one. One where the clock started ticking before you started. Sometimes, before you were even born. Ben Horowitz makes a brilliant comparison between a peacetime and a wartime CEO. From his piece, I’ll quote two of his juxtapositions:

“Peacetime CEO knows that proper protocol leads to winning. Wartime CEO violates protocol in order to win.”

“Peacetime CEO has rules like ‘we’re going to exit all businesses where we’re not number 1 or 2.’  Wartime CEO often has no businesses that are number 1 or 2 and therefore does not have the luxury of following that rule.”

Where you’re required to make decisions in difficult times, and if you don’t understand a concept or a skill to the level where it’s engrained in your bone, you will fumble more often than you run touchdowns. Part of the reason why second-time, third-time entrepreneurs usually perform better than first-time entrepreneurs.

I graduated from a stellar university, UC Berkeley, located at one of the epicenters of Silicon Valley/Bay Area, where I got my economics degree and a certification in entrepreneurship and technology. I took a number of classes that allowed me “to learn and hone” my entrepreneurship skills. While there were a handful, I came out feeling I was equipped with the knowledge to take on the world. When I put them to the test, I realized I knew nothing. When faced with reality, I didn’t know how to deal with edge cases since edge cases are rarely taught in the classroom.

Most communities and classes teach entrepreneurship skills in abstractions, making it easier to understand. Even this blog post is, in many ways, an abstraction. They rarely teach the edge cases ’cause frankly, there are too many “what if’s”. But as an entrepreneur, you need to be ready for the “what if’s”. For anything and everything. And over time, what transcends the individual skills you have is having a mental model to hedge yourself from future edge cases.

I once asked someone what being an expert meant. And I really liked his answer, as it stuck with me all these years. He said, “An expert is someone who has made all the mistakes in a very narrow field.”

Photo by Jed Villejo on Unsplash


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How to Build Fast and Not Break (As Many) Things – A Startup GTM Playbook

The tech world, particularly Silicon Valley, in the past 2 decades, has accelerated its growth ’cause of one mantra: “Move fast and break things.” Some of the most valuable products we know today were built because of that. Facebook, whose founder coined the phrase. Google. Amazon. LinkedIn. Uber. The list goes on. In sum, be “agile”. Simultaneously, I see founders, on the regular, take this mental model too far. They move fast, but they rarely give enough time to test their hypotheses.

Equally so, some companies cannot afford to “break things”. Take Dropbox, for example. Ruchi Sanghvi, founder of the South Park Commons Fund, former VP of Operations at Dropbox, and Facebook’s earliest female engineer, told VentureBeat in 2015, “Quality is really, really important to Dropbox, and as a result we needed to move slower — not slowly, but slower than Facebook.” Ruth Reader, who wrote for VentureBeat at the time, further extrapolated, “What was right for Facebook — fast-paced iteration and fixing bugs in real time — didn’t work for DropBox, an application people entrusted with personal documents like wedding photos or the first draft of a novel. What was valuable to DropBox was the details.”

On the other extreme, there are founders who spend day after day, week after week, and sometimes year after year, pursuing the “perfect” product before launching. If they were right on the money before, by the time they launch 6 months later, they might be 6 months off the money. Take the situation we’re all in today for example – the pandemic. No one could have predicted it. In fact, I had many a few predictions before the pandemic, which all proved to be unfortunately wrong.

  • The Marketplace of Startups, written on February 24, 2020 – I alluded to an opinion I held that consumer social was almost dead. The consumer app market had become so saturated that it was hard for new players to play in.
  • Myths around Startups and Business Ideas, written on October 12, 2020 – Pre-COVID, I was more bullish on Slack than Zoom as a public stock investment. History proved otherwise.

… and more to come. Mistakes are inevitable. And “the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield”, as Warren Buffett would describe. Seth Godin said in his recent interview on The Tim Ferriss Show: “Reassurance is futile because you never have enough of it.”

At the end of the day, as a startup founder, your raison d’être is creating value in the world where there wasn’t before. As Bill Gates puts it: “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it.” Analogized, your startup is that platform.

So, in this post, using the lessons from other subject-matter experts (SMEs), I’ll share how startup teams can balance speed with intentionality in their go-to-market (GTM) strategy.

Continue reading “How to Build Fast and Not Break (As Many) Things – A Startup GTM Playbook”