If 198 Pieces of Unsolicited, (Possibly) Ungoogleable Advice for Founders Were Not Enough

windmill

This is my third iteration of the 99 series for founders. You can find the first two here and here. The premise for this series was simple. The best, most insightful, unsuspecting lessons are hidden in the deepest, darkest corners of the internet. Hell, many more are hidden in rooms behind closed doors. The goal of this 99 series is to unveil those. Advice you’ve likely never thought about, and most likely have never heard of.

While you don’t need to read all the below at once, it’s helpful to keep the below at your fingertips for when you do need them. As always, unless the advice is not cited, all advice has been backlinked to its source, in case you want the longer, sometimes more nuanced version.

To make it easier for you, I’ve also pooled the advice in categories, depending on your needs:

  1. Fundraising
  2. Governance
  3. Hiring/Team/Culture
  4. Product/Customers
  5. Competition
  6. Legal
  7. Expenses
  8. Secondaries

P.S. Have I started the next one in the 99 series for founders? Yes, I have. Stay tuned!

Fundraising

1/ “Once you take venture capital, the venture capitalist’s business model is your business model. You’ve got to get liquid at a number that makes sense for them. High valuations are good because you take less dilution. Et Cetera. But the reality is that when you have a high valuation, that starts to eliminate your options. ” — Chris Douvos

2/ The employee option pool is easier to negotiate than asking an investor to take less ownership. The pool at the time of term sheet comes out of founder/team’s equity. If the pool becomes completely allocated post-investment, you need to go back to the board and ask for a larger pool, and everyone (you and VCs) gets diluted then.

3/ Beware of the “senior pari-passu,” which means that that investor gets paid paid back before everyone else on the preference stack AND they get equal footing with all the other investors. The thing to watch out for isn’t necessarily for the mechanics of the term itself, but the fact that if you let one investor have that in this round, every subsequent round, investors then will ask for that as well.

4/ Repeat founders often ask for co-sale right immunity (usually 15%) when putting together term sheets. Co-sale rights are usually provisions investors add in to prevent you, the founder, from liquidating before a liquidity event. The rights dictate the when you want to sell your equity, the investor has first dibs to buy your equity AND if not, they can also sell their equity alongside you. Because there are additional provisions, most buyers may not want to put in all the work to diligence just to have an existing investor buy your equity. And also, if your existing investors are also selling, it sends a negative signal to potential buyers.

5/ If any corporates own more than 19.5% of a company, they have to write you off as a subsidiary of the corporate and report your losses as their losses. So they’re less valuation sensitive and care less for ownership.

6/ You’re likely not the only one in market with your solution. If a competitor raises a massive round, that’s market validation. And not a reason to change your pitch. You should only change your pitch if your customers are opting for your competitor, but not if VCs are talking about your competitor. If VCs ask about your well-funded competitor, say “My customers don’t bring this up with me. But rather they bring up incumbents and this is why we’re tackling this space in full force.”

7/ “Once you have $500k+ raised, spend 2/3 of your time on funds, 1/3 on small checks.” — Ash Rust

8/ Beware of SAFE overhangs. You probably don’t want to raise more than 25% on SAFEs in comparison to the next priced round. — Martin Tobias

9/ Don’t say “The market is so large, there are room for many winners.” To a VC, that’s code for “This founder is getting their ass handed to them by competition.” — Harry Stebbings

10/ If a large number of your employee base do not have the experience of being in a startup, “make a choice about how/when/if to be transparent about the things that are happening (good and bad) and the level of startup experience within the group will be a critical factor in whether the decision to be transparent turns out to be a good one.” — Javier Soltero

11/ To fundraise, even if your last X number of months sucked, you need to show just three months of great growth prior to the fundraise. — Jason Lemkin

12/ Rough benchmarks for enterprise revenue growth for things to be interesting to VCs (— Jason Lemkin):

  • Before $1M ARR, growing 10%-15% a month
  • Around $1M ARR, growing 8%-10% a month or so
  • Around $10M ARR, ideally doubling

13/ “An investor is an employee you can’t fire.” — Vinod Khosla

14/ “Things that break the rules have a bigger threshold to overcome to grab the reader’s attention, but once they do, they tend to have a stronger, and more dedicated following. Blandness tends to get fewer dedicated followers.” — Brandon Sanderson on creative writing, but applies just as well to pitches

15/ “Great worldbuilding with bad characters and a bad plot is an encyclopedia. Great characters and a great plot with bad worldbuilding is still often an excellent book. […] The fact that time turners break the entire universe of Harry Potter wide open does not prevent that from being the strongest book in the entire series.” — Brandon Sanderson on story plots, but also applies to markets and founding teams. Replace worldbuilding with market. Replace characters with team, and plot with product-market fit or founder-market fit.

16/ In all great stories, the protagonist (in the case of a pitch, you) is proactive, capable, and relatable. Your pitch needs to show all three, but at the minimum two out of the three. — Brandon Sanderson

17/ “Data rooms are where fund-raising processes go to die.” Prioritize in-person and live conversations. When your investor asks you for documents, ask for 15 minutes on their calendar so you can “best prepare” the information they want. If they aren’t willing to give you that 15 minutes, you’ve lost the deal already. — Mark Suster

18/ “Second conversation with a serious investor is usually around what are you trying to prove and who are you trying to prove that to.” — Fund III GP

19/ “Set your own agenda or someone else will.” — Melinda Gates

20/ “The ‘raise very little’ strategy only works if you’re in a market that most people believe (incorrectly) is tiny or unimportant. If other people are paying attention, you have to beat the next guy.” — Parker Conrad

21/ Beware of stacking SAFEs. And be sure to model out that you as the founder(s), won’t dip below 50% ownership before the Series A. This is a more common problem than most founders think. Inspired by Itamar Novick.

22/ “Before you send a single email or take your first call, you should have a fully-researched pipeline CRM with a minimum number of qualified target investors.” — Chris Neumann

  • Pre-Seed: 100 – 150 qualified target investors (a mix of angel investors and VCs)
  • Seed: 80 – 100 qualified target investors (mostly VCs)
  • Series A: 60 – 80 qualified target investors (all VCs)
  • Series B: 40 – 60 qualified target investors (all VCs)

Governance

23/ Find your independent board member before shit hits the fan (usually when your investor representation and you the founders disagree). Because by the time you find an independent board member when things go south, your investor will recommend someone who’ll most likely take their side. Board members recommended by VCs usually have long standing relationships with investors and are likely to sit or have sat on other boards with that investor previously. And because they have a longer standing relationship with that VC, they will likely side with the VC when there’s a disagreement.

24/ “Board members can’t make companies but they can destroy companies.” — Brian Chesky

25/ Ask your prospective investors how long they plan to be at their firm. The worst thing that can happen is you bring on a board member and they switch firms after a year, then you’re left with a someone you didn’t pick. It’s probably also a good idea to let the investor have their board seat, contingent on them working at that firm. — Joseph Floyd

26/ Consider incorporating the company in Nevada or Texas, as Delaware courts are becoming more judiciously activist. Especially consider this if you are either politically exposed or you want more leeway and protection as a founder. — Elad Gil

27/ “When you build with other people’s money, you don’t just owe them outcomes—you owe them truth. And selling your cash to a zombie isn’t a strategy. It’s a story you tell yourself to avoid facing the music.” — Lloyed Lobo

Hiring/Team/Culture

28/ “If you raise a lot of money, do a hiring freeze and don’t hire anybody for 90 days. Money’s not going to solve your problems. You are going to solve them.” — Ryan Petersen

29/ “If you had to hire everyone based only on you knowing how good they are at a certain video game, what video game would you pick?” — Patrick O’Shaughnessy. People’s choices can be quite revealing. You can likely ask the same question for any activity/sport/topic of choice.

30/ “I hate surprises. Can you tell me something that might go wrong now so that I’m not surprised when it happens?” — Simon Sinek. A great question on how to ask weaknesses without candidates giving you a non-answer.

31/ Beware of candidates who can’t stick to a job for at least 18 months. — Jason Lemkin.

32/ Beware of candidates who love what’s on their resume. You want to be sure you’d hire them even if they didn’t have those logos/titles. — Jason Lemkin.

33/ Beware of candidates who don’t have good reasons to leave their last job. Or any job for that matter. Also watch out for candidates that leave because of salary. — Jason Lemkin.

34/ As soon as you raise capital, you should move out of a coworking space. Because as long as you are there, you cannot shape your company’s culture when the culture of the rest of the coworking space is more prevalent. — A VC who was the first institutional check into 5+ unicorns

35/ “First time founders brag about how many employees they have. Second time founders brag about how few employees they have.” — Dan Siroker.

36/ 20 years of experience is more impressive than 20 one-year experiences for deeply technical problems.

37/ 20 one-year experiences is more impressive than 20 years of experience for cultural (consumer) problems.

38/ Great founders don’t delegate understanding. Senior execs aren’t hired until founders themselves prove out the playbook.

39/ Inspired by Marc Randolph. Set boundaries around your work. Ask yourself, do you want to be starting your 7th startup and their 7th wife/husband? If not, be uncompromising with boundaries around work and life. Usually, I see most founders not have that versus most tech employees, who set boundaries almost in the opposite direction.

40/ “My two rules of thumb for CEOs (and all leaders) are:

  • ‘if you feel like a broken record, you’re probably doing something right’ and 
  • ‘always craft your comms for the person who just started this week.'” — Molly Graham

41/ At Starbucks, no matter what seniority you are, every employee has lowercase titles. And it isn’t a typo.

42/ If you don’t know how to hire a 10/10 CTO looks like, find a world-class CTO then have them help you interview CTO candidates. It’s important to nail this right in the beginning no matter how long that takes. — Jason Lemkin

43/ “People duck as a natural reflex when something is hurled at them. Similarly, the excellence reflex is a natural reaction to fix something that isn’t right, or to improve something that could be better. The excellence reflex is rooted in instinct and upbringing, and then constantly honed through awareness, caring, and practice. The overarching concern to do the right thing well is something we can’t train for. Either it’s there or it isn’t. So we need to train how to hire for it.” — Danny Meyer

44/ Prioritize references over interviewing when hiring. “Executives have more experience bullshitting you than you have experience detecting their bullshit. So it’s like an asymmetric game where you’re a white belt fighting a black belt and they’re just going to punch you in the face repeatedly.” — Brian Chesky

45/ At the end of a candidate interview process, try to convince them out of joining the company. If you only paint them the rosy picture of joining, even if they join, they’ll joined disillusioned and with expectations that this job will be a country club, which it shouldn’t be.

46/ One of the best job ads out there by Ernest Shackleton, a 19th/20th century Antarctic explorer: “Men wanted for hazardous journey, small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful, honor and recognition in case of success.”

47/ “The health of an organization is the relationship between engineering and marketing. Or in enterprise, the relationship between engineering and sales.” — Brian Chesky

48/ “Great leadership is presence, not absence.” — Brian Chesky

49/ “I want the guy who understands his limitations instead of the guy who doesn’t. On the other hand, I’ve learned something terribly important in life. I learned that from Howard Owens. And you know what he used to say? Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself.” — Charlie Munger

50/ “If you pay great people internally, you can push back on the external fees. If you don’t pay great people internally, then you’re a price taker.” — Ashby Monk

51/ “Expect 60% of your VPs to work out — and that’s if you do it right.” — Dev Ittycheria

52/ Be generous with startup equity for your first 10 employees, “as much as leaving 30% of the pool to non-founders.” Be willing to give your early engineers 3-5% of equity, as opposed to only 50-100 basis points. — Vinod Khosla

53/ “A company becomes the people it hires. […] Experience has shown me that successful startups seldom follow their original plans. The early team not only determines how the usual risks are handled but also evolves the plans to better utilize their opportunities and to address and redefine their risks continuously.” — Vinod Khosla

54/ “I often tell pensions you should pay people at the 49th percentile. So, just a bit less than average. So that the people going and working there also share the mission. They love the mission ‘cause that actually is, in my experience, the magic of the culture in these organizations that you don’t want to lose.” — Ashby Monk

55/ “Innovation everywhere, but especially in the land of pensions, endowments, and foundations, is a function of courage and crisis.” — Ashby Monk

56/ “You stay obstinate about your vision; you stay really flexible about your tactics. […] Nobody ever got to Mount Everest by charting a straight path to the peak.” — Vinod Khosla

57/ Questions to ask a candidate by Graham Duncan:

  • What criteria would you use to hire someone to do this job if you were in my seat?
  • How would your spouse or sibling describe you with ten adjectives?
  • I think we’re aligned in wanting this to be a good fit, you don’t want us to counsel you out in six months and neither do we. Let’s take the perspective of ourselves in six months and it didn’t work.  What’s your best guess of what was going on that made it not work?
  • What are the names of your last five managers, and how would they each rate your overall performance on a 1-100?
  • What are you most torn about right now in your professional life?
  • How did you prepare for this interview?
  • How do you feel this interview is going?

58/ Empower your entire team to be owners in the success of your company. “Take ownership and don’t give your project a chance to fail. Dumping your bottleneck on someone and then just walking away until it’s done is lazy and it gives room for error and I want you to have a mindset that God himself couldn’t stop you from making this video on time. Check. In. Daily. Leave. No. Room. For. Error.” — Jimmy Donaldson “Mr. Beast”

59/ “CEOs are pinch hitters. We should be working on the things that nobody else can or nobody else is.” — Jensen Huang

60/ It’s only after you’ve seen excellence first hand do you no longer need to outsource the recognition of excellence to others (brands, titles, other references).

61/ “When you’re speaking with backchannel references, you know that some of these are also mentors to the candidate, and accordingly will have influence. They’ll likely call the candidate right after your call anyway to tell them how you’re thinking about them. So ask the pointed questions you need to, but then take 10 mins at the end to also tell this person what you’re building, why it could be a special company, the momentum you have in the market and why you’re particularly excited about the candidate for this role. Get the reference excited about this opportunity for the candidate.” — Nakul Mandan

62/ “Every meeting with a great candidate is a buy-and-sell meeting, and you want to build their excitement about you to its peak right before you make the offer. Making the offer too early—before they’re fully sold—can be just as bad as losing momentum by moving too slow on someone you know you want.” — Samantha Price

63/ On co-founders being in the same boat with no Plan B… “We actually wrote this in the shareholder’s agreement and it lived there all the way until the IPO. If one of us took another job or a side hustle or took any income from any other source, we should have to give up our shares. We wanted to be fully committed. If we’re going to fail, we’re not going to fail for lack of effort.” — Olivier Bernhard

64/ “You have made a mis-hire if your Customer Success leader doesn’t understand the pains, needs, and desires of your customers as well as you do within 90 days.” — John Gleeson

65/ Ask a candidate to explain a technical challenge and to talk through how they’d approach it. Then ask them to think through how they’d do it again – but in half the time.” — Keller Rinaudo Cliffton / Sarah Guo

66/ “Your org chart either accelerates or impedes your velocity. Conway’s Law inevitably shapes output—teams structured for pace will produce systems designed for pace.” — Sarah Guo

67/ “Just look at ARR per Employee. It’s the canary in the unicorn coal mine.” — Lloyed Lobo

68/ While your co-founders should excel in areas you lack and love growing further on that wavelength, they must also at some point in their career want to grow in the area you excel in. Otherwise, they’ll never truly appreciate the work you do. And unspoken expectations lead to quiet resentments.

69/ “I find most meetings are best scheduled for 15-20 minutes, or 2 hours.  The default of 1 hour is usually wrong, and leads to a lot of wasted time.” — Sam Altman

70/ “Strategy is choosing what not to do.” — Peter Rahal

71/ When hiring talent, ask yourself: Are this candidate’s best days ahead of her or behind her?

72/ The best way to slow a project down is to add more people to it.

73/ “Never delegate understanding.” — Charles and Ray Eames

74/ There’s this great line in a book I was recently gifted by a founder. “There is only one boss — the customer. And he can fire everybody in the company, from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else.”

75/ A community or 1000 true fans built without big brands and logos is far more impressive than a community built by leveraging someone else’s brands.

76/ If your value prop is unique, you should be a price setter not a price taker, meaning your gross margins should be really good.
A compelling value prop is a comment on high operating margins. You shouldn’t need to spend a lot on sales and marketing. So the metrics to highlight would be good new ARR/S&M, LTV:CAC ratios, payback periods, or percent of organic to paid growth. — Pat Grady

77/ “If we don’t create the thing that kills Facebook, someone else will.” — Mark Zuckerberg, via a red book titled Facebook Was Not Originally Created to Be a Company, given to every employee pre-IPO

78/ The best sales people are often those who communicate the most with the engineers and product team. They tend to understand the product the best. Rule of thumb should be 80% inside, 20% outside. — Former founder with a 9-figure exit

79/ “Concentration of force is the first principal strategy. Spreading yourself too thin means not concentrating resources on the sales you could win because you are spreading time on lower quality prospects. Doing 90% of what it takes to win doesn’t result in 90% of the revenue, it results in zero. You must pick the battles you can win and win the battles you pick.” — Rick Page

80/ “One of our clients said this about a large defense contractor with multiple subsidiaries: ‘having business at one business unit not only doesn’t help me at the next one, it actually hurt me. They hate each other so much that if one business unit is for me, the other ones are against me. But they are all united in one value: they hate corporate. So the potential for working my way to the corporate offices and coming down as their worldwide standard is impossible in an account like this.” — Rick Page

81/ “Pain doesn’t come from the business problem, it comes from the political embarrassment of the business problem. If the pain or lost opportunity is not visible, then it’s not embarrassing and it will not drive business buying activity to a close.” — Rick Page

82/ “Mr. Prospect, we’ve announced a 6% price increase. We’d hate to see you buy the same proposal later at a higher price, so we really need to get this business in by the end of the quarter to secure this price. — Not only is this technique predictable, but after months of building value for your solution, you have now commoditized yourself. You have turned it from value to price on order to close business at the end of the quarter. Once you have offered a discount, you have announced what kind of vendor you are and the only question now is the price. Let the games begin.” — Rick Page

83/ “You must refocus off the imagined political benefit of a lower price, and on the longer term benefits of the overall project. ‘Mr. Prospect, how are you measured and what you will be remembered for three years from now won’t be the price, it will be the success of the project. If this goes well, the cost will be a detail. If the project goes poorly, no one will say ‘well at least we got a bargain.”” — Rick Page

84/ “Try not to take no from a person who can’t say yes.” — Rick Page

85/ Stacking the bricks, a Steve Jobs’ concept. If you have a pile of bricks and lay them on the ground, then no one will notice the ground. If you stack them up vertically, you create a tower; and everyone will notice the tower. Consider this when you have product features, launches and fixes.

86/ As of Q4 2024, it takes about 70 days to close a $100K contract for enterprise customers. Use that as your benchmark. If you’re faster, brag about it. If you’re slower than that, figure out how to close faster. — Gong State of Revenue Growth 2025 report

87/ Beware of “annual curiosity revenue.” “AI companies with quick early ARR growth can lead to false positives as many are seeing massive churn rates.” — Samir Kaji

88/ Your job is to get to innovation retention before your incumbents get to innovation.

89/ If you didn’t help create the proposal with your customer, you’ve already lost.

90/ People don’t change when they’ve made a mistake. People change when there’s a public embarrassment of them making a mistake.

91/ Know your customers intimately. Go visit your customers as often as you can. In fact, get as many passes / office keys to their offices as possible, and spend time with them.

92/ “Every other week, we have a customer join for the first 30 minutes of our management team meeting: they share their candid feedback, and ~40 leaders from across Stripe listen. Even though we already have a lot of customer feedback mechanisms, it somehow always spurs new thoughts and investigations.” — Patrick Collison

93/ “I see a lot of b2b startups moving to multiyear pricing from monthly or annual. I think this is usually a bad idea. It hides customer delight issues. It lengthens sales cycles. Overall, it just reduces the signal startups need.” — Brian Halligan

94/ Customers will still highly rate your customer service even if they didn’t get what they wanted if you show you care. That you care for their plight, and you really try to help them get what they want. — Simon Sinek

Competition

95/ “When you get outreach from multiple VC associates out of nowhere, your competitor is out raising and they’re just doing their homework.” — Siqi Chen

96/ “If you’re selling the business, tell as few people as possible and do everything you can to make sure past employees or former business associates do not find out.” Beware of moths who can start lawsuits. — Sammy Abdullah

97/ When you’re working with boutique investment banks, to protect yourself in case the banker sues when you choose to go with a different buyer… “Make sure the banker contract says they only get paid on intros they make directly and have a 6 month tail. Terminate any banker agreement as soon as they’re no longer working and the process is over; do not let these agreements linger.” — Sammy Abdullah

98/ “Never buy a SaaS product owned by private equity unless you have to. Main exception: if founder is still CEO. Why: Impossible to cancel, Price increases out of the blue, Lose any real customer success, Innovation slows down or even ends, Support usually terrible” — Jason Lemkin

99/ If you’re planning to sell founder secondaries, beware of signaling risk. Sometimes, you do have a major life event that needs capital (i.e. buying a home, having a baby, hospital bills, etc.). If you are to sell, don’t sell until the Series B. “And even then I’d suggest titrating up… 2% at A, 5% at B, 10% at >=C.” — Hari Raghavan

Photo by Jonny Gios on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

Stress and Ambition

stress, founder stress

“The thing about working with self-motivated people and driven people, on their worst day, they are pushing themselves very hard and your job is to reduce the stress in that conversation.”

It’s something Nakul Mandan from Audacious said in a Superclusters episode earlier in Season 4. And a line that’s been gnawing at me for the past few weeks. Particularly, “your job is to reduce the stress in that conversation.” So it got me thinking… Are the entrepreneurs I back stressed (enough)?

I know what you’re thinking. But before you come at me with pitchforks and torches, here me out. If you get to the end of this essay and still feel as strongly, feel free to take a swing at me.

First off, let me define some terms in the above question. An “entrepreneur” is someone who starts something that doesn’t exist in the world already. To me, that is a startup founder, a local restaurant, an emerging fund manager, and so on. I use this term pretty liberally. “Enough” is in moderation. A balance of feeling the pressure and urgency, but not enough to make one go insane. By definition, entrepreneurs — people who dare challenge the world and create something that hasn’t existed before — are ambitious. And ambitious, action-oriented doers are, to Nakul’s point, often hard on themselves. So everything in moderation. As a friend once told me, if you’re doing anything ambitious, a third of your days will be epic. A third will be okay. And a third will absolutely suck. As long as your days feel like that proportionally, you’re on the right track.

So… are the entrepreneurs I back stressed (enough)?

Let’s start with no. Are they the underdog still, pre-product-market fit, stagnating, losing market share, and/or in a crisis?

If not, carry on. It’s okay to not be stressed all the time. In fact, it’s probably not helpful to be stressed all the time.

If so — that they are the underdogs, stagnating or in a crisis — AND they’re not feeling stressed, I do wonder from time to time. And I’d be lying if some part of me didn’t feel buyer’s remorse. Because that means one of three things:

  1. They’ve lost their ability to care. About the product. The market. The team. Or simply, their own ambition. That’s the worst.
  2. Conversely, they don’t feel comfortable enough to be vulnerable with me. And that, in part, not to sugarcoat things, is because of me.
  3. They never cared enough or were ambitious enough in the first place. And that’s something I have to take back to the drawing board so that I learn the next time around.

Nevertheless, regardless of which of the three, it warrants a conversation. A difficult one. One where I try to understand their current motivations, what’s changed. If their motivations still hold true, then I, in Danny Meyer’s words, add “constant, gentle pressure.” For those curious, Chapter 9 of his book. Nevertheless, my job is to give them the activation energy to hopefully get them back on track.

If things change, great. I eventually go back to the first question. Are the entrepreneurs stressed? If not, then I let them on a few things:

  1. I’ll spend less time time with them to prioritize the rest of my portfolio.
  2. If they have any of the money left, they can keep the money. FYI, if it wasn’t my personal angel money, but someone else’s capital (of which I’m a fiduciary), depending on how much they have left, it may lead to a different conclusion. But in general, I view it as a write-off.
  3. Wish them the best of luck in their next chapter.
  4. If they feel the fire burning again (for good reason), they should let me know. And I’m happy to have another conversation.

Now… what happens if the entrepreneurs are stressed. Then I try to figure out if it’s anxiety or stress. Let me define.

Anxiety is caused by things you cannot control. For instance, the market. Other people you cannot control. Or black swan events. Stress, on the other hand, is caused by things you can control. Your own mistakes. Mistakes made by people you hired. Volume of work that needs to be done. Procrastination. Mistakes that can be actively mitigated. For instance, missing the deadline for a quarterly report. Missing payroll due to insufficient funds. Layoffs. Bad performance. Media, publicity, and perception. Something Danny Meyer calls, “writing a great last chapter.” As Danny Meyer puts it, “the worst mistake is not to figure out some way to end up in a better place after having made a mistake.”

If it’s anxiety, my role is to calm the founders. Be the mental support they need. Help them see the bigger picture. Build contingency plans.

If it’s stress, my role is to help them build an action plan. Help get key decision-makers and doers in the same room. Get the founders in front of advisors who can help them think through key considerations and check their blind side (assuming it’s not me. Most of the time it isn’t.). Of course, you need to timebox “thinking” time. There’s a great saying. “There are no right choices; only choices we make right.”

And finally, help the entrepreneurs execute the plan. Sometimes, that requires getting my hands dirty. And that’s what I’m here for. To increase the metabolism of the organization. Or at the very minimum, leadership. Stress is often caused by indigestion of tasks that need to be done.

Alas, the job of an investor, given we’re not in the driver’s seat, that we don’t always have complete information, is to reduce the stress of the founder when we have that conversation. More often than not, ambitious founders are hard enough on themselves.

Photo by Francisco Moreno on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

2024 Year in Review

2024

Undeniably, one of the most insightful books I read this year has been Setting the Table by Danny Meyer. Someone I’ve been a long time fan of. If you’re no stranger to this humble blog, you’ll notice his cameos throughout previous pieces I’ve written. I am also remarkably late to the game. The book came out in 2008. And to this day, is as timeless as it was over a decade and a half back. Thank you, Rishi and Arpan for gifting me a copy.

That book has led to blogposts like this and this. To finally cold email him (yay, he replied! Danny, if you’re reading this, thank you for making my day, hell, and a good portion of my year!). New ways on how I support GPs. More intentional ways to hire. Inspired me to take on two more writing projects and a new podcast series in 2025 (don’t worry, Superclusters isn’t going anywhere, but expanding). And I’m sure it’s only the tip of the iceberg.

And as one last fanboy moment for Danny, there’s a line he has on page 220. A line the late and great Stanley Marcus of Neiman Marcus fame once told him. “The road to success is paved with mistakes well handled.” A line I haven’t stopped thinking about since I read it.

There’s a saying in the entrepreneurial world that it takes between 10 and 15 miracles for a startup to succeed. Each miracle is a trial by fire. A right of passage. A test of character. I’ve always believed that the job of an investor is not to be helpful all the time, or share celebrations on social media, or facilitate just connections. Despite having done many of the above myself, those are all, in my mind, table stakes. Rather, the job of an investor is to be there for at least one of those critical points of failure and to be extremely valuable. To help an entrepreneur handle their mistake well, to borrow Stanley Marcus’ line.

In another episode earlier this year, Jaclyn Freeman Hester shared one of the best soundbites ever said on Superclusters.

“If I hire someone, I don’t really want to hire right out of school. I want to hire someone with a little bit of professional experience. And I want someone who’s been yelled at.”

While it makes for a great clickbait title, the lesson extends further. One only gets yelled at by making a mistake. One learns not by making mistakes, but the public embarrassment of that mistake. If someone learn of the negative aftermath of a mistake, one won’t get the feedback mechanism necessary to grow from that experience. To analogize it to elementary math, if my afterschool teacher didn’t slap me with a ruler every time I got 9+8 wrong, it would have taken me a lot longer to learn that lesson. If no one catches you accidentally making an inconsistent calculation on the balance sheet, you may never learn from that mistake.

All that to say, someone who’s been yelled at made the mistake, received the feedback mechanism to improve, and learned to handle it better next time.

So, in my long preamble, and not to bury the lead, 2025 will be the year of big mistakes. Maybe. Hopefully, well handled. 2024 was the year of laying the groundwork. A lot of which were made explicit via this blog. I’m not saying I haven’t made any mistakes. Yes, I’ve left the toilet seat up. I should have asked for more concrete examples during certain podcast interviews. Almost forgot to file my annual tax extension. Forgot to mention a sponsor at an event (luckily my co-host had my back). Made the rookie intern mistake at work. Twice. Different things, but nevertheless twice. But those mistakes will be small compared to the ones I’ll make next year.

Nevertheless, here are the hallmarks of 2024!

  1. Timeless Content for the Weary Investor — Our society spends quite a bit of time focusing on results, outputs, and success. All of which are lagging indicators of the blood, sweat and tears people put in. So instead, earlier this year, I thought it’d be interesting to compile a list of content that some of the most successful investors (LPs and VCs alike) consume. What goes in their information diet? What are the inputs? Some results may surprise!
  2. The Science of Selling – Early DPI Benchmarks — With the economy outside of AI hitting a standstill and hitting record low numbers in terms of liquidity, I’ve found a constant stream of new readers via this blogpost. Many of which I imagine to be fiduciaries and capital allocators. I do hope that one day there is more content on selling and exiting positions in a liquidity-constrained environment though. Although, I may just put out a blogpost on secondaries in the new year, inspired by a number of conversations I’ve had this year already.
  3. How to Break into VC in 2024 — It may be obvious by now that there’s no one set path to get into venture. I’ve worked with colleagues who ranged in majors from history to food science to economics to computer engineering. Additionally, those who have been a founder, a banker, a consultant, a product manager, an artist, an athlete, an actress, a public relations specialist, and the list goes on. But if you were looking for the closest thing to a silver bullet, maybe this essay would be a great place to start.
  4. Five Tactical Lessons After Hosting 100+ Fireside Chats — Surprisingly, this has stayed as a perennial blogpost. I realize even now looking back, how much I’ve learned since, but nevertheless a good starting point for those who want to interview others.
  5. The Non-Obvious Emerging LP Playbook — The first blogpost I wrote on the topic of being an LP. Still my longest one to date. Since then, I’ve learned an LP comes by many a name. Capital allocator. Asset owner. And more specifically, the difference between multi-family offices and single family offices. Family businesses. Access versus asset class LPs. And more.
  6. Non-obvious Hiring Questions I’ve Fallen in Love with — I’ve been lucky enough to spend quite a bit of time around talent magnets this year. And in the surplus of applications, they’re forced to quickly differentiate signal from noise. And these are some of the questions I’ve heard them use. And well, have also used myself when hiring these past two years.

This list hasn’t changed much this year. One can say I have yet to outdo myself. Which may be true. I admittedly, also haven’t shared these blogposts much on Twitter. In fact, over 70% of this year’s posts never touched LinkedIn or Twitter. When in the past, I invested a bit more time in expanding to new audiences. For any essay that did go a little viral this year, it was because of you, my readers. So thank you!

  1. The Science of Selling – Early DPI Benchmarks
  2. The Non-Obvious Emerging LP Playbook
  3. 10 Letters of Thanks to 10 People who Changed my Life
  4. 99 Pieces of Unsolicited, (Possibly) Ungooglable Startup Advice
  5. Five Tactical Lessons After Hosting 100+ Fireside Chats

This year was the year of LP content. Also, the year where I stopped using as many headers in my blogposts. Interestingly enough. It wasn’t any conscious decision, but at some point I just slowed my pace down. Excluding this blogpost and a few others. I wonder if I’ll use less next year.

So, to share them chronologically, here are some of my personal favorites:

  1. The Proliferation of LP Podcasts — I wrote this back in March at the beginning of Season 2 of Superclusters, and I still stand by this today. At the beginning of every content adoption curve, the question is: WHERE can I find this content? But as the content becomes fully adopted, in this case around being a capital allocator, the question will become: WHO do I want to / choose to listen to?
  2. From Demo Day to First Meeting: My Demo Day Checklist — There are times we have to make fast decisions when faced with a volume of options. Going to Demo Days and choosing who to follow up with is just one of such cases. I’m happy this year I’ve codified that practice when going to VC accelerator Demo Days. And I imagine it’s only a matter of time, before we’re faced with the volume of YC Demo Days, but for funds.
  3. The Power Law of Questions — As I’ve grown as an LP, I find myself being a lot more intentional with questions I ask fund managers. This blogpost serves as a record of questions I found myself asking quite often this year.
  4. Emerging Manager Products versus Features — In the startup world, the concept of products and features have become quite prevalent. One is a standalone business. The other is more of a subclause than a clause, incapable of being a product offering in of and itself. As I spend time thinking about an asset class, where the simplest, and likely, most facetious way of describing it, is we sell money, this blogpost serves as “value-adds” that deserve their own fund versus ones that should be built within a larger shop.
  5. Shoe Shopping — One of my posts where the title almost has nothing to do with the blogpost itself. But an observation of what differentiates VC funds beyond what they pitch the public.
  6. ! > ? > , > . — Another one of those blogposts where it’s hard to guess what it’s about from the title itself. Likely my worst essay title to date. Or best? A product of my gripe that most people don’t know how to ask for feedback. And good news! Some readers of this blog have reached out since asking for more directed feedback.
  7. Three E’s of Fund Discipline — A lot of GPs focus on entry discipline. A lot of LPs in 2024 focus on exit discipline. Both are equally as important, but both often forget about the third kind of fund discipline. Executional discipline. I give examples of each in this essay, which hopefully can help as a reminder for what is needed out of a great fund manager. A separate job description from just being a good investor. In fact, you can be the latter without ever needing to raise or manage your own fund, and still make the Midas List.
  8. Anecdotal Telltale Signs of Exceptionalism — One of the blogposts I imagine will continuously be updated. As even in 2025, I’m making edits to this one. This, at the end of the day, may just sit as an easter egg hidden in the deep corners of this blog. But for me, it will be a public log of things I’ve noticed, things I like, and things that I’ve seen work well for really exceptional people I get to meet and be friends with.

With that, 2024 comes to a close. See you all in the new year!

Photo by Eyestetix Studio on Unsplash


If you want to check out the past few years, you’ll find them encased in amber here:

4/12/2025 Edit: Added in Anecdotal Telltale Signs of Exceptionalism as one of 2024’s most memorable blogposts. One of the few blogposts that is likely to be dynamic, as opposed to static.


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

Overwhelming and Underwhelming — When to Know You Are Just “Whelming”

fireworks, light, night

One of my favorite sections in Danny Meyer’s Setting the Table (H/T to Rishi and Arpan from Garuda who not only gifted me that book, but also one of the nicest bookmarks I own today) is when he talks about whelmers.

“I ask our managers to weigh one other critical factor as they handicap the prospect. Do they believe the candidate has the capacity to become one of the top three performers on our team in his or her job category? If people cannot ever develop into one of our top three cooks, servers, managers, or maître d’s, why would we hire them? How will they help us improve and become champions? It’s pretty easy to spot an overwhelmingly strong candidate or even an underwhelmingly weak candidate. It’s the ‘whelming’ candidate you must avoid at all costs, because that’s the one who can and will do your organization the most long-lasting harm. Overwhelmers earn you ravers. Underwhelmers either leave on their own or are terminated. Whelmers, sadly, are like a stubborn stain you can’t get out of the carpet. They infuse an organization and its with mediocrity; they’re comfortable, and so they never leave; and, frustratingly, they never do anything that rises to the level of getting them promoted or sinks to the level of getting them fired. And because you either can’t or don’t fire them, you and they conspire to send a dangerous message to your staff and guests and ‘average’ is acceptable.”

In an industry where everyone is incredible — in many ways, you can’t, or at least it’s really hard to, be a GP without being overwhelming in your past in one way or another… INcredible becomes credible. So, it’s quite hard when you have a limited sample size to know who is incredible among the already incredible.

Almost everyone today is overqualified for the job, compared to the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, when most were underqualified.

So, unless you’ve been an LP, how do you know if you’re overwhelming versus just whelming?

  1. LPs who have seen at least 200 funds in the last 2-4 years tell you you’re the “only” one who is pursuing this strategy
    • They have large enough of a sample size to make an assessment. While not perfect, it’s enough to be in rarified air.
  2. You’ve been to the major LP/GP conferences (i.e. RAISE, Bridge, All Raise, SuperReturn / SuperVenture, Upfront Summit, Milken, EMC Summit, etc.) and have seen how other GPs pitch where you personally have a sample size of at least 100.
    • Even better, if you’ve been to the Demo Days or showcases for Coolwater, Recast, VC Lab, just to name a few, and you’ve seen other GP’s pitches
    • Do note what GPs say on podcasts are usually (in my experience) what they pitch to LPs.
  3. You can cold email LPs and they’ll respond.
    • LPs are notoriously closed off to cold emails. As an institution that makes only 1-3 new investments per year in an asset class, it doesn’t make sense for them to keep the doors open as much as venture investors do for founders. And even then, a lot of VCs are also averse to cold emails. That said, if you’re a GP that consistently gets meetings booked from cold emails, you might have something special.
    • More often than not, admittedly, this is due to a strong brand, either via media, personal brand, strong returns, or word of mouth.
    • Important to note that you’re never as good as they say you are, but you’re also never as bad as they say you are.
  4. When you are THE first call exited founders ($100M+ exits) make when they’re brainstorming their next company
    • Them needing a sparring partner on their next career move also counts.
    • You getting invited to whatever large event they host next does not. Including birthday parties, weddings, etc. As much as it feels good to me, you’re not overwhelming. If it puts things into perspective, I get invited to these, and I know I’m not an “overwhelming” venture investor.
    • Also if you’re the fifth person they call, you’re just “whelming.”
  5. You are cited by other investors and founders alike as the source material of an ideology or a framework.
  6. Different founders (or people in general) reach out to you consistently on topics that is not fundraising/them pitching you. In fact, they may never reach out to you on fundraising because you’re known for excellence in other areas.
  7. The best talent in the world want to work with you and they’ll find any way to do so. They’ll say things like, “What if we worked together on a small project first together?” or “How about this together?” The same world-class talent will not only prioritize your goals but also not forsake their own. ‘Cause frankly, the world’s best have their own pursuits and they are transparent and honest about it. Beware of people whose goal you don’t know and those that “give up” their dreams for yours.
  8. You have a memory like a steel trap. You quote books, passages, movies, lessons, anecdotes, stories, history, podcasts, presidential speeches from back in the day, and music in ways most people cannot fathom but make complete sense. You quote in ways where people wonder if you have photographic memory or a chip in your brain, but you actually don’t.
    • This is more or less intellectually “overwhelming”, although overwhelming may not be the right terminology. But someone who is profusely well-read and cultured in a diverse amount of material. Think Da Vinci. Or maybe a modern-day equivalent, Patrick Collison, David Senra, or Ben and David on Acquired.

The one thing I won’t include on this list, while undeniably “overwhelming,” is intuition. People with phenomenal intuition are just different. Overwhelmingly different. But in the world of venture, the word intuition is often overused and has lost its true meaning. Many investors who bet well in hindsight attribute luck to intuition. And hell, the reason I’m not including it in the above list, is that many investors think they’re heavily intuitive, which in my experience usually means:

  1. They hate math. Spreadsheets and the like. In fact, they’re likely just to be bad at it.
  2. They hate diligence. The homework that’s actually required to be a great investor.
  3. If they’re pre-economic success, they’re often spinning a tale to us. Or worse, lying to themselves.
  4. If they’re post-economic success, there’s a good chance they have hindsight bias.

That said, there are a rare few number of times where I meet someone (often not an investor) and they’re able to deduce the person I am with a glance with very little other context. To me, that feels like magic. Something that very few have. But at the same time, I do believe can be trained.

Photo by Jeffrey Hamilton on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

The Science of Re-Upping

baseball, follow on

Soooooooo… (I know, what a great word to start a blogpost) I started this essay, with some familiarity on one subject. Little did I know I was going to learn about an entirely different industry, and be endlessly fascinated about that.

The analogy that kicked off this essay is that re-upping on a portfolio company is very much like re-signing a current player on a sports team. That was it. Simple as it was supposed to sound. The goal of any analogy was to frame a new or nuanced concept, in this case, the science of re-upping, under an umbrella of knowledge we were already familiar with.

But, I soon learned of the complexity behind re-upping players’ contracts, as one might assume. And while I will claim no authority over the knowledge and calculations that go into contracts in the sports arena, I want to thank Brian Anderson and everyone else who’s got more miles on their odometer in the world of professional sports for lending me their brains. Thank you!

As well as Arkady Kulik, Dave McClure, and all the LPs and GPs for their patience and willingness to go through all the revisions of this blogpost!

While this was a team effort here, many of this blogpost’s contributors chose to stay off the record.


The year was 1997.

Nomar Garciaparra was an instantaneous star, after batting an amazing .306/.342/.534. For the uninitiated, those are phenomenal stats. On top of batting 30 home runs and 11 triples – the latter of which was a cut above the rest of the league, it won him Rookie of the Year. And those numbers only trended upwards in the years after, especially in 1999 and 2000. Garciaparra became the hope for so many fans to end the curse of the Bambino – a curse that started when the Red Sox traded the legendary Babe Ruth to the Yankees in 1918.

Then 2001 hit. A wrist injury. An injured Achilles tendon. And the fact he needed to miss “significant time” earned him a prime spot to be traded. Garciaparra was still a phenomenal hitter when he was on, but there was one other variable that led to the Garciaparra trade. To Theo Epstein, above all else, that was his “fatal flaw.”

Someone that endlessly draws my fascination is Theo Epstein. Someone that comes from the world of baseball. A sport that venture draws a lot of inspiration, at least in analogy, like one of my fav sayings, Venture is one of the only types of investments where it’s not about the batting average but about the magnitude of the home runs you hit.

If you don’t follow baseball, Theo Epstein is the youngest general manager in the history of major league baseball at 26. But better known for ending the Curse of the Bambino, an 86-year curse that led the Red Sox down a championship drought that started when the Red Sox traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees. Theo as soon as he became general manager traded Nomar Garciaparra, a 5-time All-star shortstop, to the Cubs, and won key contracts with both third baseman Bill Mueller and pitcher Curt Schilling. All key decisions that led the Red Sox to eventually win the World Series 3 years later.

And when Theo left the Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs, he also ended another curse – The Curse of the Billy Goat, ending with Theo leading them to a win in the 2016 World Series. You see, in baseball, they measure everything. From fly ball rates to hits per nine innings to pitches per plate appearance. Literally everything on the field.

But what made Theo different was that he looked at things off the field. It’s why he chose to bet on younger players than rely on the current all-stars. It’s why he measures how a teammate can help a team win in the dugout. And, it’s why he traded Nomar, a 5-time All Star, as soon as he joined, because Nomar’s “fatal flaw” was despite his prowess, held deep resentment to his own team, the Sox, when they tried to trade him just the year prior for Alex Rodriguez but failed to.

So, when Danny Meyer, best known for his success with Shake Shack, asked Theo what Danny called a “stupid question”, after the Cubs lost to the Dodgers in the playoffs, and right after Houston was hit by a massive hurricane, “Theo, who are you rooting for? The Dodgers so you can say you lost to the winning team, or Houston (Astros), because you want something good to happen to a city that was recently ravaged by a hurricane.”

Theo said, “Neither. But I’m rooting for the Dodgers because if they win, they’ll do whatever every championship team does and not work on the things they need to work on during the off season. And the good news is that we have to play them 8 times in the next season.”

You see, everyone in VC largely has access to the same data. The same Pitchbook and Crunchbase stat sheet. The same cap table. And the same financials. But as Howard Marks once said in response how you gain a knowledge advantage:

“You have to either:

  1. Somehow do a better job of massaging the current data, which is challenging; or you have to
  2. Be better at making qualitative judgments; or you have to
  3. Be better at figuring out what the future holds.”

For the purpose of this blogpost, we’re going to focus on the first one of the three.

To begin, we have to first define a term that’ll be booking its frequent flier miles for the rest of this piece – expected value.

Some defined it as the expectation of future worth. Others, a prediction of future utility. Investopedia defines it as the long-term average value of a variable. Merriam-Webster has the most rudimentary definition:

The sum of the values of a random variable with each value multiplied by its probability of occurrence

On the other hand, venture is an industry where the beta is arguably one of the highest. The risk associated with outperformance is massive as well. And the greatest returns, in following the power law, are unpredictable.

We’re often blessed with hindsight bias, but every early-stage investor in foresight struggles with predicting outlier performance. Any investor that says otherwise is either deluding you or themselves or both. At the same time, that’s what makes modeling exercises so difficult in venture, unlike our friends in hedge funds and private equity. Even the best severely underestimate the outcomes of their best performers. For instance, Bessemer thought the best possible outcome for Shopify was $400M with only a 3% chance of occurring.

Similarly, who would have thought that jumping in a stranger’s car or home, or live streaming gameplay would become as big as they are today. As Strauss Zelnick recently said, “The biggest hits are by their nature, unexpected, which means you can’t organize around them with AI.” Take the word AI out, and the sentence is equally as profound replaced with the word “model.” And it is equally echoed by others. Chris Paik at Pace has made it his mission to “invest in companies that can’t be described in a single sentence.”

But I digress.

Value itself is a huge topic – a juggernaut of a topic – and I, in no illusion, find myself explaining it in a short blogpost, but that of which I plan to spend the next couple of months, if not years, digging deeper into, including a couple more blogposts that are in the blast furnace right now. But for the purpose of this one, I’ll triangulate on one subset of it – future value as a function of probability and market benchmarks.

In other words, doubling down. Or re-upping.

For the world of startups, the best way to explain that is through a formula:

E(v) = (probability of outcome) X (outcome)

E(v) = (graduation rate) X (valuation step up from last round) X (dilution)

For the sake of this blogpost and model, let’s call E(v), appreciation value. So, let’s break down each of the variables.

What percent of your companies graduate to the next round? I shared general benchmarks in this blogpost, but the truth is it’s a bit more nuanced. Each vertical, each sub-vertical, each vintage – they all look different. Additionally, Sapphire’s Beezer recently said that it’s normal to expect a 20-30% loss ratio in the first five years of your fund. Not all your companies will make it, but that’s the game we play.

On a similar note, institutional LPs often plan to build a multi-fund, multi-decade relationship with their GPs. If they invest in a Fund I, they also expect to be there by Fund III.

How much greater is the next round’s valuation in comparison to the one in which you invested? Twice as high? Thrice? By definition, if you double down on the same company, rather than allocate to a net new company, you’re decreasing your TVPI. And as valuations grow, the cost of doubling down may be too much for your portfolio construction model to handle, especially if you’re a smaller sub-$100M fund.

It’s for the same reason that in the world of professional sports, there are salary caps. In fact, most leagues have them. And only the teams who:

  • Have a real chance at the championship title.
  • Have a lot in their coffers. This comes down to the composition of the ownership group, and their willingness to pay that tax.
  • And/or have a city who’s willing to pay the premium.

… can pay the luxury tax. Not to be too much of a homer, but the Golden State Warriors have a phenomenal team and are well-positioned to win again (at least at the time of this blogpost going out). So the Warriors can afford to pay the luxury tax, but smaller teams or teams focused on rebuilding can’t.

The Bulls didn’t re-sign the legendary Michael Jordan because they needed to rebuild. Indianapolis didn’t extend Peyton Manning’s contract ‘cause they didn’t have the team that would support Peyton’s talents. So, they needed to rebuild with a new cast of players.

Similarly, Sequoia and a16z might be able to afford to pay the “luxury tax” when betting on the world’s greatest AI talent and for them to acquire the best generative AI talent. Those who have a real chance to grow to $100M ARR, given adoption rates, retention rates, and customer demand. But as a smaller fund or a fund that has a new cast of GPs (where the old guard retired)… can you?

If a star player is prone to injury or can only play 60 minutes of a game (rather than 90 minutes), a team needs to re-evaluate the value of said player, no matter how talented they are. How much of a player’s health, motivation, and/or collaborativeness – harkening back to the anecdote of Nomar Garciaparra at the beginning – will affect their ability to perform in the coming season?

Take, for instance, the durability of a player. If there ‘s a 60% chance of a player getting injured if he/she plays longer than 60 minutes in a game and a 50% of tearing their ACL, while they may your highest scorer this season, they’re not very durable. If that player missed 25% of practices and 30% of games, they just don’t have it in them to see the season through. And you can also benchmark that player against the rest of the team. How’s that compared with the team’s average?

Of course, there’s a parallel here to also say, every decision you make should be relative to industry and portfolio benchmarks.

How great of a percentage are you getting diluted with the next round if you don’t maintain your ownership? This is the true value of your stake in the company as the company grows.

E(v) = (graduation rate) X (valuation step up from last round) X (dilution)

If the expected value is greater than one, the company is probably not worth re-upping. And that probably means the company is overhyped, or that that market is seeing extremely deflated loss ratios. In other words, more companies than should be, are graduating to the next stage; when in reality, the market is either a winner-take-all or a few-take-all market. If it is less than or equal to one, then it’s ripe to double down on. In other words, the company may be undervalued.

And to understand the above equation or for it to be actually useful (outside of an abstract concept), you need market data. Specifically, around valuation step ups as a function of industry and vertical.

If you happen to have internal data across decades and hundreds of companies, then it’s worth plugging in your own dataset as well. It’s the closest you can get to the efficient market frontier.

But if you lack a large enough sample size, I’d recommend the below model constructed from data pulled from Carta, Pitchbook, and Preqin and came from the minds of Arkady Kulik and Dave McClure.

The purpose of this model is to help your team filter what portfolio companies are worth diving deeper into and which ones you may not have to (because they didn’t pass the litmus test) BEFORE you evaluate additional growth metrics.

It is also important to note that the data we’ve used is bucketed by industry. And in doing so, assumptions were made in broad strokes. For example, deep tech is broad by design but includes niche-er markets that have their own fair share of pricing nuances in battery or longevity biotech or energy or AI/ML. Or B2B which include subsectors in cybersecurity or infrastructure or PLG growth.

Take for instance…

Energy sector appreciation values and follow-on recommendations

The energy sector sees a large drop in appreciation value at the seed stage, where all three factors contribute to such an output. Valuation step-up is just 1.71X, graduation rates are less than 50% and dilution is 38% on average.  

Second phase where re-upping might be a good idea is Series B. Main drivers as to such a decision are that dilution hovers around 35% and about 50% of companies graduate from Series A to Series B. Mark ups are less significant where we generally see only an increase in valuation at about 2.5X, which sits around the middle of the pack.

Biotech sector appreciation values and follow-on recommendations

The biotech sector sees a large drop in appreciation value at the Seed stage. This time, whereas dilution seems to match the pace of the rest of the pack (at an average of 25%), the two other factors shine greater in making a follow-on decision. Valuation step up are rather low, sitting at 1.5X. And less than 50% graduate to the next stage.

In the late 2023 market, one might also consider re-upping at the Series C round. Main driver is the unexpectedly low step-up function of 1.5X, which matches the slow pace of deployment for growth and late stage VCs. On the flip side, a dilution of 17% and graduation rate of 60% are quite the norm at this stage.

All in all, the same exercise is useful in evaluating two scenarios – either as an LP or as a GP:

  1. Is your entry point a good entry point?
  2. Between two stages, where should you deploy more capital?

For the former, too often, emerging GPs take the stance of the earlier, the better. Almost as if it’s a biblical line. It’s not. Or at least not always, as a blanket statement. The point of the above exercise is also to evaluate, what is the average value of a company if you were to jump in at the pre-seed? Do enough graduate and at a high enough price for it to make sense? While earlier may be true for many industries, it isn’t true for all, and the model above can serve as your litmus test for it. You may be better off entering at a stage with a higher scoring entry point.

For the latter, this is where the discussion of follow on strategies and if you should have reserves come into play. If you’re a seed stage firm, say for biotech, using the above example, by the A, your asset might have appreciated too much for you to double down. In that case, as a fund manager, you may not need to deploy reserves into the current market. Or you may not need as large of a reserve pool as you might suspect. It’s for this reason that many fund managers often underallocate because they overestimate how much in reserves they need.

If you’re curious to play around with the model yourself, ping Arkady at ak@rpv.global, and you can mention you found out about it through here. 😉

Photo by Gene Gallin on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.

How to Retain Talent When You Don’t Have the Cash

lightning in a bottle, spark, hold, light, jar

Earlier this week, I grabbed coffee with a founder. Let’s call him “Elijah.” He recently lost a key exec he’d been working with for two years to their incumbent competitor. The competitor’s offer happened to be too good to turn down. Triple the exec’s salary. As that exec had a family to feed and children’s education that didn’t come cheap, he made the hard decision to leave. Needless to say, Elijah was devastated. And he asked,

“David, what should I have done?”

I initially thought it was rhetorical. It seemed that way. But he paused, looked at me, and waited.

So I responded.

My response

I’ll preface by saying that the advice I shared with him was a collection of insights I learned from mentors over the years — some a lot more recently than others. I don’t hold all the keys to the castle. And every situation is, well, situational. So the last thing I wanted was for the founder to take my advice as the word of god (nor anyone reading this blogpost now). Merely a tool in the toolkit. At times, useful. Other times, just something that acts as décor in the shed.

“Elijah, it’s probably too late for that exec… for now. He’s made his decision and walked. That said, I think there are two things to be aware of here:

  1. The fact you didn’t know about this until it happened, and
  2. The decision itself.”

Pre-empting the ultimatum

For the former, here’s how I think about pre-empting your team’s career inflections.

  1. In their first week, have everyone put together their personal manifesto. What is their 6 month goal? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? Lifetime goal? What motivates them? How do they like to give and receive feedback? Of course, it’s helpful to share your own first, so they have a reference point. Don’t expect anything you’re not willing to share first. So, naturally, this requires a level of transparency, and more importantly, vulnerability.
  2. Then within the first two weeks, you and their direct manager should review their manifesto with them for at least 30 minutes live. Really get to know them. Taking a page out of Steven Rosenblatt’s book, what drives them? What haven’t they achieved that they want to achieve? How do they do their best work? When do they feel the most motivated? Why did they want to work here? Why are they excited to do so? How does working at your company fit in their broader goal?
  3. Then every quarter, allow every team member one day of mindfulness away from their work to revisit their manifesto. I usually recommend a Friday. What’s changed? What’s stayed the same? Does their current role still fit in their broader goal? If not, why not?
  4. The week after, take time to sync again and be incredibly candid.

Of course, the above is easier to do if you have a company of less than 50. At some point, when your company scales past that, it’s at least helpful to do it with your direct reports and their direct reports.

Helping with the decision

For the latter, you can’t stop a river. Even if you build a dam, the flow will always find a way around. You can’t change what motivates someone else. But you can help them channel it. The best thing you can do is equip that person with the tools to make a decision they will not regret, and wish them the best.

I like to sit people down and first help them figure out why they’re considering a new role. People often conflate the three traits of a job — compensation, scope, and title — together when making a career move. But in truth, they’re similar, but all a bit different. And I want people to know that just because they’re getting paid more doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in responsibility. Just because they’re getting a new title doesn’t mean that they’ll get more money. Then I have them stack rank the three traits. From most to least important.

If they still rank compensation first, that’s fine. Maybe they’re saving to buy a new house or to pay for their child’s higher education. And there’s nothing you nor I can do there. But if it’s one of the other two that come out on top, there’s room to create a new position or set of responsibilities where the individual feels empowered. And if it’s not at your company, they’ll be equipped to think through it at their next company. If they don’t have one lined up yet, help them through your network find one that’ll fit the criteria.

The wonderful irony

The funny thing about helping people achieve their dreams — sometimes that’s actively helping them leave your company — is that the karma usually comes back in one way or another. In this case, and I’ve seen it and experienced it before, even if you lose this person at this time and place, they’ll remember the help you gave them. To which, one day, when they have an all-star friend looking for their next opportunity, they will think of you.

There’s a saying I love. ‘The best compliment an investor can get is to get deal flow from someone they passed on.’ And here, the best compliment you can get is to get talent from someone who left your team.

In closing

Shake Shack’s Danny Meyer recently said something that echoes this notion. While he uses the word “volunteering,” he defines “volunteering” as:

“I basically, to this day, treat all of our employees as if they are volunteers, which not in the real sense. You’re going to get paid. But if you’re working for me, it means you’re probably good enough to have gotten another 25 job offers at least. And so, as far as I’m concerned, you’re volunteering to share your gifts with us.”

He goes on to say, “I didn’t have any way to motivate them with money. I couldn’t give them a raise, couldn’t dock them their pay. So I learned such a crucial lesson, which is that, if someone’s volunteering, the only way to motivate them is to have a higher purpose.”

Of course, there’s more than one way to make a team member feel like they are valued and that they value their work here. Another way is to give your prospective team member a “love bomb”, as Pulley’s Yin Wu calls it.

Now I’m not saying that if Elijah did all the above, he’s guaranteed to retain the exec. Who knows? He might have. Might not. For a man with a family and financial needs, it’s a hard ask. But at the minimum, this career move wouldn’t have blind-sided him. And better, he could’ve supported that exec in making that career move.

Just like with your product, your goal with your team is also to catch lightning in a bottle. How do you attract the best talent to work with you? And then, once you are able to, how do you keep them?

With the latter, a big part of it is showing you care.

Photo by Diego PH on Unsplash


Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!


The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.