Tag: covid

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#unfiltered #62 What I Learned From Hosting Vulnerability Circles

As you know from this blog, I spend a lot of time writing from my head. Startup, this. Venture capital, that. But comparatively little from my heart. This blog, Cup of Zhou, is not going to be the next Stratechery. Or a 20-minute VC. Or a Not Boring. For each one of the afore-mentioned, I have a tremendous respect for. Ben at Stratechery, Harry at 20VC, and Packy at Not Boring all do something I can not. And they do it really, really well. This blog is just nothing more and nothing less than me. It’s not a publicity stunt. And sure as hell, a terrible branding platform. In fact, I’m willing to shoot myself in the foot again and again, as long as I can be true to myself here.

Four people last week reached out to me. Two founders. A friend from college. And another from high school. They told me that life was tough. Things weren’t working out. And rejection sucks. They’re right. Whether your goal is to change the world or have an enduring marriage, life is rarely easy. You’re going to get that left hook more often than you’d like. And rejection fucking sucks. To those who said it gets better over time, it doesn’t. At least for me. You may get desensitized to each blow, but there will always be jabs and uppercuts that will sting more than the rest.

While I find comfort in writing my thoughts here, most people don’t have a safe space to be candid. As COVID is slowing its pace, at least in the Bay where we’ve reached a level of herd immunity, a while back, I decided to start a new series of in-person dinners where people will feel safe being vulnerable.

In hopes that this will help those hosting such circles outside of the Bay, here’s what I learned.

With both online and offline, I played around with a combination of social experiments and social observations. The former, I would lead and guide conversation through centering exercises and intentional “stage time.” The latter of which I would bring everyone together, but spend less time steering the conversation. Both were structured and all attendees were informed of the ground rules, theme for the night, and homework, oftentimes a personal story to share with the group, necessary to bring thoughtful conversation to the table.

Eyes are the windows to the soul

In group settings, shyer attendees would allocate more of their eye contact when speaking towards people they were familiar with. And given that I bring strangers (to each other) together, shyer attendees make eye contact with me – the one person they do know – more often than with others. But as they find more comfort in their fellow attendees, they slowly allocate more attention to them.

I often found that the best remedy for this was in two parts:

  1. Make eye contact with them while speaking,
  2. Mention their name intentionally a few more times than I do with other more confident guests, and
  3. Once they sustain eye contact with you when you’re openly speaking to them, redirect their attention to another attendee by then mentioning an adjacent topic that the other attendee brought up, and making eye contact with the other attendee.

Give people a path to retreat for them to stay.

Vulnerability and true authenticity is tough. For some people, it’s easier to do with strangers. For others, it’s much harder to open up to people who you’ve never met before. Nevertheless, I like to err on the side of caution. Even after I send out personal invites to each person via DM or text, where I give them the context of what they’re about to embark on, I still preface the email that includes all the details, specifically the ground rules of authenticity, open-mindedness, and candor, with: Are you willing to be vulnerable?

Then right below that question:

If your answer is “no“, I completely understand, and I won’t force you to come. Just let me know if you’re opting out, as I need an updated headcount for our reservation.

But if it’s “yes“, … [read on]

And in that same email, everyone is BCC’ed. The guest list on the calendar invite is also not visible to each guest.

Guests have multiple opportunities to opt-out. And they should if they’re uncomfortable with the setting, since the people who do come are the ones who will truly find value in having a vulnerability circle.

Being time sensitive doesn’t matter

I initially thought that people really cared that each session was going to last 2 hours and everyone only had 15 minutes of “stage time”. And the implicit promise that I would be cognizant of everyone’s times mattered. And while it still does to a reasonable degree, it hasn’t seemed to be a priority for folks especially in my social observations. The only times it does matter are:

  1. The energy in the conversation is waning and people start noticing hot silence, as opposed to cold silence.
    • Borrowing the terminology of “hot” and “cold” from Jerry Colonna, hot silence is what most people deem as awkward silence. A silence where people intentionally seek to fill the void. On the other hand, cold silence is where people are comfortable with or seek comfort in the absence of speech. Either that it lets ideas and thoughts ruminate or there is a space for tranquility that one might find calming.
  2. Someone has another commitment right after the event.
  3. People who don’t enjoy the conversations, topics, or people.
    • Luckily, this last one has yet to happen since I curate each person who comes to these circles myself. But, given how many more circles I will host in the future, it’s something I’m aware might happen.

Conversely, many of the ongoing conversations former attendees are still having with each other have come from circles that have gone overtime. This is something I’ll continue to have my pulse on to see if anything deviates from this thesis.

In closing

These vulnerability circles are only the first of many more to come. And of course, future circles will come in different variations. The ones I have planned for early next year thematically revolve around the absence and the dulling of particular senses, in order to heighten other ones. And you betcha I’ll have much more to write about then.

Photo by Cathy Mü on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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Speed As A Competitive Advantage

race car

Last week, I had an incredible fireside chat with GC’s Niko Bonatsos, who has played a key role in some incredible investments, from Livongo Health to Snap to Wag! and most recently, Saturn. In all honesty, I took much of that experience to scratch my own itch. As always, we ran out of time before we ran out of topics. But I was lucky enough to ask one of which I happened to be losing sleep over. “How do you balance speed and diligence in the increasingly competitive market of venture?”

COVID changed us

In the midst of the pandemic, COVID became a forcing function for investors to deploy capital without ever meeting founders in-person. Frankly, they couldn’t meet anyone in-person. Even if they wanted to, investors, like everyone else, was subject to a series of lockdowns, curfews, and eventually the vaccine.

Yet, as life returns to a sense of normality, many investors have gotten comfortable investing virtually. And for a handful, only virtually. At the same time, in today’s increasingly competitive venture market, capital’s become more of a commodity. And I’ve heard a number of LPs find speed to be a competitive advantage. As a product of speed, investors compete on shortened timelines. It’s a given for angels and super angels out there who have to have conviction on a fairly limited set of data. But how do top-tier funds compete in that same market yet maintain the same discipline as before?

I got my answer from Niko.

“We try to pre-empt the stuff we really care about. It basically translates to us being prepared, having frontloaded a lot of the diligence for the companies and opportunities we care about. We have a more educated conversation with the founders, and are the first ones to get to a term sheet than anyone else. That’s something we do a lot more often. And we’ve leaned into seed, which is the new series A.”

Moreover, with all the diligence they do prior to sourcing, funds, like General Catalyst and Founders Fund, have started to incubate startups where they couldn’t find solutions to problems they found.

Slowing things down

Earlier this week, over a lunch, I posed the same question to Fort Ross‘ Ratan Singh, from whom I got a slightly different variation. “VCs are doing their homework before every meeting and going in with a thesis so that they can deploy fast. VCs used to play catcher and do all their homework after the meeting. But now it’s changed, so they can say yes faster.

“While speed is a differentiator, things are moving too fast today. I met every founder I’ve invested in in-person. Even during the pandemic, I invested in seven founders, and every single one I’ve met in-person.”

To which, I had to ask, “What do you find out from meeting a founder in-person that a virtual meeting lacks in?”

Without missing a beat, Ratan said, “It’s in the small things. The way they interact with their teammates. The way they treat each other. As we finish our chat and walk back to the car, are they still an intelligent being outside of the script? A Zoom call is a 30-minute scripted call. There’s a deck. There’s the presentation they prepared. An in-person interaction is more than that.”

Ratan’s comment reminded me of something Sequoia’s Doug Leone said in his interview with Harry Stebbings recently. “It takes about thirty minutes for someone to relax, which is why I refuse to interview someone for thirty minutes.” Similarly, while a 30-minute coffee chat may just be 30 minutes, the time it takes to shake hands, order your cup of coffee, have the conversation, finish it, and walk back to your car or wait for your Uber helps anyone, not just a VC, understand so much more depth to your character.

In closing

In the words of my friend Ruben:

As if he didn’t drop enough mics in our lunch, Ratan left me with one last hot take, “In VC, you’re either asked to stay, or you’re asked to leave.” In today’s ever-changing climate, having deep domain expertise and pre-empting diligence keeps you if not ahead, at least on the curve of evolution. And for many investors, it’s one of their best bets to be asked to stay – either by the firm’s senior partners or your LPs.

Photo by toine G on Unsplash

Thank you Niko and Ratan for looking over earlier drafts.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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#unfiltered #39 Five Lessons from Trying to Engineer Serendipity in a Virtual Environment

startups, spark, how to engineer serendipity, social experiments

Over the past few months, I’ve been slowly experimenting with how I can take Hidden Questions online, while not sacrificing the intimacy of the relationships it builds as well.

Hidden Questions started as a question game I played with friends and colleagues, which eventually expanded to other strangers. The goal of which was to deepen our friendship within minutes rather than weeks, months, or even years. In sum, a game where each person has to answer the question truthfully, but is not required to reveal what the question is. The catch is that if the person decides to conceal the question, they have to take a “punishment” (i.e. crazy hot sauce, disgusting foods, durian, Beanboozled jelly beans, etc.). Before they decide to or not, other participants can ask clarifying questions, as long as it’s not “Is X the question?”, and bet additional units of “punishment” if the answeree chooses to conceal the question. Of course, if the answeree does reveal, the people who bet will take the “punishment” instead.

Some references:

What’s changed?

After over 30 sessions in the past 3 months, a few things have been hotfixed since the in-person game:

  • One-time perishable links – While not the be all end all, vua.sh lets us create a “secret messages” where only the people with the link can access the question – and only once. Once the link is opened once, it’s dead. So, this gives folks a peace of mind knowing that no one can go back and find out what the questions are. The people who create these questions are the last group/individuals who play.
  • One-slide Powerpoint presentations, reminiscent of Jeopardy, with increasing risk/depth factor of questions, scaling punishments with question difficulty/depth.
  • Mailing the “punishments” to the people I’m playing with, like Sean Evans and his team does for their show, Hot Ones, where they mail their 10 hot sauces to their guest before the interview. This way, I can keep people accountable to the punishments
  • Zoom, or an equivalent web conferencing tool – Social distancing at its best. Even better now, ’cause I get to play with people outside the Bay Area as well.

The five lessons I learned

  1. Total conversation time virtually = 100%. Total conversation time in-person > 100%.
  2. First answer makes a difference.
  3. For group calls, preface with introspective intros.
  4. The “extroverts” take over.
  5. Take the bio break.
Continue reading “#unfiltered #39 Five Lessons from Trying to Engineer Serendipity in a Virtual Environment”
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2020 Year in Review

I’ve written 102 essays on this blog in the past year, plus some change, spending an average of 1-2 hours per piece and a range from 30 minutes to 2 weeks. An average of 1,200 words per post. While not mutually exclusive, over half of which were on startup topics. One in three described the venture capital landscape. 36 (excluding #0) #unfiltered blog posts, where I share my raw, unfiltered thoughts about anything and everything. 16 on mental health. A surprising 13 on cold emails and its respective ecosystem. And my first public book review. Some didn’t age well, like The Marketplace of Startups. Some will stay evergreen.

25% of my blog posts I started writing at least 48 hours before the publish date. 1 in every 3 (-ish) of the afore-mentioned, I rewrote because I didn’t like the flow. For every 2 essays I wrote, 1 of which I had to wrestle deeply with the thought of imperfection. In effect, half of my essays were a practice to overcome my own mental stigma of “writer’s block.” Yet after over a year of writing, I realize that I’ve become prouder of my writing than when I started.

So, as the year is transitioning into the next, I thought I’d take some time to reflect on my growth 100 (+2) posts after starting this blog. Let’s call them superlatives.

Top 10 most popular

Ranked by total views per post, the 10 posts readers visit the most.

  1. #unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty – I asked 31 people I deeply respect to share some of their greatest drivers and darkest moments in life and how they got through them. You can find part 2 here with 10 more thoughts.
  2. My Cold Email “Template” – My friends have asked me for years what I write in my cold emails, and now, what and how I write my cold outreaches are available for your toolkit.
  3. Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them – An essay on the parameters and the mental models investors use to find “unicorn” startup ideas.
  4. When Investor Goodwill Backfires – What It Means to be Founder-Friendly and Founder-Investor Fit – How founders can do investor diligence before signing the term sheet and also how to best manage founder-investor dynamics
  5. #unfiltered #24 How long do you take to prepare for a talk? – A Study about Time Allocation
  6. How to Build Fast and Not Break (As Many) Things – A Startup GTM Playbook
  7. 10 Letters of Thanks to 10 People who Changed my Life – Every holiday season I write thank you letters to the people I deeply respect. It’s one of the best times of the year to reconnect. These are the letters I wrote in 2019. Here are also some I wrote this year for more context.
  8. #unfiltered #18 Naivety vs Curiosity – Asking Questions, How to Preface ‘Dumb’ Questions, Tactics from People Smarter than Me, The Questions during Founder-Investor Pitch
  9. #unfiltered #11 What I Learned About Building Communities through Social Experiments – Touching Jellyfish, Types of Social Experiments, The Thesis, Psychological Safety and Fairness
  10. The Marketplace of Startups – While many of the remarks on this blog post are now obsolete, largely incited by the 2020 Black Swan event – COVID, the two questions at the end of the blog post are the two I still like to ask founders today.

Personal favorites

While not every one of these got the limelight I had hoped, each of these are ones I felt great pride in being able to write on.

Most challenging to write

I had been wrestling with how vulnerable I can allow myself to be in the public space. Writing this post was frightening, but I’m glad I did. It cascaded into deeper conversations with my friends, colleagues and readers, but also inspired more blog posts after this about mental health.

#unfiltered #26 Am I At My Best Right Now?

In closing

I first started this blog with the intention of chronicling my own learnings in the amazing world of venture. While I couldn’t guarantee it would be helpful to every individual reading my humble meandering, I could, at least, guarantee what I write has been or continues to be instructive for me.

Within the first month it had evolved into an FAQ and a means to provide value to as many founders as I can when one day the number of people I want to help exceed my available bandwidth. Wishful thinking at the time, but a cause that inspired me forward. After the first six months, with the introduction of the #unfiltered series, I began to write to think – a way to flush out simple, unrefined ideas to more robust concepts. While I’ll forever be a work in progress, I began to make new dendrite connections that never existed before. In a way, I was and am still chronicling my own journey in hopes that it will continue to guide people beyond my immediate sphere of influence.

Thank you, each and every one of you, for accompanying me on this journey we took yesterday and the one we’ll take tomorrow. And I hope this cognitive passport will continue to serve as your cup o’ Zhou (/joe/) weekly.

Cheers, and I’m excited for the adventure ahead!

Photo by Ray Hennessy on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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Myths around Startups and Business Ideas

In a number of recent conversations with friends outside of venture and “aspiring entrepreneurs”, a couple myths, which I’m going to loosely define here as popular beliefs held by many people, were brought to my attention. 4 in particular.

  1. If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.
  2. That idea/startup is over-hyped.
  3. The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.
  4. If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Quite fortuitously, a question on Quora also inspired this post and discussion.

If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.

Unfortunately, most times, it won’t. As Reid Hoffman puts it: “A good product with great distribution will almost always beat a great product with poor distribution.” As a founder, you have to think like a salesperson (for enterprise/B2B businesses) or a marketer (for consumer/B2C businesses). People have to know about what you’re building. ’Cause frankly you could build the world’s best time machine in your basement, but if no one knows, it’s just a time machine in your basement. Probably a great story to tell for Hollywood one day (even then you still need people to find out), but not for a business.

That idea/startup is over-hyped.

I’ll be honest. This really isn’t a myth, more of a common saying.

Maybe so, at the cross-section in time in which you’re looking at it. But if you rewind a couple months or a year or 2 years ago, they were under-hyped. In fact, there’s a good chance no one cared. While everyone has a different technical definition of over- and under-hyped, by the numbers, time will tell if it’ll be a sustainable business or not. If it’s keeping north of 40% retention even 6 months after the hype, we’re in for a breadwinner.

Take Zoom, for example. Pre-COVID, if you asked any rational tech investor, “would you invest in Slack or Zoom?” Most would say Slack. Zoom existed, but many weren’t extremely bullish on it. Today, well, that may be a different story. As of this morning (Oct. 12, 2020), while I’m editing this post before the market opens, the stock price of Zoom is $492 (and same change). Approximately 343% higher than it was on March 17th, the first day of the Bay Area shelter-in-place. And, right now, the price of Slack is $31. Approximately 56% up from the beginning of quarantine.

Neither are startups anymore, but the analogy holds. Also, a lesson that predictions, even by experts, can be wrong.

The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.

“There’s too much money being invested (wasted) on startups.”

From the outside, it may very well look that way. Every day, every week we see this startup gets funded for $X million or that startup gets funded for $YY million. According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), $133 billion were invested into startups last year. Yet, it pales in comparison to the capital that’s traded in the public markets.

VC funds see thousands of startup pitches a year. Per partner (most funds 2–3 partners), they each invest in 3–5 per year (aka about once per quarter). Meaning >99% of startups that a single VC sees are not getting funded by them. That doesn’t mean 99% never get funded, but it’s just to illustrate that proportionally, capital isn’t being spent willy-nilly.

If we look at it from a macro-economic perspective, if we are reaching saturation in the startup market, we should be getting closer to perfect competition. And in a perfectly competitive market, profit margins are zero. The thing is profits aren’t nearing zero in the startup/venture capital market. In fact, though the median fund isn’t returning much on invested capital. A good fund is returning 3–5x. A great one >5x. And well, if you were in Chris Sacca’s first fund, which included Uber, Twitter, and more, 250x MOIC. That’s $250 returned on every $1 invested.

If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Finding Product-Market Fit and “Idea-Market Fit”

Revolutionary ideas aren’t meant to conform. If an idea is truly ground-breaking, people have yet to be conditioned to think that a startup idea is great or not. As Andy Rachleff, co-founder of Wealthfront and Benchmark Capital, puts it: “you want to be right on the non-consensus.” Think Uber and Airbnb in 2008. If you asked me to jump in a stranger’s car to go somewhere then, I would have thought you were crazy. Same with living in a stranger’s home. I write more about being right on the non-consensus here and in this blog post.

Frankly, you may not be the target market. You’re not the customer that startup is serving. The constant reminder we, on the venture capital side of the table, have is to stop thinking that we are the core user for a product. Most products are not made for us. Equally, when a founder comes to us pre-traction and asks us “Is this a good idea?”, most of the time I don’t know. The numbers (will) prove if it’s a good idea or not. Unless I am their target audience, I don’t have a lot to weigh in on. I can only check, from least important to most important:

  1. How big is the market + growth rate
  2. Does the founder(s) have a unique insight into the industry that all the other players are overlooking or underestimating or don’t know at all? And will this insight keep incumbents at bay at least until this startup reaches product-market fit?
  3. How obsessed about the problem space is the founder/team, which is a proxy for grit and resilience in the longer run? And obsession is an early sign of (1) their current level of domain expertise/navigating the “idea maze”, and (2) and their potential to gain more expertise. If we take the equation for a line, y = mx + b. As early-stage investors, we invest in “m’s” not “b’s”.

In closing

While I know not everyone echoes these thoughts, hopefully, this post can provide more context to some of the entrepreneurial motions we’re seeing today. Of course, take it all with a grain of salt. I’m an optimist by nature and by function of my job. Just as a VC I respect told me when I first started 4 years back,

“If you’re going to pursue a career in venture, by nature of the job, you have to be an optimist.”

Happened to also be one of the VCs who shared his thoughts for my little research project on inspiration and frustration last week.

Photo by K. Mitch Hodge on Unsplash

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#unfiltered #28 The Little Things

morning, the little things

Over the past few weeks, California has been plagued with wildfire after wildfire. It got me really thinking about what I miss.

I had a birthday resolution to run more to achieve a sub-5 mile by running in my neighborhood regularly. I used to manually water the plants in our backyard, especially my kumquat blossoms that finally bloomed after 2 years. And, I used to keep my windows open so that fresh air could fill the house.

The smell of dew and the brush of chill in the morning. The smell of freshly-cut grass in the afternoon. And the evening dinner aromas that pervaded our cute suburbia.

Then, everything changed when the Fire Nation attacked. When the smog came to our neighborhood, I no longer had that luxury. Rather, I spent my time indoors, and a few days back I wrote this in my journal.

The Little Things

Silence of the jay,
Crimson ochre dyed the sky,
Tumbleweed astray.

New kumquat blossoms
Birthed from labor, yet scorched by
Ashen canopy.

A resolve to run,
Yet I am basking under
A bright midnight sun.

Taken for granted,
A life I thought I knew well
And now much better.

Inspired by the lost
Cherished more when found, come forth
Will the little things.

Appreciating life

What else do I take for granted? What else will I deeply miss when I no longer have but aren’t fully appreciating now?

The first answer that comes into my head – the people around me. My family and my friends.

Photo by Dawid Zawiła on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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Video Games – Evolving from Social Networks to Ad Marketplaces

video games, startup gamified models, startup gamification, ads, advertisement market

With the 2020 series of events, many of us have started to look for other ways to pass our time. Some have looked towards Netflix and Disney+. A number, baking (even ice cream making; thank you to everyone who got an ice cream machine before me). And others, gaming. The number of friends, who had no track record of gaming and suddenly started talking about how to farm iron nuggets in Animal Crossing: New Horizons, skyrocketed. Anecdotally, more than 3-4 fold more.

Games = social networks

Games have become the new social networks. I’m not even talking about the gaming subreddits on Reddit or the Discord channels out there. And much like how social networks are communal hubs of interaction, games, like:

…*deep breath* just to name a few, offer just as much, if not more. People spend hours indulging on the platform and interacting with friends. Not only that, because content is native to gaming platforms themselves, it makes it easier for friends to connect and share content on progress and goals. Much like groups and communities on social networks, many games have clan systems that increase retention and engagement on the platform. Games are just sticky.

By the numbers

They aren’t discrete “one-off” purchases, like my old Nintendo 64 cartridge games, but evolving engines of narrative and relief, or as Andreessen Horowitz calls them – living franchises. What started as “one-off” buys became downloadable contents post-launch (DLCs). And looking at games like World of Warcraft, Fortnite, with constant monthly updates, patches and hotfixes, the games you buy “in the box” are no longer the same beast as before. And now we have a term for it all – Games-as-a-Service (GaaS).

In 2019, there were over 2.5 billion gamers in the world. That’s about 1 gamer out of every 3 people in the world. Together, they spent $120.1 billion on games and grew the market 3%, in a study by SuperData. And you know even Neilsen wants a slice of the pie when they acquired SuperData in 2018, a research company dedicated to tracking the game and e-sports markets. No surprise, Neilsen’s not alone. 44.2% of Tencent’s investments have been into gaming – owning 100% of Riot Games (League of Legends), 40% of Epic Games (Fortnite), 81.4% of Supercell (Clash of Clans), 10% of Bluehole (PUBG), and even 1.3% of Roblox and 2% of Discord. Sony, Microsoft, Apple, and many others are no stranger to putting their dollar into gaming as well.

Though many in 2019 weren’t bullish on the 2020’s growth numbers, in hindsight, we’re seeing a whole different wave of optimism. Hell, March 2020 was a real winner for gamers, spending $1.6 billion on games, their hardware, software, accessories and game cards, thanks for COVID. Needless to say, Animal Crossing topped the charts. I can’t imagine the number at the end of 2020.

Social athletes

You also have Twitch streamers, YouTubers, mods, and creators who become the local/global authority on the market and often ubiquitous with the games/genres they play. Who can actively and passively sway how a community thinks and acts, just like big-time influencers on social media. They have effectively become, what I call, social athletes, turning their hobby into a full-time pursuit. And earning paychecks by representing the brand/team they love most, as well as through sponsorships and partnerships. Shroud, a former competitive e-sports athlete, now one of the biggest streamers in the industry and formerly exclusively streaming on Microsoft’s Mixer, took a 1.5 month break after the Microsoft shut down its Twitch competitor, Mixer. And on his first day back recently, he had half a million viewers tuning in to watch his revival on Twitch.

The next frontier

Just like how social networks evolved into ad-based revenue models, games are evolving into a similar beast, as well. Mobile games have been no stranger to advertisements for a long time. But we’re now seeing the change now on PC and console games. And in a slightly different nature. Where the ads are embedded into the game experience itself, rather than the pop-out kinds.

Epic Games’ Fortnite definitely took it all to the next level – from their live, in-game events to their virtual cosmetic options that acted as film promotions. The latter, much like, how LEGO releases a whole series of movie-related sets to help with promoting it. And their live events are no joke, whether it was:

  • Their live Marshmello concert (with 11 million attending live),
  • Their Marvel crossover event where players could play as Thanos,
  • Or, when 3.1 million players got a sneak peek into a never-before-seen scene in Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker before it came to theaters.

As expected, many other games are following suit. Recently popular PC game, Fall Guys, is now hosting a “battle of the brands” on their Twitter – a bidding war to have your brand featured as a cosmetic in the game towards a good cause of donating to Special Effect, a charity dedicated to helping gamers with physical disabilities.

Last I checked, the bid is at $420,069.69. And yes, I’m sure the numbers were intentional.

So, what’s next?

Well, it’s an exciting time. Not too long ago, influencer marketing blew up. And now brands/games are becoming influencers in and of themselves. Whether that fall under influencer marketing or a new bucket, I don’t know. What I do know is that though we are all far apart right now, the world of media is bringing the larger world closer together. As more games:

  • Go cross-platform,
  • Are discovered organically and socially,
  • And are fueled and accelerated alongside co-creaters, influencers and user-generated content…

… while technologies, like 5G, virtual and augmented/mixed reality (VR/AR/XR), cloud gaming, and blockchain, bring more interactions into each game, building larger and immersive worlds, I’m quite bullish on the growth of the gaming industry. And as the gaming industry evolves, their learnings will bleed into other industries, via gamified models – from Pioneer gamifying the process of building a business to Superhuman gamifying productivity, first through emails.

Why? They’re sticky – high engagement and retention cohorts. And I dare say, sexy, as well. Frankly, game companies don’t just launch with minimum viable products (MVP), but minimum viable happiness (MVH). Or as Jiaona Zhang, VP Product at Webflow and lecturer at Stanford’s School of Management Science & Engineering, calls it: minimum lovable products (MLP).

If you’re interested in a deep dive on how to offer MVH or build an MLP, check out my previous post on the topic:

A Reason to Stay

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Looking at Business Models – Consumer Behaviors and Gross Margins

startup business models, waves, consumer behaviors

While sipping on my morning green tea, I’m inspired by Venture Stories’ recent podcast episode where Erik was interviewing Charles Hudson of Precursor, where they codify Charles’ investment thesis, markets, business models, among many other topics. A brilliant episode, if I say so myself! And it got me thinking.

Some market context

In the past few months, I’ve been chatting with a number of founders who largely seem to gravitate towards the subscription business model. Even pre-COVID, that seemed to be the case. And this notion was and is further perpetuated where a plethora of VCs turned their attention to XaaS (X-as-a-service).

Why? Pre-COVID, the general understanding was that consumers were:

  1. More expensive to acquire,
  2. And, harder to retain,

…which I shared in one of my February posts. I’d even heard some investors say: “Consumer social is dead.” Although I personally didn’t go as far as to illustrate the death of a vertical, I had become relatively more bearish on consumer than I did when I started in venture. Clearly, we were wrong. The question is: how much of this current situation will still hold true post-COVID? And honestly, your guess is as good as mine. But I digress.

Given the presumption that the consumer industry was faltering, many VCs re-positioned their theses to index more on enterprise and SaaS models. Models that had relatively fixed distribution channels and recurring revenue. It became some form of ‘guarantee’ that their investments could make their returns. And as the demand for startups shifted, supply followed.

The Business Models

Though there seemingly has been an overindexing of subscription models in the consumer space, I’m still an optimist for its future. The important part is to follow consumer behavior.

  • What do their consumption patterns look like?
  • What do their purchasing patterns look like?
  • How do customers think about value?

Here is a set of lens in which I think about business model application:

Subscription“One-off”
Continuous consumption patterns
>3-4 times in a month
(Ideally, >3-4 times per week)		Discrete consumption patterns
~1-2 times a year
Extremely episodic in nature
Proactive, expectant behaviorReactive behavior
Examples:
Food
Groceries
Music
Education		Examples:
Moving homes
One-off Conferences
Travel
Car
Note: The examples are generalized. The business models will depend on your target market. For example, travel for the average family may not happen on a recurring basis, but travel for a consultant happen weekly (pre-COVID).

The Extremes of Gross Margins

Of course, I can’t talk about business models without talking about profits. The ultimate goal of any business model is to realize returns – gross margins. Unfortunately, there’s no silver bullet on how you price your product. While you find the optimum price (range) for your product A/B testing with your customers, here’s a little perspective onto the two extremes of the spectrum.

  1. If you have insanely high margins, expect lots of competitors – either now or in the near future. Expect price-based competition, as you may most likely, fight in a race to the bottom. Much like the 1848 California Gold Rush. Competitors are going to rush in to saturate the market and squeeze the margins out of “such a great opportunity”.
  2. If your margins are incredibly low, as Charles said on the podcast, “there better be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.” You need extremely high volumes (i.e. GMV, “liquidity” in a marketplace) to compensate for the minimal cut you’re taking each transaction. A fight to monopolize the market. I’m looking for market traits like:
    1. Growing market size.
      • Ideally heavily fragmented market where you can capture convoluted, antiquated, and/or unconcentrated processes in the status quo.
      • Why unconcentrated? Don’t underestimate the power of your incumbents’ brands and product offerings. Like don’t jump in ad tech if you’re just going to fight against the Google and Facebook juggernauts, who own 80% of the ad market.
    2. Insane network effects.
    • For example, payments or food delivery. Food delivery is one where you have to reach critical mass before focusing on cash flow/profitability. I get it. It’s a money-eating business… until network effects kick in. Sarah Tavel wrote a Medium article about this where she explains it more elegantly than I have.

In closing

I’ve seen many founders end up taking their models for granted or sticking to a single generic revenue structure. But the best founders I meet make this a very intentional part of their business. Sometimes, even having different revenue streams for different parts of the business. If that’s the case for you too, Connie’s piece about multimodal models may be worth a read.

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Competitive Awareness as a Founder

sailing, competitor analysis, competitor awareness

For a while, I’ve been publicizing one of my favorite questions for founders.

“What unique insight (that makes money) do you have that either everyone else is overlooking or underestimating?”

I first mentioned it in my thesis. And, which might provide more context, was quickly followed by my related posts on:

For the most part, founders are pretty cognizant of this X-factor. B-schools train their MBAs to seek their “unfair advantange”. And a vast majority of pitch decks I’ve seen include that stereotypical competitor checklist/features chart. Where the pitching startup has collected all the checkmarks and their competitors have some lackluster permutation of the remaining features.

There’s nothing wrong with that slide in theory. Albeit for the most part, I gloss over that one, just due to its redundancy and the biases I usually find on it. But I’ve seen many a deck where, for the sake of filling up that checklist, founders fill the column with ‘unique’ features that don’t correlate to user experience or revenue. For example, features that only 5% of their users have ever used, with an incredibly low frequency of usage. Or on the more extreme end, their company mascot.

To track what features or product offerings are truly valuable to your business, I recommend using this matrix.

And, I go into more depth (no pun intended) here.

Competitive Awareness > Competitive Analysis

I’m going to shed some nuance to my question in the words of Chetan Puttagunta of Benchmark. He once said on an episode of Harry Stebbings’ The Twenty Minute VC:

“The optimal strategy is to assume that everybody that is competing with you has found some unique insight as to why the market is addressable in their unique approach. And to assume that your competitors are all really smart – that they all know what they’re doing… Why did they pick it this way? And really picking it apart and trying to understand that product strategy is really important.”

So, I have something I need to confess. Another ‘secret’ of mine. There’s a follow-up question. After my initial ‘unique insight’ one, if I suspect the founder(s) have fallen in their own bubble. Not saying that they definitively have if I ask it, but to help me clear my own doubts.

“What are your competitors doing right?”

Or differently phrased, if you were put yourself in their shoes, what is something you now understand, that you, as a founder of [insert their own startup], did not understand?

In asking the combination of these two questions, I usually am able to get a better sense of a founder’s self-awareness, domain expertise, and open-mindedness.

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#unfiltered #11 What I Learned About Building Communities through Social Experiments – Touching Jellyfish, Types of Social Experiments, The Thesis, Psychological Safety and Fairness

jellyfish, social experiment, psychological safety, how to build a community
Are these jellyfish friendly or not? Will they “bite”?

As colorful and as beautiful jellyfish are, we are still scared of the possible danger that each possess. So, most of us only admire them from afar. And for many of us who have seen some, we’ve watched them float gracefully in dark blue aqueous solutions across a sometimes distorted film of glass. These beautiful mysteries of the deep blue.

To Touch the Jellyfish

Much like my fascination every time my parents brought me to the aquarium as a kid, I’ve been fascinated with the people around me. Especially about the thin, sometimes distorted, film between these exceptionally fascinating souls and me. The distortion created as a function of society’s, as well as their own, efforts.

Exactly a year and two months ago, I embarked on a journey to host small-scale social experiments, like:

  • Hidden Questions. A game where no one else knows the question, except for the person answering it. And where the person answering has the choice of sharing the question that inspired the answer or taking it to the grave by taking a shot of hot sauce (about a 700,000 on the Scoville scale, for reference) or a variable number of Beanboozled beans.
  • Brunches with Strangers. Quite literally, Saturday brunches with strangers. Hosting a cast of people from all walks of life. Like founders, street artists, astrophysicists, concept artists, athletes, criminal investigators, filmmakers, college drop-outs, and much more.
  • The Curious Case of Aliases. Where players (strangers to each other) under aliases guess each other’s hobbies, occupations, deepest fears, etc. after only playing in a 30-minute game session. For instance, skribbl.io. Cards Against Humanity. Codenames. And Mafia.
  • And, the most recent addition to my small Rolodex of social experiments, Improv Presentations. A TED talk-like night where people present someone else’s creatively esoteric slide decks, with no context as to what’s in the deck until they’re on “stage”. To the postmortem dismay of my cheeks and core, we saw everything from how to survive a cat-pocalypse to how to master the art of DM’ing using military tactics to how to be a good plant parent.

The Thesis, The Questions

As COVID would have it, the lack of in-person interaction and self-quarantine inspired the last two. Yet, all of which with the same thesis: helping make the world feel a little smaller, a little closer, and a whole lot more interesting. Starting not with the people who bathe in the limelight, but with the people directly around me.

Why is it so hard to be candid with strangers? And sometimes, even harder with family and friends?

Do we need alcohol, drugs, crazy incidents, violence, a lack of sleep, or stress to truly be ourselves?

Though not all-encompassing, people seem to be naturally curious about things, events, status, money, and gossip. Why aren’t people more curious about people – well, as just themselves? Like me, you’ve probably posed and have gotten the question: “How are you?” or “How are you doing?”. And likely, with more times than one is willing to admit, we didn’t really care about what the answer might be. Often times, since we know we’re just going to get a “Good” or “OK” in response.

If you want to have some fun, I highly recommend the next time someone asks you that, say “Terrible”. And watch the computer chip in their brain malfunction for a quick second.

What did I learn?

I won’t claim I found the universal truth or a holistic answer to any of those questions I posed above. Because I haven’t. After all, someone I really respect once told me:

“50% of what you know is true. 50% is false. The problem is you don’t know which half is which.”

So, in my life, my goals are two-fold:

  1. Build a system to help me discern my two halves of knowledge.
  2. Expand the total capacity of what I know.

I will share more on this blog as I am able to draw more lines of regression myself.

But in the context of this post, through social experiments, I’ve discovered that people yearn for psychological safety. Not only does Google’s Project Aristotle share its effectiveness in the workplace, it’s equally, if not more true, outside of it as well. The reason that it’s sometimes easier to share your thoughts and struggles with strangers is that strangers often won’t judge you to the same extent as friends and family do. Frankly, they don’t have much context to judge you from – implicitly and explicitly.

People want fairness. Not in the sense of you get 1 cookie, so I should get 1 too. But a fair system to be judged by. That I will get the same benefit of doubt as you will give to anyone and everyone else. When we all get drunk together, we will all be drunk and we will all relieve ourselves of any filters we may previously have. And though everyone’s drunk personality is different, and frankly everyone will still be judged… For that moment, that night, everyone’s on the same playing field.

The Applications

Let’s take most recent experiment with improv presentations as an example. The initial idea was that everyone should present their own slide decks. As serious or as silly as they might be. But some of my friends were hesitant. In their words, they felt they needed to “impress” or “have better public speaking skills”. Some simply said that they didn’t think they’d “be as good as others”.

Before our first “TED Talks@Home”, I shifted it altogether where we’d all be presenting each other’s presentation. All of us would have no context as to what we’re presenting until we get on “stage”. Whether we were experts on a specific topic or in comedy or deck-making, we’re all jumping into a bottomless pool together. After our second virtual improv night, this past weekend, between muted giggles and visual laughs, one of the presenters told me that it wasn’t as bad as she thought it would be, and that she’d want to do it again.

Luckily, it seems more than 60% of my friends, colleagues, and acquaintances come back to participate in more brunches or game sessions or improv nights. 1 in 4 guests have proactively started friendships outside of the experiments. And about 5% have introduced their new friends to their friend circles. A small handful have also been inspired to start their own. So, maybe I’m doing something right.

Building Communities

The same (psychological safety and fair system) holds true for building communities, creating your corporate culture, and finding and keeping your friend group and your significant other. Although in the context of building communities, but applicable elsewhere as well, I forget who told me this once:

“A strong community has both value and values.”

– The person who told me this, please come claim this quote

Value is why people initially come out to join a community and admittedly, reach out to be a friend. Whether it’s because of who you know or what you can offer or how you can help them pass the time, it’s the truth. Values are why they stay. And safety happens to be one of those values.

In closing

As always, my findings aren’t meant to be prescriptive. But merely act as a guide – another tool in your toolkit – so that you are better equipped for future endeavors.

Like with people, when one day I get to touch a jellyfish, I don’t care about being stung. But I do want to know where I can touch where I won’t be stung. And subsequently, where I will touch where I know I will be stung. The difference between going in blind and not is that when I get stung, I am prepared to be.

Photo by Mathilda Khoo on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

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