Category: Startup

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Before the Close – How to Increase the Chance of Raising Capital

A number of founders ask me for fundraising advice. While they come in different magnitudes, one of the common themes is: “I’ve had many investor meetings, but I still can’t get a term sheet. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to do or to say to get a yes?”

To preface, I don’t have the one-size-fit-all solution. Neither do I think there is a one-size-fit-all solution. Each investor is looking for something different. And while theses often rhyme, the “A-ha!” moment for each investor is a culmination of their own professional and life experiences. This anecdote is, by no means, prescriptive, but another perspective that may help you when fundraising, if you’re not getting the results you want. This won’t help you cheat the system. If you still have a shoddy product or an unambitious team, you’re still probably not going to get any external capital.

One thing I learned when I was on the operating side of the table is: When you want money, ask for advice. When you want advice, ask for money. It’s, admittedly, a slightly roundabout way to get:

  1. Investor interest,
  2. And reference points for milestones to hit.

But it’s worked for me. Why? Because you’re fighting in a highly-competitive, heavily-saturated market of attention – investor attention. This method merely helps you increase the potential surface area of interaction and visibility, to give you time in front of an investor to prove yourself.

Investors are expected to jump into a long term marriage with founders, while, for the most part, only given a small cross-section in your founding journey to evaluate you. It’s as if you chose to marry someone for life you’ve only met 60-90 days ago. While angels and some people have the courage and the conviction to do that, most investors like to err on the side of caution. Contrary to popular belief, venture capitalists are extremely risk-averse. They look for risk-adjusted bets. And if you can prove to them – either through traction or an earned secret – that you’re not just a rounding error, you’ll make their lives a lot easier.

So, let me elaborate.

When you want money, ask for advice.

As you’re growing your business and you want to show you are, ask investors for advice. Tell them. “So I’ve been growing at X% MoM, and I’ve gotten to Y # of users. I’m thinking about pursuing this Z as my next priority. And this is how I plan to A/B test it. What do you think?”

And if you keep these investors in the loop the entire time and ask and follow-up on their advice, at some point, they’d think and ask, “Damn, this is an epic business. Will you just take my money?”

So, what are good numbers?

The Rule of 40 is a rough rule of thumb many investors use for consumer tech markets. Month-over-month growth rate plus profit should be greater than or equal to 40. So you can be growing 50% MoM, but burning money with -10% profit, aka costs are greater than your revenue. Or you can be growing 30% MoM, but gaining 10% profit every month. And if you’ve got 10s of 1000s of users, you’re on solid ground. Better yet, one of the biggest expenses is increasing server capacity costs.

For more reference points on ideal consumer startup numbers, check out this blog post I wrote last year.

For enterprise/B2B SaaS, somewhere along the lines of 10-15% MoM growth. With at least 1 key customer logo. And 5 publicly referenceable customers.

Of course, the Rule of 40 did not age well for certain industries in 2020.

When you want advice, ask for money.

When you ask for money most of the time, investors, partners, and potential customers will say no, especially if you’re super early on and don’t have a background or track record as an entrepreneur. So when they do say no, I like to ask them one of my favorite questions: “What do I need to bring you for you to unconditionally say yes?” Then, they’ll tell me what they want to see out of our product or our business. These, especially if they’re reinforced independently across multiple different individuals in your ecosystem, should be your North Star metrics. And when you do put their advice to action, be sure to follow up with the results to their implemented advice.

  1. You either do what they recommended. And show them what happened. And what’s next.
  2. Or you don’t do what they recommended. But show that you heavily considered their recommendation. What you did instead. Why you chose to do what you did instead. And what’s next.

To take it one step further, once I ask the above question to have a reference point for growth trajectory, I ask: “Who is the smartest person(s) known to achieve X (or in Y)?” with X being the answer you got via the previous question. And Y being the industry you’re tackling.

For instance, I’d recommend:

Then, go to that person or those people and say, “Hey Jennifer, [investor name] said if there’s one person I had to talk to about X, I have to talk to you.” Feel free to use my cold email “template” as reference, if you’re unsure of what else to say.

If you use this tactic again and again, eventually you’ll build a family of unofficial (maybe even official) mentors and advisors, even if you never explicitly call them that. Not necessarily asking for money all the time. But asking for money might help you ignite the spark for this positive feedback loop.

In closing

When I was on the operating side, a brilliant founder with 2 multi-million dollar exits once told me: “Always be selling. Always be fundraising. And always be hiring.”

I didn’t really get it then. In fact, I didn’t get it the entire time I was on the other side of the table. What do you mean “Always be fundraising”? Should I just be asking for money all the time? What about the business?

It wasn’t until I made my way into VC at SkyDeck that I realized the depth of his words. Keep people you eventually want to fundraise from and hire in the loop about what you’re building. Keep them excited. Build a relationship beyond something transactional. Build a friendship.

Jeff Bezos put it best when he said:

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.

“At Amazon we like things to work in five to seven years. We’re willing to plant seeds, let them grow and we’re very stubborn. We say we’re stubborn on vision and flexible on details.”

Photo by Frame Harirak on Unsplash

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Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them

As a venture scout and as someone who loves helping pre-seed/seed startups before they get to the A, I get asked this one question more often than I expect. “David, do you think this is a good idea?” Most of the time, admittedly, I don’t know. Why? I’m not the core user. I wouldn’t count myself as an early adopter who could become a power user, outside of pure curiosity. I’m not their customer. To quote Michael Seibel of Y Combinator,

… “customers are the gatekeepers of the startups world.” Then comes the question, if customers are the gatekeepers to the venture world, how do you know if you’re on to something if you’re any one of the below:

  • Pre-product,
  • Pre-traction,
  • And/or pre-revenue?

This blog post isn’t designed to be the crystal ball to all your problems. I have to disappoint. I’m a Muggle without the power of Divination. But instead, let me share 3 mental models that might help a budding founder find idea-market fit. Let’s call it a tracker’s kit that may increase your chances at finding a unicorn.

  1. Frustration
  2. The highly fragmented industry with low NPS
  3. Right on non-consensus
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#unfiltered #31 The Art of Running into Walls – How to Confront Fear and Fear-Setting

Last night, I happened to re-stumble across a sentence in my collection of quotes that caught my eye.

“The greatest pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do.”

– Walter Bagehot
Journalist, businessman, essayist

The founder story

I’ve had this long-standing belief – which if you’re a regular reader of this blog, you’re no stranger to – that founders need to have a personal vendetta when building a business. They must have something to prove or someone they’d want to prove to. Building a business is finding where selfishness meets selflessness. In fact, I’d argue that’s true in every ideal professional career.

The path of entrepreneurship is one where resilience is the floor, not the ceiling. While I understand, it is not the only career path that carries this trait, it is the one I am most familiar with. And having asked 31 people, 18 of which are or have been entrepreneurs, I’ve learned that everyone, despite their job title or background, can be scared in the face of obstacles. Everyone feels fear, myself included. The question is what do we do next, after the feeling of fear enters our heart and mind.

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The Double-Edged Sword of Transparency, when Fundraising

In the venture world, startups have another alias. 10-year overnight successes.

For the majority of the world, we hear about startups through a Thursday morning TechCrunch article or by way of the Friday Happy Hour gossip stream. Well, okay, I’m not being time sensitive. We’re not going out for Friday night happy hours these days. But we might spy something in our social feeds after a startup hits 5 million users or they just raised $50 million from a top-tier venture firm.

And these TC or Forbes or NY Times articles paint these founding CEOs to almost be perfect individuals. Good news. They’re not. They’re human – just like you and me. Over the years, the more I’ve gotten to know these leaders, the more I realized how similar we are. How similar they were when they were where I am today. And even now, how they still feel the unease in the uncertainty in the world. My study last week on how people are living through the pandemic – what inspires them or what frustrates them – further illustrated our similarities. An animator who’s fought against doubt. An executive who lost his grandpa, broke up, and felt lost in the corporate politics. A founder who was forced to make the tough decision of leaving his team. And much more.

What’s that one analogy people use again – to show that everyone is living a life we know nothing about?

A duck, above the surface, perfectly calm and composed. Underwater, furiously paddling to stay afloat.

The double-edged sword

The good news is that most VCs know that founders aren’t perfect human beings. The bad news is the irony. On one hand, they know that founders aren’t perfect and should be willing to be vulnerable. On the other hand, too much vulnerability means that VC’s say, “I’m out.”

In many cases, investors may seem hypocritical. And arguably, there’s a handful of them who don’t even know what they’re looking for themselves. Yet, in most scenarios, the bargaining chip is on the investors’ end. Not with the founders. It’s frustrating. I know. I’ve talked to founders and will continue to talk with founders who feel that way. So, what is that fine line between the showing “perfection” and embracing imperfection?

Making the blade that works for you

When founders ask, this is what I tell them.

  1. Be upfront with your investors if you’re incompetent on an aspect or aspects of the business.
  2. Show them you’re competent… in finding a way to be competent.

Be upfront with your investors if you’re incompetent on an aspect or aspects of the business.

Address the elephant in the room. If you don’t bring it up, they’re bound to ask. Or worse yet, if they don’t ask, it’s going to be gnawing at them in their minds. And may end up being the main contributing factor to a “No”.

Show them you’re competent… in finding a way to be competent.

Early-stage VCs usually take between 2-4 months before they go from “Hi, my name is Buttercup” to “Take my money”. And here are the steps:

  • Coffee chat, aka “Hi, my name is Buttercup” (If you’re wondering why “Buttercup”, there’s a story behind there, but another day. Or if anyone’s dying to know, DM me or ask me in the comments below.)
  • 2nd meeting with same individual partner (maybe a +1)
  • Full partnership meeting
  • Diligence
  • Term sheet, aka “Take my money”

Lesson 1: Don’t skip steps (for the most part). What do I mean? When you’re having a coffee chat, your goal should not be to get a term sheet there. Your goal is should be to get to meeting 2. Think of it like a sales funnel.

Lesson 2: Learn and grow during the time you get to know an investor. Doers > thinkers. Hustle. Be scrappy, resourceful. At each step, the VC(s) are evaluating if you have the acumen, competency, and what Sequoia Capital calls it – a bias towards action.

Let’s analogize with the equation of a line: y = mx +b. We measure a founder’s competency not just at “b”, but a greater emphasis on “m”. And over the course of the time we get to know each other, if a founder can prove that to us. For me, after the first meeting, I usually give a couple pieces of advice. “Oh, you should really talk with Sarah. She’s really good at sales.” Or. “Have you thought about this UX improvement in the user journey?”

What I’m looking for, by the time we have our second meeting, is what have they done in the mean time. And for a great founder, there are 2 possibilities:

  1. They acted on the advice, and they come back with the results.
  2. They heavily considered the piece of advice. Did something else. Explained to me why they did something else. And also share the results of that decision.

In both scenarios, they have new results by the time we meet. They don’t have to be “right”, as if I’m even a person who can evaluate what’s right versus wrong. But they do have to learn fast. Hustlers make mistakes. And through the mistakes, they learn. Fast. It’s a preamble to what working with a VC looks like.

If you’re curious, Chris Moody at Foundry Group has a brilliant 3-part series of why you shouldn’t take money from a VC. In his first reason to not, if you want to build a lifestyle business. Otherwise, you’ve got to learn fast and be scrappy.

Here’s an example of scrappiness

When I was an operator, we were strapped for cash and looking for cash, so we didn’t have much of a budget for marketing and advertising. Admittedly, we also didn’t really know how to market the business. Minus a few theoretical classes, we knew nothing.

We used free student printing (for us up to 10,000 pages) to print out flyers we made by ourselves. Given that our audience included both SMBs and millennial/Gen Z’s looking for jobs, as much as we wanted to flyer to college students at the plaza or in front of local businesses, we knew it wouldn’t be smart. ’Cause everyone else was doing so.

So then it came down to the question: where do people have plenty of attention to spend but have not yet been saturated with information. For us, it was the bathroom. Specifically, in the stalls. When you’re locked inside the bathroom, doing your business, you either look at the door in front of you and/or at your cellphone. And the doors were often blank canvases. So we decided to stick our flyers on the backsides of these stall doors – both in the dorms and in public restrooms, which inevitably got our websites 10s of 1000s of views early on.

That said, the janitorial staff tore down our flyers every night at 11pm. So we had to be back on the streets and sticking in flyers in public and dorm bathrooms every morning at 5am. And it so happens, I once talked to one of the university’s janitorial staff members and he actually said thanks. Since he found his new job via a flyer he kept having to rip off.

As the economist Herbert A. Simon says, “a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” As an entrepreneur, you’re looking for the margins, where there is a poverty of information and a wealth of attention.

In closing

I can only speak from my perspective and what I seek in founders. But having talked and learned from a number of investors who have a track record for returning >5x MOIC (multiple on invested capital), I know I’m not alone.

It’s okay to be vulnerable of the potholes ahead – to not know how to do certain things. We’re human. It’s okay. But show that you have at least have a hypothesis on how to learn those things.

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Myths around Startups and Business Ideas

In a number of recent conversations with friends outside of venture and “aspiring entrepreneurs”, a couple myths, which I’m going to loosely define here as popular beliefs held by many people, were brought to my attention. 4 in particular.

  1. If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.
  2. That idea/startup is over-hyped.
  3. The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.
  4. If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Quite fortuitously, a question on Quora also inspired this post and discussion.

If I have a great idea and build it, it’ll sell itself.

Unfortunately, most times, it won’t. As Reid Hoffman puts it: “A good product with great distribution will almost always beat a great product with poor distribution.” As a founder, you have to think like a salesperson (for enterprise/B2B businesses) or a marketer (for consumer/B2C businesses). People have to know about what you’re building. ’Cause frankly you could build the world’s best time machine in your basement, but if no one knows, it’s just a time machine in your basement. Probably a great story to tell for Hollywood one day (even then you still need people to find out), but not for a business.

That idea/startup is over-hyped.

I’ll be honest. This really isn’t a myth, more of a common saying.

Maybe so, at the cross-section in time in which you’re looking at it. But if you rewind a couple months or a year or 2 years ago, they were under-hyped. In fact, there’s a good chance no one cared. While everyone has a different technical definition of over- and under-hyped, by the numbers, time will tell if it’ll be a sustainable business or not. If it’s keeping north of 40% retention even 6 months after the hype, we’re in for a breadwinner.

Take Zoom, for example. Pre-COVID, if you asked any rational tech investor, “would you invest in Slack or Zoom?” Most would say Slack. Zoom existed, but many weren’t extremely bullish on it. Today, well, that may be a different story. As of this morning (Oct. 12, 2020), while I’m editing this post before the market opens, the stock price of Zoom is $492 (and same change). Approximately 343% higher than it was on March 17th, the first day of the Bay Area shelter-in-place. And, right now, the price of Slack is $31. Approximately 56% up from the beginning of quarantine.

Neither are startups anymore, but the analogy holds. Also, a lesson that predictions, even by experts, can be wrong.

The startup/venture capital landscape is over-saturated.

“There’s too much money being invested (wasted) on startups.”

From the outside, it may very well look that way. Every day, every week we see this startup gets funded for $X million or that startup gets funded for $YY million. According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), $133 billion were invested into startups last year. Yet, it pales in comparison to the capital that’s traded in the public markets.

VC funds see thousands of startup pitches a year. Per partner (most funds 2–3 partners), they each invest in 3–5 per year (aka about once per quarter). Meaning >99% of startups that a single VC sees are not getting funded by them. That doesn’t mean 99% never get funded, but it’s just to illustrate that proportionally, capital isn’t being spent willy-nilly.

If we look at it from a macro-economic perspective, if we are reaching saturation in the startup market, we should be getting closer to perfect competition. And in a perfectly competitive market, profit margins are zero. The thing is profits aren’t nearing zero in the startup/venture capital market. In fact, though the median fund isn’t returning much on invested capital. A good fund is returning 3–5x. A great one >5x. And well, if you were in Chris Sacca’s first fund, which included Uber, Twitter, and more, 250x MOIC. That’s $250 returned on every $1 invested.

If it doesn’t make sense to me, it’s not a good idea.

Finding Product-Market Fit and “Idea-Market Fit”

Revolutionary ideas aren’t meant to conform. If an idea is truly ground-breaking, people have yet to be conditioned to think that a startup idea is great or not. As Andy Rachleff, co-founder of Wealthfront and Benchmark Capital, puts it: “you want to be right on the non-consensus.” Think Uber and Airbnb in 2008. If you asked me to jump in a stranger’s car to go somewhere then, I would have thought you were crazy. Same with living in a stranger’s home. I write more about being right on the non-consensus here and in this blog post.

Frankly, you may not be the target market. You’re not the customer that startup is serving. The constant reminder we, on the venture capital side of the table, have is to stop thinking that we are the core user for a product. Most products are not made for us. Equally, when a founder comes to us pre-traction and asks us “Is this a good idea?”, most of the time I don’t know. The numbers (will) prove if it’s a good idea or not. Unless I am their target audience, I don’t have a lot to weigh in on. I can only check, from least important to most important:

  1. How big is the market + growth rate
  2. Does the founder(s) have a unique insight into the industry that all the other players are overlooking or underestimating or don’t know at all? And will this insight keep incumbents at bay at least until this startup reaches product-market fit?
  3. How obsessed about the problem space is the founder/team, which is a proxy for grit and resilience in the longer run? And obsession is an early sign of (1) their current level of domain expertise/navigating the “idea maze”, and (2) and their potential to gain more expertise. If we take the equation for a line, y = mx + b. As early-stage investors, we invest in “m’s” not “b’s”.

In closing

While I know not everyone echoes these thoughts, hopefully, this post can provide more context to some of the entrepreneurial motions we’re seeing today. Of course, take it all with a grain of salt. I’m an optimist by nature and by function of my job. Just as a VC I respect told me when I first started 4 years back,

“If you’re going to pursue a career in venture, by nature of the job, you have to be an optimist.”

Happened to also be one of the VCs who shared his thoughts for my little research project on inspiration and frustration last week.

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The Biases Entrepreneurs can Carry

backlit beach clouds dark

Last week, I started building a Quora presence. Admittedly, I’ve been a long-time lurker, and only recent answer-er on the platform. Partly to practice sharing thoughts. Partly to answer more specific queries. And partly to have fun. Yes, fun.

It just so happened that I came across a curious question then.

As an entrepreneur, have you found that the cognitive biases (i.e., systematic deviations from rationality that affect human decision-making) described in this article affect the decisions you make for your business?

The question cited this article. And the article itself detailed on 3 of the many cognitive biases entrepreneurs (well, people in general) come across.

  • Confirmation bias – anything we see or hear that supports our own beliefs reinforces our beliefs, whereas the opposite sparks disagreement
  • Sunk cost fallacy – our tendency to continue to hold onto hope for bad investments
  • And, overconfidence – overestimating yourself and underestimating everyone else.

My answer

Simply, yes.

In fact, not just entrepreneurs, but most people are affected by the mentioned cognitive biases – confirmation bias, sunk cost fallacy/loss aversion, and overconfidence. It’s just that many people aren’t aware they have them, which can be detrimental to business, relationships, mental health, and more. I think the article even ranks the 3 from least noticeable to most noticeable from a self-assessment point of view. I’ll give an example of each – all of which I’ve seen before:

Confirmation bias – Stanford engineers are smart. → I will continue hiring Stanford engineers. The flip side is that you’ll be looking less into other populations of engineers who could also be amazing, like folks who are underrepresented and underestimated. Therefore, creating this self-perpetuating loop.

Sunk cost fallacy – I’ve hired this VP Sales that came highly recommended from multiple sources. But over the course of 6 months, I realized that this VP (1) couldn’t meet, much less beat, quota each quarter, and (2) has been unable to hire other great candidates to fulfill quota each quarter. But she will change. She’ll get better. She’ll grow into the role. While it’s okay to hire for passion, make sure candidates have at least a baseline of skills required for the role. And in a VP hire, a good proportion of the job description is hiring. The sunk cost here is the VP hire. While I don’t have to fire her, unless she’s really not doing her job at all, I need to find someone to top her who can perform in the role as fast as possible.

Overconfidence – My product is amazing; all of our competitors’ products suck. I’ve seen this way too often when founders pitch their startup. And while it’s great to be confident in your own product/team/yourself, it should never eclipse your perspective to value the work and commitment and results of others. A question I love asking founders who say “my product is amazing, everyone else is bad” is: What are your competitors doing right? If you were them, what would you say about your own product?

In closing

While these 3 are only a few among the myriad that plague our cognition (i.e. left digit bias, hindsight bias, anchoring bias, fundamental attribution error, etc.), hopefully, this post will shed a little light into the world of our own psychology. Sometimes before we can fix something, we have to first be aware of it.

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How to Identify Market Opportunity and Recognize Market Inefficiencies

round gold colored pocket watch

I was raised a swimmer. From 4 years old, my parents sent me to take swimming classes for 2 primary reasons:

  1. Learn how to not drown.
  2. If we (my parents) are ever going to drown, you’re going to save us.*

*Note: I’d like to point out the irony is that both of parents know how to swim themselves. Not at a competitive stage, but enough to survive from drowning.

Oddly enough, I learned how to swim by drowning. Over the years, like many other children around me, on top of swimming, I also played ball in its various sizes and ran. And I learned that swimming and running are of the 2 purest forms of athleticism and exercise out there. There’s very little margin for error, if any. A tenth of a second is the difference between Olympic gold and not even qualifying for the semifinals. Because of that, in swimming, we’re taught to be efficient. We learned to maximize for our distance per stroke (DPS). And I believe in running, it’s distance per stride.

Efficiency. The ability to do more with less.

The market of efficiency

These days, getting from point A to B isn’t as difficult as it used to be. Cars made travelling miles easier. Planes, for hundreds to thousands of miles. Bikes and scooters, for last mile transportation – distances too close to drive, but take twice as long to walk. Outside of transportation, career development, information and skill acquisition have all seen massive developments not only in the last hundred years, but especially in the last 10 years. Online platforms, like Coursera, Masterclass, Google, and Wikipedia, helped us all shave off months, years, even generations of legwork and information acquisition. They made so many things more accessible.

Accessibility

Accessibility is platformitizing and democratizing information. What Yellow Pages did for services. Reddit for knowledge acquisition. Amazon for shopping. Google for information. And Food Network and food media did for cooks. The average person today is more knowledgeable about the culinary process and its accessories than someone two decades back. Laughable now, but 8 years ago, it’s how I learned not to burn frozen pizza. I could go on and on.

But, in the next ten years, accessibility may not be enough. Though there are many populations in this world who still have yet to access the knowledge I can readily find on my laptop, accessibility provides people with the tools, but not the means to use those tools effectively.

Ease

Ease does. Lower the barriers to entry and bundle the entire knowledge acquisition, or otherwise, what I would call onboarding, in an intuitive manner. Like what WordPress did for websites. Instagram for photos. Opendoor for home-buying/selling. TurboTax for, well, tax.

It’s a messy web of information out there. As economist Herbert A. Simon puts it:

“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”

Here’s an easy way to tell which industries and processes lack ease. Find where people have created hacks to solve a problem.

  • Using multiple tools/software to solve a single problem;
  • Using a “temporary” solution to solve a repetitive problem. Like a basin to catch the rainwater that leaks through the roof;
  • A public forum, like Reddit or a Facebook group or multiple similar questions on Quora, where people share their “life hacks”.
  • A How-to YouTube video that has tens/hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of views.

And to know if you hit the nail on the head, you’ve got crazy pull. Product-market fit. PMF. When you don’t even have the luxury of time to worry if you have PMF ’cause your customer success inbox/sales inbox is filled to the brim. Or you’re getting so many new users that you’re figuring out how to upgrade your servers before your servers go blank. For more on PMF, I highly recommend checking out Lenny Rachitsky‘s recent post surveying 25 of the most successful companies on when they realized they had PMF.

In closing

Tools and platforms that make it easier for an individual to go the distance, to be more efficient, carry 2 traits: accessibility and ease. With each stroke, with each action one takes, they can go further. They can do more. With less. Technology, in the incoming years, will further do so.

And as a VC scout, I look for, what I call – distance per action. Or DPA, for short. So, if you’re working on something that will enable people to have higher and greater DPAs, I wanna talk.

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The Punchline

comedy, the punchline, fundraising, vc

“Hey, y’all wanna hear a joke?” one of my teammates in my lane asks during warm-up. If there was the equivalent of a class clown in the pool, that’d be him.

“Why not?” the rest of us answer, hoping to spice up the impending 2-hour practice.

“So, there’s this guy who’s about to ask this girl out to the school dance. But to do so, he’s gotta ask her out on Valentine’s Day. So the day before, he goes to buy a Valentine’s gram during lunch. Turns out – there’s a long, long line.”

Our coach blows the whistle, and we sprint off. When we touch again, he goes on, “And there’s a separate line to buy the roses. So, he heads over, and turns out – there’s a long, long line.”

Again, the whistle goes off, and upon return, “So, he finishes buying his gram and roses. On the fateful day, she gets it all and says yes. Super excited, the guy prepares for the school dance. First he goes to buy his tux. When he arrives at the tailor-“. He pauses, beckoning us to finish his sentence.

“There’s a long, long line,” we chime in. In the distance we hear, “Lane 1. Stop talking!” Whistle blows, and we go…

And return. “He gets his suit tailored. Now he goes to Office Depot to buy his cue cards and markers to ask her out. But when he gets to the cash register…”

“There’s a long, long line.” And a kickboard comes flying in and smacks two of us in the face. “Quiet!” a distant shout.

“Day of the ask, he assembles all his friends, lines them up for a dramatic prom ask. And what do you know?”

“There’s a long, long line.” Another one of us feels the sting of hard foam across our face.

“The girl says yes. And now, finally the day of the prom arrives, and he picks her up. Together, they take pictures with everyone else, in a-“

“Long, long line.”

“Then they all drive to the destination of prom. But turns out they’re not the first ones there. Ahead-“

“There’s a long, long line.” At this point we were too vested in the joke. Each of us with bruises across our face – just short of our coach dragging us out of the water to discipline us.

“So the boy and girl finally make it into the dance hall, and while they’re waiting for the dance floor to open up, the boy asks us the girl, ‘Can I get you something to drink?’ And she says, ‘Sure.’ So, he goes over to where the fruit punch is. And, turns out…”

“There’s a long, long-“

“Nope, there’s no punch line.”

The bigger picture

I hear so many founders tell me they’re pursuing this billion dollar market. Or even a trillion dollar one with a capital T. And how they plan to capture 10% of this huge market in 5 years. I mean, c’mon, how awesome would 10% of this billion dollar market sound for our returns?

For an investment of anywhere between $1 and $10 million, let’s say $1 million (’cause this is usually something people raising a pre-seed/seed say), 10% of $100B market is $10B. And for the ease of calculation, let’s say by the time the founders exit, we still have 10%, 10% of $10B is $1B. For only $1M invested, $1B is a 1000x return. Wowza!

The true let-down happens when they finally share what their solution is. And it turns out to only address a small fraction of their total addressable market (TAM). Here’s a hypothetical example. A team is tackling a TAM for events of $1.1 trillion (2018 number). They talk about how awesome a CAGR of over 10% is. And how virtual events are the new trend and might accelerate that number even more. I’m thinking, “Hell ya, this’ll be epic.”

Then their product – the punchline… an app that streamlines coffee service at events in 2020. While this may or may not be an exaggeration, many startups find their pitches in a similar format. On one end, as a founder, you want to tackle the biggest market you can – to attract investors hoping to make large returns. On the other end, you want to be realistic with your expectations, as well as your investors’. Often times, it’s a fine line. I get it, which is why I suggest approaching market-sizing from the angle of pragmatic optimism.

The GTM strategy

After you share such a lofty goal, the inevitable question comes along: “What is your go-to-market (GTM) strategy?” The usual answer is some permutation of the below:

  • Google/Facebook/other ads,
  • Get it on the App Store (and/or Play Store),
  • (Pay for) SEO,
  • Hire a C_O (fill in the blank)
  • Hire a growth hacker,
  • Or more engineers, or for that matter, anyone,
  • We were hoping you (the investor) could help us with that, once you fund us. 🙁

But who are we kidding? No one. While none of the above answers are unilaterally incorrect, all the above show characteristics of someone who isn’t a hustler, who isn’t scrappy, and who probably isn’t one to scale a business. A pitch deck is designed to be short. I get it. There’s a lot you can’t fit on to it. But I’m not alone when I say this, we want to see the why and the how behind the what. A bit of Simon Sinek‘s two cents – start with why.

  • Why are you hiring more people? To do what?
  • Why did you choose Google over Facebook ads? Over Reddit, Instagram, Tiktok, you-name-it ads? Over traditional billboards?
  • What is the end goal?
  • What is the core metric you’re optimizing for? In the near term? In the long term? Before your next fundraise?

Just to be clear, just because a founder approaches market analysis from a top-down approach doesn’t instantly disqualify him/her. But it is a red flag. That’s why I’m a huge proponent of bottoms-up market-sizing.

Bottoms-up… and Cheers!

How many customers do you plan to have by the end of this year? By the end of next year? The year after?

How much do you plan to sell your product/service for? How will customer acquisition cost (CAC) get cheaper over the next few years? What will you need to do for CAC to get cheaper?

Eventually, you build out this road map of what the next few quarters and years will look like. You, effectively, plot out, here are the next few milestones we need to hit as a team. And those milestones are quantifiable and actionable – a clear sense of direction for your team and for your investors. Of course, as any road map goes, all subject to change depending on the situation.

In closing

Just like a great joke, you, the founder, need to be capable of delivering the punchline in your pitch deck. The build-up is the problem in the market and the world-class team you’ve assembled, as well as why it means so much to you. The punchline is the solution you’re building. Always, make sure your punchline delivers.

  1. It’s relevant to the rest of the (comedic) routine.
  2. When it hits , it’s at the minimum, satisfying, as a climax. At the maximum, like a world-class punch, it knocks the wind out of your audience.

In the words of Robert McKee, a Fullbright Scholar who’s coached over 60 Academy Award winners, 170 Emmy recipients, among numerous others,

“At story climax, you must deliver a scene beyond which the audience can imagine no other.”

Your punchline, your product, by the time you deliver your pitch’s climax, must deliver a utopia beyond which your investors can imagine no other.

Photo by Ben White on Unsplash

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A Startup Hiring Philosophy

There’s a saying in venture that: “A-players hire A-players; B-players hire C-players.” Your ability to grow a business is often closely correlated with your ability to attract and acquire talent. But what does it mean to attract and hire world-class talent? Especially for functions you, as a founder, yourself may not be an expert in.

“A-players hire A-players;
B-players hire C-players.”

How does a first-time founder how to vet a seasoned sales executive? Or on the flip side, how does a non-technical founder learn to differentiate a good AI engineer from a great AI engineer?

While even the best founders, leaders, and managers make hiring mistakes, hopefully this post can act as a reference point as to what to look for. And while I have yet to master the craft, I’ll borrow 5 lessons from some of the best that has served as a guiding principle for me and for some of the founders I’ve worked with.

5 Lessons from 4 of the Greatest

  1. Hire passion; train skill.
  2. Desire/obsession > passion.
    • And, the ephemeral nature of passion.
  3. Hire VPs who can hire.
  4. Attract and hire intentionally.
    • On building trust.
    • On scaling yourself.
  5. To hire your best complements, ask people in your network 2 questions.
    • Who to ask? And what’s next?
Continue reading “A Startup Hiring Philosophy”
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#unfiltered #27 The Impetus of My Social Experiments – Higher Research and the Application to Startups

bunny, egg, curiosity, curious, social experiments

People seem to love origin stories – both in theatre and in life.

“How did it all start?”

“How did you get into this career?”

Or…

“How did you meet your wife/husband?”

And well, I can’t say I’m one to push back on that.

There’s something truly magical about “Once upon a time…”. And I’m no stranger to fairy tales. Growing up, I was largely influenced by older female cousins and family friends. As soon as our parents left to their wine-sipping adult gossip around a table of blackjack, my cousins and older female friends would drag us to watch their favorite Disney movies on the VCR, namely princess movies. I’m not exaggerating when I say I’ve seen Beauty and the Beast more than 100 times or Cinderella more than 50 times. In fact, my friends in elementary school would talk about their favorite movies – Transformers, LEGO Bionicles, Peter Pan, and Tarzan. Yet, mine was Disney’s 1998 Mulan.

And they all started with “Once upon a time…”

So, it was no surprise when friends, colleagues, and then strangers started asking me:

“How/when/why did you start hosting social experiments?”

Continue reading “#unfiltered #27 The Impetus of My Social Experiments – Higher Research and the Application to Startups”
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