A Telltale Sign for a “VC No”

telltale sign, conviction, leap of faith, how to find a lead investor

Three moons ago, I jumped on a call with a founder who was in the throes of fundraising and had half of his round “committed”. And yes, he used air quotes. So, as any natural inquisitive, I got curious as to what he meant by “committed”. Turns out, he could only get those term sheets if he either found a lead or could raise the other half successfully first. Unfortunately, he’s not the only one out there. These kinds of conversations with investors have been the case, even before COVID. But it’s become more prevalent as many investors are more cautious with their cash. And frankly, a way of de-risking yourself is to not take the risk until someone else does.

I will say there are many funds out there where as part of the fund’s thesis, they just don’t lead rounds. But your first partner… you want them to have conviction.

Just like, no diet is going to stop me from having my mint chocolate chip with Girl Scout Thin Mints, served on a sugar cone. I’m salivating just thinking about it, as the heat wave is about to hit the Bay. An investor who has conviction will not let smaller discrepancies, including, but not limited to:

  • Crowded cap table,
  • No CTO,
  • College/high school dropout,
  • Lower than expected MRR or ARR,
  • No ex-[insert big tech company] team members,
  • Or, no senior/experienced team members,

… stop them from opening their checkbook. And just like I’ll find ways to hedge my diet outlier, through exercise or eating more veggies, an investor will find ways to hedge their bets, through their network (hiring, advisors, co-investors, downstream investors), resources, and experience.

So, what is that telltale sign of a lack of conviction?

I will preface by first saying, that the more you put yourself in front of investors, the more you’ll be able to develop an intuition of who’s likely to be onboard and who’s likely not to. For example, taking longer than 24 hours to respond to your thank you/next steps email after that pitch meeting. Or, on the other end, calling someone “you have to meet” mid-meeting and putting you on the line.

It seems obvious in retrospect, but once upon a time, when I was fundraising, I just didn’t let myself believe it was true. That investors just won’t have conviction when they ask:

Who else is interested?

A close cousin includes “Who else have you talked to?” (And what did they say?). If their decision is contingent – either consciously or subconsciously – with benchmarking their decision on who else is going to participate (or lead), you’re not talking to a lead (investor). And that initial hesitation, if allowed manifest further, won’t do you much good in the longer run, especially when things get bumpy for the company. Robert De Niro once said, in the 1998 Ronin film,

“Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt.”

You want investors who have conviction in your business – in you. Who’ll believe in you through thick and thin. After all, it’s a long-term marriage. Admittedly, it takes time and diligence to understand what kind of investor they are.

In closing

Like all matters, there are always other confounding and hidden variables. And though no “sign” is your silver bullet for understanding an investor’s conviction. Hopefully, this is another tool you can use from your multi-faceted toolkit.

From spending time with some of the smartest folks on both sides of the table and from personal observations, even if it’s anecdotal, the sample size should be significant enough to put weight behind the hypothesis. And, if I ever find myself wanting to ask that question, I aim to be candid, and tell founders that I’m not interested.

Photo by Manuel Meurisse on Unsplash


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An Underappreciated Way to Get a VC’s Attention

message, fundraising, investor list, how to get a VC's attention

It’s been a trying time for founders to fundraise in these turbulent times. On one end, you have investors who took a U-turn on plans to invest this year. On the other, you have investors still deploying or looking to deploy capital. The latter further breaks down into: (a) investors who are taking more calculated bets – raising the bar for the kind of startup that gets the capital, and (b) investors who find the opportunity to invest in the down markets. The latter cohort of the latter cohort seems to hold truer at and prior to the pre-seed stages among microfunds and angel groups.

The Tightening of the Market

Disregarding the investors who aren’t deploying capital anymore, it’s been harder than ever to raise. Here’s why:

  1. Anecdotally, more startups are looking to fundraise. Many have pushed up their fundraising schedules.
  2. The standard is much higher now than before. And that includes a stronger consideration for the problem you’re addressing. Is it anti-fragile? Is it recession-proof? If your numbers are down now, will they eventually ‘flip’ back on track post-quarantine?
  3. Valuations are taking a hit. Where before your startup may have been overvalued (especially in Silicon Valley), many startups are facing “more realistic” round sizes. And flat or down rounds are more prevalent.
  4. When investors can’t meet founders in-person, they’re resorting to data, data, data. Investors no longer have the luxury to benchmark a gut check over Zoom/email, as they would have in noticing micro-gestures and other situational context clues. Anecdotally, investors are spending much more time and putting much more weight on diligence than before.

And, that’s why founders, more than ever, should (re)consider fundraising strategies. This was something that I learned when I was on the operating side and at one point, working on the fundraising front for Localwise.

Much like when high school students apply for college, founders should have a three-tiered list – SMR, as I like to call it:

  • Safety,
  • Meet,
  • And, reach.

Safety

Safety investors are those that are definitely going to take the meeting. And will most likely invest in you (i.e. at the idea stage, this mostly comprises of family, friends, and colleagues, maybe even early fans via crowdfunding). Admittedly, they can only contribute small sums of money. Each check also carry little to no strategic weight on the cap table.

Meet

Meet investors are investors that will most likely take the first meeting, but you’ll need to do a little leg work to get them to invest. Many of these will most likely stick to being participants than leads in any round. They carry some strategic weight on the cap table – in the capacity of their network, their brand, or advice.

Reach

Your reach investors will be your greatest sponsors. The people who have the highest potential to get you hitting the ground running. These folks usually have crowded inboxes already. And you’ll need to figure out how to best reach them. Unless they reach out to you, you will most likely fall just short of their gold standard. But once you stget these onboard, your relationship will set you up for reaching your next milestone better than any other individual partnership. At the same time, they will be the ones who are most likely going to have true conviction behind your product, your market insight, and your team. They typically lead rounds, and carry great strategic value to your startup (i.e. top tier investors, SMEs, product leaders in your respective vertical). For lack of better words, your ‘dream girl’ or ‘guy’.

Your Priorities

When pitching (and practicing your pitch), go for a bottom-up approach. Safety, then meet, then finally reach. And ideally, by the time you’re pitching to your ‘dream girl’ or ‘guy’, you’d have refined your pitch that best fits their palate.

When prioritizing time and effort, go top-down. Since you have limited bandwidth, spend the most time doing diligence on your reach investors. Then meet. And if you still have time, safety.

Diligence and Reaching Out

During your diligence process, look at their team, their individual and collective experience. Is their partnership, especially the checkwriters, diverse? Were they former operators? Or career VCs? And based on what they have, what do you, as a founder, need the most right now? Also, to better understand the marriage you’ll be getting in to, talk to their portfolio startups and investors that have worked with them before. Pay special attention to the the venture bets that didn’t work out. Was there a break up? If there was, what was it like? How did the investor help them navigate tough times?

It’s easy to be positive and cohesive when things are working out, but how does that investor react when things aren’t going as expected?

After talking to the (ex-)portfolio founders, if you feel like they have a good grasp on what you’re working on and are excited for you, ask them for an intro. Focus on those founders who have gone through the idea maze in your respective vertical, or an adjacent one. If you’re defining a new vertical, or that investor has just never invested in your vertical, but has expressed public interest of pursuing investments in yours, ask founders who have the same or a similar business model to yours. After all, that’s going to be the kind of solid warm intro you want.

In Closing

Though there are other ways to get in front of investors (some more questionable and/or gutsy than others), including, but not limited to:

  • Warm intros from friend/mutualLinkedIn connection,
  • Cold email/DM,
  • Reaching out to a more junior team member (scout/analyst/associate/principal),
  • Presenting at accelerator/incubator Demo Days,
  • Presenting at a hot conference, like TC Disrupt or SXSW,
  • Volunteering at the same non-profit as them,
  • Auditing their lecture at Stanford,
  • Or, squeezing into their elevator (although most VC offices are pretty lateral)…

… anecdotally, it seems many founders overlook the means of getting an intro from a VC’s portfolio.

Photo by Marvinton from Pixabay


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Asking for Mentorship

asking for mentorship

Don’t.

… would be my short answer.

The longer answer… I’ll start with a story.

My First Mentor

This is embarrassing to admit, but 6 years ago, I barely knew what a resume was. As a hint of my ignorance, my first ‘resume’ was 3 pages long, double-spaced, and included two lines explaining a babysitting license I got back in middle school. So, within 10 seconds of it going up, I signed up for the resume workshop. In my hurry, I signed up for the first spot with the first “critique-er” I saw.

When the fateful day arrived, he didn’t show up at our appointed time. After waiting 15 minutes and asking the workshop leads, it turned out he was stuck in the depths of traffic.

But hell, I wasn’t going to go home empty-handed. So, I went around the bustling room, catching each “critique-er” there whenever they had a break, to ask them to look over my sad excuse of a resume. By the end of the two-hour workshop, I had taken notes about the flaws of my resume from every alumni there – half of whom ran through various interview questions with me – except for one. The one I had initially signed up with.

After hearing gossip and rumors from the alumni of how brutally honest he was, I had to meet this mysterious fellow. Eventually, he arrived. And luckily, the alumni invited me to join them for a late dinner. And that night, he left me with one sentence: “If you want my advice, you better take it seriously.” Not in the sense that I need to follow exactly what he tells me, but that I won’t hear then forget it the next morning.

Over the years, I’ve truly appreciated the analytical mind he brought to temper my creative mind. His advice saved my neck saved my neck at multiple crossroads of my career. He was able see around the corner when I couldn’t – a tactical mentor. Though I didn’t use his advice every single time, I always came back to him with the post-mortem.

  • How did I use his advice?
  • If I did, what was its impact?
  • If I didn’t, what was my internal calculus for choosing so?

He never pressured me to use his advice, nor did he ask that I report back to him each time. But I did. Over the years, I’ve been there for his highs and lows, just like he has been there for mine. Before we became mentor and mentee, we realized we had become friends. Ironically, to this day, he still hasn’t seen my resume.

The Bigger Picture

You might call it availability bias, but over the 6 years since then, I’ve reached out to many people – punching above my weight class, inspired to seek mentorship. But out of all the 20+ people that I asked for mentorship on the get-go, not a single one was willing to take on the responsibility for a stranger. And rightly so. Like any other relationship, mentorship requires time and commitment. Without any precedence, it’s hard to make that decision with asymmetric information.

The Venture Parallel

Even as investors, who notoriously have to be willing to not only mentor others through “just a pitch”, but also commit dollars to where their mouth is at, each round of startup funding takes at least 60-90 days of diligence and working together, before we invest. Our goal is to be ‘the best dollar on your cap table‘.

In a literal sense, a dollar is a dollar. Whether you get it from your parents as an allowance when you were 7 years old or from your managerial salary at 27 years old, it’s the same. But, in venture, there’s ‘dumb money’ – money in its most literal sense. And there’s ‘smart money’ – money that comes with advice, resources, social and professional networks, and help.

In most cases, an early-stage founder wants ‘smart money’. In that frame of mind, you want the investor(s) that have the best networks, the best resources, the best expertise, and possibly, the best brand, at your stage of a business. So your pitch should be hyper-specific. As with any ask in the world, nothing is ever guaranteed. But, to increase your chances of a “yes”, the best founders build that relationship before they need to fundraise.

Circling Back

For any other person out there, whose day job isn’t to take measured capital risk, you’ll have to work even harder to convince someone to take that leap of faith with you.

When you ask for mentorship, or advice, in general, follow through with it. Make it known that it is valued. And, show your progress after having tried it out. No person speaks hoping to reach deaf ears. So, if you don’t think you’ll have the mental and physical bandwidth to turn advice into action, don’t ask for advice. And definitely, don’t ask for mentorship. It’s not worth your time or theirs.

As a footnote to myself and to others who may be seeking advice, even with this mindset, there’s no silver bullet. Be curious. Be mindful. And, be creative. My favorite creative ‘ask’ so far is “I will pay you to work for you”.

And to my first mentor, Happy Birthday!

Photo by Juan Pablo Rodriguez on Unsplash


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The Myth of the 30-Second Elevator Pitch

I’m not the biggest fan of the 30-second elevator pitch. Although I do believe it has its merits in the art of being concise – to be able to take a complex subject, be it a person or a project, and succinctly describe it for your respective audience, I trust the art of storytelling more.

The elevator pitch is designed to be the appetizer before the entrée, but what I find more valuable is the entrée itself, which, unless you’re at a 20-course Michelin-starred meal, aren’t short. I have rarely seen a deal close on an elevator pitch, much like I haven’t seen or heard of two people become best friends on a “Tell me about yourself.” Elevator pitches, like teaser trailers, are designed to have certain words or phrases click with the one(s) you’re pitching to, and, at some point, becomes too “templated” to connect on an emotional, more-human level. Earlier this month, I recall Robert McKee, one of the most respected screenwriting lecturers out there and a FullBright Scholar, writing about the dichotomy between film and TV in his newsletter, which is analogous to the differential between pitches and an in-depth coffee chat:

“Long-form writers have the power to reveal character complexity and depths of humanity no medium has ever delivered in history.”

Similarly, in my experience, through having a conversation about one’s inflection points in life, I can better understand someone’s depth of character and scars. For example, I love to ask founders: “How did this idea come to be?” Like I alluded to in my piece about my thesis, founders who are obsessed about the idea have a personal vendetta against the problem. They use “I’s” and “we’s”, whereas others who haven’t seen the blood, sweat and tears firsthand would often reference the numbers and speak in large, more abstract scopes. Outside of founders, especially those in fundraising mode, who have practiced knowingly or unwittingly the same responses over and over from meeting with investors, people, who have been in the trenches, often have a less well-rehearsed response to such questions – more scrappy, but much more detailed.

Just the other day, I read a brilliant response to a Quora question on “As a VC, how do you know an entrepreneur has ‘grit’?” that summarizes a quick calculus that differentiates the entrepreneurs from the “wantrapreneurs.” The answer in two words: specificity and compassion – two things which, unfortunately, most elevator pitches don’t cover.