Category: Ideas/Creativity

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Predictions Are Popular

Predictions are in season. It started back during the holidays. A number of my friends, colleagues and folks online have been making predictions of what is going to happen this year. And I’m sure some are sure to hit. Many to miss. Since I’ve been reasonably active on Quora and given my role in the startup community, many people have asked me: “What are some of the best startup ideas to start in 2021? In 2022?”

Over the past year, the pandemic became a forcing function for late majorities and laggards of the adoption curve to pick up newer social and technological trends. Subsequently, accelerating many timelines. Timelines that would have otherwise been realized two, three, maybe even five years out.

  • Social is back.
    • Consumer social has been back. The pandemic has saved on average 2-3 hours of travel time per day for the average worker, job-permitting. At the same time, quarantining has reduced, if not eliminated, many in-person interactions with friends. More time means people seek to find more places to place their attention.
    • Enterprise social is here. The pandemic has forced many businesses to go remote. Similarly, there’s been a migration away from metropolitan/urban areas to save on rent, as well as an opportunity to not be shackled by geography in the past few months. Now, as well as “post-pandemic”, businesses, as well as individuals, are looking for new ways to improve efficacy, communication, and culture at work. In efforts to both retain and attract talent.
  • Impact-driven and socially-responsible businesses are hot.
  • Diversity in the board room is gaining traction. And it’s created ripple effects in the financial world. LPs are demanding venture funds to invest in diverse founders. At the same time, when diverse founders consider which investors to bring on, they look at if the checkwriters at the firm are diverse. Some investors have acted proactively; some reactively. Nevertheless, the cogs are moving.
  • E-commerce, entertainment, streaming, gaming, remote tools, edtech are all up.
  • SPACs and 2020’s string of IPOs have created many “overnight” millionaires.
  • Investing in the stock market, in alternative assets, in syndicates, and more mean more capital is being recycled back into the economy at various stages.
  • There is more capital available at the early stages. New angels. More startups. Just like pre-seed/seed is the Series A from a decade ago, more institutional investors will move upstream. Who knows, there may be a pre-pre-pre-seed round one day.
  • Innovation around the home office space is building momentum.
  • Unsurprisingly, Zoom fatigue is real, which will only led a hand in hybrid work-life models post-pandemic. Equally so, innovation around virtual meetings is only a matter of time.
  • Oculus brought down the price of a VR headset to be as much as a video game console, which means more people can and will adopt VR. Leading to larger markets and more diverse consumers for VR/AR. More startups.
  • Mental health has taken center stage, where it had previously been overlooked or disregarded.

When will the pandemic end? I don’t know.

When will we get vaccines? While experts have given us an expected date, I also don’t know.

When will “normal” return? I’m willing to bet it’s on the magnitude of years rather than months. Then again, will “normal” ever return? I might be completely wrong, but I’m willing to bet the “normal” we knew will never return. But instead, we’ll have a normal 2.0.

In truth, I can only answer what I see in my very narrow periphery. And by definition, there are a hundred-fold more that are in my blind side. And the thing is, what I’ve thought of I guarantee many other founders have already seen, tried, or are trying. What I’m looking for this year, and every year, is what I haven’t thought of yet. But when I hear and see it, it’ll click. Everything I know will make sense.

Investors are lagging indicators of innovation.

Founders are the leading indicators. Listen to them.

Photo by Nathan Anderson on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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2020 Year in Review

I’ve written 102 essays on this blog in the past year, plus some change, spending an average of 1-2 hours per piece and a range from 30 minutes to 2 weeks. An average of 1,200 words per post. While not mutually exclusive, over half of which were on startup topics. One in three described the venture capital landscape. 36 (excluding #0) #unfiltered blog posts, where I share my raw, unfiltered thoughts about anything and everything. 16 on mental health. A surprising 13 on cold emails and its respective ecosystem. And my first public book review. Some didn’t age well, like The Marketplace of Startups. Some will stay evergreen.

25% of my blog posts I started writing at least 48 hours before the publish date. 1 in every 3 (-ish) of the afore-mentioned, I rewrote because I didn’t like the flow. For every 2 essays I wrote, 1 of which I had to wrestle deeply with the thought of imperfection. In effect, half of my essays were a practice to overcome my own mental stigma of “writer’s block.” Yet after over a year of writing, I realize that I’ve become prouder of my writing than when I started.

So, as the year is transitioning into the next, I thought I’d take some time to reflect on my growth 100 (+2) posts after starting this blog. Let’s call them superlatives.

Top 10 most popular

Ranked by total views per post, the 10 posts readers visit the most.

  1. #unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty – I asked 31 people I deeply respect to share some of their greatest drivers and darkest moments in life and how they got through them. You can find part 2 here with 10 more thoughts.
  2. My Cold Email “Template” – My friends have asked me for years what I write in my cold emails, and now, what and how I write my cold outreaches are available for your toolkit.
  3. Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them – An essay on the parameters and the mental models investors use to find “unicorn” startup ideas.
  4. When Investor Goodwill Backfires – What It Means to be Founder-Friendly and Founder-Investor Fit – How founders can do investor diligence before signing the term sheet and also how to best manage founder-investor dynamics
  5. #unfiltered #24 How long do you take to prepare for a talk? – A Study about Time Allocation
  6. How to Build Fast and Not Break (As Many) Things – A Startup GTM Playbook
  7. 10 Letters of Thanks to 10 People who Changed my Life – Every holiday season I write thank you letters to the people I deeply respect. It’s one of the best times of the year to reconnect. These are the letters I wrote in 2019. Here are also some I wrote this year for more context.
  8. #unfiltered #18 Naivety vs Curiosity – Asking Questions, How to Preface ‘Dumb’ Questions, Tactics from People Smarter than Me, The Questions during Founder-Investor Pitch
  9. #unfiltered #11 What I Learned About Building Communities through Social Experiments – Touching Jellyfish, Types of Social Experiments, The Thesis, Psychological Safety and Fairness
  10. The Marketplace of Startups – While many of the remarks on this blog post are now obsolete, largely incited by the 2020 Black Swan event – COVID, the two questions at the end of the blog post are the two I still like to ask founders today.

Personal favorites

While not every one of these got the limelight I had hoped, each of these are ones I felt great pride in being able to write on.

Most challenging to write

I had been wrestling with how vulnerable I can allow myself to be in the public space. Writing this post was frightening, but I’m glad I did. It cascaded into deeper conversations with my friends, colleagues and readers, but also inspired more blog posts after this about mental health.

#unfiltered #26 Am I At My Best Right Now?

In closing

I first started this blog with the intention of chronicling my own learnings in the amazing world of venture. While I couldn’t guarantee it would be helpful to every individual reading my humble meandering, I could, at least, guarantee what I write has been or continues to be instructive for me.

Within the first month it had evolved into an FAQ and a means to provide value to as many founders as I can when one day the number of people I want to help exceed my available bandwidth. Wishful thinking at the time, but a cause that inspired me forward. After the first six months, with the introduction of the #unfiltered series, I began to write to think – a way to flush out simple, unrefined ideas to more robust concepts. While I’ll forever be a work in progress, I began to make new dendrite connections that never existed before. In a way, I was and am still chronicling my own journey in hopes that it will continue to guide people beyond my immediate sphere of influence.

Thank you, each and every one of you, for accompanying me on this journey we took yesterday and the one we’ll take tomorrow. And I hope this cognitive passport will continue to serve as your cup o’ Zhou (/joe/) weekly.

Cheers, and I’m excited for the adventure ahead!

Photo by Ray Hennessy on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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#unfiltered #34 The Impetus to Cup of Zhou

It was a warm autumn 7pm. The golden ball had just found its home beyond the rolling hills of San Francisco. The sky above, dyed violet melting into a soft pink. I was walking up to Liholiho Yacht Club. According to my pal, the best spot in town for Hawaiian food. A 7:30 reservation for our quarterly mentor-mentee dinner.

As I was walking up from SOMA, I was running through the conversation I just had with a founder. He closed the conversation off with: “You should really share this advice publicly.” He was right. ‘Cause in my 3 years in venture capital, I’ve shared that same piece of advice I gave him more than 50 times at that point. I’d been meaning to. I had 11 blog posts written already, just not published. All written in an FAQ format. Yet, the only thing I was still wrestling with was the name of the blog.

It seems trivial in the grander scheme of things. But the perfectionist, inspired by my younger career in art, kept nagging me.

Reality on Ice (ROI). Nah, that wasn’t it. Sounds like a Disney ice show.

Irrogueular. Nah, too eccentric.

David’s blog. Mhmm, talk about uninspired.

Curiosity. Oooh, I like this one, but (1) it’s taken, and (2) doesn’t feel deep enough.

And 80 more where those came from. But none clicked.

Anxious, once again, I began ideating as I bobbed and weaved between the evening crowds. Yet to no avail by the time I reached Liholiho.

Dinner was great as per the usual. My mentor had just joined a new startup, leading a new initiative. We talked work. Life. Athletic endeavors. Romance. And of course, food. It came to no surprise when we two hungry bears needed more to satiate our appetite despite a wonderful meal. After we were “Yelping” places to go to, which we probably flipped through a dozen or two, we gave up.

“David, let’s just grab a cup o’ Joe, and call it a night. Wanna go to-“

“Wait. That’s it!”

“What’s ‘it’?”

“Coffee.”

“That’s what I said.”

“No, no, no… for my blog. The name. My job is to grab coffee with folks. And at the same time, just like caffeine kickstarting all of our days, hopefully my blog can help founders kickstart their startup.”

I ended up scrapping 10 of my 11 blog posts. The only one I kept was my thesis. And I started anew. I spent 3 months ideating a name. 3 years, if you count all the random other WordPress blogs I started. But all it took for me was a moment – a spark. The closest thing I could analogize, at that point, to gut feeling.

Afterword

Oddly enough, this past week, three people independently asked me why this blog is called Cup of Zhou. One pronounced it “cup of zow” (like cow). Another pronounced it “cup of zoo”. The last was over text. I don’t blame them. They’re not the first, and they’re definitely not the last. I respond to them all. They’re all part of my American-born Chinese identity’s memoir. And this blog is just another chapter in my memoir.

Cup of Zhou. /cup uh Joe/

Photo by Demi DeHerrera on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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#unfiltered #33 Inspiration and Frustration Pt. 2 – What Drives Some of the Most Resilient People Forward

A few weeks ago, I published Part 1 of this post on inspiration and frustration. In that time, its reception has been uplifting. Easily my most popular and well-received blog post to date. It also happens to be one of my favorite posts to have published so far. So, I thought I’d continue to ask people about their cocktail of emotions now, the below two questions:

  1. What is the one thing that inspires you so much that it makes everything else in life much easier to bear?
  2. What is stressing/frustrating you so much right now that it seems to invalidate everything else you’re doing?

But, each person can only choose one of the above two questions to answer.

Three of the below candid responses are people I asked from the first cohort, while the other eight are people I thought would add a new degree of freedom on perspective. All of which were drawn more to their inspiration than their frustration.

And as such…

  1. It takes a lot of things to inspire and motivate… rather than one individual thing. – Model, writer, founder
  2. I’m inspired to have a hand in making the world better for everyone through technological progress! – Venture capitalist
  3. I’ve made friends with a girl from my neighborhood grocery store and a stranger opened a door wide for me so I could run towards the train and not miss it. – Founding partner/CEO, investor, community manager
  4. When you start to understand that life is bigger than just you and me, there’s a shift in perspective that brings meaning and purpose to our lives. – Zynara Ng, public speaking coach, video producer, TED speaker
  5. We have the means to weather our current circumstances. – Business professor, consultant
  6. We have struggled to find an extremely valuable and painful problem to start with. Nevertheless, someone will figure it out. Why not me? – Startup founder
  7. We just got a new addition to our family. […] I look forward to future conversations about life and deep topics with him, just like this one! – Startup founder, podcast host
  8. We just tend to judge ourselves more harshly because we have our entire past and lived traumas that we judge ourselves by. – Senior policy aide
  9. Their thank you letters, pictures, and stories of how Vinder has changed or saved their business/life solidifies to me that I’m on the right path. – Sam Lillie, startup founder, hiker
  10. Since this goal is so long term and grand, it’s easy to realize that small things don’t matter. – Sohum Thakkar, engineer
  11. In a world that falls short of showing us unconditional love, I can live my life in such a way that I can be that source of acceptance that others need. – Engineer, writer
Continue reading “#unfiltered #33 Inspiration and Frustration Pt. 2 – What Drives Some of the Most Resilient People Forward”
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#unfiltered #32 How to Win Even When You Lose

Two and a half weeks ago, I wrote about my mental model for confronting fear – the art of running into walls. Inevitably, I’ve had more conversations about fears and how to overcome them since then. And in those moments, I was reminded of a question Seth Godin posed on his recent appearance on The Tim Ferriss Show. Most people ask the question: “What would you do if you could not fail?” And subsequent answers led to wild dreams, achieving the impossible, and often times, still not a step closer to achieving that dream, myself included. I wanted to be an astronaut, a pilot, an Olympic medalist, and more. Instead, Seth posed the counter: “What would you do if you knew you would fail?“

Knowing that I’d fail

Seth cites that most marathoners competing in the Boston Marathon do not aim to win, yet they still do it. Similarly, I work with founders knowing that most will fall short of their dreams. If we’re talking about expected value – the sum of all the dollar size outcomes of each possibility, multiplied with their respective probability of occurring, then:

E(Vstartup success) << E(Vmost other career paths)

Rationally speaking, the career of a founder is not designed for success. But hell, it’s the irrational founders who do find it. Against impossible odds.

But why?

Why still pursue a career when the odds aren’t ever stacked in your favor?

On the same token, why participate in any contest if you know you’re most likely going to fail? And, I mean contest in the most liberal sense here. Just like a marathon is a contest of endurance and physical prowess, building a startup is a contest of capital, time, and social impact. Confessing to your crush is a contest of love. Sending a cold email is a contest of attention. The more saturated the market – the contest – the more likely you are to fail.

How to Win

In winning, I focus on only one question: What will I gain in this pursuit that’s independent of the result of the contest?

Running a marathon proves that I can push my body beyond its limits.

Confessing to my crush gives me resolution to move on in my life.

Sending a cold email hones my communication and research skills.

I work with startups to build friendships and acquire skills that will transcend the dollar value of the venture. People who are ambitious typically learn fast, and will try again and again until something works. If not this idea, then the next. If not today, then tomorrow. And, if not tomorrow, then the day after. It’ll only be a matter of time before preparation meets opportunity. It’s why we call startups 10-year overnight successes.

So when I take on a new endeavor even outside the exciting world of venture, I look for where there will be a net positive in my life and the world around me, on 3 fronts:

  1. The relationships/friendships I will build along the way,
  2. The skillset I will develop and/or hone,
  3. And the impact the process will have in the lives of other people, particularly my friends and family.

If the above function has a positive first and second derivative, then I know I will win even if I lose.

Photo by Johann Walter Bantz on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

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Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them

As a venture scout and as someone who loves helping pre-seed/seed startups before they get to the A, I get asked this one question more often than I expect. “David, do you think this is a good idea?” Most of the time, admittedly, I don’t know. Why? I’m not the core user. I wouldn’t count myself as an early adopter who could become a power user, outside of pure curiosity. I’m not their customer. To quote Michael Seibel of Y Combinator,

… “customers are the gatekeepers of the startups world.” Then comes the question, if customers are the gatekeepers to the venture world, how do you know if you’re on to something if you’re any one of the below:

  • Pre-product,
  • Pre-traction,
  • And/or pre-revenue?

This blog post isn’t designed to be the crystal ball to all your problems. I have to disappoint. I’m a Muggle without the power of Divination. But instead, let me share 3 mental models that might help a budding founder find idea-market fit. Let’s call it a tracker’s kit that may increase your chances at finding a unicorn.

  1. Frustration
  2. The highly fragmented industry with low NPS
  3. Right on non-consensus
Continue reading “Fantastic Unicorns and Where to Find Them”
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#unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty

A few weeks ago, around the time I published Am I At My Best Right Now?, I started noticing more and more that my friends, colleagues, and people that I’ve met since were going through tough times. Two lost a family member. Some were laid off. Two were forced to leave this land I call home. Four broke up. Three burned out. Countless more told me they were stressed and/or depressed, and didn’t know how to escape this limbo. After I published that post, another handful of people also reached out and courageously shared the troubles they are going through now. How it’s been so hard to share with others. And yesterday, while editing this blog post, I found out that one of my high school friends had passed.

Inspiration and Frustration

During this time, I had a thought: Frustration is the absence of inspiration. There were many times in my own life when I was beating myself up because I couldn’t think of a solution. And a small percent of those times, I didn’t even bother to think of a solution since I was so engrossed in my frustration with myself.

In these unprecedented times and inspired by the conversations around me, I decided to show that we’re not alone. So, I asked people who I deeply respect and who could shed light as to what it means to be human. I asked just two questions, but they were only allowed to answer one of them:

  1. What is the one thing that inspires you so much that it makes everything else in life much easier to bear?
  2. What is stressing/frustrating you so much right now that it seems to invalidate everything else you’re doing?

In turn, they responded via email, text, or on a phone call. Of the 49 I asked, so far, 31 responded with their answers. 4 politely turned me down due to their busy schedules. Another one turned me down because she didn’t feel like she could offer value in her answer.

26 responded with what inspires them. 5 with what frustrates them. All of whom I know has been through adversity and back.

Admittedly, the hardest part about this study was how I was going to organize all these responses. Unlike the one about time allocation I did over a month ago, where I knew exactly how to organize the data before I even got all the responses, this one, I really didn’t know how to best illustrate the candor everyone shared. In fact, I would be doing a disservice to them, if reduced their honesty and courage to be vulnerable to mere numbers. So, in the end, below, I let everyone speak for themselves. Sometimes, simplicity is the best.

Thank you to everyone who contributed to making this blog post happen, including Brad Feld, Mars Aguirre, Shayan Mehdi, Thomas Owen, Chris Lyons, Mark Leon, Jamarr Lampart, Christen Nino De Guzman, Louis Q Tran, Sam Marelich, Dr. Kris Marsh, Quincy Huynh, DJ Welch, Jimmy Yue, and many, many more heroes who helped me and the world around us behind the curtains.

Continue reading “#unfiltered #30 Inspiration and Frustration – The Honest Answers From Some of the Most Resilient People Going through a World of Uncertainty”
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#unfiltered #27 The Impetus of My Social Experiments – Higher Research and the Application to Startups

bunny, egg, curiosity, curious, social experiments

People seem to love origin stories – both in theatre and in life.

“How did it all start?”

“How did you get into this career?”

Or…

“How did you meet your wife/husband?”

And well, I can’t say I’m one to push back on that.

There’s something truly magical about “Once upon a time…”. And I’m no stranger to fairy tales. Growing up, I was largely influenced by older female cousins and family friends. As soon as our parents left to their wine-sipping adult gossip around a table of blackjack, my cousins and older female friends would drag us to watch their favorite Disney movies on the VCR, namely princess movies. I’m not exaggerating when I say I’ve seen Beauty and the Beast more than 100 times or Cinderella more than 50 times. In fact, my friends in elementary school would talk about their favorite movies – Transformers, LEGO Bionicles, Peter Pan, and Tarzan. Yet, mine was Disney’s 1998 Mulan.

And they all started with “Once upon a time…”

So, it was no surprise when friends, colleagues, and then strangers started asking me:

“How/when/why did you start hosting social experiments?”

Continue reading “#unfiltered #27 The Impetus of My Social Experiments – Higher Research and the Application to Startups”
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VCs = Gatekeepers?

vc gatekeepers, gate

Not too long ago, I had the fortune of chatting with a fascinating product mind. During our delightful conversation, she asked me:

Are VCs the gatekeepers of ideas?

…referencing Michael Seibel‘s recent string of tweets:

And I’m in complete accordance. I want to specifically underscore 2 of Michael’s sentences.

… and…

The only ‘exception’ to this ‘rule’ would be if investors themselves were the target market for the product. At the same time, I can see how the venture industry has led her and many others to believe otherwise. So I thought I’d elaborate more through this post.

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#unfiltered #21 The Recipe for Personal Growth – Thomas Keller’s Equation for Execution, The VC/Startup Parallel, Helping Others, La Recette Pour La Citron Pressé

lantern, personal growth, light

Over the weekend, I was brewing up some mad lemonade. ‘Cause well, that’s the summer thing to do. Since I’m limited in my expeditions outdoors, it’s just watching the sun skim over the horizon, blossoming its rose petals across the evening sky, in my backyard, sipping on homemade lemonade. If you’re curious about my recipe, I’ll include it at the bottom of this post.

When I’m cooking or performing acts of flavor mad science, I enjoy listening to food-related podcasts, like Kappy’s Beyond the Plate, Kappy’s CookTracks or Bon Appétit’s Foodcast. Unfortunately, all are on a temporary hiatus. So, I opted for the next best – YouTube videos. And recently, a curious video popped up in my Recommended feed. A 2010 TED Talk with Thomas Keller.

Thomas Keller. An individual probably best known, among many others, for his achievements with The French Laundry. Needless to say, I was enamored by his talk. But the fireworks in my head didn’t start going off until the 12:46 mark.

Continue reading “#unfiltered #21 The Recipe for Personal Growth – Thomas Keller’s Equation for Execution, The VC/Startup Parallel, Helping Others, La Recette Pour La Citron Pressé”
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