Three Outcomes

direction, option, outcome

Recently, I spent some time with friends where we ended up talking about career growth. One of whom was at a standstill of which opportunities to pursue if at all. But another of whom offered advice through a pair of interesting lens. One I felt interesting enough to reshare.

When you pursue a new opportunity, especially one where you have strong agency and potential autonomy to influence business outcomes, there are three possible outcomes during the duration of your role.

  1. Success
  2. Failure
  3. And not succeeding

Do note that failure and not succeeding are not the same thing. Failure is when you aim for something and it ends in a negative outcome. Not succeeding is after doing all you that you do, the outcome is still, give or take, the status quo. You haven’t moved the needle for the better or the worse.

At a smaller company, failure is oftentimes business closure. Not succeeding is either a small outcome or the evolution of a fast-growing startup to a lifestyle business with no noticeable impact on the industry. At a larger organization, failure is actually pretty hard. It could be the closure of a department, a re-organization, and very rarely, a negative inflection point for the business. More often than not, it’s not succeeding, which is just maintaining the status quo. Naturally, success is good regardless of organization size.

Failures are seen more charitably at smaller organizations. Larger organizations magnify the echo chamber and press. But in both worlds, they’re seen as your mark on the world. Evidence that you’ve tried. Not succeeding, on the other hand, is often worse at large organizations. Why? Because your career stalls. The more ambitious you are, the worse your career stalling will impact your career. The longer you stall, the harder it is to earn back the momentum. So unfortunately, the worst outcome an ambitious individual can get is not succeeding at a large organization. Death by a thousand cuts.

And the unfortunate truth is that large organizations have a lot of inertia. “Strategy tax” in the words of Bret Taylor. Or as a very senior allocator who recently left their large organization told me: “Some of these layers (at institutions) are there to sap the courage out of your investment decisions.” And you can easily delete the word “investment” out of that sentence.

If you fail or not succeed (not bad, not good), the liability of it not working is put on you the larger the organization. So you take on the tax, burden, career stall if the bad outcomes happen. If you fail at a smaller institution, no one blames you because you took a risk and tried your best and things didnโ€™t work out, they blame the institution.

Photo by Happy Lee on Unsplash


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The views expressed on this blogpost are for informational purposes only. None of the views expressed herein constitute legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Any allusions or references to funds or companies are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be relied upon as investment recommendations. Consult a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions.