Month: June 2022

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Bet On Just One Non-Obvious Founder

different, non-obvious founder

When your message lands in someone’s inbox, do they let out a sigh of relief – excited to click into that email – or are they dreading to click it open – knowing fully well that you may be tracking their open rate?

If you’re helpful, and I don’t mean that you think you’re helpful, you’ll get the former response. Communication, or for that matter, feedback and help, is not measured by what leaves your mouth, but by how much reaches the other person’s ears. If otherwise, you get the latter.

As the saying goes, a friend in need is a friend indeed. It is no less true in the world of startups. Your brand is built on times when others need you most. And there are two types of moments when others need you most:

  1. When they’re in deep shit, and
  2. When they’re an outsider.

The former needs no introduction.

There are 10-15 moments in a startup’s journey when shits hits the fan. And if you’re on speed dial when that happens, founders will remember you for life.

So, let me elaborate on the latter.

Insiders and outsiders

Who’s an insider? Insiders are:

  • Founders of unicorn startups
  • Early team members or executives at $1B+ companies
  • Investors who were some of the first ones to back at least one (ideally many) unicorn companies
  • Or best friends with at least one of the world’s top investors (or any of the above)

Who’s an outsider? Everyone else. That’s 99.99% of people out there. And I might be missing a few 9’s after the decimal.

Seedscout’s Mat Sherman wrote a great Twitter thread at the beginning of this year, one I’ve cited here and here about how founders who are outsiders can win at fundraising.

If you take the other side of the table as an investor, specifically an early-stage investor, our job is to increase the aperture at the top. We define the archetypes of founders who will get funded by downstream capital. We decide what the funnel looks like. Simply put, we decide what obvious looks like.

Helping one outsider become an insider

If you’re someone who’s excited about putting ‘investor’ on your resume and is willing to put in the legwork for at least a decade to become a great one… Frankly put, if you intend to make early-stage investing your career, then you need to bet one someone non-obvious. Just one. You don’t need to help every founder out there, but every founder you do promise your time to must be worth it.

To me, there are four obvious reasons to bet on one non-obvious founder:

  1. Brand: You’re building a long-term career in the venture space. This/these founders are going to be your reference checks when you raise a fund. And even if you don’t, the startup world is small. Gossip – both good and bad – travel fast. What makes or breaks a business is not in the capital, but in the people. Venture investing is in the business of people.
  2. Deal flow: When that founders’ teammates goes off to build their own businesses, they’ll remember what you did for the founder(s). As such, you’ll be the first person they call when they start great companies.
  3. Value-add: You gain tactical operational expertise. You learn the most when shit hits the fan, not when it’s smooth sailing.
  4. Empathy. You understand to your core what it’s like to build a business today, which will be invaluable in relating to and with founders. Founders you work with in the future know you are capable of being truly founder-friendly, and that it isn’t just lip service.

In closing

When you bet on one non-obvious founder, you don’t have to invest in them (although that would help your own track record). But you need to be on their speed dial. You need to be willing to pick up their calls on weekends and at 2AM in the morning.

It’s going to be tough. Not nearly as tough as being the founder her/himself, but still tough. And it might not go according to plan. In most cases, it doesn’t. But when that founder tries again. You’re there again. Eventually, with superhuman grit and persistence, both of you (and more) will get there.

That is how you build a brand in the world of venture capital. Something I’m personally working towards.

Photo by Mulyadi on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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The Superpower of Being Underestimated

underestimated, rejection, star

The Warriors went through one hell of a season. Even as someone who doesn’t live and breathe basketball, watching Stephen Curry this past season, especially during the finals with the Celtics was a thrill out of this world. He is undeniably one of the greats! Yet it’s fascinating to think that the world didn’t always see him as such. From being a 3-star recruit to the 256th-ranked player in 2006 to 7th pick in 2009, Curry’s gone a long way.

Though he recently won an Academy Award for Best Original Score for his music on Dune, Hans Zimmer‘s early music career was not easy. He had been thrown out of eight schools and only had two weeks of piano lessons. Yet today he is undeniably one of the greatest composers of our time.

Comment
byu/realhanszimmer from discussion
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Source: Hans Zimmer’s Reddit AMA

When Stan Lee first pitched Spider-Man, his publisher thought it was “the worst idea I have ever heard.” The publisher himself told one of the greatest storytellers: “First of all, people hate spiders, so you can’t call a book Spider-Man. Secondly he can’t be a teenager—teenagers can only be sidekicks. And third, he can’t have personal problems if he’s supposed to be a superhero—don’t you know who a superhero is?'” The rest… is history.

In the making of Star Wars, George Lucas was rejected time and time again – from Disney to United Artists to Universal. And the one bet that 20th Century Fox took on him was for only a budget of $8M, that eventually became a $10M budget, when at the time, the best blockbuster films all had budgets of $20-30M. Yet, today Star Wars stands as one of the greatest cultural assets of the 20th and 21st century.

In the world of startups, the world’s most valuable companies are worth more than four times and raised half as much as the world’s most funded companies. Funding, in many ways, is a proxy for investor optimism in the early days that this company will be the next big thing. But investors, like any other person, can be wrong. In fact, startup investors are often wrong more often than they’re right. But it also goes to say the world’s best companies are non-obvious, in the non-consensus. In other words, underestimated.

Source: Founder Collective

As the above graphic shows, even if one picks right, we still grossly underestimate the potential of outliers. After all, humans are terrible at tracking nonlinearities:

  • In 2012, Canva was rejected by over 100 Silicon Valley investors. Now it is a growing $40 billion business of gargantuan proportions.
  • The Post-it note was an result of a failed experiment to create stronger adhesives. But Dr. Spencer Silver, its inventor, kept at it, which led to his nickname as “Mr. Persistent” because he wouldn’t give up. Today, Post-it notes are sold in more than 100 countries, and over 50 billion are produced every year.
  • Google, one of the most recognizable names today, struggled to raise capital and find customers in the early days. Who needed another search engine? For 1.5 years, every search company approached by Larry and Sergey to consider Google’s tech turned them down. The pair funded Google on their credit cards and couldn’t even afford to hire a designer so regressed to minimalism.
  • Tope Awotona, founder of Calendly, started three failed businesses and emptied his 401k to fund Calendly. Yet despite his hustle and persistence, most VCs he talked to turned him down. Despite starting in 2013, it wasn’t till 2021 that Calendly had their A-round. Calendly took much longer to get the attention of external funding than many of its counterparts. The company is now one of the most popular scheduling tools and worth $3B.

But even when people got it right, they still underestimated the upside.

  • Even when Kleiner eventually backed Google, legendary investor John Doerr couldn’t believe it when Larry Page believed that Google could get revenues of $10B.
  • When Bessemer invested in Shopify, Bessemer thought that the best possible outcome for Shopify was a 3% chance of the company exiting at $400M. As of the time of this essay, it’s worth over 100 times more with a market cap of $43B.
  • If you invested in Amazon on the first day in 1998 at $5, most people would have sold at $85 in 1999 – a 17x in less than two years. But if they held to today, they would have made a multiple north of 600x. That said, selling itself is more of an art than a science.

… And the list goes on.

As Warren Buffett says, “the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Our fallacy with estimation is painfully obvious in hindsight, but dubitably unclear in foresight.

Early on in my venture career, an investor once told me a profound statement. One that I still remember to this day. The best ideas – and often the leaders of tomorrow – often seem crazy at first. And because they’re crazy, they’re nonobvious. They’re in the non-consensus.

As Steve Jobs says, “the ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.” The world’s most transformative individuals and businesses take on many more headwinds than those optimizing for local maxima. But history shows us that those that dream big consistently outperform those optimizing for marginal improvement. While there is nothing wrong with the latter, I hope the above anecdotes serve as a reminder rejection is not a sign of failure. Rather, it’s a sign that most people have yet to see what you see.

Your job is to teach them to see what you see. After all, the only difference between a hallucination and a vision is that other people can see a vision.

Photo by Aziz Acharki on Unsplash

Edit: Added in Stan Lee’s story.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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How Do You Know It’s Time To Let Go?

alone

I’ve been asked by many founders over the years, “How do I know it’s time to let it go?” And every single person asks me for some length of time. When I tell them I don’t have an “optimal” length of time that would do the question justice, they ask: “When do you usually see other founders you work with let go?” To which, the answer spans as far as the Pacific Ocean. I’ve known folks who work on it for six months before they called it quits. Others for seven years, without external validation. And then some who continue at it past the decade.

Who’s right? Who’s wrong? If I were to be honest, I don’t know. Rather I’ve always believed the independent variable here shouldn’t be time, but rather your emotional state. I’ll elaborate.

The “ideal” emotion to quit with

There’s a timeless apologue about a boiling frog. If you put a frog in boiling water, it’ll jump straight out. But if you put a frog in lukewarm water and slowly increase the heat, it won’t realize it’s dying until it’s too late. It goes to say that the more time you spend in the forest, the harder it is to see the forest itself. As such, this essay is for everyone who is stuck in the forest.

Andy Rachleff of Benchmark and Wealthfront fame has this great line. “I’d love to kill it and I’d hate to kill it. You know that emotion is exactly the emotion you feel when it’s time to shut it down.”

I really love this line because loving to kill something and hating to kill something are on two sides of a spectrum. Oftentimes, if you’d love to kill something, that means you haven’t spent enough time on it. It’s easy to give up on something you care little to nothing about. On the flip side, if you’d hate to kill something, you’ve spent too long on it. Often, an example of sunk cost fallacy. And it’s when these two distinct emotions meet at twilight that you know you’ve put your best effort in. It’s when you feel both of these emotions simultaneously that you can finally let it go.

As I rounding out this blogpost, I thought I’d post on Twitter to tap into the world’s greatest minds alive on Monday. And when my friend Sara shared the below line, I knew she had something better. Something I did not know that I would be remiss not to double click on.

So I did. And I promise the next few paragraphs from deep within Sara’s mind will change the way you think about quitting.

“You’re not a quitter, but you needed to quit a long time ago.”

“One of the things I learned over the years is that your intuition is probably right. It’s hard to trust though, especially when there is a lot of chaos or noise. Anything unstable from market turbulence to a toxic relationship creates that noise. You need to find quiet time to let your mind relax enough to think clearly. 

 “Sometimes if you’re anxious, it is hard to be in a spot that’s quiet or still. Don’t feel obligated to be in Zen meditation mode. Personally, I’m not someone who can be still. Instead, I find my quiet time when I walk and think around the water, where I live a block from.

“When I find myself caught between a rock and a hard place, I find myself asking the below questions with neither judgement, shame or guilt:

“If this problem was a house fire, what is my first instinct? If I stay, am I going to get swallowed up in it? Do I want to get a hose to put it out or do I want to add gasoline to it?

“If the answer is gasoline, is it because you’re beyond frustrated? If the reaction is to dump more gasoline, roast marshmallows, and walk away, that means it’s the point of no return. It’s time to quit or bring in someone else to get a fresh perspective. In these situations, the individuals involved tend to want to pick fights out of frustration. They’re combative. They can’t see any way through the problem, and they’re exhausted. It’s time to step away at least temporarily.

“In scenario two, if I’m just sitting there and watching the fire burn while I think about it, I’m stuck in indecision. Create a list of pros and cons, and really think critically about it. If you’re in a team situation, you need to figure out where the rest of your team stands and what the core problem is that needs to be solved in order to be successful. Sometimes it’s a team shift. It’s just one person who wants to call it quits, and the others want to keep going. If you’re in a relationship, you need to be completely honest with yourself and each other about what you both need to do to get things back on track and if you actually want to. The hard part about a slow burn is if you just stay stuck, you have a hard time recognizing when it’s too late.

“Thirdly, there’s the situation where I am motivated to look for the hose. I want to fight the fire. You need to think about what you actually need to do in order to fix the problem. If you’re short on capital, can you extend your runway? Be it sales, outside capital, or cutting your burn. If you’re short on talent, can you bring in world-class talent? Other times, you need to ask yourself does the market really need your product in its current iteration? You need to be really honest and look at it from a third-party perspective. If you don’t know how to fix it, you can always ask others for help. It might not seem like it, but most people are willing to help. 

“The takeaway from all of this is that you have to suspend your own judgment and ego. You have to be honest with yourself. The right answer is usually the first answer. Trust your gut with what’s right.

“Sometimes the honesty will hurt. If you’re running a company, at some point, that might mean you might not be the right CEO for your company anymore.”

In closing

The hardest parts about building anything – be it a house, business, relationship, career, family, or passion – are starting it… and ending it. If most people had to pick, they’d say the former is more difficult than the latter. But if you truly love or loved someone or something, the latter is always more difficult. And while the above may not solve all your problems, I hope when the nights are the darkest, that Andy and Sara’s thoughts may light the way.

Photo by Alex McCarthy on Unsplash

Thank you Sara for sharing your thoughts with the broader world!

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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#unfiltered #67 How To Make Writing Easy For Those Struggling

writing

A founder looking to write more long-form recently asked me, “What does your writing process look like?” As I was sharing my long answer to her short question, I realized, “Holy f**k, my writing process sure has evolved over the past few years.” In an effort to encase my current thoughts in amber, I find myself transcribing thoughts from gray matter to illegible scribblings. And from a 180-grams-per-meter-squared canvas to a two-dimensional electronic screen once again.

A trip down memory lane

I remember when my friend first asked me, “How are you able to commit to a weekly writing schedule? Aren’t you busy enough?” And I shared a secret with him. Something that one of my mentors shared with me.

Before officially starting my blog, I wrote 10 essays – a Plan B in case I ever went through a dry spell. Knowing I had the comfort of a cheat week and still having content to put out gave me the courage to continue writing every week. Almost three years later, of those 10 initial pieces, I’ve only two of the afore-mentioned. In the world of content creation, there’s a massive graveyard of creators who never make it past 10 pieces of content – be it blogposts, podcast episodes, YouTube videos, and so on. I would know. I started 3 blogs before this one. For each of the three prior to this one, I have an epitaph that made it to five or less posts.

The evolution of process

In my first year, I usually spent time conceiving a blogpost at night when I found myself to be the most creative, and editing the same one in the morning before the rooster cried to the awakening sun, when I found myself free of distraction and in peak efficiency. Yet despite a greatly industrialized process, one consistent theme throughout 2019 and 2020 was regret from publishing an essay too soon. There were multiple cases where I’d stumble on new, yet relevant information often within hours of publishing. In fact, this gnawing yarn of remorse reached such a level of prowess that I was re-editing blogposts by the paragraph on a monthly basis. Sorry to all of my early subscribers. Good news is you have your very own limited edition copies of David-jumped-the gun-again.

And so I started delaying my publishing schedules – to account for this sense of continual regret. In my current phase, I break down writing into three phases:

  1. Time to create
  2. Time to ruminate
  3. Time to edit

Time to create

One of my friends once told me the secret to creativity is to “give your brain time to be bored.” DJ, one of the most creative people I know, having worked to create some of the most iconic animations we know today during his time at Cartoon Network and Lucasfilm, and now a YouTuber with over half a million subscribed, once shared with me, “Creativity is a residue of time wasted.”

When I asked him to unpack that statement, he said, “Good ideas are gifts from the universe – fish that swim in that river. All you have to do is learn how to reach up and fish for them. And just like fishing, if you stick around long enough – if you’re patient enough, you’ll be able to catch a few. But you never know what fish you’ll reel in. Just that you will.”

And he’s right. The more time you spend moving or doing, the less bandwidth your brain has to explore new possibilities. The nuance here is not to block some amount of time every day to ideate. In fact, if you’ll allow me to be brutally honest, while it is giving yourself time to be bored, it’s too structured. And by definition, creativity, like DJ mentioned, is unstructured thinking. Subsequently, blocked time often creates unnecessary stress and anxiety to create. Especially when your mind is drawing blanks and you’re on a clock.

Instead, allocate time immediately after your brain has been given 10 or more minutes to be bored. For example, after you take a shower. Or go on a 30-minute run. Or a 20-minute power nap. Simply, even going on a 20+ minute walk helps your brain re-center and refresh. And always, always write down your ideas. No matter how awesome or lame you think it is. The more you practice the art of ideating, the more consistently better your ideas will be. Not saying that I’m the most creative person out there, but I still have “trash” ideas every so often, but at a far less frequency than when I started.

Time to ruminate

If you’ve ever bought a new car – for the sake of this essay, a black Toyota Camry – as soon as you buy it, you start noticing more black Toyota Camry’s on the street. In fact, you’ll start being able to identify the 2022 versions versus the 2021 or the 2016 ones. A combination of recency bias and confirmation bias. The same holds if you go to a new restaurant, you’ll start noticing that it pops up more in conversations with friends or as you’re scrolling through Instagram.

On the same side of the token, once you seed an idea in your brain (or better, on paper), you start realizing, there is more content and discourse in the world about said idea than you once thought. In the time I spend between creating and editing, I stumble upon or (re)discover articles, podcasts, conversations, experts in my network, just to name a few, when I give my brain time to ruminate.

I like to visualize the scene from Ratatouille when Remy is savoring the individual and collective flavors of the strawberry and cheese, unlike his brother Emile who gorges food down without a second thought. Whereas Emile loses the magic of culinary world, Remy sees what no rat has been able to enjoy prior. Simply put, be Remy! Savor your thoughts.

Time to edit

For me, editing has become the easiest, yet hardest part of writing. All I have to do is string together words and thoughts. I have all the biggest pieces on paper already, but formatting, grammar, punctuation, you name it, feels just like busy work, especially where there are so many more productive things I could be doing.

So, time to edit is akin to time to be inspired. As such, there are two takeaways I’ve learned about myself over the past three years:

  1. I edit in the early morning or late at night. No one will ping me (usually). There is no urgency to respond. Simply, no distractions.
  2. I have a Google doc (which I might share one day, but as of now, it’s a hot mess) that includes all the pieces of content that has, in the past, inspired me to feel a distinct emotion. I use this library of emotions when the content I am creating (blogpost, email, pitch deck feedback, replying to a friend who’s in a rut) requires empathy. For example…
    1. If I want to feel sad, Thai life insurance commercials are my go-to 5-minute sadness augmenters. Here’s one of my favorites.
    2. For insecurity, I like to revisit Neil Gaiman’s short blogpost on imposter syndrome.
    3. For pure inspiration and drive, Remember the Name or any of Eminem’s songs.

In closing

While I don’t timebox myself in this 3-step process, on average, writing a blogpost takes me about two to three weeks. In case your curious, any blogpost where I lead with a sentence that includes “recently” instead of a set time probably took a few weeks to come to fruition.

In effect, writing never feels like a chore. Rather, it’s inspired. Inspiring. Uplifting. And de-stressing.

Photo by John Jennings on Unsplash

#unfiltered is a series where I share my raw thoughts and unfiltered commentary about anything and everything. It’s not designed to go down smoothly like the best cup of cappuccino you’ve ever had (although here‘s where I found mine), more like the lonely coffee bean still struggling to find its identity (which also may one day find its way into a more thesis-driven blogpost). Who knows? The possibilities are endless.

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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The Thing About Liquidation Preferences

rock climbing, risk

Given the impending, potentially larger market correction, I’ve been thinking a lot about liquidation preferences recently. And it seems I’m not the only one.

Keith Rabois also responded:

What I’m seeing

I’ve seen three major trends over the past two months:

  1. Founders are raising on smaller multiples compared to the last round. Investors argue it’s come back to the fundamentals. Founders say it’s the market conditions. Regardless, we won’t see the same 2020 and 2021 multiples in the near future.
  2. If a startup is still growing and is cash efficient, valuations won’t have changed as drastically. David Sacks put it best when he said that founders are still going to get well-funded, if they’re:
    1. Doubling at least year-over-year.
    2. Have good margins start at 50%.
    3. CAC payback periods are a year or less.
    4. Have a burn multiple of 1 or less.
  3. Cash is king. We’ve seen it in the news all of last month. Founders are extending their runways, by reducing burn. As Marc Andreessen said 1.5 months ago, “The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more.” Companies are buckling in for 18-24 month runways, if not longer.

So what?

That goes to say, if a startup isn’t growing as expected, has a high burn, AND still wants to raise an up-round a year out of their last raise, investors are adding in more downside protection provisions. Anti-dilution provisions, minimum hurdle rate expectations, blocks on IPO or M&A opportunities, and liquidation preferences. What Bill Gurley and some VCs call the “dirty term sheet.”

Now I know there’s nuance and reason behind why liquidation preferences were created. To align incentives between the founder and investor. It stops a founder from immediately “selling the business” as soon as the money is in the bank, as Matt Levine mentioned in the above tweet. It also leads to a lower fair market value in a 409a valuation as both Matt and Keith mentioned as well. A net positive for employees, who are looking for lower strike prices to exercise their options in the future.

But as an aggregate, it seems liquidation preferences are really a strategy not to lose rather than a strategy to win. Not just the 1x liquidation preference, but the 2-3x liquidation preferences I’ve been seeing in the side letters offered by VCs.

To put it into context, that means investors get 2-3x their money back before the founders and everyone else gets theirs. By the same token, investors believe that same startup is worth at least 2-3x the money they gave the founders. Again, downside protection.

How does venture differ from other asset classes?

Unlike real estate or public market stocks or bonds, venture capital is a hit-driven business. Success is not measured by percentages, but rather by multiples. High risk, high return.

In a successful venture portfolio of 50 companies, 49 could theoretically be a tax write-off, if one makes you 200 times your capital, you’ve quadrupled your fund. A respectable return for a seed stage fund. As such, liquidation preferences have little impact on fund returns. If you’ve done venture right, your biggest winners account 90% of the fund’s returns. And they are the best pieces of evidence you can use to raise a subsequent fund. Your fund returners are the greatest determinants of your ability to raise the next fund, not how much money you saved after making a bad bet. No one cares if you got your dollar back for dollars you’ve invested towards the bottom of your portfolio, or even 50 cents back on every dollar.

And when a startup wildly succeeds, liquidation preferences don’t matter since everyone is getting a massive check in the mail, far exceeding any downside protection provisions.

In closing

Of course, as always, I might be missing something here, but preferred shares feel like a vestigial part of venture capital – thanks to our history with other financial services businesses.

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Stay up to date with the weekly cup of cognitive adventures inside venture capital and startups, as well as cataloging the history of tomorrow through the bookmarks of yesterday!

Any views expressed on this blog are mine and mine alone. They are not a representation of values held by On Deck, DECODE, or any other entity I am or have been associated with. They are for informational and entertainment purposes only. None of this is legal, investment, business, or tax advice. Please do your own diligence before investing in startups and consult your own adviser before making any investments.

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